Your prediction: when the realignment music where does UConn end up ?

[seeya27]

Did anyone see Mauro's column in the NL Day? He enthusiastically makes the case that UConn is deluding itself that an ACC berth will ever happen.

A lot of old market/football arguments are weaved throughout the piece (vomit?).

 

[CL82]

If only we had someone to strong-arm ESPN and convince them that it's in their best interest to find us a safe and lucrative landing but, alas, I don't think anyone like that exists anymore.

Fishy?

I think he still has the wood chipper…

 

[CL82]

Did anyone see Mauro's column in the NL Day? He enthusiastically makes the case that UConn is deluding itself that an ACC berth will ever happen.

A lot of old market/football arguments are weaved throughout the piece (vomit?).

Reading his column was your first mistake.

(Giving a crap about it was your second one.)

 

[District-Husky]

When this round of realignment ends where do you believe UConn will end up?

I believe that UConn will likely not get a golden ticket to either the B1G or SEC and will have the option to join a better version of the AAC with the leftovers from the ACC (BC, Syracuse, Wake Forest etc) and attempt to finance FBS football with escalating costs against the P2 teams, or reclassify football for financial reasons and stay in the Big East.

Your thoughts about where UConn ends up when this round of reclassification music stops?

 

[seeya27]

Reading his column was your first mistake.

(Giving a crap about it was your second one.)

Point taken. I should know better.

 

[NH Husky]

I think when all the dust settles there will two tier 1 conferences - B1G, SEC.
Football for the tier 2 schools goes similar to collegiate hockey model with football only regional conferences. Building up regional rivals will increase revenue locally.
All other sports in conferences similar to big East.
I could see our football only conference including Syracuse, BC, UMass, Army, Navy, Temple, Buffalo, Pitt….

 

[billybud]

I could see an AFL-NFL type merger for college ball.....back in 1970 the two separate leagues (American Football League and National Football League) merged into the NFL with NFC and AFC divisions. And the playoff Champions meet in the Superbowl.

A natural regionalism could intensify national interest.....Having teams primarily from the northern tier of states versus teams primarily from the southern tier.

This first tier college grouping for football would be professional for all intents and purposes....already, some universities are unhooking the athletic side of the house from the academic side. Baseball, Softball, etc Regionals would have the same mechanisms as current.

The NCAA basketball would go on as now...with all teams eligible for the dance but having to make the cut above the bubble.

 

[Exit 4]

I think when all the dust settles there will two tier 1 conferences - B1G, SEC.
Football for the tier 2 schools goes similar to collegiate hockey model with football only regional conferences. Building up regional rivals will increase revenue locally.
All other sports in conferences similar to big East.
I could see our football only conference including Syracuse, BC, UMass, Army, Navy, Temple, Buffalo, Pitt….

Definitely could see it this way if it is eventually decided that the athletes must be treated as employees and directly paid as such.

 

[Slasher]

I think eventually UConn will end up in the ACC. I suspect it'll be a weakened ACC but still a solid landing spot. There will be some defections but it'll survive and the Pac 12 will die.

 

[Zissou]

Merged with Providence

 

[Kolumbo]

If the SEC and the Big Ten are getting a media rights distribution of $100 million a year and we are getting a distribution of $4 million a year, we do not have stability for the athletic department.

Now, ideally, I’d like to get $100 million a year, but I don’t see any path for that to happen. So, I’d like to join the best of the rest table so we are making approximately $40 million a year from our media rights. Don’t get me wrong, it’s not enough, but at least it keeps us in the conversation of the best of the rest.

Suddenly we are only getting $4 million? There is stability, and there is opulence. Don't need that to have stability. A university needs a workable budget in order to compete. Making $100 million is just obscene gravy.

 

[Kolumbo]

Lots of interesting takes in this thread. It summons up a question that has been brewing in the back of my mind for a a while.

All of this CR stuff is about money. Got it.

My question is this: Is there a threshold of revenue beyond which the institutional/program advantage curve flattens out? In other words, all in, including NIL, fancy facilities, and luxurious coaching staff budgets, if my school gets 80 bazillion dollars a year, and yours gets 110 bazillion, does your school have any measurable advantage in terms of fielding a competitive football team?

