Your prediction: when the realignment music where does UConn end up ? | The Boneyard

Your prediction: when the realignment music where does UConn end up ?

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When this round of realignment ends where do you believe UConn will end up?

I believe that UConn will likely not get a golden ticket to either the B1G or SEC and will have the option to join a better version of the AAC with the leftovers from the ACC (BC, Syracuse, Wake Forest etc) and attempt to finance FBS football with escalating costs against the P2 teams, or reclassify football for financial reasons and stay in the Big East.

Your thoughts about where UConn ends up when this round of reclassification music stops?
 
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A conference of:

UConn, Pitt, Cuse, BC, Wake, USF, Temple, Army, Navy, Tulane, ECU, Memphis, and maybe UMass or Buffalo. This may not be the exact conference roster but something very similar. Maybe another ACC team in there. I think UConn gets the ACC invite before the whole thing crumbles to the ground, and this will be what’s left.
 
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UConn is not going anywhere for basketball and Olympic sports. Football could end up in a league of some sort.

you don't think the ACC will add UCONN if they are raided? or you don't think the ACC will be raided?

If raided I would think UCONN is close to a lock to be added to the ACC and it's pretty obvious UCONN will accept an ACC offer.
 
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Your thoughts about where UConn ends up when this round of reclassification music stops?
It looks like the GOR will prevent any ACC schools from leaving, so I don't think UConn is going anywhere.

And, if the ACC were to add schools, I don't think it's a sure thing that UConn would be one of them.
 

geordi

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When the next realignment is over, UConn will be in the Big East for all sports but football and hockey and will remain independent in football. Sorry to break it to you, but moving is a financial disaster for the next 6-10 years. When they joined the Big East, they promised NOT to consider alignment with any P5 league for, I believe, 10 years as part of the agreement. They also would be subject to a $30M exit fee for the next 4 years (decreasing somewhat after that) for leaving the BE. They are still paying $1M a year to get out of the AAC. They paid $3.5M to join the BE; what do you think they'd have to pay to join the
ACC?

Even considering all that, they likely wouldn't become vested in their new league for several years. They won 't be vested with the Big East for 4-5 more years. If the ACC is desperate enough to take them, the $30-35M payout to each ACC team would likely decrease.

Oh, and they are still working on a $43M budget deficit.

Dream if you will, but financially it's a complete no go. Of course, if you wan to pony up $100 - 150 million to make them whole, maybe it can work.
 
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When they joined the Big East, they promised NOT to consider alignment with any P5 league for, I believe, 10 years as part of the agreement.

That’s not accurate…

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Urcea

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by 2040 I would imagine UConn will basically be in a rehashed version of the old Big East with ACC leftovers (plus maybe Temple or Buffalo or something)
 
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Nothing changes. fool me three times and I deserve the steel toed boot to the crotch, over and over and over...

Down the road:

B1G and SEC are out unless those conferences grow to over 40 programs each. We are just not University of Illinois material. yet.

ACC - This is really the best-case scenario even if the ACC loses a few of its top football programs. It would reunite us with Big East and east coast programs

A collection of AAC/ACC/Big 12/Independent remnants or vestiges could work but it would have to contain at a minimum 3 or 4 of our old Big East mates: Syracuse, Pitt, WVU, Rutgers (who knows), BC, Louisville, Cincy, It has to be a very strong east coast basketball conference with football rivalry potential to even consider leaving the New Big East.

This latest tremor shows how ridiculous these people are being and that nothing makes any sense anymore, so who knows.

1658170781032.png
 

CL82

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When the next realignment is over, UConn will be in the Big East for all sports but football and hockey and will remain independent in football. Sorry to break it to you, but moving is a financial disaster for the next 6-10 years. When they joined the Big East, they promised NOT to consider alignment with any P5 league for, I believe, 10 years as part of the agreement. They also would be subject to a $30M exit fee for the next 4 years (decreasing somewhat after that) for leaving the BE. They are still paying $1M a year to get out of the AAC. They paid $3.5M to join the BE; what do you think they'd have to pay to join the
ACC?

Even considering all that, they likely wouldn't become vested in their new league for several years. They won 't be vested with the Big East for 4-5 more years. If the ACC is desperate enough to take them, the $30-35M payout to each ACC team would likely decrease.

