Wow

[Sluconn Husky]

Geno is the answer to UConn beating Baylor. Barring any major flop UConn wins by double digets. I dont care about stats its UConn Baylor and Geno is pretty good at winning big games. He is the difference.

I believe UConn is 3-3 against Baylor in their last 6 matchups.

 

[BostonBay]

I have it as a toss-up. Slight advantage maybe to Baylor because of their experience. If UConn wins, they will have earned it - their confidence will be sky high, & I can see them running the table.

 

[MSGRET]

I believe UConn is 3-3 against Baylor in their last 6 matchups.

They are 4-4 over the last 8 matchups. Starting with UConn's Final Four win in San Antonio on 4/4/2010 and ending with Baylor's win last season in Hartford. UConn won the first two, then Baylor won the next two, then UConn the next two, and Baylor the last two. If everything stays the same then UConn is due to win the next two game's.

 

[SVCBeercats]

Geno is the answer to UConn beating Baylor. Barring any major flop UConn wins by double digets. I dont care about stats its UConn Baylor and Geno is pretty good at winning big games. He is the difference.

But can he make enough three pointers?

 

[Cuango]

To follow up on SVC's post:

Mulkey's game plan on offense should be:

1) get the ball inside
2) get the ball inside
3) get the ball inside

Nelson-Ododa hasn't seen a good post player yet this year. People are talking about how she's stronger, but she still gets moved off her block by smaller players. She'll pick up a couple of quick fouls against Egbo or Smith. I think UConn should bring Edwards (for Makurat or Williams) in after Ododa gets one foul, have Edwards guard the inside. Having to go big could actually work in UConn's favor, as long as Ododa doesn't get a second foul quickly.

On defense, as SVC said, the plan should be have Richards stick to Bueckers. That would put Ursin on Williams or Westbrook, either of whom would have a considerable size advantage. UConn should exploit that, which would mean those kids making shots and/or good entry passes to the post.

I’m not sure where the doom and gloom comes from about ONO vs Egbo. I believe Liv’s numbers are better across the board. Maybe Egbo should be worrying about Liv?

 

[Cuango]

I agree that UConn has some problem areas that can really bite them against good competition. But I also wonder how much Egbo and Gusters will play against them. In their loss to Arkansas, when you'd expect them to play the most, Gusters only played 9 min with 4 pts and a rebound. Egbo managed to foul out in 11 minutes when they needed her most. And Arkansas isn't a big team, only one kid 6-2 played against Baylor and she comes off the bench. I think Bueckers has to be very aggressive offensively, take it right at Richards when she can and try to get her in foul trouble early. Against solid teams like Baylor I believe ONO and Edwards need to play a big chunk of the game together to avoid them collapsing on ONO.

Raise your hand if you think UConn would lose to Arkansas! Sure, we might lose to Baylor but I just don’t see where we should be more worried about them than they should be about us.

 

[Twolf]

Raise your hand if you think UConn would lose to Arkansas! Sure, we might lose to Baylor but I just don’t see where we should be more worried about them than they should be about us.

Agreed, and despite all the hand wringing & consternation over issues with various players, and weaknesses of the team as a whole, using the s.w.a.g. method (scientific wild arse guess) I would say 99% of the NCAA women’s programs would gleefully trade issues with UConn. In addition UConn has leadership at the top of the program who have demonstrated that they have the ability to solve whatever issues arise over the course of a college season. None of this guarantees a win over Baylor, but it would suggest that this young team will continue to improve and be a load for any opponent come tournament time.

 

[CL82]

Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to counter Kim Mulkey's game plan against UCONN.

