Men Wins needed for 2022 NCAA At Large Bid

[lavuuk153]

I think a decent to good record, will not get us an At Large bid. Our record needs to be very good to superior. If we don't get to 40 wins, I would be very nervous on selection day.

Do you still think 40 wins should be the target for at at large? I feel like if they go 18-14 the rest of the way their odds have to be minimal at best. I’m not going to claim that I know how RPI will play out in that scenario but it would have to fall like a stone right?

 

[ucjoet]

Do you still think 40 wins should be the target for at at large? I feel like if they go 18-14 the rest of the way their odds have to be minimal at best. I’m not going to claim that I know how RPI will play out in that scenario but it would have to fall like a stone right?

I am starting to have doubts about the 40 win and RPI of less then 50 as a combo goal. I did my research (over 10 years ago). At that time every team ( except 1) that had at least 40 wins and a RPI of less then 50 made the NCAA tournament. This was over a 5 year span.
I think our problem is not getting to 40 wins, but having a RPI of less then 50. Our schedule is not helping us, and we don’t have many future games vs highly ranked RPI teams.
Obviously hoping we sweep St. John’s. It will be interesting to see where our RPI is after this weekend.

 

[huskypantz]

Do you still think 40 wins should be the target for at at large? I feel like if they go 18-14 the rest of the way their odds have to be minimal at best. I’m not going to claim that I know how RPI will play out in that scenario but it would have to fall like a stone right?

If they go 18-14 the rest of the way they likely would not be top 2 big east. I hear what you’re saying but the other metrics would tank.

 

[ucjoet]

Another weekend series won. Pat Gallagher was spectacular with a complete game. Giving up only 4 hits and 1 walk. Stock, Morton with 4 hits and Dana contributed 3 hits, so we had plenty of offense. Our RPI dropped1 (to 61) with victory. I know I am beating a dead horse, but the only thing we can do is beat who we have on our schedule. Nothing we can do about the RPI.

I really believe we are going to have an outstanding overall record. I don't think we should have a problem with an At Large bid, but getting a regional without a solid RPI will be difficult.

Lets sweep today.

Go Huskies !!!
current record........... season goal
15- 5 / .750% ........ 11 - 10 / .524% - Out of Conference
6 - 2 / .750 ......... 11 - 3 / .785 - New England
2 - 0 / 1.000 ......... 15 - 6 / .714 - Big East regular season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 3 - 2 / .600 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 23 - 7 / .767 ...... 40 - 21 / .655
(2) 61 ....... < 50 RPI
(3) 1 st (tied) ........ Top 2 Big East



Something More Aggressive
current record ......................season goal
(1) 23 - 7 / .767 ...... 46 - 14 / .766
(2) 61 ....... < 30 RPI
(3) 25 ........ < 20 poll

 

[dbmill]

Another weekend series won. Pat Gallagher was spectacular with a complete game. Giving up only 4 hits and 1 walk. Stock, Morton with 4 hits and Dana contributed 3 hits, so we had plenty of offense. Our RPI dropped1 (to 61) with victory. I know I am beating a dead horse, but the only thing we can do is beat who we have on our schedule. Nothing we can do about the RPI.

I really believe we are going to have an outstanding overall record. I don't think we should have a problem with an At Large bid, but getting a regional without a solid RPI will be difficult.

Lets sweep today.

Go Huskies !!!
current record........... season goal
15- 5 / .750% ........ 11 - 10 / .524% - Out of Conference
6 - 2 / .750 ......... 11 - 3 / .785 - New England
2 - 0 / 1.000 ......... 15 - 6 / .714 - Big East regular season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 3 - 2 / .600 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 23 - 7 / .767 ...... 40 - 21 / .655
(2) 61 ....... < 50 RPI
(3) 1 st (tied) ........ Top 2 Big East



Something More Aggressive
current record ......................season goal
(1) 23 - 7 / .767 ...... 46 - 14 / .766
(2) 61 ....... < 30 RPI
(3) 25 ........ < 20 poll

UConn currently has a 4-3 record against Top 100 RPI teams. With so few games against the top 100, and together with their current RPI (of course, both numbers could change for the better), I would be a bit surprised at this point if they would get to host a regional. Of course, they are getting some notice in the the Top 25 polls, so that is certainly a positive. The current weekend goal still needs to keep taking weekend conference series, plus the vast majority of the midweek games. While you can't count on them, some weekend sweeps would certainly help out as well, especially starting with today's game since the opportunity presents itself. We'll see how it all goes as the season continues.

