WNBA -- 2023 Season | Page 23 | The Boneyard

WNBA -- 2023 Season

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bbsamjj said:
Just read an interesting article on Indiana from HerHoopsStats, making the point that while the Fever are certainly better than last year, their ceiling might be sneaking in to the 8th seed in the playoffs. But given how good next year's draft class is, and the fact that Indiana isn't exactly a destination for free agents yet, the Fever's best strategy to become a very good team is to add talent through the draft.

The argument the writer makes is that the Fever should strive to be the 10th or 9th best team this year--showing signs of progress, but not enough that they diminish their chances of picking up a great player who can really take their team to the next level in 2024 (which I'd argue is Clark or Bueckers, given than their frontline is looking very solid for a while with Boston, Smith, Egbo). The WNBA does its draft odds on cumulative two year records, and given the Fever were 5-31 last year, they can still be more competitive (a result I'd argue they've already achieved despite the lack of wins) and keep their lottery odds in tack.
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That two-year factor is something I've got to keep reminding myself.
 
Blueballer said:
What happened to Breanna Turner? The past couple of years I thought she made great strides. So far this season she hasn't contributed much of anything. Outside of Griner they just have no post game.
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She's not shooting, whether by design or just happenstance?

However, she would still manage to work a high-low with Ms. Griner or get a dish from Skylar Diggins-Smith.
Last year, she wore herself out playing center and power forward in Griner's absence. And she rebounded like heck. Now, she comes off the bench and sometimes doesn't even rebound much.
Is she fried? In Vanessa Nygaard's doghouse?

One thing I can tell you is she's not sluffin' it: that's not what Breezy Bri does. This daughter of two policemen works, works and works. There are no such things as trades during the WNBA season, but Bri might need a change of scenery next year, to once again be efficient at rebounding and do all the things that don't appear in the box score. I'm not used to seeing Turner not contribute in a positive manner (and I've watched her since she was a frosh at ND). Phoenix just looks to be wearing on everyone involved.
 
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Team Stats--so far. Teams have played 5-8 games so far so I am using per game %

Team-----PPG
LVA------93.1
DAL------84.9
ATL------83.8
LAS------83.0
CHI-----81.3
IND-----80.8
PHX-----80.4
NYL-----80.0
CON----79.6
MIN----78.6
SEA----76.8
WAS---76.5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Team--------FG%
LVA----------48.5
PHX---------45.5
NYL---------44.9
IND---------42.8
CHI---------42.7
LAS---------42.3
MIN--------41.8
CON--------41.0
ATL---------40.8
DAL--------40.2
WAS-------39.3
SEA--------38.2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Team-------RPG%
DAL--------38.3
IND--------37.3
LVA--------36.9
ATL--------36.8
CON-------36.8
CHI--------36.4
NYL--------36.0
SEA--------36.0
MIN-------34.7
WAS-------34.5
LAS--------31.8
PHX-------30.2
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Team-------APG
NYL--------23.7
LVA--------21.9
LAS--------21.0
CHI--------20.9
PHX-------20.8
CON------19.8
ATL--------19.2
WAS-------18.3
MIN--------18.3
IND---------17.2
DAL---------16.9
SEA---------14.0
 
Dillon77 said:
Following up on @bbsamjj : that article is Richard Cohen's third installment on the WNBA season. I've attached the first two and will continue to do so throughout the season. I highly recommend that all perusers of this WNBA thread open it up and read his insights. In addition to his thoughts on the Fever (which @cancontent and @hoopsnloops32 could find interesting ;)), he does a great job on:
  • explaining the myriad of WNBA rules that have led to seemingly "WTF?" moves in Los Angeles and Atlanta, and may be coming in Chicago, as well.
  • Money in ownership. Valuation. This also factored in the discussion on franchise stability.
  • Clips of Marine Johannes passing. Always worth it.

