They aren’t shutting down football. Much smaller, poorer schools are upgrading to FBS on the regular. FCS is no longer worth playing for a major university and there is no way UConn is quitting football entirely.
I'd guess that barring a B12 BB membership that UConn ends up in a group of what is now G-5 and the best FCS conferences.
The writing is on the wall that the P-4 are going to break away at some point and they have no reason not to just have their own BB tournament and FB playoff.
IF UConn misses that boat I can see the G-5, Big Sky, and a few other conferences and teams moving together. Would actually be really good as there is no reason to have G-5 teams who generate less than 50 million $ through the AD competing with those who make 250+ million and have massive NIL programs paying millions to players.
IMO the only shot UConn has at avoiding that scenario is getting the B12 to give them something like 4-5 FB games as part of BB membership. That way UConn could at least get TV partners to pay more than 100k per game if they are getting two to five P-4 home games each year.
With UConn only making 100k per game on TV there is no real path to sustainability as even the worst G-5 conferences are making a lot more than that per game.
You can't run a FBS program with no $ coming in from ticket sales, TV, etc.
If UConn chooses to stay in the Big East it's hard to see how they end up in a P-4 breakaway BB tournament. I mean I am sure the next division tournament down will be great but if you take out the P-4 there is not much meat left on the bone as the Big TV draws are pretty much gone. The P-4 has no reason to include the Big East in any future plans and to be quite frank the Big East TV #'s are abysmal as nobody watched FS1 or FS2 as they are dying the same death RSN's and soon to be conference networks will see. nobody is paying extra for sports packs anymore. So even the Big East has an exposure issue and no long term path to making more $ on FS1.
Uconn is in a really delicate situation right now IMO. And the path to the B1G, ACC, and SEC seem really cloudy.
But if the B12 adds Gonzaga I think UConn has an outside shot to get in the upper tier before they break away.