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Men Wins Needed for a 2024 At Large bid

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Two Big East series, and two series won. Our hitting is coming around, and it will be needed over a tough 5 game stretch. Let’s keep it going.

record........... season goal
7 - 10 / .412% ........ 14 - 8 / .636% - National
5 - 5/ .500 ......... 9 - 3 / .750 - Northeast
4 - 2 / .667........ 15 - 6 / .714 - B E season

0 - 0 / .000 ......... 2 - 2 / .500 - B E tourney
Post season Criteria
(1) 16- 17/ .485.... 40 - 19 / .693
(2) 57...... < 50 Team RPI

(3) 7 ........ < 12 Conf RPI
(4) tied 2nd........ Top 2 Big East
 
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Two Big East series, and two series won. Our hitting is coming around, and it will be needed over a tough 5 game stretch. Let’s keep it going.

record........... season goal
7 - 10 / .412% ........ 14 - 8 / .636% - National
5 - 5/ .500 ......... 9 - 3 / .750 - Northeast
4 - 2 / .667........ 15 - 6 / .714 - B E season

0 - 0 / .000 ......... 2 - 2 / .500 - B E tourney
Post season Criteria
(1) 16- 17/ .485.... 40 - 19 / .693
(2) 57...... < 50 Team RPI

(3) 7 ........ < 12 Conf RPI
(4) tied 2nd........ Top 2 Big East
 
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Finally back to .500. Playing much better baseball, and we are 8-2 in the last 10 games. Hopefully get a victory at BC tomorrow. Then off to DC to play Georgetown, which is in first place with an 8-1 Big East.

Go Huskies!!!

record........... season goal
8 - 10 / .444% ........ 14 - 8 / .636% - National
5 - 5/ .500 ......... 9 - 3 / .750 - Northeast
4 - 2 / .667........ 15 - 6 / .714 - B E season

0 - 0 / .000 ......... 2 - 2 / .500 - B E tourney
Post season Criteria
(1) 17- 17/ .500.... 40 - 19 / .693
(2) 56 ..... < 50 Team RPI

(3) 7 ........ < 12 Conf RPI
(4) tied 2nd........ Top 2 Big East
 
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Sorry about last post. Obviously a mistake. Nice comeback victory tonight. Let’s win this Gtown series. Most green we have seen in chart in a while.

Go Huskies!!!

record........... season goal
8 - 10 / .444% ........ 14 - 8 / .636% - National
5 - 6/ .454 ......... 9 - 3 / .750 - Northeast

5 - 2 / .667........ 15 - 6 / .714 - BE season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 2 - 2 / .500 - BE tourney
Post season Criteria
(1) 18- 18/ .500.... 40 - 19 / .693
(2) 45 ..... < 50 Team RPI
(3) 7 ........ < 12 Conf RPI
(4) tied 2nd........ Top 2 Big East
 
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Sorry about last post. Obviously a mistake. Nice comeback victory tonight. Let’s win this Gtown series. Most green we have seen in chart in a while.

Go Huskies!!!

record........... season goal
8 - 10 / .444% ........ 14 - 8 / .636% - National
5 - 6/ .454 ......... 9 - 3 / .750 - Northeast

5 - 2 / .667........ 15 - 6 / .714 - BE season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 2 - 2 / .500 - BE tourney
Post season Criteria
(1) 18- 18/ .500.... 40 - 19 / .693
(2) 45 ..... < 50 Team RPI
(3) 7 ........ < 12 Conf RPI
(4) tied 2nd........ Top 2 Big East
This weekend is really critical, as after this we're limited in our number of Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins. But having said that, it is no longer impossible to foresee the possibility that we could play ourselves into an RPI in, say, the low 30s, where on a RPI basis we will be in line for an at large bid but our win loss record would be well below what we wanted and 1hard to overlook.

Would the Committee look at our record not as one belonging to a Big East team, but one equivalent to an SEC or ACC team with a similar SOS, RPI and record? Who knows. But we have a lot of winning to do before that debate becomes a possibility, and they manner in which we're winning still doesn't inspire in me any confidence that we'll get there.
 

