Will NIL/Portal remain like this for the next 5 years?

[NHUConnfan]

My prediction:

Revenue sharing comes in, but courts don't let them restrict 3rd party NIL without collectively bargaining. Revenue sharing has a cap, but the 3rd party is uncapped. So much of team's budgets are similar, with some teams able to outspend.

Players begin signing multi-year contracts with the schools for revenue sharing, which aids in the sport's stability and things settle down a bit for at least the core of team's rosters.

Again, "signing contracts with schools" will directly lead to classifying student athletes as employees. If you love college athletics, that is the very last thing you want. Universities cannot afford this burden, especially given how many of them are in financial distress. Most universities will completely shutter athletics programs as they are already revenue-losing ventures. Every university will drastically cut back programs. Entire sports will die overnight.

The current and very tenuous position is that students athletes are students and not employees. If anyone on this board does not fully understand the drastic consequences of classifying them as employees and why the NCAA/universities have been fighting so hard to keep it this way, then you need to read up on this before continuing this discussion further. It literally is the linchpin in this entire discussion.

 

[Zonepress]

You are 0/3. Maybe .5/3 because I am unsure your last point.

Nowhere in my post did I say the players shouldn't get paid.

Nowhere in my post did I say there wouldn't be future money for NIL.

In the current system, as a couple of posters correctly point out, NIL is currently not working as intended. In order to get a handle on the legalities and each parties rights, someone has to clarify, and then codify, them first.

You said “it isint healthy for anyone” and I disagree
It’s very “healthy” for players to make $
They could not previously

 

[Zonepress]

Again, "signing contracts with schools" will directly lead to classifying student athletes as employees. If you love college athletics, that is the very last thing you want. Universities cannot afford this burden, especially given how many of them are in financial distress. Most universities will completely shutter athletics programs as they are already revenue-losing ventures. Every university will drastically cut back programs. Entire sports will die overnight.

The current and very tenuous position is that students athletes are students and not employees. If anyone on this board does not fully understand the drastic consequences of classifying them as employees and why the NCAA/universities have been fighting so hard to keep it this way, then you need to read up on this before continuing this discussion further. It literally is the linchpin in this entire discussion.

You are spot on
Only way to put limits on Nil is to make the players employees and as you correctly pointed out, that would be disastrous
I’m not sure of the legal ease behind it, but when the colleges start making direct payments to the players, it would seem it would be a small step for them to be considered employees

 

[Beowulf]

If someone is on four different teams in four years, it’s a bit past time for someone to sit him down and say ‘it’s not them, it’s you’.

Sounds like 4 separate coaches offered him a spot though, despite this.

 

[auror]

Again, "signing contracts with schools" will directly lead to classifying student athletes as employees. If you love college athletics, that is the very last thing you want. Universities cannot afford this burden, especially given how many of them are in financial distress. Most universities will completely shutter athletics programs as they are already revenue-losing ventures. Every university will drastically cut back programs. Entire sports will die overnight.

The current and very tenuous position is that students athletes are students and not employees. If anyone on this board does not fully understand the drastic consequences of classifying them as employees and why the NCAA/universities have been fighting so hard to keep it this way, then you need to read up on this before continuing this discussion further. It literally is the linchpin in this entire discussion.

I didn't say this was what I want, I say this is what I think is going to happen. But I am much more skeptical about the doom of March Madness than you.

Even if we lose the bottom 120 revenue generating schools from D1 if athletes go to employees... that still leaves 240 schools to send teams. The top 20 or so conferences have media rights deals that would allow them to keep basketball.

 

[StllH8L8ner]

Sounds like 4 separate coaches offered him a spot though, despite this.

Yeah I mean I guess if you can do it, go for it but it just seems wrong.

 

[TheShot1990]

ChatGBT:
The New York Giants and the Alabama Crimson Tide football program both generate substantial revenue, but their financial scales are quite different due to the nature of the NFL vs. college football.

New York Giants Revenue (NFL)​

• The Giants' total revenue in 2023 was approximately $740 million.
• The team benefits from the NFL's national TV contracts, sponsorships, ticket sales, and merchandise.

Alabama Football Revenue (College)​

• The Alabama football program generated around $137 million in revenue in 2022-23.
• Unlike NFL teams, college programs rely heavily on ticket sales, conference TV deals, booster donations, and sponsorships.

Back to me:
Note, the Giants are not the most profitable nor are the Crimson Tide - I just picked these 2 at random.

So, roughly speaking, college players should earn 1/5th of their NFL counterparts.
Therefore, if Josh Allen makes $55mm a year, then a great college QB should make ~$11mm/year.

 

[Jaydumo20]

ChatGBT:
The New York Giants and the Alabama Crimson Tide football program both generate substantial revenue, but their financial scales are quite different due to the nature of the NFL vs. college football.

New York Giants Revenue (NFL)​

• The Giants' total revenue in 2023 was approximately $740 million.
• The team benefits from the NFL's national TV contracts, sponsorships, ticket sales, and merchandise.

Alabama Football Revenue (College)​

• The Alabama football program generated around $137 million in revenue in 2022-23.
• Unlike NFL teams, college programs rely heavily on ticket sales, conference TV deals, booster donations, and sponsorships.

Back to me:
Note, the Giants are not the most profitable nor are the Crimson Tide - I just picked these 2 at random.

So, roughly speaking, college players should earn 1/5th of their NFL counterparts.
Therefore, if Josh Allen makes $55mm a year, then a great college QB should make ~$11mm/year.

That scale is interesting and makes some sense

But the giants earnings shouldn't come in to play because their revenue has no bearing on how much they can pay their players.