Enjoy!

herhoopstats.substack.com

WNBA Dissected 2023 Week 3: Moves explained, Marine exalted, money's exciting and more

From roster machinations to no-look passes, a jump around important and interesting topics in the WNBA this week
herhoopstats.substack.com herhoopstats.substack.com
Expand ...
This was a good article. I do still think tanking for the 2024 draft class is a risk, as he speculates teams 6-12 might do, because the biggest names in that draft have all talked about returning for a fifth year already, which you didn't hear from previous top draft picks their junior years. Angel Reese is very clearly returning for year 5, Caitlyn has teased the idea as well, and Paige has talked about considering staying for year 6 (though I find that unlikely). If I had to put money on it now I'd say 2 of the 3 stay in school with there being a better chance all 3 stay than all 3 go. If that's the case, the 2024 draft class is good but really big dominant. Brink, Edwards, Cardosa could potentially be your top 3 which is great but when you look at the teams struggling (outside of Phoenix) they all needs stronger guards, not bigs, to make the next step.

The 2025 draft could be elite guard packed with Clark, Bueckers, Miles, Fudd, and Citron all potentially coming out that year.

Anyways all speculation but I imagine these are the decisions teams are trying to plan for and the mystery of 5th years must make it even more challenging.
 
ochoopsfan said:
Team Stats--so far. Teams have played 5-8 games so far so I am using per game %

Team-----PPG
LVA------93.1
DAL------84.9
ATL------83.8
LAS------83.0
CHI-----81.3
IND-----80.8
PHX-----80.4
NYL-----80.0
CON----79.6
MIN----78.6
SEA----76.8
WAS---76.5

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Team--------FG%
LVA----------48.5
PHX---------45.5
NYL---------44.9
IND---------42.8
CHI---------42.7
LAS---------42.3
MIN--------41.8
CON--------41.0
ATL---------40.8
DAL--------40.2
WAS-------39.3
SEA--------38.2
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Team-------RPG%
DAL--------38.3
IND--------37.3
LVA--------36.9
ATL--------36.8
CON-------36.8
CHI--------36.4
NYL--------36.0
SEA--------36.0
MIN-------34.7
WAS-------34.5
LAS--------31.8
PHX-------30.2
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Team-------APG
NYL--------23.7
LVA--------21.9
LAS--------21.0
CHI--------20.9
PHX-------20.8
CON------19.8
ATL--------19.2
WAS-------18.3
MIN--------18.3
IND---------17.2
DAL---------16.9
SEA---------14.0
Expand ...
Interesting that NYL is so low in PPG while they are 3rd in FG% and 1st in assists (Which you would assume would imply they have a pretty good offense).

The commentators for the last game I watched said their issue is pace--they play at the slowest pace in the league, which is kind of wild.
 
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Looks like the Aces conceded this one, quite a bit more minutes than normal for the bench. Is it time to send out a search party for Parker? She hasn't come even close to getting on track for them so far.

edit--oops, now I see the comment above about starters getting benched
 
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Geew1992 said:
Going to the Liberty vs Dream game tonite.
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Have fun and don't go to the concession stands/restroom when Johannès is on the floor. You will definitely be seeing the best C Parker in the W. Any word on who the Dream are considering as a short/medium-term replacement at point guard with Aari & D Rob shelved? Henny? Somebody more experienced?
 
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Tangential said:
Have fun and don't go to the concession stands/restroom when Johannès is on the floor. You will definitely be seeing the best C Parker in the W. Any word on who the Dream are considering as a short/medium-term replacement at point guard with Aari & D Rob shelved? Henny? Somebody more experienced?
Expand ...

They signed Taylor Mikesell
 
Dillon77 said:
Following up on @bbsamjj : that article is Richard Cohen's third installment on the WNBA season in "herhoopstats." I've posted links on the first two and will continue to do so throughout the season. I highly recommend that all perusers of this WNBA thread open it up and read his insights. In addition to his thoughts on the Fever (which @cancontent and @hoopsnloops32 could find interesting ;)), he does a great job on:
  • explaining the myriad of WNBA rules that have led to seemingly "WTF?" moves in Los Angeles and Atlanta, and may be coming in Chicago, as well.
  • Money in ownership. Valuation. This also factored in the discussion on franchise stability.
  • Clips of Marine Johannes passing. Always worth it.

