IOWA -2.5

[Geew1992]

Kiah Chiming in

 

[bballnut90]

Keys to the game for each team IMO:

UCONN:
-Nika Muhl can't get into foul trouble. She matches up well defensively with Clark and flustered her last year. Clark will get hers but if Muhl can disrupt some of Clark's passing and force her to shoot under 45%, it's advantage UCONN.
-Perimeter shooting outside of Bueckers has to come through. Whether it's Shade/Muhl/Arnold or Ice Brady nailing corner 3s, players need to make shots to keep up with Iowa's offense.

Iowa:
-Gabby Marshall has to hit shots. She's shot well to finish the season, but it has to continue. Hitting 2-3 triples could be a big difference maker for Iowa. Her ability to space the floor opens up lanes for players to cut and for Clark to drive.
-Iowa has to win the rebounding battle. They don't have size but Clark, Affolter, Stuehlke and Martin are terrific rebounders and they'll need to capitalize on UCONN not being a strong rebounding team and win this battle.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

Early line.

I don't know what that means. Not being a gambler, what is "BPI", and how does that give a percentage chance of winning?

 

[FormerCTrez]

If that is correct UConn will lose by 20. The only way it gets to that level is if CC goes crazy and UConn forget how to play defense and that IS NOT going to happen. UConn matches up better with Iowa than any other team they have played this season and that doesn't bode will for Iowa. UConn will win and I don't expect it to be within a couple points.

Please correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t the under/over total of 163 points referred to last night’s E8 game, and not the FF? Or am I getting all these numbers jumbled in my head?

 

[Topsail]

we can hope that Iowa shoots 5/22 from 3 like they did against W Virginia then we will win no problem .

 

[azfan]

Or at least one of them.

Wonder which one?

 

[Fore!]

Our last two games vs. Iowa.
UConn wins 92:72 in 2021
UConn wins 86:79 in 2022

I like our chances!

Unfortunately, different teams; also, CC has become a much improved player.

 

[Heytherego]

Of course, I’m pulling for UConn to win but it’s pretty clear this team (Iowa) is greatly improved everywhere but in the post. Czinano was a force in those earlier teams and is now gone. The guards around Clark are much better and will make this game more competitive than the previous ones.

Stuelke is not a bad post player, she brings a different skill set than Czinano. She runs the floor extremely well and is a nice complement to Clark

 

[mhshuskies]

Stuelke is not a bad post player, she brings a different skill set than Czinano. She runs the floor extremely well and is a nice complement to Clark

But she no AE!

 

[JoePgh]

They’re sort of like Creighton but with an offensive superstar added in. But Nika knows how to defend Caitlyn.

Exactly! Except for Clark, the Iowa team is a pretty good Big East team -- not big or overly athletic, but well-coached, smart, and experienced. If you can imagine what (Creighton, Marquette, Villanova) would be if Caitlin Clark parachuted onto their roster, that is Iowa.

In a way, that's what Villanova was like a year ago, when Maddy Siegrist was on their roster. No, Maddy is not Caitlin Clark, but she was good enough to be a high first-round WNBA pick a year ago. UConn handled last year's Villanova team multiple times without breaking too much of a sweat (although the first game was close).

 

[Charliebball]

we can hope that Iowa shoots 5/22 from 3 like they did against W Virginia then we will win no problem .

unless UConn does too...........

 

[SLY63]

I think we need limit open looks for the supporting cast. I'd give Clark 35 point, but limit the others. We could put up 80 points.

 

[Hamms30]

I like our chances. CC is the catalyst of that offense. Keep her under pressure and dribbling instead of her having 5 feet of space to scan the whole court and pass or pull up. She's an incredible talent, but she's not invincible. I haven't seen her play a ton of defense either.. so whoever she's guarding.. attack her.

 

[hussybulldog]

Who is easier to guard against for UConn, JuJu or CC? I think JuJu’s height was difficult … UConn has a better chance with CC. But foul trouble could be something hard to overcome.

 

[Pharos]

Box and 1?

 

[Bone Dog]

Maybe Caitlin, Bone Dog?

By the way, they're sort of like Creighton how?

I suspect Nika might find Caitlin a different player, emotionally and especially physically, than 18 months ago.

