BYU network isn't basic tier anywhere but Provo as I understand it. Even in SLC, U of Utah has like 80% market share of college football fans. BYU TV is available for a fee on Satellite, and contains religious programming as well as sports. So it is presumably frequently purchased by LDS members.
This is one of the reasons I predicted UConn, Cinci, Houston and a Florida school. The Honor Code thing pushed it further. BYU needs that network to promote its primary mission. It needs the sports to help make it viable. The Big 12 as it is, with T3 rights going back to the schools, works pretty well. If they pursue a digital network, BYU may not be able to participate at all, or would be like UT (road games only).
It is almost comical that these "experts" look at BYU and see a very strong football program, with great fan attendance, a well known brand and a solid hoops team as well and say, they are the clear favorite. They ignore:
- BYU network issues noted above
- Honor Code issues
- Private religious school (see Baylor) not a cultural fit
- Sunday play
- Distance from the league (almsot as far as UConn, and more if there is other expansion east)
- Weak TV market penetration, even in SLC. Mountain time stinks for TV.
BYU has some serious hurdles to overcome. They may do it, but it's not the slam dunk everyone keeps suggesting.