As always, I'm most interested to see UConn baseball keep adding to their collection of invites to the NCAA Tournament that they have had since the 2010 season.

 

[Guapo]

If UConn does end up with a really solid record, I hope them being in the northeast + a new on campus stadium = regional host

 

[ucjoet]

We sweep St. Johns in convincing fashion to start Big East season at 3-0. We are at approximately the half way point in the season. Below are some random stats. Lets have another big week.

(1) We moved to 20th in recent poll

(2) Tied for 9th in the country in scoring margin ( +4.5 runs)

(3) Tied for 2nd in run allowed per game (3.4)

(4) Tenth best winning % (77.4%)

(5) Ninth most wins in country (24)

(6) Tenth best road record (14-5)


Go Huskies !!!

current record........... season goal
15- 5 / .750% ........ 11 - 10 / .524% - Out of Conference
6 - 2 / .750 ......... 11 - 3 / .785 - New England
3 - 0 / 1.000 ......... 15 - 6 / .714 - Big East regular season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 3 - 2 / .600 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 24 - 7 / .774 ...... 40 - 21 / .655
(2) 61 ....... < 50 RPI
(3) 1 st (tied) ........ Top 2 Big East


Something More Aggressive
current record ......................season goal
(1) 24 - 7 / .774 ...... 46 - 14 / .766
(2) 61 ....... < 30 RPI
(3) 20 ........ < 20 poll

 

[Dream Jobbed 2.0]

I kind of feel like we need to win out and win the BET just to get the seed be deserve.

 

[king conn]

I have a question I have been waiting for someone to ask

When we moved back to the Big East, wasn't it generally accepted that we needed to beef up the non conference schedule? Not only for the obvious RPI problem, but also to prepare us to actually win games in the ncaa tournament against the stronger competition we will face.

Why was our non conf. schedule so hideous? Why did we waste 3 game series against the likes of Rhode Island, Kent St. and UCSD for example?
I mean our non conference schedule SOS is ranked in the 200's! That's totally unacceptable in any league, nevermind the Big East!

 

[ATLDYKA]

I have a question I have been waiting for someone to ask

When we moved back to the Big East, wasn't it generally accepted that we needed to beef up the non conference schedule? Not only for the obvious RPI problem, but also to prepare us to actually win games in the ncaa tournament against the stronger competition we will face.

Why was our non conf. schedule so hideous? Why did we waste 3 game series against the likes of Rhode Island, Kent St. and UCSD for example?
I mean our non conference schedule SOS is ranked in the 200's! That's totally unacceptable in any league, nevermind the Big East!

Hard to forecast how good teams will actually be. URI and Kent State generally are solid programs but are just having a down year.

 

[dbmill]

I have a question I have been waiting for someone to ask

When we moved back to the Big East, wasn't it generally accepted that we needed to beef up the non conference schedule? Not only for the obvious RPI problem, but also to prepare us to actually win games in the ncaa tournament against the stronger competition we will face.

Why was our non conf. schedule so hideous? Why did we waste 3 game series against the likes of Rhode Island, Kent St. and UCSD for example?
I mean our non conference schedule SOS is ranked in the 200's! That's totally unacceptable in any league, nevermind the Big East!

UConn usually schedules a solid non conference schedule. The problem this season is that a number of the teams UConn is playing are having historically poor seasons compared to how they normally perform, some due to injuries. Chris Jones was talking about this during the games over the weekend. Rhode Island often has an RPI in the top 100, last season they had an RPI of 75 which is much closer to where they normally are than this season.

