WNBA Draft Lottery Aug 28

[j66kicker]

Lottery will be televised on ESPN2 Tuesday (Aug 28) at halftime of the Atlanta semifinal game.

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

I am not a fan of the Draft Lottery! I think the picks should go strictly by the Won/Lost record so the worst team gets the #1 pick every year!
One year when Parker was pregnant LA go Nneka O. and another year PHX got Griner because they had a lot of injuries both times the real worst teams got the 4th pick!

 

[HuskyFan1125]

I suspect a lot of trades and moving with this next draft year.

 

[eebmg]

Looking at some Mock Drafts at

2019 WNBA Mock Draft - WNBA - DraftSite.com if the lottery picks go the way the stats say they should

Did not know Ionescu was eligible.

 

[DallasBUFan]

Looking at some Mock Drafts at

2019 WNBA Mock Draft - WNBA - DraftSite.com if the lottery picks go the way the stats say they should

Did not know Ionescu was eligible.



View attachment 33917

That makes no sense as to needs. Everything I read from analyst/Journalist they think the 2 bigs and KLS will be top 3....I guess unless Ionescu declares early. However, Indiana needs a big desperately. They have good guards and perimeter shooting. They need a big that can help rebound and score.

Vegas I think could really use KLS or even another Big. I think KLS fits here.

Chicago could use a bigger dominant post also, NY could use the size two.

Unless Cambage comes doesn't back I am not sure why they need a big. Her and Stevens are 6'6 and 6'8. Need a good SG for the nights when Diggins-Smith isn't hitting. They really need a consistent 3rd scorer. The rookie of the year last year had an off season this year.

Minn well if Brunson goes they could use any that is good.

 

[bballnut90]

I am not a fan of the Draft Lottery! I think the picks should go strictly by the Won/Lost record so the worst team gets the #1 pick every year!
One year when Parker was pregnant LA go Nneka O. and another year PHX got Griner because they had a lot of injuries both times the real worst teams got the 4th pick!

This incentivizes teams to tank so they’ll get the top pick guaranteed. And these are isolated examples, it still usually works out where the worst team gets a top 2 pick.

 

[bballnut90]

That makes no sense as to needs. Everything I read from analyst/Journalist they think the 2 bigs and KLS will be top 3....I guess unless Ionescu declares early. However, Indiana needs a big desperately. They have good guards and perimeter shooting. They need a big that can help rebound and score.

Vegas I think could really use KLS or even another Big. I think KLS fits here.

Chicago could use a bigger dominant post also, NY could use the size two.

Unless Cambage comes doesn't back I am not sure why they need a big. Her and Stevens are 6'6 and 6'8. Need a good SG for the nights when Diggins-Smith isn't hitting. They really need a consistent 3rd scorer. The rookie of the year last year had an off season this year.

Minn well if Brunson goes they could use any that is good.

I love the idea of running mock draft sites, but to be honest, whoever runs this site always puts out garbage lists each year. Kalani Brown at 5 and Mariya Moore at 12...really? I’d bet big money Moore doesn’t sniff the top round and Brown goes top 3.

 

[MSSportsGuy]

That is an odd list and seems pointless given that we don't even know the order of the draft nor have players been declaring for the draft early outside of a few exceptions. This is based on what I've read and what I've observed about the season's stats.

Indiana has a decent perimeter game with Wheeler, the two Mitchells, Vivians and Pondexter seemed to have some good games for them. They need an inside presence and that could mean Brown or McCowan. Vegas needs a good forward so I could see Collier or KLS going there. Chicago could also use a forward, but I'm not sure would take a true center given the roster has Dolson and Coates, but they may give up on one or both.

The Liberty need a little of everything. Charles is their only true top player. The roster isn't lacking talent but none of their bevy of guards are really consistent scorers. Some are on the downside of their career due to age and injuries. Nurse had a good year and could still become a consistent scorer. We shall see.

Ionescu declaring would definitely be a game changer and the 19 draft has some very good players in it even without her but it would be tough to pass on her.

 

[HuskyFan1125]

Trades and free agency will play a huge role in the off season. Lots of big names on the free agency list including Tina Charles, Ángel McCoughtry, Vandersloot, Quigley, Maya Moore, BG, Dewanna Bonner, Alana Beard, Augustus, Brunson!

