Would Celtics' 3-Dominant Offense Work For The 2024-25 Huskies?

[JoePgh]

I suspect that I'm not the only one on this board who has followed the Celtics for much of the past year, and specifically in the NBA playoffs this spring. They are now 2 games away from an NBA championship. Although they have a lot of strengths, one that they are known for is that around 40-45% of their shot attempts are from 3-points range. That reflects the fact that their coach, New Englander Joe Mazzulla, has paid attention to the analytics that say that 3-point shots are almost always the optimal choice over any alternative except a dunk or a layup -- the shooting percentage on 3's is close enough to the shooting percentage on midrange 2's that the expected points per possession will be higher in proportion to the number of 3's that are taken.

In a game like last night's Game 2 against Dallas, where the Celtics went 2-14 from 3-point range in the first half and 6-26 for the game, this faith in analytics can be tested. (It helps if the opponents also have a miserable 3-point shooting night, and the Mavericks cooperated last night and provided that.)

But as a UConn WBB fan who looks at the current roster and sees a depth of 3-point shooting that has rarely been seen since at least the days of Breanna - KML - Bria, you have to ask whether Geno should pay attention to what Joe Mazzulla is doing. (I think he is; he was at the game last night.)

If you assume as I do that Sarah is almost guaranteed to be the starter at the 4 position, and if the 1, 2, and 3 position minutes are split mostly among Paige / Azzi / Kaitlyn / Ashlynn / Caroline / Allie / Qadence, then UConn's firepower from the 3-point line, relative to its competition, will be in the same class as what the Celtics have. Geno has always said that he wants about a third of UConn's shots to be 3-point attempts, but will he raise that target given the talent and depth of this team?

I think it is an option worth serious consideration. An additional factor in its favor is that UConn's guards and small forwards have shown a talent for rebounding, so even 3-point misses do not necessarily represent a lost possession.

 

[Bone Dog]

I think historically Geno's teams have tended toward 1/3 of total shots being from 3. I don't think he's going to do much to change that. That 2:1 ratio is kinda built in to the way they run set plays. Of course, since players like Azzi Sarah Allie and even Paige are really confident shooters from the perimeter, a shift may happen automatically without him changing much.

 

[Alydar]

UConn has been taking 3's at about 30-33% of their fg attempts for years. Either last year or the year before UConn commented that he expected them to shoot 3's more than that, but when Fudd & Ducharme went down his plans changed. If the 4 players listed above are all healthy it's going to be a 3pt party this coming year. When you have multiple players on the court who are able to shoot open 3's at 45-50% consistently and the defense can't face guard them all they are going to get a lot of really good looks and UConn will have very very few games if any where all of them are cold.

I expect to see Ziebell, Strong & Cheli to play a lot this season. Last year the rotation was 3 seniors and 4 1st year players. Geno made a comment recently after seeing the 1st workout. He said from what he saw in the scrimmaging and from how the freshmen performed last year he was changing his mind about trusting 1st year players. Last year he had no choice but to play them and I think he was surprised to get to the FF and even though he is an old dog he can still learn new tricks. Geno doesn't often change his opening game starters during the season except for injuries and I have no idea who the 5 will be but I think that we will be looking forward to the subs doing a lot more than give the starters a rest. In fact I think that no one will put up standout pts/game stats. Instead we will have four players or more having 30pt games.

There is an old 3 stooges joke where MO asks Curley to choose his method of execution between beheading and being burned at the stake. Curley doesn't hesitate in choosing burning, saying that "a hot steak is always better than a cold chop". UConn's opponents are going to feel like being hit by a tidal wave where one wave is followed by another and another. Pick your poison.

 

[hoophuskee]

I don't think it will be like the Celtics. UCONN's Bigs have to learn how to low post. In the Big East this year UCONN still had Edwards scored a lot in the lane. And she took many mid-range shots too. But players come to learn along with UCONN looks to develop players so they just don't sit at the 3point line while the Celtics props are paid to sit at the 3pt line to support the superstar.

 

[Jim]

Shooting a lot of 3’s with a smattering of back door layups and you are talking about the Creighton offense. When you are hot from outside the arc, you can beat anyone. When you are cold from outside and the opponent packs the paint taking away the layups, you can lose to anyone.

