First Committee Top 16

[Nuyoika]

Where was the drama supposed to come from in January?

Last year, Notre Dame, South Carolina, and Baylor were all heavily favored to get to the Final Four. ND and SC each had lost to no one except UConn, and Baylor had lost only one game without Niya Johnson. And people thought that if there was going to be a spoiler to the #1 seeds, it would be Maryland.

I am still pissed at Brenda for that.... she completely DESTROYED my bracket... I suppose I am restless. Other than the PAC 12 I don't think there's any doubt who is winning each of the major conferences. I thought this year there would be more surprises. I have been pleased with some of the new comers to the top 25 but I just don't feel like this years Top 25 is as good or deep as last years if that makes any sense. I began the year thinking there's like 12 true teams who have the stuff to win it all. Each month I am less sure about that.

 

[Alydar]

If MD was being punished for their OOC schedule what about MSSt, a team who's OOC schedule include exactly 2 Massey top 50 teams?

 

[Plebe]

I am still pissed at Brenda for that.... she completely DESTROYED my bracket... I suppose I am restless. Other than the PAC 12 I don't think there's any doubt who is winning each of the major conferences. I thought this year there would be more surprises. I have been pleased with some of the new comers to the top 25 but I just don't feel like this years Top 25 is as good or deep as last years if that makes any sense. I began the year thinking there's like 12 true teams who have the stuff to win it all. Each month I am less sure about that.

I think that hegemony in the ACC is far from established at this point.

I think Mississippi State has been a pleasant surprise. I didn't even think they'd be a top-10 team, but they clearly are. Oregon State has also exceeded most people's expectations. So has Duke. And for teams that have "surprised" us by underperforming relative to expectations, we have the likes of Ohio State, Syracuse, and Tennessee.

 

[Nuyoika]

If MD was being punished for their OOC schedule what about MSSt, a team who's OOC schedule include exactly 2 Massey top 50 teams?

Is their overall SOS better than Marylands? It may be because they play in the SEC..."the toughest conference in America" and so on and so forth. You have to remember you can get away with scheduling cupcakes in OOC if your conference RPI is good. Just ask Mulkey she has the exact formula for this somewhere in a safe. You just gotta know which years to do it.

 

[Alydar]

Is their overall SOS better than Marylands? It may be because they play in the SEC..."the toughest conference in America" and so on and so forth. You have to remember you can get away with scheduling cupcakes in OOC if your conference RPI is good. Just ask Mulkey she has the exact formula for this somewhere in a safe. You just gotta know which years to do it.

I agree with you but when people start using words like punish it should be about things those being punished have some control over. Teams don't get to pick their conference. For all the teams they get into the dance the SEC never gets too many past the second round. And IMO when it comes to seeding the top 16 a team's record against each other a key factor should be how they did vs each other.

 

[CocoHusky]

I agree with you but when people start using words like punish it should be about things those being punished have some control over. Teams don't get to pick their conference. For all the teams they get into the dance the SEC never gets too many past the second round. And IMO when it comes to seeding the top 16 a team's record against each other a key factor should be how they did vs each other.

The punishment was specifically for the out of conference schedule. Teams have full control over their out of conference schedule. MD when out of their way to play a joke of a schedule including
UMass Lowell
Maryland Eastern Shore
Mount St. Mary's
Niagara
UMBC
Towson
Saint Peter's
Loyola (Md.)

 

[Vowelguy]

Before last night, Miss St was #4 in RPI. Maryland #18.

 

[Plebe]

If MD was being punished for their OOC schedule what about MSSt, a team who's OOC schedule include exactly 2 Massey top 50 teams?

Nonconference SOS: Maryland #152, Miss St #59
Overall SOS: Maryland #85, Miss St #22

MSU's OOC was not a lot to brag about but it was still better than Maryland's by a long country mile. Also, MSU plays in a much tougher conference than Maryland does.

 

[triaddukefan]

I think that hegemony in the ACC is far from established at this point.

I think Mississippi State has been a pleasant surprise. I didn't even think they'd be a top-10 team, but they clearly are. Oregon State has also exceeded most people's expectations. So has Duke. And for teams that have "surprised" us by underperforming relative to expectations, we have the likes of Ohio State, Syracuse, and Tennessee.