 

[Orangutan]

Trades and free agency will play a huge role in the off season. Lots of big names on the free agency list including Tina Charles, Ángel McCoughtry, Vandersloot, Quigley, Maya Moore, BG, Dewanna Bonner, Alana Beard, Augustus, Brunson!

Source? I'm thinking some of those folks aren't free agents. Quigley, Charles, Brunson, and Beard all were free agents last year. Would be surprised if they all signed one-year deals.

 

[Shades]

Looking at some Mock Drafts at

2019 WNBA Mock Draft - WNBA - DraftSite.com if the lottery picks go the way the stats say they should

Mine is among the user drafts, but I haven’t updated it since April. I should probably work on that if they’ve updated the draft order.

Did not know Ionescu was eligible.

She’s eligible but why would she declare, especially if she doesn’t win a championship this season? Hers is not the case of being a redshirt who has already been in college 4 years and probably will earn a degree before her eligibility is up. I just can’t see her declaring early. Jewell Loyd is the only similar situation I can think of offhand. But Loyd suffered from dyslexia, so I believe school was a struggle for her.

 

[Shades]

I love the idea of running mock draft sites, but to be honest, whoever runs this site always puts out garbage lists each year.

The WNBA doesn’t give them much traffic, so they don’t put a lot into it. I’m just happy they recognize and include WNBA at all.

Kalani Brown at 5 and Mariya Moore at 12...really? I’d bet big money Moore doesn’t sniff the top round and Brown goes top 3.

Hard to argue with that.

Should Mariya Moore get drafted before or after Marina Mabrey?

 

[Shades]

Source? I'm thinking some of those folks aren't free agents. Quigley, Charles, Brunson, and Beard all were free agents last year. Would be surprised if they all signed one-year deals.

To me, the only one that might be disputable is McCoughtry. Angel McCoughtry signs a multi-year contract with the Atlanta Dream, will return for 2018 season

 

[nwhoopfan]

That makes no sense as to needs.

Agreed. Why would LA pick a post player when they already have Parker, Ogwumike, Lavender and Vadeeva? Unless they stand to lose one or more of those players.

 

[Reypl21]

I hate how they put in Juniors just because they could go in the draft. Most kids will stay 4 years. In Ionescu's case, if they win it all next year why not try to repeat? That was the talk to Ogunbowale after their title run (which I don't know if she was eligible or not). She tweeted that she would stay to try to repeat.

@Shades I would take Mabrey before Moore, BUT if I was Seattle in that situation.... I'd take Brianna Turner. If she can stay healthy this year I don't see why she wouldn't be chosen in at least the first round.

 

[bballnut90]

Hard to argue with that.

Should Mariya Moore get drafted before or after Marina Mabrey?

Neither should be a 1st round rick. Right now I'd take Mabrey over Moore, as Marina projects better to be a 3pt specialist who also is a strong passer. Mabrey also brings an intensity/never back down attitude that will serve her well, while it was rumored that Moore had some chemistry issues while playing with Durr at Louisville. Moore regressed at Louisville, how she does this year at USC will be telling.

 

[DallasBUFan]

That is an odd list and seems pointless given that we don't even know the order of the draft nor have players been declaring for the draft early outside of a few exceptions. This is based on what I've read and what I've observed about the season's stats.

Indiana has a decent perimeter game with Wheeler, the two Mitchells, Vivians and Pondexter seemed to have some good games for them. They need an inside presence and that could mean Brown or McCowan. Vegas needs a good forward so I could see Collier or KLS going there. Chicago could also use a forward, but I'm not sure would take a true center given the roster has Dolson and Coates, but they may give up on one or both.

The Liberty need a little of everything. Charles is their only true top player. The roster isn't lacking talent but none of their bevy of guards are really consistent scorers. Some are on the downside of their career due to age and injuries. Nurse had a good year and could still become a consistent scorer. We shall see.

Ionescu declaring would definitely be a game changer and the 19 draft has some very good players in it even without her but it would be tough to pass on her.