1. I go with the spelling my AI gives me. It’s not worth the trouble to argue with SkyNet.
2. They’re like Creighton in that they aren’t real big in the post. No one bigger than Aaliyah. And they scrap for loose balls. Gabby Marshall could fit right in at Creighton.
3. … and Nika has remained perfectly static over 18 months?

 

[ABCDFE]

Iowa is the smartest team that UConn will face this season. They move well and their #2 and #3 players have scored over 20 points each this past game. That's at least 3 top scorers. They play fast and run all game. They are similar in height and athletics. They are more experienced across the board. IMHO it will be a close game. A "who has the ball last" type of game. UConn defense is stronger, but Iowa shooters have been a little more consistent recently. Go UConn!

correct. It will come down to how many points KK and Ash can score. Aaliyah and Paige should get theirs, Nika should hit a couple of threes. If Ash and KK can give us 25 points total we have a chance. But that's asking a lot from KK and Ash, especially from what I've seen from Shade the last two games. However, I feel better about matching up against Iowa vs. LSU.

 

[Heytherego]

Who is easier to guard against for UConn, JuJu or CC? I think JuJu’s height was difficult … UConn has a better chance with CC. But foul trouble could be something hard to overcome.

I agree Juju seems like a harder matchup. She’s tall and strong and has a midrange game. She obviously doesn’t have the 3 point limit CC does. CC has no midrange game, she either pulls a 3 or does a layup, she doesn’t seem to like shooting the midrange or floaters either.

 

[TN-Gamecock]

I think we need limit open looks for the supporting cast. I'd give Clark 35 point, but limit the others. We could put up 80 points.

That's just it. Caitlin has never had a great supporting cast around her. She makes those around her better. If Iowa had Cameron Brink or Reagan Beers in the post/pf position, Iowa would be a much stronger team. I think Iowa is just 6'5" superstar away from top dawg.

 

[MSGRET]

Iowa is the smartest team that UConn will face this season. They move well and their #2 and #3 players have scored over 20 points each this past game. That's at least 3 top scorers. They play fast and run all game. They are similar in height and athletics. They are more experienced across the board. IMHO it will be a close game. A "who has the ball last" type of game. UConn defense is stronger, but Iowa shooters have been a little more consistent recently. Go UConn!

Actually they have only had two players beside Clark score more than 20 points in a game over the past 5 games. Hannah Steulke scored 25 in the overtime win against Nebraska in the Big 10 title game. Kate Martin scored 21 against LSU in the Regional Final game. The only player to score 20+ points every game is Clark.

 

[Cornell Lt]

UConn will have to continually make Catlin play defense, which is the weakest part of her game, and hope foul trouble comes into play

 

[Bigboote]

I think we need limit open looks for the supporting cast. I'd give Clark 35 point, but limit the others. We could put up 80 points.

That’s what LSU did last night. Put Nika on Caitlin much of the time and Paige on her some of the time. Make her life difficult and give her different looks. She’s not just a scorer, she’s their main facilitator and the heartbeat of their offense. Make her life difficult, the team’s life is difficult.

 

[The deacon]

But she no AE!

Not yet, but she's closing fast... she was the Big Ten Sixth Player of the year in '22-23 as a freshman, had 47 points vs. a competitive Penn State team this winter and scored 25 points in the Big Ten tournament championship game.

 

[The deacon]

1. I go with the spelling my AI gives me. It’s not worth the trouble to argue with SkyNet.
2. They’re like Creighton in that they aren’t real big in the post. No one bigger than Aaliyah. And they scrap for loose balls. Gabby Marshall could fit right in at Creighton.
3. … and Nika has remained perfectly static over 18 months?

I'm sorry to hear that, Bone Dog. I always feel the effort to spell a person's name correctly is well worth it.

Agreed with those points.

I'd never call Nika static in any regard, but to me, the improvement she's made in the last 18 months has been as a slightly more willing shooter, which isn't necessarily relevant here.

 

[The deacon]

I agree Juju seems like a harder matchup. She’s tall and strong and has a midrange game. She obviously doesn’t have the 3 point limit CC does. CC has no midrange game, she either pulls a 3 or does a layup, she doesn’t seem to like shooting the midrange or floaters either.

JuJu finished her season shooting 17 of 57 over the last two games. Let her shoot!