Along way to go in the regular season, but I thought Syracuse would be about 5th in the ACC. And you are correct... the race for the ACC is far from over. NC State has the tiebreaker over ND, FSU, and Duke.

 

[Alydar]

Nonconference SOS: Maryland #152, Miss St #59
Overall SOS: Maryland #85, Miss St #22

MSU's OOC was not a lot to brag about but it was still better than Maryland's by a long country mile. Also, MSU plays in a much tougher conference than Maryland does.

MD beat Ariz St on a neutral court and beat Louisville on the road. And they stayed within 10 against UConn. Miss St beat Texas at home and lost the only quality team they faced on the road. They both beat everyone else and IMO all those games are meaningless in determining who is the better team. Massey ranks MD 6th and Miss St 7th virtually tied by the numbers. They use an algorithm so there is no prejudice toward any conference. Now I am not saying how each should be seeded but making MSSt a one seed while making MD a three seed is way too big a gap.

SOS is not much of a measure of a team's strength. It's fine to break a tie between two teams but my eyes tell me that MD is a better team than even S Carolina, never mind Miss St. Don't let a close game between two SEC teams fool you. MD's offense would defeat Miss St's defense. Remember, most everyone thought they had a dominant defense last year, mostly based on the rest of the SEC not being able to score against them. But we all saw that paper tiger exposed in the S16.

Many are buying what ESPN said, that MD was downgraded because of their schedule. But remember that ESPN has a vested interest in seeing SEC teams in the spotlight and little interest in having teams whose games are on BTN or the PAC12 Network be in the spotlight.

 

[Plebe]

MD beat Ariz St on a neutral court and beat Louisville on the road. And they stayed within 10 against UConn. Miss St beat Texas at home and lost the only quality team they faced on the road. They both beat everyone else and IMO all those games are meaningless in determining who is the better team. Massey ranks MD 6th and Miss St 7th virtually tied by the numbers. They use an algorithm so there is no prejudice toward any conference. Now I am not saying how each should be seeded but making MSSt a one seed while making MD a three seed is way too big a gap.

SOS is not much of a measure of a team's strength. It's fine to break a tie between two teams but my eyes tell me that MD is a better team than even S Carolina, never mind Miss St. Don't let a close game between two SEC teams fool you. MD's offense would defeat Miss St's defense. Remember, most everyone thought they had a dominant defense last year, mostly based on the rest of the SEC not being able to score against them. But we all saw that paper tiger exposed in the S16.

Many are buying what ESPN said, that MD was downgraded because of their schedule. But remember that ESPN has a vested interest in seeing SEC teams in the spotlight and little interest in having teams whose games are on BTN or the PAC12 Network be in the spotlight.

SOS by itself is not meant to be a measure of a team's strength, obviously. No one is saying that it is. But it is a major factor in evaluating the strength of a team's résumé, which is what the committee does. You may not agree that it should be a factor, but it is.

I simply don't buy this notion that the selection committee is intentionally bending its decisions to ESPN's commercial interests in certain conferences over others. There is absolutely no evidence of this. If that were the case, how did Maryland land a #1 seed in 2015? (Hint: Maryland's nonconference SOS that year was #9, and its overall SOS #16, to go with a 30-2 record.)

 

[StephStorrs]

I do have one question, and I mean no harm when I ask. (I'm not nearly as well informed on the ins and outs of the selection and seeding process for the tournament as other posters on the yard, so I'm simply trying to gain a bit of insight.) If a team, such as MD, schedules an extremely weak nonconference schedule and faces no serious competition during conference play, why should they be rewarded with a #1 seed even if they only have say, one loss to a team ranked above them? I'm assuming that the record is important, but are the teams beaten equally as important as the record itself?

 

[mudcat]

C'mon ETT! Baylor is a legitimately strong contender in their own right. You don't need to puff them up by reminding us of how much they whooped that powerhouse known as the Winthrop Five.

Seriously, your quip has to make the Top Ten funny posts list this year.

I think he meant it to

 

[warbler1055]

I do have one question, and I mean no harm when I ask. (I'm not nearly as well informed on the ins and outs of the selection and seeding process for the tournament as other posters on the yard, so I'm simply trying to gain a bit of insight.) If a team, such as MD, schedules an extremely weak nonconference schedule and faces no serious competition during conference play, why should they be rewarded with a #1 seed even if they only have say, one loss to a team ranked above them? I'm assuming that the record is important, but are the teams beaten equally as important as the record itself?