Enjoy!

herhoopstats.substack.com

WNBA Dissected 2023 Week 3: Moves explained, Marine exalted, money's exciting and more

From roster machinations to no-look passes, a jump around important and interesting topics in the WNBA this week
herhoopstats.substack.com herhoopstats.substack.com
Expand ...
Informative article -- once again, appreciated @ochoopsfan knowledgeable post that allayed our trepidations making it inevitable that Samuelson would be signed the next day.

Regarding the Fever (PSA: they waived Határ yesterday), there have been many cogent points made and I am in agreement with most (using the eye-test, they are vastly improved, part of the steps to go from a doormat to a contender is losing many winnable games with questionable strategy/execution, Mitchell needs to distribute more, especially with the most talented frontcourt she has had, etc.) However, there is one on which I am clearly in the minority -- "tanking." Like Kah & Dawn, I am a kid from Norfilly, and I have seen this movie before (The Process).

Looking at it from a probability perspective: #1 even if they try to lose, there are many other bad teams (Storm, Lynx, Mercury, etc.) that will also lose a lot (whether by design or not); #2 even if they achieve the worst 2-year aggregate record, that does not ensure that their ping pong ball will result in the 1st or 2nd overall pick; #3 as a few posters have mentioned, there is no guarantee that Clark, Bueckers, Reese, etc. will declare for the '24 draft; & #4 there is no guarantee that these players will become franchise-changing superstars (eg., Paige might be plagued by injuries enough to not be at the highest plateau, Angel might not be as dominant against WNBA 4's). When there are 4 non-correlated events that each have an 85% chance of occurring; there is a 52% (basically a coin flip) chance that all will happen.

More importantly, I am an adherent to Herm Edwards' famous quote: "You play to win the game." I wouldn't be thrilled if they made moves to enable them to lose more games, but it would be far worse if the players and/or coaches contributed to this. I know that there are no such accusations, but any talk of the Fever should be happy to finish 9th or 10th because they would lose 2 straight opening-round playoff games anyway, sickens me. I know that having 3 straight #1 overalls is paying dividends for the Aces, but Coach Laimbeer (ironically, he probably achieved more with less than any coach in the league with the Shock and couldn't get the uber-talented Aces across the finish line -- a big reason was his inability to properly utilize Plum & Young) wasn't able to reap the fruits of the suffering.
 
Laura Fay of "herhoopsstats" examines how the Chicago Sky and Seattle Storm chose to address the glaring holes in their rosters in the offseason. While acknowledging the Stewie and Parker departures, the focus of this article is on point guards and the effects on ASR (assist rate). While not declaring anything permanent at this point, she thinks Chicago's guards (Mabrey, Williams, Evans) have kept the rock moving in a pretty positive manner. Granted, Seattle has two rookies involved (Ivana Dojkic, Jade Melbourne), who will hopefully get better. Still, an interesting read.

herhoopstats.substack.com

The Storm and Sky Lost Key Pieces this Offseason. What’s Making their 2023 Seasons so Different?

Seattle and Chicago approached losing their star point guards in dramatically different ways.
herhoopstats.substack.com herhoopstats.substack.com
 
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nwhoopfan said:
Looks like the Aces conceded this one, quite a bit more minutes than normal for the bench. Is it time to send out a search party for Parker? She hasn't come even close to getting on track for them so far.

edit--oops, now I see the comment above about starters getting benched
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I have had her back the last couple years. I thought that most (I am aware of many UCONN fans feelings about her) underestimated her role in the '21 Championship run and even though she had a few games that were clunkers last year, she was still very productive overall in my opinion.

However, this year she looks like just another player, at best. Occasionally, you can see her chemistry with Gray, but for the most part, her game doesn't remotely resemble her illustrious career. It appears she has fallen off the cliff more significantly than Sue, DT, Sylvia, etc. at a younger or similar age. Maybe she's injured, pacing herself, will eventually become more integrated and useful, but as of now, the Aces look more imposing with Clark on the floor with the 4 superstars.
 