For a championship run you need to play different styles to take advantage of the skills on your roster and exploit the opponents’ weaknesses. On a given night that might be a lot of threes or it could be that you keep pounding it inside. There is no need to predominately play only one particular style.

 

[reelfan]

It appears that the ingredients are there for UCONN to employ this style against some opponents.

 

[HuskyNan]

Found this today

 

[Bone Dog]

Found this today

View attachment 101569

Well, Geno certainly has the roster to run an effective 5-out set, and he can do it tall or short. But I suspect he's more likely to favor a 4-out set for at least long stretches.

I can picture a 5-out group of Paige Azzi Caroline Allie and Sarah. Tall enough to challenge ordinary lineups on defense, but with elite perimeter shooting skills. You can see there might not be room for Ayanna Ice Aubrey, and maybe even KK, in this set. But Kaitlyn Ash Q Morgan and Jana could sub in to it.

For a 4-out group, the bigs would have more of a role.

 

[HuskyNan]

Well, Geno certainly has the roster to run an effective 5-out set, and he can do it tall or short. But I suspect he's more likely to favor a 4-out set for at least long stretches.

I can picture a 5-out group of Paige Azzi Caroline Allie and Sarah. Tall enough to challenge ordinary lineups on defense, but with elite perimeter shooting skills. You can see there might not be room for Ayanna Ice Aubrey, and maybe even KK, in this set. But Kaitlyn Ash Q Morgan and Jana could sub in to it.

For a 4-out group, the bigs would have more of a role.

Jana has a nice looking 3 ball, too. Ice is also capable of hitting from the perimeter

 

[Bone Dog]

Jana has a nice looking 3 ball, too. Ice is also capable of hitting from the perimeter

I agree. Though I don't think either of them is as proficient Paige Azzi Allie Sarah Q Caroline. I think Ice shot 25%, which is perhaps on the low side for this sort of assignment. Of course, she didn't take many, so the data set may be too small in her case. I also wonder if Kaitlyn will up her perimeter game too, given the competitive environment she's just entered. And I missed KK who shot better than I realized at 33%. So Geno has a lot of potential shooters.

 

[Jim R]

Shooting a lot of 3’s with a smattering of back door layups and you are talking about the Creighton offense. When you are hot from outside the arc, you can beat anyone. When you are cold from outside and the opponent packs the paint taking away the layups, you can lose to anyone.

For a championship run you need to play different styles to take advantage of the skills on your roster and exploit the opponents’ weaknesses. On a given night that might be a lot of threes or it could be that you keep pounding it inside. There is no need to predominately play only one particular style.

Excellent discussion on the options we have and how Muzzulla’s and Stevens blueprint may be just what we need with our 3 point capabilities…..and I won’t disagree, but, I’d love to see us use an offense that looks like Hurley’s, not only effective, and a joy to watch, but, it makes the opponents work their tails off. And while we’ve leaned on Paige, tirelessly over that past couple of years, if healthy, the rest of our play makers will make her job a bit easier, and require our opponents to stay home instead of doubling her. I’m simply praying we stay healthy

 

[NycUcWbbFan]

Roster is destiny.

• the 2009-10 roster (Maya Moore and Tina Charles) played with 53 FGA per game with 28% coming from threes (33% accuracy).
• the 2014-15 roster (KML’s senior year) played with 64 FGA# per game with 32% coming from threes (41% accuracy).

From a sheer numbers perspective, the 2024-25 roster can approach 36% #2 based on current player propensity and an assumption that the 3 mobile bigs #4 are more comfortable with the three than Breanna and Morgan:

• KK Arnold: 33% at 33% accuracy
• Kaitlyn Chen: 16% at 29% accuracy
• Azzi Fudd: 55% at 39% accuracy
• Ashlynn Shade: 52% at 36% accuracy
• Paige Bueckers: 32% at 42% accuracy #3
• Qadence Samuels: 42% at 35% accuracy
• Caroline Ducharme: 45% at 31% accuracy
• Aubrey Griffin: 15% at 24% accuracy

I have a sense that Geno was quite pleasantly surprised with his 3 point guard lineup. With many players with a point mentality on the roster, and his newfound epiphany on the wonders of rest and a roster that indulges it, I am looking forward to how his defense will be relentless and his team’s FG (including 3-pt) accuracy will increase.