Kim Mulkey's UCONN game plan

1. Keys to UCONN's winning: Bueckers and Nelson-Ododa and scoring in the paint.
   1. Bueckers is the catalyst for UCONN's Offense.
      1. She is a freshman who has never experienced tight, aggressive, and effective ball denial one-on-one defense. Blanket and frustrate her with DiDi Richards. For the 2019-20 season Richards was named WBCA Defensive Player of the Year and Naismith Defensive Player of the Year Award as well as Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year.
      2. On defense Bueckers is easily beaten by quick fast guards (see Seton Hall's Park-Lane). Force switches so Bueckers has to guard Ursin Moon (Park-Lane type). If UCONN goes zone, simply move Moon to Bueckers and exploit her. Get Bueckers in foul trouble. She will oblige.
      3. Result: Bueckers neutralized. 8 or fewer points, 3 or less assists, 5 or more turnovers, 4 or less rebounds.
   2. Nelson-Ododa is the inside presence for the UCONN offense, second highest scorer and best rebounder.
      1. On defense guard Ododa with Queen Egbo who is more athletic and quicker. Since UCONN has no three point option, more like 15 feet and out, crowd the paint when the ball goes into Ododa. Force her to pass back out to UCONN's inffective shooters which is any player not name Bueckers. Of course DiDi has her covered.
      2. On offense have Egbo use her quickness and leaping ability to score and to foul out Ododa. Go at Ododa. She will obligingly commit a silly foul or five. If she does not foul out she will play loose defense (Ole!) for fear of fouling out.
      3. Result: Ododa neutralized. 10 or fewer points, 3 or less assists, 5 or more turnovers, 6 or fewer rebounds, fouled out.
   3. Exploit UCONN's ineffective three point shooting which includes two point shots 15 to 19 feet.
      1. Pack the defense inside 15 feet. Stop guard drives and Ododa's scoring. Use man-to-man or a box and one with Richards dogging Bueckers. UCONN will be reduced to passing the ball around the perimeter only to toss up a desperation three pointer as the shot clock runs out.
      2. Let UCONN embarrass themselves with long range misses.
      3. Result: UCONN's top two scoring threats will be shutdown. UCONN's offense will be sorely disrupted by Richards effectively removing Bueckers from the game. UCONN's defense will take care of itself (see their coaches own words).

Wow, I hope will be able to score a basket or two!

 

[EdSaid]

KM is no slouch. If I couldn't have GA I would have her as my coach.

No crowd is an advantage for UConn.

 

[hoophuskee]

UConn scored 75 against DePaul at home but they're going to reach 81 at Baylor?

Huh??????? You're implying that one game defines the next while ignoring that Arkansas put up 83 against them but that no longer counts?

And you said before that UCONN has little to no size to counter Baylor? Huh? What are Liv and Edwards?

How many players can Baylor stuff in the paint on a single possession?

 

[cferraro04]

UConn scored 75 against DePaul at home but they're going to reach 81 at Baylor?

DePaul didn't turn it into a track meet like they usually do...so the scoring was lower that is why DePaul only scored 52 points.

 

[cferraro04]

Olivia Nelson Ododo (JR) - 6'5" (23.2 minutes) 17.2 points; 8.7 rebounds;
Anne Makurat (SO) - 6'2" (30.2 minutes) 5.8 points; 4.7 rebounds
Evina Westbrook (RS JR) - 6'0" (30.3 minutes) 9.5 points; 4.8 rebounds
Paige Buekers (FR) - 5'11" (35 minutes) 18.2 points; 6.0 rebounds
Christyn Williams (JR) - 5'10" (36 minutes) 17.0 points; 6.0 rebounds

Aaliyah Edwards (FR) - 6'3" (16 minutes) 10.2 points; 4.2 rebounds
Aubrey Griffin (SO) - 6'1" (15.5 minutes) 5.8 points; 3.3 rebounds
Nika Muhl (FR) - 5'10" (11 minutes) 0.0 points; 0.7 rebounds
Mir MacLean (FR) - 5'11" (6.3 minutes) 4.3 points; 2.2 rebounds