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Dillon77 said:
Laura Fay of "herhoopsstats" examines how the Chicago Sky and Seattle Storm chose to address the glaring holes in their rosters in the offseason. While acknowledging the Stewie and Parker departures, the focus of this article is on point guards and the effects on ASR (assist rate). While not declaring anything permanent at this point, she thinks Chicago's guards (Mabrey, Williams, Evans) have kept the rock moving in a pretty positive manner. Granted, Seattle has two rookies involved (Ivana Dojkic, Jade Melbourne), who will hopefully get better. Still, an interesting read.

herhoopstats.substack.com

The Storm and Sky Lost Key Pieces this Offseason. What’s Making their 2023 Seasons so Different?

Seattle and Chicago approached losing their star point guards in dramatically different ways.
herhoopstats.substack.com herhoopstats.substack.com
Expand ...
Idk about how crucial (as Fay put it) ASR is. LV was 8th last year (behind MN) and are 9th so far this season (behind MN & Atl). It is a feel good stat that many college and pro coaches use for a single game while looking at the stat sheet during the post-game presser ("Wow, we assisted on 22 of our 29 makes. That's the kind of basketball that we need to play"). But if you have a team that has multiple players that are able to create their own shots, such as all 4 of the Aces stars, it isn't as important. Dallas has been at or near the bottom the last 5 or so years (mostly because Ogunbowale is a creator), but that's not necessarily a bad thing.
 
Tangential said:
Idk about how crucial (as Fay put it) ASR is. LV was 8th last year (behind MN) and are 9th so far this season (behind MN & Atl). It is a feel good stat that many college and pro coaches use for a single game while looking at the stat sheet during the post-game presser ("Wow, we assisted on 22 of our 29 makes. That's the kind of basketball that we need to play"). But if you have a team that has multiple players that are able to create their own shots, such as all 4 of the Aces stars, it isn't as important. Dallas has been at or near the bottom the last 5 or so years (mostly because Ogunbowale is a creator), but that's not necessarily a bad thing
Expand ...
No stat means anything without context, but if you look at LV - I don't know anyone who would argue that they don't have the most elite offense in the league. It doesn't hurt them because they actually run an offense.

Ogunbowale (which btw I have no ill feelings about like some people here) hurts her team because she's not missing shots in the flow of the offense, she is taking over (and stagnating) the offense and not making shots. I mean you can just watch the games and see. I'd love to know what she shoots when taking shots in the flow of the offense v. when she tries to go 1v1 all the time. Is she talented? No doubt. When you shoot less than 40% from the floor for your career though (and this year she's only at 35% and 26% on 3s), taking 21 shots a game this year (almost 30% of the team shots), your team is winning despite you, not because of you. I feel the same way about DT (my fave player btw) the way she plays now - she is a better passer but definitely way more of a defensive liability. I love her but I'm over watching her just jack up 10 3s a game - not even all good ones.
 
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Tangential said:
Idk about how crucial (as Fay put it) ASR is. LV was 8th last year (behind MN) and are 9th so far this season (behind MN & Atl). It is a feel good stat that many college and pro coaches use for a single game while looking at the stat sheet during the post-game presser ("Wow, we assisted on 22 of our 29 makes. That's the kind of basketball that we need to play"). But if you have a team that has multiple players that are able to create their own shots, such as all 4 of the Aces stars, it isn't as important. Dallas has been at or near the bottom the last 5 or so years (mostly because Ogunbowale is a creator), but that's not necessarily a bad thing.
Expand ...
I'll take the bait and push back a little. ;)

When teams have multiple "creators/one-on-one specialists/ISO sets & directives for said player," then, yes, the ASR stats are not going to be as notable/reflective for some squads. You've noted two such teams:
  • Las Vegas with Wilson, Young, Gray, Plum
  • Dallas, which wasn't just Arike, but also Mabrey and Grey. I'd say Arike was augmented by Mabrey and Grey's abilities -- people couldn't double her as easily -- but that's not the case this year, with only Sabally able to create on her own consistently.

However, I'd also note that said creators often get the ball in situations that maximize their shot-creation skills. Those situations can be a direct result of precise ball movement, as well as other set-ups (hello, high ball screens.)

College coaches who have one or two ISO kings/queens get excited when their catch-and-shoot players or cutters-to-the-basket get passes to make their kinds of shots. Hence, the stat sheet exulations. And there are more of those combo teams than the Las Vegas Aces of the world.

