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Tonyc

Optimus Prime
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#28
Right now UConn is playing the best BB of any other team. Defense wins and UConn and MissSt have the best defenses right now. ND would not have won last season if they didnt live at the foul line and this year that wont happen. ND's defense is not great.

UConn
Miss St
ND
Baylor
Stanford
 

Tonyc

Optimus Prime
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#30
When you score 89+ points in 11 of your last 12 games (5 of 11 against ranked), you dont need a great D.
This is true but when you face good D you most likely will have a problem. I would like to see ND Miss St and see if ND can score 80 pts. ND does not have great ball handlers and McCowan can hold her own against ND.
 
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#31
1-UConn (Albany)
2-ND (Chicago)
3-Baylor (Greensboro)
4-Oregon (Portland)
5-Miss State
6-Louisville

I think Baylor has the best chance of the top 8 to reach the FF but I think if UConn & ND makes it, I give them the advantage from there.
 

IWearShoes

Mississippi State
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#32
Right now UConn is playing the best BB of any other team. Defense wins and UConn and MissSt have the best defenses right now. ND would not have won last season if they didnt live at the foul line and this year that wont happen. ND's defense is not great.

UConn
Miss St
ND
Baylor
Stanford
Yeah, can't really agree with you on MSU's D. Certainly the program is known for D, but this team, while having very individually talented defensive players, has not played as consistently strong team defense as in past years. The stats show it.

But this MSU team, like last year's team, is much better offensively than many casual fans likely realize.
 

meyers7

Smarty Pants
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#33
This is true but when you face good D you most likely will have a problem. I would like to see ND Miss St and see if ND can score 80 pts. ND does not have great ball handlers and McCowan can hold her own against ND.
Actually, that would not be a bad game. Kinda like to see that one.
 
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#34
I actually think Baylor is playing the best D and I think that is how they have won when they aren't shooting lights out.

I think defense is what will get UConn further in the tourney and same with Miss State. I still think Miss State could play even better defense than what I have seen, even though it's pretty good D already.
 

diggerfoot

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#35
To win it all you must first get to the FF, thus factoring in the ability not only to win but to be upset as well. I favor UConn to get to the FF over any other team, they just don't get beat by inferior teams. Once there I only think Notre Dame would beat them .... but I do not think Notre Dame will get to the FF. I think they have chemistry issues which will surface over the course of a six game tournament and I know they are vulnerable to the upset, whether it's due to chemistry or not. After UConn I think MS is second least likely to be upset, Baylor third least likely, only because MS is a little bit more battle tested towards the end of the season. On the other side of things Stanford has proven capable of the upset numerous times; so has Louisville, but I have to wonder about their injuries. Iowa has a money player in the post. Oregon, on the other hand, appears to have worse chemistry issues than Notre Dame, though their talent level may be second only to Notre Dame. With a healthy Louisville my order would be:

UConn
MS
Baylor
Louisville
Stanford
Iowa
Notre Dame
Oregon

If Louisville is not healthy I would drop them down to 8th and move all the others up one. To fulfill the requirements I'll list Oregon State as 9 and Miami as 10, but I have no firm rationale after the first eight.
 
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#36
To win it all you must first get to the FF, thus factoring in the ability not only to win but to be upset as well. I favor UConn to get to the FF over any other team, they just don't get beat by inferior teams. Once there I only think Notre Dame would beat them .... but I do not think Notre Dame will get to the FF. I think they have chemistry issues which will surface over the course of a six game tournament and I know they are vulnerable to the upset, whether it's due to chemistry or not. After UConn I think MS is second least likely to be upset, Baylor third least likely, only because MS is a little bit more battle tested towards the end of the season. On the other side of things Stanford has proven capable of the upset numerous times; so has Louisville, but I have to wonder about their injuries. Iowa has a money player in the post. Oregon, on the other hand, appears to have worse chemistry issues than Notre Dame, though their talent level may be second only to Notre Dame. With a healthy Louisville my order would be:

UConn
MS
Baylor
Louisville
Stanford
Iowa
Notre Dame
Oregon

If Louisville is not healthy I would drop them down to 8th and move all the others up one. To fulfill the requirements I'll list Oregon State as 9 and Miami as 10, but I have no firm rationale after the first eight.

I would love to hear how you think Miss State is more battle tested.
 