Queen Egbo (JR) - 6'3" (19.6 minutes) 13.4 points; 7.7 rebounds
NaLyssa Smith (JR) - 6'2" (27.0 minutes) 17.3 points; 9.3 rebounds
Di Di Richards (SR) - 6'1" (25.7 minutes) 7.1 points; 3.0 rebounds
Caitlin Bickle (JR) - 6'0" (20.1 minutes) 5.9 points; 6.9 rebounds
Ursin Moon (SR) - 5'6" (24.9 minutes) 7.6 points; 5.0 rebounds

Trinity Oliver (JR) - 5'9" (21.6 minutes) 7.1 points; 3.0 rebounds
DiJonai Carrington (SR) - 5'11" (19.5 minutes) 12.0 points; 4.0 rebounds
Hannah Gusters (FR) - 6'5" (14.4 minutes) 10.6 points; 1.8 rebounds
Oliver Jordyn (SO) - 5'10" (15.0 minutes) 5.5 points; 3.3 rebounds
Sarah Andrews (FR) - 5'6" (14.9 minutes) 5.4 points; 2.4 rebounds
Jaden Owens (SO) - 5'8" (12.0 minutes) 3.5 points; 1.5 rebounds

A couple of observations:

Baylor averages 90.3 points per game while holding their opponents to 48.9
UConn averages 87.0 points per game while holding their opponents to 49.7
Baylor's scoring margin is 41.7
UConn's scoring margin is 37.3
Baylor shoots 28 for 98 from three for a .286 percentage from three (3.5/game)
UConn shoots 37 for 111 from three for a .333 percentage from three (6.2/game)
Baylor shoots .504 from the floor
UConn shoots .537 from the floor
Baylor shoots 126 for 184 from the line for a .685 average
UConn shoots 75 for 111 from the line for a .676 average
Baylor gets 53.1 rebounds per game
UConn gets 45.5 rebounds per game
Baylor gets 26.1 assists per game
UConn gets 22.7 assists per game
Baylor turns the ball over 16.8 times for a 1.6 Assist / TO ratio (points off turnovers 27)
UConn turns the ball over 15.7 times for a 1.4 Assist / TO ratio (points off turnovers 24)
Baylor gets 13.1 steals per game
UConn gets 10.3 steals per game
Baylor gets 5.3 blocks per game
UConn gets 5.2 blocks per game

Baylor's advantages are lots of seniors and junior leadership; Baylor gets to the line more often than UConn; Baylor plays an aggressive defense getting steals and causing turnovers only a little better than UConn.

UConn's advantages: They are a little better shooting team, they hit more 3s per game, they take care of the basketball a little better than Baylor.

This game will come down to match-ups. While Baylor is more mature with more seniors and juniors than UConn. UConn is extremely talented. I do not agree that the game plan posted earlier for beating UConn is as easily achievable as the poster seem to indicate. I believe game plans are good and necessary but the match-ups and the individual performances that day are the "x" factor. Who will step up for UConn will Christyn Williams have a record day? Will Aubrey Griffin find her stride? Will Olivia stay out of foul trouble and prove she belongs in the conversation for one of the best bigs in the country? Will Evina show why she was so successful in Tennessee? Will Paige Buekers prove why she was number one coming out of high school or will she get nervous on the big stage and suddenly remember that she is only a freshman? Will Makurat find her 3 point shot? And will Aaliyah Edwards continue to impress? There are a lot of variables here that make the aforementioned game plan more difficult than it appears.

Keep in mind Baylor heretofore has successfully spread the minutes out among 11 players, which they can do with such a heavily laden upper classmen team while UConn because of their youth has concentrated the minutes among 8 players. I don't expect to see Baylor continue to spread the minutes in this game they will shorten their bench and give more minutes to their producers. It should be noted that Carrington is only 10 for 36 from 3 point land.