CL82

NCAA Men’s Basketball National Champions - Again!
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This weekend is really critical, as after this we're limited in our number of Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins. But having said that, it is no longer impossible to foresee the possibility that we could play ourselves into an RPI in, say, the low 30s, where on a RPI basis we will be in line for an at large bid but our win loss record would be well below what we wanted and 1hard to overlook.

Would the Committee look at our record not as one belonging to a Big East team, but one equivalent to an SEC or ACC team with a similar SOS, RPI and record? Who knows. But we have a lot of winning to do before that debate becomes a possibility, and they manner in which we're winning still doesn't inspire in me any confidence that we'll get there.
I would like to think being on a tear over our last dozen plus games would be a positive.
 
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record........... season goal
8 - 10 / .444% ........ 14 - 8 / .636% - National
5 - 6/ .454 ......... 9 - 3 / .750 - Northeast

6 - 2 / .750....... 15 - 6 / .714 - BE season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 2 - 2 / .500 - BE tourney
Post season Criteria
(1) 19 - 18/ .514.... 40 - 19 / .693
(2) 36 ..... < 50 Team RPI
(3) 6 ........ < 12 Conf RPI

(4) tied 2nd........ Top 2 Big East
 
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Series won yesterday. Now need to get greedy and sweep today. I know our record is below what is usually needed for an At Large Bid. But conference and team RPI is very good.

All we can do is keep winning. Today would be a huge win. Not only for qualifying for Big East tournament, but keeping our long shot At Large Bid alive.

Go Huskies!!!

record........... season goal
8 - 10 / .444% ........ 14 - 8 / .636% - National
5 - 6/ .454 ......... 9 - 3 / .750 - Northeast

6 - 2 / .750....... 15 - 6 / .714 - BE season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 2 - 2 / .500 - BE tourney
Post season Criteria
(1) 19 - 18/ .514.... 40 - 19 / .693
(2) 36 ..... < 50 Team RPI
(3) 6 ........ < 12 Conf RPI
(4) tied 2nd........ Top 2 Big East
 

Bomber36

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Series won yesterday. Now need to get greedy and sweep today. I know our record is below what is usually needed for an At Large Bid. But conference and team RPI is very good.
All we can do is keep winning. Today would be a huge win. Not only for qualifying for Big East tournament, but keeping our long shot At Large Bid alive.

Go Huskies!!!



record........... season goal
8 - 10 / .444% ........ 14 - 8 / .636% - National
5 - 6/ .454 ......... 9 - 3 / .750 - Northeast

6 - 2 / .750....... 15 - 6 / .714 - BE season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 2 - 2 / .500 - BE tourney
Post season Criteria
(1) 19 - 18/ .514.... 40 - 19 / .693
(2) 36 ..... < 50 Team RPI
(3) 6 ........ < 12 Conf RPI
(4) tied 2nd........ Top 2 Big East
Lock In Just Win Baby GIF
 
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This weekend is really critical, as after this we're limited in our number of Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins. But having said that, it is no longer impossible to foresee the possibility that we could play ourselves into an RPI in, say, the low 30s, where on a RPI basis we will be in line for an at large bid but our win loss record would be well below what we wanted and 1hard to overlook.

Would the Committee look at our record not as one belonging to a Big East team, but one equivalent to an SEC or ACC team with a similar SOS, RPI and record? Who knows. But we have a lot of winning to do before that debate becomes a possibility, and they manner in which we're winning still doesn't inspire in me any confidence that we'll get there.
No, I’d be looking for more overall respect from the committee. This is where continued success should matter when wins/losses don’t tell the entire story. I’m not sure that’ll happen though. UConn is viewed as a threat but not a peer regardless of what the numbers say in any particular season. It’s the same issue when scheduling, too much risk for SEC to go to Storrs w/out the added benefit. A CWS and that will change imo
 
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Series won yesterday. Now need to get greedy and sweep today. I know our record is below what is usually needed for an At Large Bid. But conference and team RPI is very good.

All we can do is keep winning. Today would be a huge win. Not only for qualifying for Big East tournament, but keeping our long shot At Large Bid alive.