If teams with varying talent sit around watching the one or two creators, you'll see slides and doubles from the defense. One sees this in hoops, for sure, but also in sports like lacrosse, which I played in high school and a few years in college. Good teams will make a defense pay for ball watching, but the offense has to be willing and able to make the dish, right?

In the case of Seattle, Jewell Loyd can create (and distribute), but outside of Ezi, who else? Chicago's gifted to have Mabrey, Copper and C. Williams, two of whom can also create for others and run a half-court set for the E. Williams and K. Smiths.

At a collegiate level, N. Ivey depends a lot of both ISO situations and catch-and-shoots off those ISO's, which is why the loss of Olivia Miles (the creator) and Dara Mabey (the catch-and-shoot beneficiary) was such a challenge. A player like Sonia Citron was forced to do waaay too much of everything. (On a pro level, you might see a Jewell Loyd wear down if others don't step up.)
 
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wbbhoops278 said:
No stat means anything without context, but if you look at LV - I don't know anyone who would argue that they don't have the most elite offense in the league. It doesn't hurt them because they actually run an offense.

Ogunbowale (which btw I have no ill feelings about like some people here) hurts her team because she's not missing shots in the flow of the offense, she is taking over (and stagnating) the offense and not making shots. I mean you can just watch the games and see. I'd love to know what she shoots when taking shots in the flow of the offense v. when she tries to go 1v1 all the time. Is she talented? No doubt. When you shoot less than 40% from the floor for your career though (and this year she's only at 35% and 26% on 3s), taking 21 shots a game this year (almost 30% of the team shots), your team is winning despite you, not because of you. I feel the same way about DT (my fave player btw) the way she plays now - she is a better passer but definitely way more of a defensive liability. I love her but I'm over watching her just jack up 10 3s a game - not even all good ones.
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When there was a rash of K. Mitchell bashing going on yesterday, I looked at some stats. I couldn't help but notice that Ogunbowale is taking 6 more shots per game than Mitchell this year, and about 3.5 more for their careers.
 
Tangential said:
I have had her back the last couple years. I thought that most (I am aware of many UCONN fans feelings about her) underestimated her role in the '21 Championship run and even though she had a few games that were clunkers last year, she was still very productive overall in my opinion.

However, this year she looks like just another player, at best. Occasionally, you can see her chemistry with Gray, but for the most part, her game doesn't remotely resemble her illustrious career. It appears she has fallen off the cliff more significantly than Sue, DT, Sylvia, etc. at a younger or similar age. Maybe she's injured, pacing herself, will eventually become more integrated and useful, but as of now, the Aces look more imposing with Clark on the floor with the 4 superstars.
Expand ...

Agreed. She was still great the last 2 years (1st Team All-WNBA a year ago) but hasn't found her footing yet in Vegas. I'm not sure if it's player decline, lack of chemistry with new teammates, or her taking a backseat to not disrupt chemistry from an already winning team. It's still early in the year. If it's player decline, it's a steep drop from where she was a year ago, but she is 37 and I believe the 2nd oldest player in the league after DT. My guess is it's a combination of all 3 factors though. Even with little productivity, Vegas is 7-1 and #1 in the league, so I don't see her lack of production as a negative for the team. Parker is one who doesn't mind taking a backseat to others, so at the end of the day if they're winning and she's filling her role for them, I see it as a win-win.
 
wbbhoops278 said:
I feel the same way about DT (my fave player btw) the way she plays now - she is a better passer but definitely way more of a defensive liability. I love her but I'm over watching her just jack up 10 3s a game - not even all good ones.
Expand ...
You hit it on the head. Like you DT is my fav, but I really wish she had retired.

Her age prevents her from playing effective D and she has devolved into a low efficiency offensive player.

That said like Brady, when you are the GOAT you get to decide when to leave.
 
nwhoopfan said:
When there was a rash of K. Mitchell bashing going on yesterday, I looked at some stats. I couldn't help but notice that Ogunbowale is taking 6 more shots per game than Mitchell this year, and about 3.5 more for their careers.
Expand ...
Two gunners without a conscience. K is only trailing Arike due to lack of opportunity. On a per minute basis I would guess they jack'em at the same rate, and miss at a similar rate, and win (lose) at a similar rate.
 
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