MD might be a very strong team in this example, but because of its weak SOS, its RESUME as Plebe called it, the selection committee ranked MD as a 9 seed. What other measures do they have to consider at this time?

 

[CocoHusky]

MD beat Ariz St on a neutral court and beat Louisville on the road. And they stayed within 10 against UConn. Miss St beat Texas at home and lost the only quality team they faced on the road. They both beat everyone else and IMO all those games are meaningless in determining who is the better team. Massey ranks MD 6th and Miss St 7th virtually tied by the numbers. They use an algorithm so there is no prejudice toward any conference. Now I am not saying how each should be seeded but making MSSt a one seed while making MD a three seed is way too big a gap.

SOS is not much of a measure of a team's strength. It's fine to break a tie between two teams but my eyes tell me that MD is a better team than even S Carolina, never mind Miss St. Don't let a close game between two SEC teams fool you. MD's offense would defeat Miss St's defense. Remember, most everyone thought they had a dominant defense last year, mostly based on the rest of the SEC not being able to score against them. But we all saw that paper tiger exposed in the S16.
Many are buying what ESPN said, that MD was downgraded because of their schedule. But remember that ESPN has a vested interest in seeing SEC teams in the spotlight and little interest in having teams whose games are on BTN or the PAC12 Network be in the spotlight.

This is still women's basketball we are talking about, which hardly moves the needle in terms of any of the networks you mentioned. Many of us were talking about the Maryland cupcake schedule before the latest announcement of the seeding. The ranking of 9th is also significant and deliberate, indicating that MD has no shot at moving up to a number 1 seed regardless of how the rest of the season plays out. I do not agree that MSU should have also been penalized along with MD because MSU success this season was unexpected and MD's was more likely. MSU got blasted in tournament by UCONN where as MD played UCONN closely having a lead late in the game that ended up being a two possession game. Add the number 1 rated recruiting class to MD and they should have been championship contenders and played an appropriate schedule.

 

[ochoopsfan]

I am not 100% sure, but I thought I read that Stanford can't host the first round(s) of the NCAA Tournament due to a conflict with either the Pac12 Gymnastic Championships or the NCAA Gymnastic tournament. That is why Creme has them as a #3 seed but at #6 seed Texas A & M. Seems like TaM gets a big benefit as a non deserving host, vs adding in the 17th ranked team as a host.

 

[Vowelguy]

I simply don't buy this notion that the selection committee is intentionally bending its decisions to ESPN's commercial interests in certain conferences over others. There is absolutely no evidence of this. If that were the case, how did Maryland land a #1 seed in 2015? (Hint: Maryland's nonconference SOS that year was #9, and its overall SOS #16, to go with a 30-2 record.)

There you go again. Presenting a clear, fact-based, reason argument.

 

[chuck.r]

I am not 100% sure, but I thought I read that Stanford can't host the first round(s) of the NCAA Tournament due to a conflict with either the Pac12 Gymnastic Championships or the NCAA Gymnastic tournament. That is why Creme has them as a #3 seed but at #6 seed Texas A & M. Seems like TaM gets a big benefit as a non deserving host, vs adding in the 17th ranked team as a host.

According to Creme, Stanford venue is already committed on the dates of the opening rounds, so you are correct, Stanford's seed-group plays at next highest seed venue. This occurred last year most notably when #4 MichSt was unable to host due to schedule conflicts at their venue, and their group played at #5 seed MissSt. I remember MichSt coach threw a hissy at the post presser about NCAA policy after they lost in a squeaker to MissSt.

I always wondered why, when such occurs, a school couldn't offer a suitable alternative venue that was regionally convenient and favorable to the higher seed (and their fanbase). I suppose logistics and economics come in to play.

 

[Plebe]

I am not 100% sure, but I thought I read that Stanford can't host the first round(s) of the NCAA Tournament due to a conflict with either the Pac12 Gymnastic Championships or the NCAA Gymnastic tournament. That is why Creme has them as a #3 seed but at #6 seed Texas A & M. Seems like TaM gets a big benefit as a non deserving host, vs adding in the 17th ranked team as a host.

But you can't just add the #17 team as a host because it has to be a team from Stanford's group of 4 teams that hosts. If Stanford is a 3-seed, then it'll be the 6-seed in its "pod" that gets dibs on hosting.