Orangutan

South Bend Simian
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#37
Smart. You picked all the conference winners in the Big 5 conferences. They are the hottest teams right now.
Yeah, like who could lose their conference tournament and go on to win a National Championship. I mean, when's the last time that happened? :rolleyes:

Wait, does that mean I'm defending Louisville and Oregon's chances? Never mind, you had it right the first time. :D
 

Orangutan

South Bend Simian
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#38
1. ND
2. UConn
3. Baylor

4. Louisville
5. Miss. St.
6. Oregon
7. Stanford

8. Iowa
9. Maryland
10. Miami
 

diggerfoot

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#40
I would love to hear how you think Miss State is more battle tested.
Fair enough. Note I said "end of the season." Towards the end of their season MS faced teams more likely to upset them, namely SC, and obviously Missouri, than Baylor. I know Baylor's overall schedule was tougher, with both Stanford and UConn being tougher than anything MS had to face, but those did not occur towards the end of the season. If it's any consolation to you I also think that's a strike against UConn, their best opponents came earlier in the season and had cupcakes towards the end. Yet UConn historically has proved resilient to upsets by inferior teams in the NCAAs before the Final Four. The same cannot be said for Baylor.
 
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#41
Fair enough. Note I said "end of the season." Towards the end of their season MS faced teams more likely to upset them, namely SC, and obviously Missouri, than Baylor.
This isn't true either. South Carolina's loss meant that Mississippi State did not face much opposition in the conference tournament. Baylor had to play Iowa State, a good team who will be hosting the NCAA first round. Going back a month, the toughest games for MSU were the Missouri loss, @South Carolina and @Texas A&M. During that same time Baylor has 2 wins over Iowa State on the road and at a neutral site, plus a blowout win over Texas. I don't think you can say that Mississippi State has been more tested recently than Baylor, or any of the top contenders. The SEC did not help much in that regard this year.
 

diggerfoot

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#43
This isn't true either. South Carolina's loss meant that Mississippi State did not face much opposition in the conference tournament. Baylor had to play Iowa State, a good team who will be hosting the NCAA first round. Going back a month, the toughest games for MSU were the Missouri loss, @South Carolina and @Texas A&M. During that same time Baylor has 2 wins over Iowa State on the road and at a neutral site, plus a blowout win over Texas. I don't think you can say that Mississippi State has been more tested recently than Baylor, or any of the top contenders. The SEC did not help much in that regard this year.
Notice you called the Texas game a blowout. A blowout is not a battle. I realize IS gave Baylor tougher games than Texas. Maybe they were legitimate battles, I don't follow B12 basketball enough to know. "But, but, but, the Massey ratings of IS is higher than SC, higher for Texas than Texas A&M." Still close enough so that if one provides a battle and the other doesn't, than that means the team fighting battles is, by definition, more battle tested, more often in a position of things getting tight and being conditioned how to respond instead of perhaps falling apart with the added pressure of an NCAA tournament, something that has happened to Baylor in the past. I understand that a team can be so good that being battle tested is not a possibility, even in the NCAAs. I've seen a few teams like that; I do not consider Baylor to be one of them.

In any case, me giving MS the edge is insignificant. The top four I think are likely to make the Final Four means, once again by definition, I think those teams will make the Final Four. That includes Baylor, and if Baylor makes it they obviously should be seeded first overall.

As an added note, I do think Massey is a very good indicator, but it's not infallible. I really don't think Texas should be as high as it is rated by Massey.
 
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#44
For fun, I went to the Massey Ratings Matchup Tool... and ran the Massey predictions for UCONN vs the projected top teams for the NC, using the "vs." function for neutral court. The results were remarkably close across the board as follows:

UCONN vs Baylor: Massey's "Most Likely": Baylor 71 UCONN 67 (60% to 40%)
UCONN vs ND: Massey's "Most Likely": ND 79 UCONN 74 (63% to 37%)
UCONN vs MSST: Massey's "Most Likely": UCONN 77 MSST 74 (56% to 44%)
UCONN vs Oregon: Massey's "Most Likely": UCONN 77 Ore 74 (59% to 41%)
UCONN vs Stanford: Massey's "Most Likely": UCONN 72 Stan 66 (68% to 32%)
UCONN vs Louisville: Massey's "Most Likely": UCONN 74 Louisville 70 (62% to 38%)

for comparison, Massey picks ND over Baylor by just 1 point, 75 to 74

SO, what does this all mean... I suppose it means (According to Massey), UCONN matches up pretty well vs the other teams in the anticipated "top 7". In my view it means it's going to be "too close to predict"...and the NCAA Tournament is going to be extremely competitive. Hot shooting, cold shooting, a critical player in foul trouble or injured, a Referee's call at a critical point in any of these match ups is going to go a long way to influencing the final outcome.