#1 Gabby and Kia Stokes who didn’t shoot threes, accounted for 8.3% of FGAs. The 3-pt propensity were KML at 63%, Breanna at 20%, Morgan at 18%, Moriah at 34%, Kia Nurse at 45%, Saniyah at 56%.

#2 Based on 65 FGAs per game, a distribution of shot attempts per 1-5 positions as follows (10, 15, 15, 15, 10) and a propensity of (33%, 50%, 33%, 33%, 25%).

#3 Paige also relies on her pull-ups and crafty twos.

#4 I don’t consider Ice's glue freshman performance as prologue to her career.

 

[Bone Dog]

And while we’ve leaned on Paige, tirelessly over that past couple of years, if healthy, the rest of our play makers will make her job a bit easier, and require our opponents to stay home instead of doubling her.

If only Azzi makes it all the way back to her sophomore year form, this will be sufficient to bring it about. When it was just her -- no Paige and Lou not quite up to speed -- she commanded the attention of at least two players whenever she touched the ball inside the arc. If Paige and Azzi are on the floor together, it will be single coverage on everyone else at best. And if Ash or Allie or Caroline or Q is out there with them, I just don't see how any team will cope. It will be KK and Kaitlyn's shared challenge -- make that offense work.

And to @NycUcWbbFan , I've been looking at the percentages this morning and I think Azzi's 39% is not fully representative. I suspect if she comes back, we'll see numbers more like her freshman year: 43% or better. I also have a feeling Ash's 36% will go up as she gets more lightly contested looks at the basket. Same for Q. The real question for me is if Kaitlyn's 29% and KK's 33% will go up too. I think it will just because they'll be open more.

 

[HuskyNan]

Roster is destiny.

• the 2009-10 roster (Maya Moore and Tina Charles) played with 53 FGA per game with 28% coming from threes (33% accuracy).
• the 2014-15 roster (KML’s senior year) played with 64 FGA# per game with 32% coming from threes (41% accuracy).

From a sheer numbers perspective, the 2024-25 roster can approach 36% #2 based on current player propensity and an assumption that the 3 mobile bigs #4 are more comfortable with the three than Breanna and Morgan:

• KK Arnold: 33% at 33% accuracy
• Kaitlyn Chen: 16% at 29% accuracy
• Azzi Fudd: 55% at 39% accuracy
• Ashlynn Shade: 52% at 36% accuracy
• Paige Bueckers: 32% at 42% accuracy #3
• Qadence Samuels: 42% at 35% accuracy
• Caroline Ducharme: 45% at 31% accuracy
• Aubrey Griffin: 15% at 24% accuracy

I have a sense that Geno was quite pleasantly surprised with his 3 point guard lineup. With many players with a point mentality on the roster, and his newfound epiphany on the wonders of rest and a roster that indulges it, I am looking forward to how his defense will be relentless and his team’s FG (including 3-pt) accuracy will increase.

#1 Gabby and Kia Stokes who didn’t shoot threes, accounted for 8.3% of FGAs. The 3-pt propensity were KML at 63%, Breanna at 20%, Morgan at 18%, Moriah at 34%, Kia Nurse at 45%, Saniyah at 56%.

#2 Based on 65 FGAs per game, a distribution of shot attempts per 1-5 positions as follows (10, 15, 15, 15, 10) and a propensity of (33%, 50%, 33%, 33%, 25%).

#3 Paige also relies on her pull-ups and crafty twos.

#4 I don’t consider Ice's glue freshman performance as prologue to her career.

• Jana was 27.3% from three last summer (6-22)
• Allie's FIBA stats show a 37.8% three point FG%
• USA Basketball shows Morgan with 10% but on few attempts
• Per Gatorade, Sarah shot 40.9% from the perimeter

 

[yhun89]

• USA Basketball shows Morgan with 10% but on few attempts
• Per Gatorade, Sarah shot 40.9% from the perimeter

How many attempts? Single digits? Reportedly she's been training her shot.

That's an insane % for someone who isn't even a guard.

 

[hoopsfan22]

Well, Geno certainly has the roster to run an effective 5-out set, and he can do it tall or short. But I suspect he's more likely to favor a 4-out set for at least long stretches.