Kent State baseball over the last couple of decades has been in the NCAA Tournament a number of times, and along with UConn they have won more games then any other school north of the Mason Dixon line. They are certainly a solid program.

I understand UC San Diego is relatively new to Division 1, but I have also heard that for many years they were a Division 2 power in baseball.

Other teams on UConn non conference schedule that are under performing this season based on their normal standards would include FIU, Bryant (another school that is normally one of the best in New England in baseball), and South Florida.

As for Big East teams, St. John's has had a very solid program over the years. They have taken a big fall the last couple of seasons, that's for sure.

 

[hardcorehusky]

I have a question I have been waiting for someone to ask

When we moved back to the Big East, wasn't it generally accepted that we needed to beef up the non conference schedule? Not only for the obvious RPI problem, but also to prepare us to actually win games in the ncaa tournament against the stronger competition we will face.

Why was our non conf. schedule so hideous? Why did we waste 3 game series against the likes of Rhode Island, Kent St. and UCSD for example?
I mean our non conference schedule SOS is ranked in the 200's! That's totally unacceptable in any league, nevermind the Big East!

Last year, Penders over scheduled and we took a beating early on. This year, as have previously been mentioned, many of the teams are just having a bad year. Remember, a lot of the schools that are "powers" do not want to face us as we are good enough to beat them.

 

[huskymedic]

-> Colin N: The way UCONN is playing, how do you like their chances of hosting a regional as of right now?

Kendall Rogers: COLIN — Connecticut will have next to no chance to host because of its RPI, but that’s not really its doing. That league is just not very good from an RPI standpoint. With that said, that’s a really good team. Pat Gallagher is very much a legitimate front-line ace. I wouldn’t want those guys in my regional. <-

-> Rod: Rutgers now 25-6/8-1 in B10, leading a Power 5 in pitching, fielding and hitting. Presumably they are sitting outside top 25 since B10 has had a bit of a down year, but why does northeast neighbor UConn continue to get rewarded for a similarly soft schedule? (Without referencing RPI SOS which we all know is flawed)

Kendall Rogers: Rod — Good question. We discussed Rutgers for the Top 25 this week, but I definitely wouldn’t say its resume sniffs UCONN. UCONN has a win over Louisville (on the weekend), a road win over USC, a road series win over Pepperdine, who is decent this season. Rutgers’ marquee win so far? I’m trying to find it … and oh yeah, there’s a little series loss at Omaha. RU is damn good but clearly behind UCONN in the pecking order and resume wise <-

 

[ucjoet]

Another dominating win. Good overall pitching performance, and we had 4 players with 3 hits. Really hoping Morton is OK, he has been on fire.

Go Huskies !!!

current record........... season goal
16- 5 / .762% ........ 11 - 10 / .524% - Out of Conference
6 - 2 / .750 ......... 11 - 3 / .785 - New England
3 - 0 / 1.000 ......... 15 - 6 / .714 - Big East regular season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 3 - 2 / .600 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 25 - 7 / .781 ...... 40 - 21 / .655
(2) 59 ....... < 50 RPI
(3) 1 st (tied) ........ Top 2 Big East


Something More Aggressive
current record ......................season goal
(1) 25 - 7 / .781 ...... 46 - 14 / .766
(2) 59 ....... < 30 RPI
(3) 20 ........ < 20 poll

 

[ATLDYKA]

UConn usually schedules a solid non conference schedule. The problem this season is that a number of the teams UConn is playing are having historically poor seasons compared to how they normally perform, some due to injuries. Chris Jones was talking about this during the games over the weekend. Rhode Island often has an RPI in the top 100, last season they had an RPI of 75 which is much closer to where they normally are than this season.

Kent State baseball over the last couple of decades has been in the NCAA Tournament a number of times, and along with UConn they have won more games then any other school north of the Mason Dixon line. They are certainly a solid program.

I understand UC San Diego is relatively new to Division 1, but I have also heard that for many years they were a Division 2 power in baseball.

Other teams on UConn non conference schedule that are under performing this season based on their normal standards would include FIU, Bryant (another school that is normally one of the best in New England in baseball), and South Florida.