I just think Chicago has good perimeter game, but need a Forward or Center to be a star. I just don't think Dolson or Coates which for me at this point Coates is a little over rated. I think a nice 6'7 center mixed in with Dolson would help the offense nicely. Kalani is a good passer and with the guards on the perimeter they could open them up for shots because of double teams.

IMO Differences between Brown & McCowan are that Brown is more a complete player in terms of offense, passing, and defense. She needs to continue to improve conditioning and has showed improvement each season. Baylor did not have depth in post last season so you played a lot of minutes.

McCowan is a tougher center when it comes to frame and being beat up in the paint. Probably the better rebounder, but at 6'7 if you are tallest it's a little easier. Her offensive game and passing aren't there quite yet. Maybe this next season we will see some mid range. Conditioning she can move up and down the floor quicker.

So which can make the adjustments to edge the other out? This year will dictate which goes first. Tierra IMO has the edge as the is the obvious star of the team. Where as Kalani is on a very balanced team with another stand out post player in Cox. So I think some of Tierra's number's could be stronger as she will need to carry her team. Baylor will have plenty of weapons with Brown being the dagger if she plays up to potential.

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

This incentivizes teams to tank so they’ll get the top pick guaranteed. And these are isolated examples, it still usually works out where the worst team gets a top 2 pick.

bballnut90- - - -Since the records for two years in a row count toward the draft order it will be very hard to "tank" 2x's in a row! The worst records should be guaranteed the best draftees! If the WNBA went worst record draft 1st Washington would have gotten Nneka O. and Tulsa would have gotten Griner which would have immediately improved those 2 teams! The worst team usually doesn't get the first pick even though they have more chances in the draft order!

 

[Shades]

bballnut90- - - -Since the records for two years in a row count toward the draft order it will be very hard to "tank" 2x's in a row! The worst records should be guaranteed the best draftees! If the WNBA went worst record draft 1st Washington would have gotten Nneka O. and Tulsa would have gotten Griner which would have immediately improved those 2 teams! The worst team usually doesn't get the first pick even though they have more chances in the draft order!

You’re assuming the team records would’ve remained the same had there been no anti-tanking deterrents in place. In seasons prior to a sure-bet prospect like Griner or Stewart being available, you could have mediocre teams making no effort to win in a race to the bottom. In a 12 team league, that would make for a particularly uninteresting seasons.

 

[bballnut90]

bballnut90- - - -Since the records for two years in a row count toward the draft order it will be very hard to "tank" 2x's in a row! The worst records should be guaranteed the best draftees! If the WNBA went worst record draft 1st Washington would have gotten Nneka O. and Tulsa would have gotten Griner which would have immediately improved those 2 teams! The worst team usually doesn't get the first pick even though they have more chances in the draft order!

That's my point--teams will tank if they know they aren't that good but are guaranteed to get a Griner/Stewart/Moore type of player. They wont be as likely to tank if a running 2 year average is taken. What's the incentive to win when you aren't a playoff team and losing means you'll get a game changer next year? All winning does is hurt your chances.

 

[MilfordHusky]

That's my point--teams will tank if they know they aren't that good but are guaranteed to get a Griner/Stewart/Moore type of player. They wont be as likely to tank if a running 2 year average is taken. What's the incentive to win when you aren't a playoff team and losing means you'll get a game changer next year? All winning does is hurt your chances.

Using a 2-year average AND having the lottery are both designed to keep teams from tanking.

 

[CamrnCrz1974]

That makes no sense as to needs. Everything I read from analyst/Journalist they think the 2 bigs and KLS will be top 3....I guess unless Ionescu declares early. However, Indiana needs a big desperately. They have good guards and perimeter shooting. They need a big that can help rebound and score.

Vegas I think could really use KLS or even another Big. I think KLS fits here.

I respectfully disagree. I believe the player chosen should be Collier for Las Vegas, but not at #2. See below, for my analysis posted on Rebkell:
http://boards.rebkell.net/viewtopic.php?p=1540520&highlight=#1540520


Here is the question - is A'ja Wilson really a four?