I have to imagine there is some revenue level beyond which returns diminish to equilibrium across programs. If so, what is that revenue level?

There is a pool of athletes playing college ball every year. Ohio State and Texas can pull in $200 bazillion. They can still offer only so many scholarships and student-athletes are still going to play at non-P2 schools.

 

[billybud]

There is a pool of athletes playing college ball every year. Ohio State and Texas can pull in $200 bazillion. They can still offer only so many scholarships and student-athletes are still going to play at non-P2 schools.

The question is...can a P2 mount a competitive team?

If competitive means able to win a football national championship...the answer is NO. Unless there is a tier 2 championship.

For 37 years we have had a long string of Alabama's, Clemson's, LSU's, Georgia's, Ohio State's, Texas, Oklahoma, FSU's, Florida's Miami's...

If competitive means winning an occasional game against a lower level P5 ? Well, yes.

 

[CL82]

Suddenly we are only getting $4 million? There is stability, and there is opulence. Don't need that to have stability. A university needs a workable budget in order to compete. Making $100 million is just obscene gravy.

If by “suddenly“ you mean “have always gotten $4 million for media rights along with the rest of the Big East teams”, I could not agree more.

While the bolsheviks among us might term the hundred million dollar payout anticipated as a member of the P2 as being “obscene gravy”, the rest of us realize is merely the new ante to stay in the game.

 

[Hoophound]

If by “suddenly“ you mean “have always gotten $4 million for media rights along with the rest of the Big East teams”, I could not agree more.

While the bolsheviks among us might term the hundred million dollar payout anticipated as a member of the P2 as being “obscene gravy”, the rest of us realize is merely the new ante to stay in the game.

This stuff doesn’t bother me too awful much until I remember that Rutgers, Indiana, Minnesota, Miss St, and others will be enojoying this windfall as the rest of us fall off the map. That’s infuriating.

 

[CL82]

This stuff doesn’t bother me too awful much until I remember that Rutgers, Indiana, Minnesota, Miss St, and others will be enojoying this windfall as the rest of us fall off the map. That’s infuriating.

The only reason why it bothers me is that eventually we aren’t going to be able to hire quality coaches. And I don’t mean just for the money sports. I mean for the Olympic sports as well. Our facilities are great, so we are well positioned there, but eventually we will fall behind there as well. Look at Rutgers, it’s blowing through its big 10 money plus another $73M annually just trying to bring its facilities up to snuff. It just asked for another hundred million dollars from New Jersey taxpayers. This is an arms war end ultimately whomever has the best economic system, i.e. the best access to capital, is the party who wins in arms war.

 

[Hoophound]

The only reason why it bothers me is that eventually we aren’t going to be able to hire quality coaches. And I don’t mean just for the money sports. I mean for the Olympic sports as well. Our facilities are great, so we are well positioned there, but eventually we will fall behind there as well. Look at Rutgers, it’s blowing through its big 10 money plus another $73M annually just trying to bring its facilities up to snuff. It just asked for another hundred million dollars from New Jersey taxpayers. This is an arms war end ultimately whomever has the best economic system, i.e. the best access to capital, is the party who wins in arms war.

I understand. I’ve accepted that unless we get really lucky somehow, we have already lost the arms race. I just get upset when jealousy takes over. Why should Rutgers or Indiana fans be able to have big time football and we can’t? That bothers me more that anything else. There are quite a few PeeWee schools along for the ride created by 8 or so schools.

Still, I hold out some hope that the second tier might be quite a bit better than some people think. If the current PAC and B12 schools remain left behind along with several ACC schools, there are some pretty big names in football hotbeds in tier 2. I think this is less about facilities in the long run, you can bond that, raise money etc. Paying players and coaches is where things are out of control and headed for worse.

 

[CL82]

I understand. I’ve accepted that unless we get really lucky somehow, we have already lost the arms race. I just get upset when jealousy takes over. Why should Rutgers or Indiana fans be able to have big time football and we can’t? That bothers me more that anything else. There are quite a few PeeWee schools along for the ride created by 8 or so schools.

Still, I hold out some hope that the second tier might be quite a bit better than some people think. If the current PAC and B12 schools remain left behind along with several ACC schools, there are some pretty big names in football hotbeds in tier 2. I think this is less about facilities in the long run, you can bond that, raise money etc. Paying players and coaches is where things are out of control and headed for worse.

