The most likely result of additional expansion is the termination of our current contract. There's no reason for ESPN not to blow it up - they would have all the leverage in putting something cheaper with less exposure requirements back together. The idea that ESPN would cut a side-deal with UConn doesn't make a lot of sense for them and it probably wouldn't pass muster with our partners...the other members of the American. We're not an independent and cannot act as one.
Maybe we have enough sway in that shamble of a conference to part out the third tier, but I would advise not to expect a silver lining should the Big 12 expand without us. It's probably the last expansion move for the next decade.
I think you're probably right, RE: ESPN would blow the contract up.
However, I don't know that it is inconceivable that ESPN wouldn't cut a side deal with UConn. Current AAC TV deal w/ESPN is worth $126/7 years. Navy retains their own TV rights from what I understand, so that pie is split 11 ways.
Basically comes out to about $1.6 million per year per school.
Now let's say we lose two non-UConn members. ESPN blows the deal up, reduces the exposure and cuts the payout in half. At that point the schools are now earning about $800K per year under the new deal. ESPN would be saving $8.8 million per year moving forward.
UConn sports, which posts higher overnight numbers in BBall and Football consistently than most of the highest-profile G5 match ups, comes in and says if you keep our exposure level at pre-Big 12 expansion numbers and cut us a deal for $1M a year. That sounds like a pretty good deal to me, no?
Now this all presupposes that somehow UConn can pry our media rights away from The American, which as long as we are committed to playing D1 football, I don't know how that happens (because the threat of joining the Big East is hollow without a football home).
I know it's a lot of hypotheticals, but I don't think ESPN would outright say no to a side deal with UConn if somehow we could get our rights back.