In terms of minutes this year, Las Vegas looked like this (without factoring in total games played, though outside of Jefferson, every player played in at least 24 games):

1. A'ja Wilson - 30.6
2. Kayla McBride - 32.3
3. Tamera Young - 26.7
4. Kelsey Plum - 25.5
5. Dearica Hamby - 14.4
6. Moriah Jefferson - 15.7
7. Nia Coffey - 13.8
8. Carolyn Swords - 14.4
9. Lindsay Allen - 14.9
10. Kelsey Bone - 10.8
11. JiSu Park - 13.0

I have not calculated the +/- numbers and efficiency ratings for Wilson at the 4 vs. Wilson at the 5. And there were times that a default center started for defensive purposes against some of the really talented veteran centers.

But Las Vegas needs the second front court player - whether a forward or center - to be able to contribute both offensively and defensively. Swords, Bone, and Park could not do that.

Kalani Brown and Teaira McCowan have yet to show their ability to be anything other than centers. They do not have the ability to face-up and hit outside shots on a consistent basis.

If I were AFO/Bill Laimbeer, I would consider trading a few spots down and looking at Napheesa Collier or Ezi Magbagor. Collier will fit well next to Wilson and has expanded range, passing abilities, good athleticism, and the ability to be a primary or secondary scorer (though she is only 6-1/6-2). If Laimbeer wants to take a chance on Magbagor as a young, but incredibly athletic face-up 4 with quick 1st step attacking abilities at 6-4 (but does not yet have the shooting range), that could also be a very good pick a few years down the road.

The bigger question is if we assume that Las Vegas gets the #2 pick, with which team could a trade be made.

 

[DallasBUFan]

I respectfully disagree. I believe the player chosen should be Collier for Las Vegas, but not at #2. See below, for my analysis posted on Rebkell:
RebKell's Junkie Boards :: View topic - 2019 WNBA Mock Draft


Here is the question - is A'ja Wilson really a four?

In terms of minutes this year, Las Vegas looked like this (without factoring in total games played, though outside of Jefferson, every player played in at least 24 games):

1. A'ja Wilson - 30.6
2. Kayla McBride - 32.3
3. Tamera Young - 26.7
4. Kelsey Plum - 25.5
5. Dearica Hamby - 14.4
6. Moriah Jefferson - 15.7
7. Nia Coffey - 13.8
8. Carolyn Swords - 14.4
9. Lindsay Allen - 14.9
10. Kelsey Bone - 10.8
11. JiSu Park - 13.0

I have not calculated the +/- numbers and efficiency ratings for Wilson at the 4 vs. Wilson at the 5. And there were times that a default center started for defensive purposes against some of the really talented veteran centers.

But Las Vegas needs the second front court player - whether a forward or center - to be able to contribute both offensively and defensively. Swords, Bone, and Park could not do that.

Kalani Brown and Teaira McCowan have yet to show their ability to be anything other than centers. They do not have the ability to face-up and hit outside shots on a consistent basis.

If I were AFO/Bill Laimbeer, I would consider trading a few spots down and looking at Napheesa Collier or Ezi Magbagor. Collier will fit well next to Wilson and has expanded range, passing abilities, good athleticism, and the ability to be a primary or secondary scorer (though she is only 6-1/6-2). If Laimbeer wants to take a chance on Magbagor as a young, but incredibly athletic face-up 4 with quick 1st step attacking abilities at 6-4 (but does not yet have the shooting range), that could also be a very good pick a few years down the road.

The bigger question is if we assume that Las Vegas gets the #2 pick, with which team could a trade be made.

Well you must not have watched Kalani because at 6'7 she can hit from 15 foot on the regular last season. Yes she had games where she missed, but some games would hit consistently. I still think you go for the Bigs and either trade or go with KLS.

I think you're short changing Wilson. I think given like Griner she will develop over the next few seasons and play the four position a lot better. Other than her who do they have to depend on? Also, wasn't Lambier a post? So who better to help develop both. I don't care enough to send half my day collecting the data, I'm just giving my opinion. If you can someone else with size to go against the likes Cambage or Griner, why not?

 

[Dillon77]

I respectfully disagree. I believe the player chosen should be Collier for Las Vegas, but not at #2. See below, for my analysis posted on Rebkell:
RebKell's Junkie Boards :: View topic - 2019 WNBA Mock Draft


Here is the question - is A'ja Wilson really a four?