Go Huskies!!!

record........... season goal
8 - 10 / .444% ........ 14 - 8 / .636% - National
5 - 6/ .454 ......... 9 - 3 / .750 - Northeast

6 - 2 / .750....... 15 - 6 / .714 - BE season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 2 - 2 / .500 - BE tourney
Post season Criteria
(1) 19 - 18/ .514.... 40 - 19 / .693
(2) 36 ..... < 50 Team RPI
(3) 6 ........ < 12 Conf RPI
(4) tied 2nd........ Top 2 Big East
 
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Pertinents if paywall challenged:

-> The Big East currently has the No. 6 conference RPI in the nation. Better than a power conference like the Pac-12. Better than football conferences like the American or Conference USA. Better than a traditional power conference like the Big West. Better than larger conferences like the Atlantic 10 or Coastal. Better than warm-weather conferences like the SoCon or the Southland.

The Big East — a mid-major conference where not every school has a full allotment of scholarships (a couple barely have half the allowed 11.7) — is the strongest conference no one is talking about, and a league that deserves multiple spots in the NCAA tournament, if not multiple at-large berths in the national tournament unless it’s officially being renamed the Southeast Invitational Tournament.

Receiving multiple at-large bids would be a first for the modern iteration of the conference. Since 2014 when the “Catholic Seven” split from the football-playing Big East schools to create the current landscape of the conference (minus Connecticut, who rejoined the Big East after the 2020 season), the conference has only received two at-large berths total. It got a pair of teams into the NCAA tournament in 2017 and then again last year when Xavier won the conference tournament and regular season champ UConn received an at-large berth.

Both times the Big East finished with a double-digit conference RPI rank. In 2017, the conference was No. 10. Last year, it finished with the 12th best conference RPI. In the 10 seasons since the Big East was remodeled, it has never finished ranked in the single digits. The 2017 season was an anomaly as the conference routinely finished No. 16-18 prior to Connecticut rejoining the league and 12th or 13th since.

But a rising tide has pushed the entire conference forward this season. Five teams entered the weekend inside the top 60 of the RPI, and the Big East’s top boats aren’t carrying massive cruise ship anchors at the bottom of the conference standings. The Big East, in recent history, has had a three-tier system of RPIs. It had a couple (sometimes three) top RPI teams in the top 70 or 80. The best team usually lands somewhere between 20-35, just outside hosting range. There has been a middle tier with teams in the 130-160 RPI range and then a bottom section with RPI anchors that have featured at least two teams with RPIs higher than 225 in the last four years.

This year, the anchor section is gone.

No longer is a single conference loss a devastator and potential backbreaker. Creighton entered the weekend with a 27-7 record and a top 40 RPI. It lost Saturday to the team with the lowest RPI in the Big East, Villanova. Last year, the Wildcats’ conference-worst RPI was No. 260, meaning a loss to them could mean a precipitous drop. Just playing the game was likely a bane to the RPI of the conference’s top teams.

Villanova (13-23, 4-7) currently has the Big East’s lowest RPI, but that’s at No. 170 after taking the 13-6 victory over the Blue Jays. A difference of 90 spots from last year! The Wildcats are more competitive, sitting just a win shy of last year’s total. Last year’s other RPI anchor, Butler, has already surpassed its 2023 win total and has the No. 164 RPI after finishing at No. 234 last season.

But no one has ascended quite like Georgetown. Routinely in the anchor tier of RPI, the Hoyas hadn’t had an RPI better than No. 191 since 2016 and had an average RPI of 215 from 2005 to 2021 with a high mark of No. 173. Under Edwin Thompson, the Hoyas have climbed to new heights finishing No. 138 in 2022, No. 135 last season and entered this weekend at No. 53.