I can picture a 5-out group of Paige Azzi Caroline Allie and Sarah. Tall enough to challenge ordinary lineups on defense, but with elite perimeter shooting skills. You can see there might not be room for Ayanna Ice Aubrey, and maybe even KK, in this set. But Kaitlyn Ash Q Morgan and Jana could sub in to it.

For a 4-out group, the bigs would have more of a role.

The only elite perimeter shooter on this team is Paige. Everyone else is well below 40% from 3 for their careers, and Allie and Sarah have played zero minutes of college basketball so no one knows what kind of shooter they are yet.

 

[sno-cat]

I suspect that I'm not the only one on this board who has followed the Celtics for much of the past year, and specifically in the NBA playoffs this spring. They are now 2 games away from an NBA championship. Although they have a lot of strengths, one that they are known for is that around 40-45% of their shot attempts are from 3-points range. That reflects the fact that their coach, New Englander Joe Mazzulla, has paid attention to the analytics that say that 3-point shots are almost always the optimal choice over any alternative except a dunk or a layup -- the shooting percentage on 3's is close enough to the shooting percentage on midrange 2's that the expected points per possession will be higher in proportion to the number of 3's that are taken.

In a game like last night's Game 2 against Dallas, where the Celtics went 2-14 from 3-point range in the first half and 6-26 for the game, this faith in analytics can be tested. (It helps if the opponents also have a miserable 3-point shooting night, and the Mavericks cooperated last night and provided that.)

But as a UConn WBB fan who looks at the current roster and sees a depth of 3-point shooting that has rarely been seen since at least the days of Breanna - KML - Bria, you have to ask whether Geno should pay attention to what Joe Mazzulla is doing. (I think he is; he was at the game last night.)

If you assume as I do that Sarah is almost guaranteed to be the starter at the 4 position, and if the 1, 2, and 3 position minutes are split mostly among Paige / Azzi / Kaitlyn / Ashlynn / Caroline / Allie / Qadence, then UConn's firepower from the 3-point line, relative to its competition, will be in the same class as what the Celtics have. Geno has always said that he wants about a third of UConn's shots to be 3-point attempts, but will he raise that target given the talent and depth of this team?

I think it is an option worth serious consideration. An additional factor in its favor is that UConn's guards and small forwards have shown a talent for rebounding, so even 3-point misses do not necessarily represent a lost possession.

You may be on to something. I saw Geno on TV at the 2nd Celtics playoff game watching Joe Mazzulla coach!

 

[meyers7]

As a team, UCONN shot 36% last year (from the 3). Add in Fudd, Ziebell and Strong. And if Shade and Samuels can improve a little. And if Ducharme can come back. ..... this could be a pretty good 3 pt shooting team.

 

[HuskyNan]

How many attempts? Single digits? Reportedly she's been training her shot.

That's an insane % for someone who isn't even a guard.

Doesn't say.

Sarah is going to drive opposing coaches crazy. Put a guard on her for quickness on the perimeter and Sarah can muscle them out of the way in the paint. She's deceptively quick, too, so forwards are going to have to work to keep up with her. Ah, well, not our problem

https://playeroftheyear.gatorade.com/winner/sarah-strong/39583#:~:text=Athletic%20Excellence&text=Strong%20averaged%2022.6%20points%2C%2013.9,Ranked%20as%20the%20nation's%20No.

 

[NycUcWbbFan]

The only elite perimeter shooter on this team is Paige. Everyone else is well below 40% from 3 for their careers, and Allie and Sarah have played zero minutes of college basketball so no one knows what kind of shooter they are yet.

I guess Moriah Jefferson’s experience is non-replicable?

 

[NycUcWbbFan]

If only Azzi makes it all the way back to her sophomore year form, this will be sufficient to bring it about. When it was just her -- no Paige and Lou not quite up to speed -- she commanded the attention of at least two players whenever she touched the ball inside the arc. If Paige and Azzi are on the floor together, it will be single coverage on everyone else at best. And if Ash or Allie or Caroline or Q is out there with them, I just don't see how any team will cope. It will be KK and Kaitlyn's shared challenge -- make that offense work.