Olivia Nelson-Ododo vs Queen Egbo...this will be a great match-up and I think if Olivia can stay out of foul trouble she can win this match-up...slight ADVANTAGE UCONN

Anne Makurat vs NaLyssa Smith - I think NaLyssa Smith is too athletic for Anne and either Aubrey or Aaliyah will need to be called in. ADVANTAGE BAYLOR

Evina Westbrook vs Di Di Richards - this will be a great match-up as well. I think this match-up will be somewhat EVEN

Paige Buekers vs Ursin Moon - Here we have a Senior vs a Freshman...I look look for Ursin to cause problems for Paige and hopefully Paige can stay out of foul trouble. But, at the end of the day Paige will be Paige. ADVANTAGE UCONN

Christyn Williams vs Caitlin Bickle - I am looking for Christyn to have a big game she will show why she was number one coming out of high school. ADVANTAGE UCONN

Bench - Baylor's bench is much deeper than UConn's - Big ADVANTAGE FOR BAYLOR

I think UConn will win this game 81 to 77

One correction to the above...it appears that Trinity Oliver usually starts over Caitlin Bickle...however, Trinity is a bit smaller than Caitlin at 5'9' (better for Christyn Williams..5'10"). Trinity scores slightly better at 7.0 instead of 5.9; and she her rebounding is slightly less at 4.0 instead of Caitlin's 6.1. These players are somewhat interchangeable in the grand scale of things...so, my prediction of a big game for Christyn and a clear advantage for UConn at this position remains.

 

[Bigboote]

I’m not sure where the doom and gloom comes from about ONO vs Egbo. I believe Liv’s numbers are better across the board. Maybe Egbo should be worrying about Liv?

I didn't mean to sound doom and gloom (I certainly don't feel it), merely saying that if I were Mulkey I'd try to get UConn's second-leading scorer into foul trouble. Liv has a history of foul trouble, and she's averaging 2.5 fouls in 23 minutes a game without having seen a really good post player this year. If she's able to stay on the court for 30 minutes and Edwards is there with her for much of that, I think UConn wins.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

Huh??????? You're implying that one game defines the next while ignoring that Arkansas put up 83 against them but that no longer counts?

And you said before that UCONN has little to no size to counter Baylor? Huh? What are Liv and Edwards?

How many players can Baylor stuff in the paint on a single possession?

One game, no, but UConn hasn't faced anyone particularly good outside of DePaul.

As for ONO and Edwards, that's two players, one a freshman who has yet to be tested against a top-5 caliber team. And you might recall ONO's significant troubles against Baylor last year. Yes, Cox is no longer around but others from that team are.

As for Arkansas, they forced 22 Baylor turnovers in that game and hit 30 of 39 free throws, and still only scored 83 points. UConn is averaging 12.5 free throw points a game against subpar competition. They will not approach Arkansas' attempts or makes from the stripe so they are going to have to convert shots to score anything close to 83 points.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

DePaul didn't turn it into a track meet like they usually do...so the scoring was lower that is why DePaul only scored 52 points.

That's why UConn didn't score 111 like Louisville did. But the reason they only put up 75 points was because they were terrible from the field (40%) and the line (50%).

 

[cferraro04]

That's why UConn didn't score 111 like Louisville did. But the reason they only put up 75 points was because they were terrible from the field (40%) and the line (50%).

Fair enough! But, do you expect UConn to continue shooting terribly from the field or do you expect to find their rhythm and for their shots to start falling. They have been getting open shots.

 

[heavyhusky]

As for our "poor shooting", our ave. for the season on 3's is right at 40%, which is not shabby and is where I expect if to pretty much stay. Our overall fg % is about 48%, which I do expect to see improve as the other players get more accustomed to Paige's no-look and unexpected passes. The fact that we hit a lower percentage of 3's against DePaul is no reason to panic; 3 point shooting tends to be streaky, for all teams at this level. Some games we will be over 50%, some under 30. And there is really nothing to be done about it. The fact is, sometimes the ball goes in, ans sometimes it doesn't.

What have you been smoking? Our average through the six games to date from behind the arc is 33.3%. Our overall shooting average is 53.7%. Our shooting average inside the arc is 62%! This is computed from the stats on the UConn website.

 

[hoophuskee]

One game, no, but UConn hasn't faced anyone particularly good outside of DePaul.