Of course Massey is not the final word...nor are Polls... and with the closeness and uncertainty in all of this it brings up the phrase... "It's why they play the games". This will be decided on the court! May the best Team win....and win fairly... Let the games begin!!

GO HUSKIES!!!!
 
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#45
Fair enough. Note I said "end of the season." Towards the end of their season MS faced teams more likely to upset them, namely SC, and obviously Missouri, than Baylor. I know Baylor's overall schedule was tougher, with both Stanford and UConn being tougher than anything MS had to face, but those did not occur towards the end of the season. If it's any consolation to you I also think that's a strike against UConn, their best opponents came earlier in the season and had cupcakes towards the end. Yet UConn historically has proved resilient to upsets by inferior teams in the NCAAs before the Final Four. The same cannot be said for Baylor.
Did Baylor not face Iowa State who is a top 16 seed twice in the last month and with the 2nd of those two games on Monday?
 

IWearShoes

Mississippi State
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#46
To win it all you must first get to the FF, thus factoring in the ability not only to win but to be upset as well. I favor UConn to get to the FF over any other team, they just don't get beat by inferior teams. Once there I only think Notre Dame would beat them .... but I do not think Notre Dame will get to the FF. I think they have chemistry issues which will surface over the course of a six game tournament and I know they are vulnerable to the upset, whether it's due to chemistry or not. After UConn I think MS is second least likely to be upset, Baylor third least likely, only because MS is a little bit more battle tested towards the end of the season. On the other side of things Stanford has proven capable of the upset numerous times; so has Louisville, but I have to wonder about their injuries. Iowa has a money player in the post. Oregon, on the other hand, appears to have worse chemistry issues than Notre Dame, though their talent level may be second only to Notre Dame. With a healthy Louisville my order would be:

UConn
MS
Baylor
Louisville
Stanford
Iowa
Notre Dame
Oregon

If Louisville is not healthy I would drop them down to 8th and move all the others up one. To fulfill the requirements I'll list Oregon State as 9 and Miami as 10, but I have no firm rationale after the first eight.
I respect your opinion, but have to question your placement of ND. 7th because of chemistry issues, when Massey has them 1 or 2 based on 30+ games of results? Behind Iowa, who they beat by 34? Just have to agree to disagree.

Also, ND is not losing in the 1st 2 rounds so missing the FF because of chemistry issues will come down to two games, likely in Chicago, not 6.
 
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#47
Yeah, can't really agree with you on MSU's D. Certainly the program is known for D, but this team, while having very individually talented defensive players, has not played as consistently strong team defense as in past years. The stats show it.

But this MSU team, like last year's team, is much better offensively than many casual fans likely realize.
Shoes, stats do not show how the team is playing now. If you watched the SEC tournament, you saw defense that was superb in all three games MSST played. iMHO, this defense is better than any previous MSST team. This team has gelled!
 

diggerfoot

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#48
When even MS fans take issue to my listing I know I am not conveying my point. Lol. Let's try it this way. I happen to think Notre Dame has both the best A game out there and is the team most likely to beat UConn. I'm not surprised by their Massey rating, I endorse it. I would place Baylor 2nd. Their A game could beat anybody but Notre Dame's A game.

Teams don't necessarily bring their A game every night, but the reliable ones don't fall short when it matters, or enough to matter. Notre Dame is not reliable. While capable of beating any team they face in the FF, they also are capable of losing to an inferior team in the regional. They've done so in the not too distant past, as has Baylor; unlike UConn ... or Mississippi State (they don't have a long track record, but what record they have is exceeding expectations, not falling short).

I think Notre Dame will beat UConn if they face again in the Final Four because they are more likely to bring their A game this time around, but I don't think they will make it there. This is not based on factors that Massey measures, but it is based on experiential data. VG asked for our opinions, not a regurgitation of statistical models. The inclusion of the experiential data I find pertinent factors in the likelihood of making it to the Final Four. I do not think UConn, Baylor or Mississippi State will fall short. Baylor has fell short against inferior teams in the past, but their impressive showing down the stretch suggests to me that won't happen this time. They also should beat Mississippi State if both bring their A game. However, I'm just slightly more confident that falling short of the Final Four won't happen to Mississippi State because they are more battle tested, already experienced tighter spots against regional caliber teams, and their history suggests they are like UConn in not losing to an inferior opponent in the Regionals, unlike past failures of Baylor and Notre Dame.