Despite suffering the loss Saturday, Creighton head coach Ed Servais was quick to point out how improved the Big East is this season. “Villanova deserves a ton of credit. Georgetown deserves credit. Butler is a much-improved team. They’re going to beat some people down down the road too,” the veteran skipper said. “So I’m very pleased with how the league is progressing. And I believe it very well could be a two-bid league. It’s something that we’ve been working hard to become. Things are trending and a lot of these coaches deserve a ton of credit.” <-
 
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What a great weekend. A sweep of first place Georgetown, to get us into sole possession of first.

record........... season goal
8 - 10 / .444% ........ 14 - 8 / .636% - National
5 - 6/ .454 ......... 9 - 3 / .750 - Northeast

7 - 2 / .778....... 15 - 6 / .714 - BE season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 2 - 2 / .500 - BE tourney
Post season Criteria
(1) 20 - 18/ .526.... 40 - 19 / .693
(2) 35 ..... < 50 Team RPI
(3) 7 ........ < 12 Conf RPI
(4) 1st ........ Top 2 Big East
 
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After doing some research today, I’m going change chart based on my findings. Here are the details.

(1) looked at all teams from the top 7 RPI ranked conferences

(2) I did this for 2022 and 2023

(3) found 39 teams each year (coincidence) that had an RPI of 48 or less

(4) of those 78 teams (39 x 2yrs) , 71 of them made the NCAA Tournament. That is 91%

(5) for Conferences ranked 5-7, 17 teams had an RPI of 48 or less. 15 of the 17 teams made the tournament. That is just over 88%.

(6) I then took looked at the 6 worst records (by percentage) of the above teams that made tournament. Their average record calculated to 34-24.

So based on above info. I’m setting our new goals at a 34-24 record, with a RPI of 48 or less.

I believe we have 16 regular season games left, and I am figuring we will be 2-2 in Big East tournament. Losing in the championship game.

So for us to get to 34 -24, we would need to go 12-4 in regular season. Assuming we go 2-2 in BE tournament.

So with all that said. Below is my new chart. I added 1 extra criteria and tweaked goals. The extra criteria is for our last 16 regular season games. Hope this makes sense.


Post season Criteria
(1) 20 - 18/ .526.... 34 - 24 / .586
(2) 0 - 0 / .000….. 12 - 4 / .750

(3) 35 ..... < 48 Team RPI
(4) 5th........ < 7 Conf RPI
(5) 1st ........ Top 2 Big East
 
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As someone who has very nicely implied the tests were overly simplistic over the years (please don’t get me wrong – still a useful barometer and I sincerely thank you for doing it), thank you for doing the extra work here. And your goals to finish the season look about right to me.

Does this team give me any confidence? Heck no. Even last weekend, with a huge road sweep against a team that started the weekend with a better RPI than us, the weekend showed more about our guts and determination than our talent. We easily could have been 0-3 last weekend, and in picking one play a game that made a difference it easily could have been plays Georgetown didn’t make against us and not plays we made. Is it as good as the average UConn team we have become used to? Absolutely not. The starting pitching is entirely unreliable, the line up has more holes than we’re used to without the top end bats we’re used to, and the bullpen while doing much better doesn’t have the depth we’re used to.

But what I think about the team is as useless as a sixth toe. The fact is our RPI says we’re every bit as good as an average UConn team over the last decade and we’re on track (with a lead even though we’ve played all 3 of our series against the 3 teams closest to us in the standings, and now have 3 of 4 left against teams outside the top 100) to win the conference. If I believe the computers, we haven’t looked good because of how good our schedule is, and now that our schedule will ease up our record should skyrocket. Time will tell.

I’d actually feel better with one less regular season loss — go 3-2 in our remaining quality games and only drop 1 of our RPI killers – but I’ll defer to your research. And again, thank you for your research.
 
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As someone who has very nicely implied the tests were overly simplistic over the years (please don’t get me wrong – still a useful barometer and I sincerely thank you for doing it), thank you for doing the extra work here. And your goals to finish the season look about right to me.

Does this team give me any confidence? Heck no. Even last weekend, with a huge road sweep against a team that started the weekend with a better RPI than us, the weekend showed more about our guts and determination than our talent. We easily could have been 0-3 last weekend, and in picking one play a game that made a difference it easily could have been plays Georgetown didn’t make against us and not plays we made. Is it as good as the average UConn team we have become used to? Absolutely not. The starting pitching is entirely unreliable, the line up has more holes than we’re used to without the top end bats we’re used to, and the bullpen while doing much better doesn’t have the depth we’re used to.