 

[Vowelguy]

I always wondered why, when such occurs, a school couldn't offer a suitable alternative venue that was regionally convenient and favorable to the higher seed (and their fanbase). I suppose logistics and economics come in to play.

I believe they can, but if there's not another arena on campus, where else are they going to go? And keep in mind that most of these schools get only a few thousand, if that, for on-campus games.

 

[ochoopsfan]

In this case, I would put that "pod" in the Stockton group. I think out of the 2 California teams in the top 16, UCLA and Stanford, the Cardinal have a larger fan group that travels and since they cant host round 1 and 2 at least they should get a chance to be closer to home for the regional finals.
On a semi related note, are the dates set in stone for the Bridgeport regional. I know which weekend it is, just not sure the dates.

 

[chuck.r]

I believe they can, but if there's not another arena on campus, where else are they going to go? And keep in mind that most of these schools get only a few thousand, if that, for on-campus games.

I was also thinking of potential off-campus venues, at say the nearest large city. But as soon as I say that, the logistics of making such arrangements with a commercial venue on such short notice make that possibility very unlikely. It could be arranged more easily in advance for schools whose teams are locks for a top-16 bid (1, 2 & maybe even high 3 seeds), but some 3 & 4 seeds won't know their top 16 seeding until selection day.

 

[Alydar]

... I simply don't buy this notion that the selection committee is intentionally bending its decisions to ESPN's commercial interests in certain conferences over others. There is absolutely no evidence of this. If that were the case, how did Maryland land a #1 seed in 2015? (Hint: Maryland's nonconference SOS that year was #9, and its overall SOS #16, to go with a 30-2 record.)

I never said the committee was influenced by ESPN. But the committee never said a word about why they seeded teams as they did. It was ESPN that put their own spin on it and IMO did so for their own benefit. And many on message boards took ESPN's view and somehow turned it into the committee's reasoning. If instead of it being MD it was say an ACC or SEC team that was the other team I don't think ESPN would be making derogatory comments about their schedule. ESPN takes care of their conferences. Look at Miss St's schedule and ask yourself why ESPN doesn't mention the lack of worthy opponents on it. I know their SOS is better than MD's but again, IMO it makes little difference if an elite level team beats No 60 or No 150, they are both totally outclassed. MSSt is getting rewarded for playing weak teams that are only less weak than the ones MD played.

 

[Alydar]

This is still women's basketball we are talking about, which hardly moves the needle in terms of any of the networks you mentioned. Many of us were talking about the Maryland cupcake schedule before the latest announcement of the seeding. The ranking of 9th is also significant and deliberate, indicating that MD has no shot at moving up to a number 1 seed regardless of how the rest of the season plays out. I do not agree that MSU should have also been penalized along with MD because MSU success this season was unexpected and MD's was more likely. MSU got blasted in tournament by UCONN where as MD played UCONN closely having a lead late in the game that ended up being a two possession game. Add the number 1 rated recruiting class to MD and they should have been championship contenders and played an appropriate schedule.

So you are saying that MD has a better team but should be seeded lower because they didn't live up to expectations and MSSt exceeded expectations? Your opinion is yours to make but I look at it another way. MD beat ASU on a neutral court and beat Louisville on the road, both of whom are in the top 16. MSSt beat Texas at home and lost the only other elite level game they played, at S Car. I would make both teams 2 seeds and if I had to make either a one seed it would be the Turtles. Just my opinion.

 

[triaddukefan]

I never said the committee was influenced by ESPN. But the committee never said a word about why they seeded teams as they did. It was ESPN that put their own spin on it and IMO did so for their own benefit. And many on message boards took ESPN's view and somehow turned it into the committee's reasoning. If instead of it being MD it was say an ACC or SEC team that was the other team I don't think ESPN would be making derogatory comments about their schedule. ESPN takes care of their conferences. Look at Miss St's schedule and ask yourself why ESPN doesn't mention the lack of worthy opponents on it. I know their SOS is better than MD's but again, IMO it makes little difference if an elite level team beats No 60 or No 150, they are both totally outclassed. MSSt is getting rewarded for playing weak teams that are only less weak than the ones MD played.

I think ESPN is trying to get back at Maryland for the them leaving the ACC a few years ago.