Oh, and they are still working on a $43M budget deficit.

Dream if you will, but financially it's a complete no go. Of course, if you wan to pony up $100 - 150 million to make them whole, maybe it can work.
After 2026 buyout becomes 15,000,00 for another few years and the drops to $10M. Against the payout that is likely to be 40 million or more? That’s a no-brainer.
 

Urcea

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by 2040 I would imagine UConn will basically be in a rehashed version of the old Big East with ACC leftovers (plus maybe Temple or Buffalo or something)
to follow up on this I think we really need to clarify what we want out of realignment exactly. I think worrying about prestige is a mistake and worrying about national TV dollars or whatever is probably a pipe dream. Ultimately I think we just need to be in some conference with similar state flagship schools in the northeast/middle states where our fanbase naturally interacts with other ones along the eastern string of cities (DC to Boston) to enhance rivalries and school exposure. IMO this will basically ensure our product has a relatively high floor of viability in most sports and that uconn will always have interested eyes even if it's not SEC amounts of interest and money. If we somehow end up at the B1G or whatever that's even better, but again I think figuring out the "what" of realignment rather than the "who" is key here
 

CL82

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to follow up on this I think we really need to clarify what we want out of realignment exactly. I think worrying about prestige is a mistake and worrying about national TV dollars or whatever is probably a pipe dream. Ultimately I think we just need to be in some conference with similar state flagship schools in the northeast/middle states where our fanbase naturally interacts with other ones along the eastern string of cities (DC to Boston) to enhance rivalries and school exposure. IMO this will basically ensure our product has a relatively high floor of viability in most sports and that uconn will always have interested eyes even if it's not SEC amounts of interest and money. If we somehow end up at the B1G or whatever that's even better, but again I think figuring out the "what" of realignment rather than the "who" is key here
I think job number one has to be stability and viability for the Athletics programs. That is achieved by having enough financial stability that we can compete at the very highest levels. The problem is I don’t think we can get there. So our goal has to be to get as close as we can. That means one of the P5 remnants have to be our target. Obviously the Big Ten in the SEC is out and the Pac 12 is a geographic bad fit. That leaves us with the big 12 or the ACC. The big 12 is a horrific fit for us geographically and we don’t have tradition with the bulk of those programs. What’s left? A watered down ACC.

The question becomes, then, how do we achieve that goal. First and foremost is success on the football field. We don’t have to be the best program in college football to get a seat at the kitty table. But we probably need not to be among the worst teams in college football. Hopefully, Jim Mora and his staff takes care of that for us.
 
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to follow up on this I think we really need to clarify what we want out of realignment exactly. I think worrying about prestige is a mistake and worrying about national TV dollars or whatever is probably a pipe dream. Ultimately I think we just need to be in some conference with similar state flagship schools in the northeast/middle states where our fanbase naturally interacts with other ones along the eastern string of cities (DC to Boston) to enhance rivalries and school exposure. IMO this will basically ensure our product has a relatively high floor of viability in most sports and that uconn will always have interested eyes even if it's not SEC amounts of interest and money. If we somehow end up at the B1G or whatever that's even better, but again I think figuring out the "what" of realignment rather than the "who" is key here
What "makes sense" from a philosophical standpoint doesn't begin to address the reality of how this works. If an offer is on the table that addresses our financial, regional and competitive goals we strongly consider it. But that wasn't even the question. Seems to me the likely scenario in an environment where the music never really stops is we are here for 3-5 years, then to a reconstituted ACC, or finally B1G as the least likely option. If nothing happens by year 5 something would have to give regarding FB independence barring a very successful turnaround. But again, does the music ever stop?
 
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I think job number one has to be stability and viability for the Athletics programs. That is achieved by having enough financial stability that we can compete at the very highest levels. The problem is I don’t think we can get there. So our goal has to be to get as close as we can. That means one of the P5 remnants have to be our target. Obviously the Big Ten in the SEC is out and the Pac 12 is a geographic bad fit. That leaves us with the big 12 or the ACC. The big 12 is a horrific fit for us geographically and we don’t have tradition with the bulk of those programs. What’s left? A watered down ACC.