As for Big East teams, St. John's has had a very solid program over the years. They have taken a big fall the last couple of seasons, that's for sure.

Chris Jones mentioned UConn already having lined up some big SEC programs for next years schedule. Does anyone know who they might be?

 

[dbmill]

Chris Jones mentioned UConn already having lined up some big SEC programs for next years schedule. Does anyone know who they might be?

Don't know the names of any SEC teams on future schedules, but Chris Jones has been talking about future out of conference scheduling pretty much throughout the season. It sounds like UConn has spring break west coast trips lined up on the docket for future seasons. Whatever the case, the weakness of this season's out of conference schedule is pretty much an aberration.

 

[CtBaseball]

Listen from 41:24-44:00.

Kendall Rogers, Aaron Fitt, and Mike Rooney talk about UConn’s potential for an at-large bid.

 

[ucjoet]

Listen from 41:24-44:00.

Kendall Rogers, Aaron Fitt, and Mike Rooney talk about UConn’s potential for an at-large bid.

Listened to above segment and it made me real nervous. There was talk that if we don’t get automatic bid, we may not get an At Large bid. I find this hard to believe. If we keep up our winning percentage, we will get to 45 -47 wins and probably be ranked in top 15 - 20. Also our road record should also be very good.
But it does seem our chance of hosting a regional is just about zero. All we can do is keep winning and make it impossible for committee to keep us out.
Go Huskies !!!

 

[freescooter]

Since we downgraded our league, I’ve been saying we need to figure out how to upgrade our non-conference schedule or the program will whither over time. St Johns, Seton Hall were once serious programs. Now they are barely above club status. Georgetown literally almost was downgraded to club a couple of years ago. The eye test says this is a really good team this year, but it still needs to win the league to avoid bubble status. A slightly less talented team will be under extra pressure every year in a 1-bid league.

 

[CL82]

Since we downgraded our league, I’ve been saying we need to figure out how to upgrade our non-conference schedule or the program will whither over time. St Johns, Seton Hall were once serious programs. Now they are barely above club status. Georgetown literally almost was downgraded to club a couple of years ago. The eye test says this is a really good team this year, but it still needs to win the league to avoid bubble status. A slightly less talented team will be under extra pressure every year in a 1-bid league.

“Whither over time” lol. That’s a classic scooter-ism. He’s always predicting doom just over the horizon so that he can’t be held accountable for it.

 

[ATLDYKA]

Since we downgraded our league, I’ve been saying we need to figure out how to upgrade our non-conference schedule or the program will whither over time. St Johns, Seton Hall were once serious programs. Now they are barely above club status. Georgetown literally almost was downgraded to club a couple of years ago. The eye test says this is a really good team this year, but it still needs to win the league to avoid bubble status. A slightly less talented team will be under extra pressure every year in a 1-bid league.

Sounds like from the telecasts we are upgrading the schedule. If we have a couple of series lined up with the SEC next year that is a great thing. If possible something we should be looking to do every year. 2 three game series against and SEC, ACC Power 5 opponent. Plus it also gives me a chance to go see them play.

 

[king conn]

Warren Nolin projects us for 9 losses on the season.
That seems ridiculous, but it also projects our rpi to be 21 if that happens. I do think we have some play here with more than 9 losses

 

[ucjoet]

Two Big East weekends and 2 sweeps to get us to 6-0. Below are random thoughts / stats. Happy Easter to all the Boneyarders.

Go Huskies !!!

(*) We are 28-7 (.800%) with an RPI of 66.

(*) Warren Nolan site predicts we end the regular season at 48-8 with a final RPI of 29. That means going 20-1 over next 21 games. I would love that , but that is tough to do in baseball.

(*) We are 6th in country with 9 straight wins.