Since you have to make the Final Four before you win a championship that accounts for my rankings. If Notre Dame makes the Final Four I would immediately promote them to the top of the list .... and be very, very nervous.
 
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#49
When even MS fans take issue to my listing I know I am not conveying my point. Lol. Let's try it this way. I happen to think Notre Dame has both the best A game out there and is the team most likely to beat UConn. I'm not surprised by their Massey rating, I endorse it. I would place Baylor 2nd. Their A game could beat anybody but Notre Dame's A game.

Teams don't necessarily bring their A game every night, but the reliable ones don't fall short when it matters, or enough to matter. Notre Dame is not reliable. While capable of beating any team they face in the FF, they also are capable of losing to an inferior team in the regional. They've done so in the not too distant past, as has Baylor; unlike UConn ... or Mississippi State (they don't have a long track record, but what record they have is exceeding expectations, not falling short).

I think Notre Dame will beat UConn if they face again in the Final Four because they are more likely to bring their A game this time around, but I don't think they will make it there. This is not based on factors that Massey measures, but it is based on experiential data. VG asked for our opinions, not a regurgitation of statistical models. The inclusion of the experiential data I find pertinent factors in the likelihood of making it to the Final Four. I do not think UConn, Baylor or Mississippi State will fall short. Baylor has fell short against inferior teams in the past, but their impressive showing down the stretch suggests to me that won't happen this time. They also should beat Mississippi State if both bring their A game. However, I'm just slightly more confident that falling short of the Final Four won't happen to Mississippi State because they are more battle tested, already experienced tighter spots against regional caliber teams, and their history suggests they are like UConn in not losing to an inferior opponent in the Regionals, unlike past failures of Baylor and Notre Dame.

Since you have to make the Final Four before you win a championship that accounts for my rankings. If Notre Dame makes the Final Four I would immediately promote them to the top of the list .... and be very, very nervous.
No Baylor and ND just have 2 National Championships each. Yet, Miss State is more like UConn even though they have zero National Championships.....
 

diggerfoot

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#50
No Baylor and ND just have 2 National Championships each. Yet, Miss State is more like UConn even though they have zero National Championships.....
You do not see me challenging anyone else's opinion on this. I have less respect for those who simply regurgitate Massey, for what are they adding, yet I understand they should be the most frequent responses. Nor do I pay much attention to something that is simply opinion without any experiential evidence whatsoever, but those opinions have their value, as does the "wisdom of crowds," which is precisely what VG is doing in his tabulation. The wisdom of crowds only works if people contribute their own unique angle, rather than group think (or Massey think as the case may be). I contributed mine, rooted in the experience of performing in Regionals and how reliably teams are performing under pressure this year.

Your last retort is nonsensical as a challenge to the perspective of performing up to expectations in the Regionals first. It's been a long, long time since UConn failed to make it through the Regionals when they were the superior team. MS does not have a long track record, but they've been making it through the Regionals in a way that exceeded expectations, not failed to live up to them. It's been fairly recent that Notre Dame and Baylor failed to live up to expectations and they still have the same coaches. Baylor I think is solid and will be in the Final Four and stands a greater chance than Notre Dame, even though I don't think their A game is as good, because I see nothing this year that signals they might fail again. I have seen that with Notre Dame.

If you take exception to that experiential based opinion that's fine. That is the point of polls like this and the "wisdom of crowds." I know some people are put off with that concept, perhaps because it was coined by an economic journalist? But the whole Scientific Revolution and the changing of the university system is based on that very phenomenon. You have your own perspective, it may be prove to be more or less correct, only the future will tell. The fact that it should bother you so much that you keep challenging me in this kind of opinion poll, ignoring my points about making it through the Regionals based on valid experiences with irrelevant counters about past championships, reveals you don't understand how the wisdom of crowds is supposed to work (and also likely you don't understand my point), but rather you are too invested and dogmatic about your own.

But cheer up! The wisdom of the Boneyard crowd has you ahead of both Mississippi State and UConn. I respect the wisdom of crowds, but will add that if Notre Dame fails to make the Final Four, while UConn, Baylor and Mississippi State gets in, I'm going to look like a genius!
 

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