If players become hired guns in college sports generally, and football in particular, becomes a de facto semi pro league, that’s when I think I will be out.

 

[Hoophound]

If players become hired guns in college sports generally, and football in particular, becomes a de facto semi pro league, that’s when I think I will be out.

Unfortunately, it seems that is where we are headed and no one is trying to hide it. Ruining college sports for millions of fans is just vicious. I really hope the average Joe won’t let them get away with it and stops watching. Forcing all of us to become Bama fans is just stupid. What about all of the college towns that rely on big games for restaurants and hotels to survive? Most importantly, what about all of the kids, families and seniors that will be robbed of their fandom and favorite pastimes? It is a national issue that will affect the quality of life of many, me included. Screw these conferences.

 

[TheDrifter75]

Unfortunately, it seems that is where we are headed and no one is trying to hide it. Ruining college sports for millions of fans is just vicious. I really hope the average Joe won’t let them get away with it and stops watching. Forcing all of us to become Bama fans is just stupid. What about all of the college towns that rely on big games for restaurants and hotels to survive? Most importantly, what about all of the kids, families and seniors that will be robbed of their fandom and favorite pastimes? It is a national issue that will affect the quality of life of many, me included. Screw these conferences.

Adapt and survive, isn't that what everyone says. A few may stop watching, most won't.

 

[Billy Jack]

you don't think the ACC will add UCONN if they are raided? or you don't think the ACC will be raided?

If raided I would think UCONN is close to a lock to be added to the ACC and it's pretty obvious UCONN will accept an ACC offer.

Didn’t most is here feel the same way 10 years when we were pushed aside in favor of Louisville? And don’t we need to know the composition of the ACC at the time of the presumed offer to know if it makes sense?

 

[Billy Jack]

If the SEC and the Big Ten are getting a media rights distribution of $100 million a year and we are getting a distribution of $4 million a year, we do not have stability for the athletic department.

Now, ideally, I’d like to get $100 million a year, but I don’t see any path for that to happen. So, I’d like to join the best of the rest table so we are making approximately $40 million a year from our media rights. Don’t get me wrong, it’s not enough, but at least it keeps us in the conversation of the best of the rest.

$40 million is a pipe dream. That’s a tremendous amount of money. Notre Dame doesn’t even receive that much right now. $40 million only looks small in contrast with the projected $100 million for the B1G. However, they’re only getting that much brpecause they’ve assembled a group with that kind of revenue generating capability. UConn will only get even 40 million when we have proven that we have that kind of revenue generating power.

 

[LoyalFanCT]

Sometime starting between 2023 and 2027 ACC. Then, with AAU membership, between 2030 and 2035 B10. Goodbye New Big East!

 

[Rufus]

Something else that will harm everyone outside of the B1G and SEC….let’s say any other school signed a recruit that had a breakout season. That player will be coveted by the B1G and SEC schools. Those schools will have the best NIL deals. That player will likely transfer to a B1G or SEC school for the higher NIL deals and the increased media exposure. While the Indianas and Mississippi States of the world may not compete for a national championship, they are likely to benefit from top players outside the B1G and SEC transferring to their schools.

I think USC will highly benefit from the combination of B1G money and exposure on top of the NIL market in Los Angeles. UCLA has that potential too.

And a dark horse….what if a few NYC elites decide to go all in on NIL with Rutgers? The same with DC and Maryland? People laughed at Jim Delany adding Maryland and Rutgers, but I think he was a genius and it’s the B1G laughing all the way to the bank.

 

[Kolumbo]

The question is...can a P2 mount a competitive team?

If competitive means able to win a football national championship...the answer is NO. Unless there is a tier 2 championship.

For 37 years we have had a long string of Alabama's, Clemson's, LSU's, Georgia's, Ohio State's, Texas, Oklahoma, FSU's, Florida's Miami's...

If competitive means winning an occasional game against a lower level P5 ? Well, yes.

What's your point. If you aren't in the P2, the only sensible course of action is to fold up shop? We already know the P2 is separating itself. So yeah, the rest can be competitive in whatever slop is thrown together here on out.