As for ONO and Edwards, that's two players, one a freshman who has yet to be tested against a top-5 caliber team. And you might recall ONO's significant troubles against Baylor last year. Yes, Cox is no longer around but others from that team are.

As for Arkansas, they forced 22 Baylor turnovers in that game and hit 30 of 39 free throws, and still only scored 83 points. UConn is averaging 12.5 free throw points a game against subpar competition. They will not approach Arkansas' attempts or makes from the stripe so they are going to have to convert shots to score anything close to 83 points.

All I was saying is that you seemed very surprised that UCONN could score 80+ points vs Baylor by using the last game as reference. When you're a top 5 caliber team the last game in terms of points scored has little value. SO my question still stands-- you think the last game matters so much that you'd be extremely surprised that UCONN puts up 80+?? After all the basketball you have seen in your life - you cant fathom a top 5 team scoring more vs a tougher opponent the next game they play early in the season?

Secondly, you said UCONN "almost has no size" compared to Baylor. That was the issue I replied to. Sure maybe nether Liv and Edwards doesn't perform well. That goes for any player. But I specifically referred to your comment of size not performance. UCONN has the size, correct?

 

[Sluconn Husky]

All I was saying is that you seemed very surprised that UCONN could score 80+ points vs Baylor by using the last game as reference. When you're a top 5 caliber team the last game in terms of points scored has little value. SO my question still stands-- you think the last game matters so much that you'd be extremely surprised that UCONN puts up 80+?? After all the basketball you have seen in your life - you cant fathom a top 5 team scoring more vs a tougher opponent the next game they play early in the season?

Secondly, you said UCONN "almost has no size" compared to Baylor. That was the issue I replied to. Sure maybe nether Liv and Edwards doesn't perform well. That goes for any player. But I specifically referred to your comment of size not performance. UCONN has the size, correct?

My point is that DePaul is not, in theory, a good defensive team and UConn's offense was pretty lousy. I haven't seen anything yet that tells me scoring against Baylor won't be a chore.

As for size, I believe UConn is undersized in that matchup, not as much as last year with Cox gone, but still smaller.

 

[hoophuskee]

My point is that DePaul is not, in theory, a good defensive team and UConn's offense was pretty lousy. I haven't seen anything yet that tells me scoring against Baylor won't be a chore.

As for size, I believe UConn is undersized in that matchup, not as much as last year with Cox gone, but still smaller.

Okay it's just that you made it sound like that there's no shot for UCONN to put up 80+ vs Baylor primarily because of the DePaul game. While Baylor did give up over 80 vs Arkansas. I wouldn't predict 80+ for UCONN either but Baylor is not a pro team. We can't just dismiss the Arkansas game as a fluke in one breath then hold the UCON-DePaul game as a confirmation that UCONN can't score in another. In other words "Baylor plays bad and it's a fluke." Conversely, "UCONN plays bad and it's confirmation."

And you made it sound like UCONN is woefully small - yet Liv at 6'5 was an Honorable Mention All-American and Edwards definitely has size. They aren't going against Bill Walton, Bill Russell and Hakeem Olajuwon in the paint. Baylor is bigger but UCONN has some decent size.

 

[Ex Nutmegger]

Ferraro04 provided a comprehensive comparison of the Baylor team‘s season to date to UConn. Thank you for all that data Sensei! I looked at one comparative stat - Scoring Margin.

Baylor beat two of it’s eight opponents to date, Northeastern LA State and McNeese State by 93 points each(that’s right, by the same ridiculous margin). The reason for that same huge margin becomes clear when we note that these two teams are right next to each other in the Massey rankings - at the very bottom! Yes, they are #354 and #355 on the Massey list - dead last and next to dead last. Way to pick ‘em Kim(or should I say,”way to pick on them, Kim!)

If you remove these two Junior High teams from Baylor’s equation their Scoring Margin drops from 41.7 to 24.5, still high, but not exceptional and nowhere near UConn’s 37.3. I don’t think these guys are near the same tier as UConn, and probably Stanford.