But I get your point (and I cracked up at 'back to me')

 

[superjohn]

Again, "signing contracts with schools" will directly lead to classifying student athletes as employees. If you love college athletics, that is the very last thing you want. Universities cannot afford this burden, especially given how many of them are in financial distress. Most universities will completely shutter athletics programs as they are already revenue-losing ventures. Every university will drastically cut back programs. Entire sports will die overnight.

The current and very tenuous position is that students athletes are students and not employees. If anyone on this board does not fully understand the drastic consequences of classifying them as employees and why the NCAA/universities have been fighting so hard to keep it this way, then you need to read up on this before continuing this discussion further. It literally is the linchpin in this entire discussion.

It would be the end of college sports but every sport other than football and basketball are already doomed.

 

[Methalius]

I'm pretty sure for the 2025-26 year there will be a Cap on NIL. I have read that there will be a Cap for all sports. It is thought that the CAP for the 2025-26 year will be about 20.5M.

 

[86.578]

I'm pretty sure for the 2025-26 year there will be a Cap on NIL. I have read that there will be a Cap for all sports. It is thought that the CAP for the 2025-26 year will be about 20.5M.

I believe it's a 20.5M rev share cap per school.......23.5M NIL cap per school both numbers increasing annually for 10 years

 

[Beowulf]

Yeah I mean I guess if you can do it, go for it but it just seems wrong.

for sure, just more of a it-takes-two-to-tango type thing. we're putting a lot of hate on athletes who are just trying to maximize their earning window, when in order for that to be done, it has to be enabled by coach after coach after coach

 

[HooperScooper]

I believe it's a 20.5M rev share cap per school.......23.5M NIL cap per school both numbers increasing annually for 10 years

What will be interesting is how much each school allocates to basketball. The big moneymakers in the B1G and SEC are football teams. They're going to allocate most of the resources there.

 

[NHUConnfan]

I didn't say this was what I want, I say this is what I think is going to happen. But I am much more skeptical about the doom of March Madness than you.

Even if we lose the bottom 120 revenue generating schools from D1 if athletes go to employees... that still leaves 240 schools to send teams. The top 20 or so conferences have media rights deals that would allow them to keep basketball.

We'd be losing well over 200 D1 basketball programs.

 

[auror]

We'd be losing well over 200 D1 basketball programs.

I doubt it. For all the reasons I've outlined. Just because they're employees doesn't mean you have to pay them much.

 

[Devland]

Probably doesn’t really matter but I assume some of it is because there are lots of crazy ba$tards out there who have 4 TVs in their man cave streaming 4 different games at once. And I’m envious…

Legalized gambling has caused interest to rise.

 

[superjohn]

Legalized gambling has caused interest to rise.

Bingo. I was out for the games the first few days and all people were talking about is who they put money on through the gambling sites. Never seen anything like it.

 

[Deepster]

For one thing, it’s making Cinderella runs extinct. No small/mid program is going to jump on the back of a senior guard that carries them. That kid had a decent season a year or two before and got paid by a bigger school.

 

[NHUConnfan]

I doubt it. For all the reasons I've outlined. Just because they're employees doesn't mean you have to pay them much.

You vastly underestimate how dire many university finances are and are not accounting for the fact that enrollments are projected to drastically drop. It's a perfect storm. 200 is on the low end. It could be as high as 300. I'm not joking.

 

[auror]

You vastly underestimate how dire many university finances are and are not accounting for the fact that enrollments are projected to drastically drop. It's a perfect storm. 200 is on the low end. It could be as high as 300. I'm not joking.

The 150th ranked basketball team pays its coach over 1 mil dollars. There is money to be found to make it work. The 18th ranked conference has an 8 figure media deal.

 

[JB75]

For one thing, it’s making Cinderella runs extinct. No small/mid program is going to jump on the back of a senior guard that carries them. That kid had a decent season a year or two before and got paid by a bigger school.

Yep, just look at the sweet 16 this year —not one mid major at all. All teams from power conferences-Also didn’t help that the one basketball conference (ours obviously)had there last team knocked out Sunday. God I’m rooting hard for the SEC to get knocked out as fast as possible.

 

[cp176]

Personally i think that it is pathetic what is happening to college athletics but oh well it seems to be a sign of the times. Sadly i guess I come from an era where you had to actually academically earn your right to get in to a good school. i’m pretty sure that that that makes me a relic of lost times. I guess that is why my appreciation for kids like Alex Karaban is so high. He doesn’t necessarily need basketball to fulfill his dreams going forward.

 

[TheShot1990]

Do we eventually go the European model of professional club academies drafting young players and developing them directly? ML Baseball kinda does this already to some degree with their "schools" in the DR, etc. Universities in Europe do not recruit young athletes. Real Madrid and Juventus grab them when they are young.

 

[Stinger92860]

The P2 will absolutely thrive with salary and NIL. Why would they change that? Hell the schools don’t have to pay NIL. They will not fill the teams with anything less than 5 stars out of high school. Now they can wait a year for the minor leagues to make the 4 stars stronger and they get to see how they play. In basketball this is simple. Football not as much, but it will be the same process. Soon 28 teams from the P2 will be normal in the tournament. The CFP is already stacked. Game over.

“He do pay us the money”, morte ncaa

 

[Jaydumo20]

Bingo. I was out for the games the first few days and all people were talking about is who they put money on through the gambling sites. Never seen anything like it.

My wife is confused as to why my brother in law and I don't get along.

2 minutes after the Florida game he texted me:
"Damn. I had UConn on the money line."

Before that text he was the godfather of my son.