The question becomes, then, how do we achieve that goal. First and foremost is success on the football field. We don’t have to be the best program in college football to get a seat at the kitty table. But we probably need not to be among the worst teams in college football. Hopefully, Jim Mora and his staff takes care of that for us.
We have stability and viability for all programs in the Big East. All except football. Granted, football drives the bus in CR but he's blowing a 0.50 BAC. CR is really out of our control and there are some very good programs who will continue to chase crumbs. I don't think UCONN football will compete at the very highest levels so it will be an unknown for a long time, just as it will be for everyone not in the P2. The upside is UCONN has nowhere to go but up. Some of those other programs however...

whoa-nelly.gif


I think at some point the NCAA has to allow the programs to separate football from the rest of the AD. The big guys can afford to fly everyone all over the country. The rest should be allowed to form regional conferences for all sports except football, and form separate conferences just for football.
 

Urcea

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That's all fair points but I think some fans (myself included) would ultimately still prefer to play other big state flagship schools in the Olympic sports too and the programs would likely benefit from that all else being equal
 
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I think eventually we will end up in a conference that features some of the current acc teams. Whether that's something that looks like the current acc minus the 2-4 most attractive schools to the big 10 and sec, or if it's basically a new conference that includes the few remaining schools from a collapsed acc, im not sure.
 

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My vision:

Eventually there will be two or three conferences that are generally aligned with one media company and they will each have A Pod and B Pod for football that will have some form of relegation. So I'm thinking in 20 years it will be a 24 to 30 school B1G, 18-24 school SEC and a third national conf with a new name with another 20-30 schools. In all 60 to 75 schools get in the club. Collectively this will be the breakaway group and there is a good chance they will have their own football and basketball playoff system to control all the revenues and set the slotting rules. The great BB tournament will come split between the super conf tournament and the "old" big dance.

To make this work financially, all three super conferences will create A and B level members. A members get the prime cuts of revenue (current #s), the B members a right sized junior cut (could be as low as 30-50% of the A members). Two tier financials must happen. And for football, within these new super conferences a form of relegation might be created via pod systems with the outcome being reduced access to the new playoff (basically a G5 environment within the system). I think dozens of schools would be happy to be a B member rather than left out all together. Schools get a lot of marketing and pride from sports, better to stay at the top - compete and see what happens.

Where do we end up, hopefully in some sort of B pod football team in one of these super conf. We are still one of three chips on the board for all points north and east of Rutty and Penn St. And of the three, we are the only flagship state school.

We have to survive the next 10 years to be on the dancefloor for the age of the super conferences.

This is all just my fly by the seat of the pants prediction. I think the world of steaming/bundling might help us. Streamers are finding their entertainment products are not sticky w/o sports. And if your are a streamer- you want to acquire sports packages that hit all markets, not products with coverage holes. This is where we come in, you need schools like UConn in the big media package to give you full national coverage. And you would add UConn and some other gaps in the map if everyone could agree on a tier 2 payout...which is warranted.

Caveat to all of this; if it is decided the kids shall be employees with employee rights, then I think the future is just two super conferences with about 40-46 schools and we are not a part of that set up. If the kids get full employee rights the tent will have to get smaller.
 

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Has to happen - or else we'll end up with a P2 set up with just 30-40 schools....and that will make a lot of people unhappy.
 

CL82

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We have stability and viability for all programs in the Big East. All except football. Granted, football drives the bus in CR but he's blowing a 0.50 BAC. CR is really out of our control and there are some very good programs who will continue to chase crumbs. I don't think UCONN football will compete at the very highest levels so it will be an unknown for a long time, just as it will be for everyone not in the P2. The upside is UCONN has nowhere to go but up. Some of those other programs however...

View attachment 77646

I think at some point the NCAA has to allow the programs to separate football from the rest of the AD. The big guys can afford to fly everyone all over the country. The rest should be allowed to form regional conferences for all sports except football, and form separate conferences just for football.
If the SEC and the Big Ten are getting a media rights distribution of $100 million a year and we are getting a distribution of $4 million a year, we do not have stability for the athletic department.

Now, ideally, I’d like to get $100 million a year, but I don’t see any path for that to happen. So, I’d like to join the best of the rest table so we are making approximately $40 million a year from our media rights. Don’t get me wrong, it’s not enough, but at least it keeps us in the conversation of the best of the rest.
 

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