And to @NycUcWbbFan , I've been looking at the percentages this morning and I think Azzi's 39% is not fully representative. I suspect if she comes back, we'll see numbers more like her freshman year: 43% or better. I also have a feeling Ash's 36% will go up as she gets more lightly contested looks at the basket. Same for Q. The real question for me is if Kaitlyn's 29% and KK's 33% will go up too. I think it will just because they'll be open more.

I agree with you. The numbers I quoted are meant to set expectations on the floor. With a stacked roster that unshackles some of Geno’s dumbed down restrictions on his offense, I am excited to see prolonged beautiful basketball again.

I do read and enjoy your thought experiments on lineups. My brain hurts sometimes but it’s a beautiful hurt.

 

[hoophuskee]

College basketball is not the NBA. For example, freshmen aren't necessarily 32% 3pt shooters. Especially come freshmen time. And some players just aren't 3 pt shooters. So would someone like Edwards if she were on this team be sent to the bench because she doesn’t shoot 3's/ Third-- these stats are "generalities." For example I can’t believe a healthy Paige or healthy Azzi taking a mid-range shot. That's why the original poster says "a; most always."

In the college game players that can't shoot 3's will almost always miss 3's - so it's a bad shot especially of 18/19 year olds. And I can't believe a Paige or a healthy/non freshman Azzi taking a mid-range 2 is supposedly worse than a 34% 2pt shooter (equal to 51% 2 pt shooter).

UCONN beat South Carolina during Paige's frosh year in which Paige scored 31 points. she was 1-6 from 3. Should she have felt that the 2's she was taking were bad shots? The same in her soph year vs NC State she sord 27 points on 10-15 shooting but was just 1-3 from 3. Were all the 2's that weren't layups bad shots?

The college game is not the pro game. And a lot of the players that are shooters aren’t elite athletes. And the elite athletes aren't shooters. It takes time for those non athletes to become much better deficiently while the greater athlete - it takes time for them to get their outside shot down. The college players are like an early technology company just starting to get earnings. Kids in high school are like a startup company with no earnings. The same rules that apply to pro needs to be tempered to college as does high school and further down.

 

[hoophuskee]

The only elite perimeter shooter on this team is Paige. Everyone else is well below 40% from 3 for their careers, and Allie and Sarah have played zero minutes of college basketball so no one knows what kind of shooter they are yet.

I doubrt Azzi wasn't shooting over 40% counting her frosh year and include her soph year before her injury. even you include the games she was healthy in her jr year and add up her soph year when healthy and her fosh year - it's probably over 40%.

 

[Bone Dog]

The college game is not the pro game. And a lot of the players that are shooters aren’t elite athletes. And the elite athletes aren't shooters. It takes time for those non athletes to become much better deficiently while the greater athlete - it takes time for them to get their outside shot down.

You reminded me of something that occurred to me while watching the Aces-Sparks game. A'ja Wilson is a great player. She was great in college too, but not the way she is now. I'm just struck by the freedom and daring she plays with now, especially on offense. Comparing her now to her game in college and it almost feels like she was playing in a straitjacket in college. I think this is true of a lot of bigs -- if they make it in the pros, it's like they have time and the encouragement to really take a leap. One big I don't think of this way is Stewie. Her college game was as free and daring as her pro game is now. She's just gotten a lot stronger. In college, I always thought Stewie was the better player, but now A'ja seems to have caught up to her and they're now the perennial competitors for the MVP.

But this may just be the case for bigs. For guards and forwards it may be a rather different story. They aren't quite so constrained in college. Their college skills simply translate better to the pro game, if they get a chance to show it.

I'm not sure how this translates for 3-pt shooters. I am struck by how well Kate Martin is playing. She was a recognized good player in college, but not celebrated at that level. And yet the Aces saw something in her and now she's getting good minutes and shooting 3s at a 39% clip.

 

[hoopsfan22]

I doubrt Azzi wasn't shooting over 40% counting her frosh year and include her soph year before her injury. even you include the games she was healthy in her jr year and add up her soph year when healthy and her fosh year - it's probably over 40%.

Azzi shot 43% her freshman season and 33% as a sophomore, or 38% for her career. Shade is right behind her at 36% having played almost the same number of games as Azzi.