 

[mattlow710]

Sarah Andrews24	G	5' 6"	FR	Irving, TX
Caitlin Bickle51	F	6' 0"	JR	Cave Creek, AZ
DiJonai Carrington21	G	5' 11"	SR	San Diego, CA
Queen Egbo25	C	6' 3"	JR	Houston, TX
Hannah Gusters20	C	6' 5"	FR	Dallas, TX
Kamaria McDaniel22	G	5' 10"	SR	Inkster, MI
Jordyn Oliver11	G	5' 10"	SO	Prosper, TX
Trinity Oliver3	G	5' 9"	JR	Euless, TX
Jaden Owens10	G	5' 8"	SO	Plano, TX
DiDi Richards2	G	6' 1"	SR	Cypress, TX
NaLyssa Smith1	F	6' 2"	JR	Converse, TX
Moon Ursin12	G	5' 6"	SR	Destrehan, LA

are Baylor size bigger than Uconn?

 

[temery]

We shot 41% from the floor 30% from 3 didnt look good which I attribute to the long layoff and coming off injuries and won by 23. Thats how good we are. We didnt look great and still won big. We have another long layoff before Baylor. Not bad and plenty of room for improvement. I wll repeat myself and say we need Evina Anna and Griff to score consistently and they will have to against Baylor. We are too dependent on Liv Paige and CW. We pass the ball really well thus better then deserved shooting percentages. The girls need to think, " I want to take the shot" before the ball gets to them and then take the shot without hesitation. Hesitation is caused by doubt because of lack of confidence in knowing what to do. When that happens, forget it, chances are pretty good you will miss. We did play well and won by 23pts and it couldve been alot more, however coudve beens dont work. You have to "make it happen". Our defense was good, our passing was good, we had height and thats why we won.

Depaul played very good defense espeically on Paige. They couldnt stop Liv. Paige got her points because shes that good and only a freshman. The rest of the team needs to learn how to get their points like Paige does. Many posts talk about the hesitation before shooting. Thats because they arent looking to shoot theyre looking to pass and hope to find someone open and thats fine but you have to have a "mindset that you want the ball and you want to score." They all had that mindset in HS thats why theyre at UConn.

The Baylor game will be a good test andwill be after another long layoff, and will be on the road. Im expecting some players to step up to the challange and not wait for somebody else to step up. Its our biggest game so far this season and thats why these kids are here. We have 2 hs number 1's a hs number 2 and a hs number 5. They better be looking to stand out against Baylor. The ole saying "if its to be,its up to me" needs to come into play in their heads. They cant wait for someone else to score they have to think I have to score because the team is depending on me. In this game the light should go on in their heads. Theyre too good for it not to in a big game like Baylor. When the lights go on in their heads the lights against opponents will go out because we're that good and they just dont get that yet.

AE got the minutes shes earned and I like her alot. If we play her with Liv for long lengths and they both get in foul trouble that puts UConn in trouble. Alternating them and playing them together for limited minutes keeps them out of foul trouble. Starting both of them at this point in the season maybe not be wise. Later in the season may be a better time.

Bottom line I see UConn with 4-5 players in double figures against Baylor. I see Liv with a double double and I see Edwards with big numbers. Because of our passing and ball handlers I think we beat Baylor by double digets. Alot will depend on others stepping up.

Please do not use one word titles. Say what the thread is about.

 

[Skeets]

Please do not use one word titles. Say what the thread is about.

If the post is from TonyC we all know what the post is about

 

[temery]

If the post is from TonyC we all know what the post is about

But the search engines dont. Accurate thread titles increase traffic, and don't confuse me.

 

[Jmsdawg]

Geno is the answer to UConn beating Baylor. Barring any major flop UConn wins by double digets. I dont care about stats its UConn Baylor and Geno is pretty good at winning big games. He is the difference.

Agree, I think UConn is also the better team. I am really impressed with Paige.