(*) 5th in scoring margin at +4.7

(*) 2nd in runs allowed at 3.4

(*) 5th in winning % at .800%

(*) 4th in most wins with 28

(*) 2nd in road wins with 17

(*) 6th in road win % at .773

(*) The average RPI of teams we played in the last 20 games is 190. The average RPI of teams we play in next 21 games is 133. Not that 133 is awesome, but it is a step up from the 190. Hopefully if we continue winning our RPI will actually go down instead of up. At the beginning of that 20 game stretch our RPI was 14. We end up going 16-4 , and our RPI drops to 66. As it has been stated many times on this board, by many different posters. We just need to keep winning.


current record........... season goal
16- 5 / .762% ........ 11 - 10 / .524% - Out of Conference
6 - 2 / .750 ......... 11 - 3 / .785 - New England
6 - 0 / 1.000 ......... 15 - 6 / .714 - Big East regular season
0 - 0 / .000 ......... 3 - 2 / .600 - Big East tourney

Post season Criteria
(1) 28 - 7 / .800 ...... 40 - 21 / .655
(2) 66 ....... < 50 RPI
(3) 1 st (tied) ........ Top 2 Big East



Something More Aggressive
current record ......................season goal
(1) 28 - 7 / .800 ...... 46 - 14 / .766
(2) 66 ....... < 30 RPI
(3) 20 ........ < 20 poll

 

[huskymedic]

How The Top 25 Fared: Week Nine • D1Baseball

Jaxon Wiggins and Arkansas had a huge weekend, but they certainly weren't alone as we look at how last week's Top 25 teams fared.

d1baseball.com

 

[huskymedic]

Is what it is…

 

[Guapo]

Is what it is…

Road warriors

 

[dbmill]

Is what it is…

This in addition to the fact that UConn's out of conference schedule did not turn out to be nearly as tough as it normally would have, considering the down years that a number of UConn's opponents are having.

Still, UConn does have a 4-2 record currently against teams in the top 100 RPI, so that could help if UConn is in need of an at large bid when it comes to the NCAA tourney. Also, have to figure the UConn's ranking in the polls (assuming that continues) will have something of an influence as well.

 

[huskymedic]

 

[HookC22]

This in addition to the fact that UConn's out of conference schedule did not turn out to be nearly as tough as it normally would have, considering the down years that a number of UConn's opponents are having.

Still, UConn does have a 4-2 record currently against teams in the top 100 RPI, so that could help if UConn is in need of an at large bid when it comes to the NCAA tourney. Also, have to figure the UConn's ranking in the polls (assuming that continues) will have something of an influence as well.

Thanks for articulating this much better than I was trying to. A lot of people here seem to be focusing on this years OOC schedule and how we need to upgrade in the future. This years OOC slate is an anomaly and Penders has never shied away from teams, and consistently has brought teams west and south to seek out RPI boosts. When you plan a schedule 6+ months ahead, things happen and teams dont turn out as good as we thought. This year that is compounded by other Big East teams struggling and bring us all down a few notches collectively with them in the RPI.

 

[dbmill]

Thanks for articulating this much better than I was trying to. A lot of people here seem to be focusing on this years OOC schedule and how we need to upgrade in the future. This years OOC slate is an anomaly and Penders has never shied away from teams, and consistently has brought teams west and south to seek out RPI boosts. When you plan a schedule 6+ months ahead, things happen and teams dont turn out as good as we thought. This year that is compounded by other Big East teams struggling and bring us all down a few notches collectively with them in the RPI.

As for the Big East this season, there is no question St. John's and Seton Hall are certainly not as good as they have been in the past. Considering St. John's and Seton Hall are usually two of the better teams in the Big East, this is certainly a disappointment. On the other hand, while I would hardly call Villanova and Georgetown great teams, they are both doing better this season than they normally do. Both those schools are usually at the back end of the Big East standings and the RPI for that matter, but that is not the case at least for this season.

While Big East teams generally had a horrible start to this season, it seems to me that conference teams have picked it up some and are not quite as bad as everyone makes them out to be. Still, even with saying that, the Big East is hardly a big threat at this point to have multiple teams make the NCAA Tournament with any sort of consistency.

As for scheduling, from listening to Chris Jones during the broadcast of UConn baseball game, it seems that scheduling for upcoming seasons starts a few years in advance. Obviously, tinkering with the schedule keeps on going up until the schedule for a coming season gets released.