Xavier line | The Boneyard

Xavier line

XLCenterFan said:
Early number is us -7. I mean, we covered 8 vs Creighton and 15 vs Butler, but wow.
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Not touching, I imagine it will be a close game all the way to the end.

50 cent laughing GIF
 
We should win this game. We do great in Gampel. We do great as underdogs/backs up against the wall situations.
We played them really really tough at their building. They’re a good freaking team with a great coach, and we had chances to win the game.

Having said that, I wouldn’t touch that line.
 
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It's a set up for people to hammer Xavier. Vegas isn't giving a very solid team like Xavier all them points for nothing. Classic Vegas move. Uconn covers but I wouldn't touch it
 
Kenpom has UConn by 8.*
Barttorvik has UConn by 10.
Haslametrics has UConn by 8.

All of the advanced metrics still like UConn more than Xavier and it is really as simple as that. Vegas power rankings and the analytical website rankings are always pretty similar.

The running joke on Vegas Twitter is that they put out opening lines and totals that are eerily similar to KP projections.
 
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AD DB Burner said:
Kenpom has UConn by 8.*
Barttorvik has UConn by 10.
Haslametrics has UConn by 8.

All of the advanced metrics still like UConn more than Xavier and it is really as simple as that. Vegas power rankings and the analytical website rankings are always pretty similar.

The running joke on Vegas Twitter is that they put out opening lines and totals that are eerily similar to KP projections.
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Vegas probably just fired all their statisticians and just created a model to say "whatever Kenpom has +/- 1" and now they're making out like bandits
 
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Buffett10 said:
It's a set up for people to hammer Xavier. Vegas isn't giving a very solid team like Xavier all them points for nothing. Classic Vegas move. Uconn covers but I wouldn't touch it
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Totally seems like a trap. Most will pound X at that number. And maybe Vegas wants that, knowing we should cover in Storrs. It’s like when NFL lines open up and you see a line you love. Whole country did the same thing and you all lose together.
 
AD DB Burner said:
Kenpom has UConn by 8.*
Barttorvik has UConn by 10.
Haslametrics has UConn by 8.

All of the advanced metrics still like UConn more than Xavier and it is really as simple as that. Vegas power rankings and the analytical website rankings are always pretty similar.

The running joke on Vegas Twitter is that they put out opening lines and totals that are eerily similar to KP projections.
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I hope it not a death kiss
 
Buffett10 said:
It's a set up for people to hammer Xavier. Vegas isn't giving a very solid team like Xavier all them points for nothing. Classic Vegas move. Uconn covers but I wouldn't touch it
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Why would they do that? If you’re making book, you want the bets to come in 50-50. You lose money if the bets come in heavily on one team, and they cover the spread
 
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AD DB Burner said:
As the story goes, the early KP users were able to make a killing on totals before books started opening the O/Us within a couple of points of most KP projections.
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You aren’t kidding. Made a killing it wasn’t until conference play when the books started dialing it in. There were some totals that would have 10 point swings in the early days from open to close
 
Wow 7 is crazy.

I was expecting to be favorites, I figured -3 or -4.

If money is coming in on Xavier and the line doesn't move, Vegas has an itch and they are rarely wrong.
 
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HuskyHawk said:
Only explanation is that they read my Haiku and know the mojo will be strong.
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According to a complex mojo formula that I utilize to determine whether or not, I may haiku, I currently am in a no haiku cycle.
 
I have no idea how to feel about the spread (-7 or 7.5 is what I've seen), but the moneyline at -345/+285 seems way too high. That would imply that we're like 76% to win this game.

I put a little on Xavier +285 (hate doing this, but seems like good value and I expect to be able to hedge it live if the game is close in the second half).

If we get an early lead and the live spread inflates from 7.5 to 10.5 or so, I'd probably put some on Xavier +10.5 (even if there's fouling at the end, it's rare for that to push into double digits), also expecting to hedge later and get UConn at -3.5 or whatever when we have a small lead later on and give myself a big landing strip.

If we blow them out from the tip I'm happy to take a bath on this game.
 
Tenspro2002 said:
I have no idea how to feel about the spread (-7 or 7.5 is what I've seen), but the moneyline at -345/+285 seems way too high. That would imply that we're like 76% to win this game.

I put a little on Xavier +285 (hate doing this, but seems like good value and I expect to be able to hedge it live if the game is close in the second half).

If we get an early lead and the live spread inflates from 7.5 to 10.5 or so, I'd probably put some on Xavier +10.5 (even if there's fouling at the end, it's rare for that to push into double digits), also expecting to hedge later and get UConn at -3.5 or whatever when we have a small lead later on and give myself a big landing strip.

If we blow them out from the tip I'm happy to take a bath on this game.
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Yup I’ll pay $50 for a UConn win lol
 
HuskyHawk said:
Only explanation is that they read my Haiku and know the mojo will be strong.
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I tried no Haiku for Seton Hall and wasn't happy with that result. I went with musical Haiku X 3 today.
 
Xavier line?

Probably something like “Hey baby, you want to see my musket?”
 
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