Win out?
- Thread starter Husky999
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If we win out before the NCAA tournament, we'd likely have to beat Louisville twice, Memphis (technically neutral, but on their home floor), and Cincinnati again.
That would be a hell of a run, and a lot is dependent on what other teams ahead of us do, but I think we'd end up as a 3; just drawing another parallel to the 2011 season.
That would be a hell of a run, and a lot is dependent on what other teams ahead of us do, but I think we'd end up as a 3; just drawing another parallel to the 2011 season.
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Beat Rutgers!
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+1. Win tonight.
D
Deleted member 3149
I want to be 4 in the west.
1 in west- 1999- first title
2 in west- 2004- second title
3 in west- 2011- third title
4 in west- 2014- fourth title
History Repeats itself.
1 in west- 1999- first title
2 in west- 2004- second title
3 in west- 2011- third title
4 in west- 2014- fourth title
History Repeats itself.
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The difficulty with getting to a 2-seed is that there have to be fewer than 8 teams ahead of us, and some teams at the top of the P5 conferences have to win their conference tournament.
Current locks for a 2-seed or better: (1) Florida, (2) Arizona, (3) Wichita State
Likely 2-seed or better: (4) Kansas
Possible 2-seed or better: (5) Villanova, (6) Duke, (7) Wisconsin, (8) Cuse, (9) Virginia, (10) Michigan, (11) SDSU, (12) MSU, (13) Creighton
If we win out, we could be at the back end of that grouping. The problem, though, is that one of Duke/Virginia/Cuse is probably going to win the ACCT and claim a 2-seed or better, and one of Wisconsin/Michigan is probably going to win the B1GT and claim a 2-seed or better. One of Villanova/Creighton likely wins the BET and claims a 2-seed. If San Diego State wins out, they're probably a 2-seed as well.
In short, we would need a lot of other things to go right to get onto the 2-line. Frankly, I think we'd need a few things to go right even to get onto the 3-line (though the carnage in the Top 25 over the last few weeks has left the door cracked open).
A 3 or better would be ideal, but it's a longshot, even if we win out. I'd be happy with a 4 seed. I think we're more likely to end up a 5 (if 3-1 or 4-1 down the stretch), 6 (if 2-2), or 7 (if 1-2).
Current locks for a 2-seed or better: (1) Florida, (2) Arizona, (3) Wichita State
Likely 2-seed or better: (4) Kansas
Possible 2-seed or better: (5) Villanova, (6) Duke, (7) Wisconsin, (8) Cuse, (9) Virginia, (10) Michigan, (11) SDSU, (12) MSU, (13) Creighton
If we win out, we could be at the back end of that grouping. The problem, though, is that one of Duke/Virginia/Cuse is probably going to win the ACCT and claim a 2-seed or better, and one of Wisconsin/Michigan is probably going to win the B1GT and claim a 2-seed or better. One of Villanova/Creighton likely wins the BET and claims a 2-seed. If San Diego State wins out, they're probably a 2-seed as well.
In short, we would need a lot of other things to go right to get onto the 2-line. Frankly, I think we'd need a few things to go right even to get onto the 3-line (though the carnage in the Top 25 over the last few weeks has left the door cracked open).
A 3 or better would be ideal, but it's a longshot, even if we win out. I'd be happy with a 4 seed. I think we're more likely to end up a 5 (if 3-1 or 4-1 down the stretch), 6 (if 2-2), or 7 (if 1-2).
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Thanks for the effort you put into your analysis. I think your last paragraph is probably close to spot on.
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I disagree if we win out from here a two seed becomes a real probability.
29-6 with a win over UF,possibly:two over Ville, three over Memphis,and two over Cinn.
What 8 teams would have a better record?
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Nice job. To use your numbers and look at them a little differently:
(1) Florida
RPI Top 25 Wins: 2
RPI Top 50 Wins: 4
RPI Top 100 Wins: 13
Sub 100 Losses: 0
(2) Arizona
RPI Top 25 Wins: 4
RPI Top 50 Wins: 11
RPI Top 100 Wins: 15
Sub 100 Losses: 0
(3) Wichita StateRPI
Top 25 Wins: 1
RPI Top 50 Wins: 2
RPI Top 100 Wins: 10
Sub 100 Losses: 0
(4) Kansas
RPI Top 25 Wins: 7
RPI Top 50 Wins: 12
RPI Top 100 Wins: 17
Sub 100 Losses:
(5) Villanova
RPI Top 25 Wins: 1
RPI Top 50 Wins: 3
RPI Top 100 Wins: 14
Sub 100 Losses: 0
(6) Duke
RPI Top 25 Wins: 4
RPI Top 50 Wins: 5
RPI Top 100 Wins: 9
Sub 100 Losses: 1
(7) Wisconsin
RPI Top 25 Wins: 5
RPI Top 50 Wins: 8
RPI Top 100 Wins: 15
Sub 100 Losses: 1
(8) Cuse
RPI Top 25 Wins: 3
RPI Top 50 Wins: 8
RPI Top 100 Wins: 14
Sub 100 Losses: 2
(9) Virginia
RPI Top 25 Wins: 2
RPI Top 50 Wins: 4
RPI Top 100 Wins: 11
Sub 100 Losses: 0
(10) Michigan
RPI Top 25 Wins: 3
RPI Top 50 Wins: 10
RPI Top 100 Wins: 12
Sub 100 Losses: 1
(11) SDSU
RPI Top 25 Wins: 2
RPI Top 50 Wins: 2
RPI Top 100 Wins: 6
Sub 100 Losses: 1
(12) MSU
RPI Top 25 Wins: 3
RPI Top 50 Wins: 6
RPI Top 100 Wins: 9
Sub 100 Losses: 0
(13) Creighton
RPI Top 25 Wins: 2
RPI Top 50 Wins: 7
RPI Top 100 Wins: 12
Sub 100 Losses: 0
-----------------------------------------
Connecticut
RPI Top 25 Wins: 2
RPI Top 50 Wins: 5
RPI Top 100 Wins: 9
Sub 100 Losses: 1
UConn, as it stands, has Louisville (29), Rutgers (206), and then either, if they’re our of the 4-5 game, Houston (142), or some combination of Memphis (31), SMU (39), Cincy (16), or Louisville. So, maybe one more Top 25 game. Maybe more, if Louisville’s RPI goes up a few spots.
But, that 5 Top 50 wins is tenuous…Harvard snuck in at 50.
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Doesn't winning out give us 9 wins against top 50
8 of which are top 25
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