In terms of minutes this year, Las Vegas looked like this (without factoring in total games played, though outside of Jefferson, every player played in at least 24 games):

1. A'ja Wilson - 30.6
2. Kayla McBride - 32.3
3. Tamera Young - 26.7
4. Kelsey Plum - 25.5
5. Dearica Hamby - 14.4
6. Moriah Jefferson - 15.7
7. Nia Coffey - 13.8
8. Carolyn Swords - 14.4
9. Lindsay Allen - 14.9
10. Kelsey Bone - 10.8
11. JiSu Park - 13.0

I have not calculated the +/- numbers and efficiency ratings for Wilson at the 4 vs. Wilson at the 5. And there were times that a default center started for defensive purposes against some of the really talented veteran centers.

But Las Vegas needs the second front court player - whether a forward or center - to be able to contribute both offensively and defensively. Swords, Bone, and Park could not do that.

Kalani Brown and Teaira McCowan have yet to show their ability to be anything other than centers. They do not have the ability to face-up and hit outside shots on a consistent basis.

If I were AFO/Bill Laimbeer, I would consider trading a few spots down and looking at Napheesa Collier or Ezi Magbagor. Collier will fit well next to Wilson and has expanded range, passing abilities, good athleticism, and the ability to be a primary or secondary scorer (though she is only 6-1/6-2). If Laimbeer wants to take a chance on Magbagor as a young, but incredibly athletic face-up 4 with quick 1st step attacking abilities at 6-4 (but does not yet have the shooting range), that could also be a very good pick a few years down the road.

The bigger question is if we assume that Las Vegas gets the #2 pick, with which team could a trade be made.

Three things that are always behind my reasoning for the Aces:


- Also, I've very much seen that Bill Laimbeer likes to load up on centers/forwards that can rebound the ball and play defense, allowing one of them to take over on the offensive end (Charles/Wilson).

- That said, he needs someone to complement/take the pressure off the outside duo of McBride and whomever will be playing point for him next season (hold that thought).

- He is also called Trader Bill for a reason.

Now, I still want to see a lot of the players mentioned in action over the course of their senior seasons before making a final decision, but:

- I think KLS is a natural for this team, pairing with Wilson and McBride to have a three-headed attack and, yes, also put fannies in seats.

- If MoJeff continues to rehab well, could it be worth dangling either Plum or MoJeff to a team to pick up a 2nd first rounder? They're both starters and Lindsay Allen could serve as a capable back-up for 10-12 minutes per game.

- And with that pick, I'd suggest looking to the Midwest:
-- Notre Dame could give you two options: Jessica Shepard, if you want to have a big who can pound, but also has sneaky quickness and can step outside the lane for the jumper; and/or Brianna Turner, who could give you rebounding/defense and mobility (she runs the floor very well). Plus, she has very long arms and plays longer than her listed 6'3".

One of the most interesting things to track with Shepard and Turner this year is how they play with each other at ND. Will Turner strictly play down low, with Shepard at the high post? Or will they interchange their low and high post chances? I'm suggesting this to see how one or the other would pair with Wilson in the pros. Spacing is key to Wilson and you'll need a complement who understands this. That, believe it or not, is my major concern with Brown or McCowan playing with Wilson.

If they're not available, you could get very serviceable players in Hallie Thome (Michigan) or Megan Gustafson.

BTW, I could see Collier (although I doubt she'd last that long) fitting in wonderfully in Seattle (also could see Turner there as a back-up center).

 

[EricLA]

I tend to think that the 2 bigs should go at or near the top. But a lot will depend on their senior seasons. Both have improved a lot, especially McCowan (she was way more raw so had more room to improve), but their draft stock will depend on how GM's think they will fare in the league. Just because they are big does not mean they will be good (prime example - Kelly Cain - 6'6" center chosen #7 by NYL). There are other bigs (Allyssa DeHaan for example) who never panned out, or in Allyssa's case, were never drafted.

I get that GM's need to go for need and what not, but really talented 6'6"+ players with talent and potential do not grow on trees. I love my Lou and Pheesa, but unless I had 2-3 ELITE post players right now, I'd draft Brown or McCowan ahead of my UCONN ladies. But they have to also have discussions with the coaches and players on the current roster to see how potential draftees would work out on the team.

There will be much more debate once the draft order is set...