But what I think about the team is as useless as a sixth toe. The fact is our RPI says we’re every bit as good as an average UConn team over the last decade and we’re on track (with a lead even though we’ve played all 3 of our series against the 3 teams closest to us in the standings, and now have 3 of 4 left against teams outside the top 100) to win the conference. If I believe the computers, we haven’t looked good because of how good our schedule is, and now that our schedule will ease up our record should skyrocket. Time will tell.

I’d actually feel better with one less regular season loss — go 3-2 in our remaining quality games and only drop 1 of our RPI killers – but I’ll defer to your research. And again, thank you for your research.
Conference ranking matters when determining the field with an opportunity to get to the CWS. Imo, that’s all. It’s great that the BE is much improved, however, are there arms within the conf that’ll prep Uconn for the type of talent that they faced last year in NCAA. Idk about that. I haven’t seen these guys pitch but if I have to guess based upon what I’ve seen or followed, probably not, overall. It doesn’t mean there are not very good pitchers in the conference, but again, what’s the goal as a program?? Not BE dominance and getting into the dance. Get to Omaha! Go find the one or two bats/arms that’ll get em over the hump.

It’s getting frustrating as a fan listening and reading about conference improvement. You were a win away from the CWS two short years ago and now the BE and the schedule are the main reasons for the drop off…grad transfers and the lack of the Prato’s Kay’s Feole’s Cate’s in recruiting and development is why Uconn has struggled to find it.

You never know, a hot staff or contagious hitting and a favorable draw in the tournament with an unexpected trip to the Supers and all this is forgotten.
 
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-> Rogers Rewind: Five things I learned + who hurt/helped postseason situations

Connecticut: Jim Penders’ club still has an overall record problem at 20-18 overall, but the resume is slowly but surely getting better. UConn took care of business on the road against Georgetown over the weekend and is up to 36 in the RPI, which is a 19 spot increase over last week. The bad news? UConn still has some work to do metrics-wise, sitting at 5-11 vs. RPI Top 50 teams and 13-16 in non-conference games. <-
 

CL82

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After doing some research today, I’m going change chart based on my findings. Here are the details.

(1) looked at all teams from the top 7 RPI ranked conferences

(2) I did this for 2022 and 2023

(3) found 39 teams each year (coincidence) that had an RPI of 48 or less

(4) of those 78 teams (39 x 2yrs) , 71 of them made the NCAA Tournament. That is 91%

(5) for Conferences ranked 5-7, 17 teams had an RPI of 48 or less. 15 of the 17 teams made the tournament. That is just over 88%.

(6) I then took looked at the 6 worst records (by percentage) of the above teams that made tournament. Their average record calculated to 34-24.

So based on above info. I’m setting our new goals at a 34-24 record, with a RPI of 48 or less.

I believe we have 16 regular season games left, and I am figuring we will be 2-2 in Big East tournament. Losing in the championship game.

So for us to get to 34 -24, we would need to go 12-4 in regular season. Assuming we go 2-2 in BE tournament.

So with all that said. Below is my new chart. I added 1 extra criteria and tweaked goals. The extra criteria is for our last 16 regular season games. Hope this makes sense.


Post season Criteria
(1) 20 - 18/ .526.... 34 - 24 / .586
(2) 0 - 0 / .000….. 12 - 4 / .750

(3) 35 ..... < 48 Team RPI
(4) 5th........ < 7 Conf RPI
(5) 1st ........ Top 2 Big East
Still a tough row to hoe, But you have to like the way the team is playing over last dozen games.
 
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I totally agree that this is not a vintage UConn team we are used to following. But I’m just going by the numbers of most recent years. If we do reach above goals, we have a very good chance of making tournament. But as I always say, these goals Do not guarantee anything. Just gives us a barometer on if we are on a good bath.
Making tournament is obviously the first step, then you never know. Not many UConn fans would have thought that the Kemba and Shabazz teams were going to win a national championship, when there was still a third of the season to play. Not saying that about this year’s baseball team, but let’s worry about making tournament first.
Go Huskies!!!
 
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When you play a team like UMASS does it help the RPI to kill them like we are? Or does it not matter much?
 

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