Will NIL/Portal remain like this for the next 5 years?

[Jaydumo20]

When a new designer recreational drug hits the streets the govt always lags a bit in regulation. Many things need to be done to catch up.
The Transfer Portal/NIL is wild, for sure, but is it a stable framework for college sports going fwd? Or is this just a few years of melee before they can agree how to regulate it?

To clarify, a minor tweak to the system doesn't count as change.

More specifically Will these things stay in place or not in 5 years time.

1. Unlimited transfers
2. No contracts
3. No Cap

(I know a lot will say it depends on so many factors. So does everything in life. Compare it to this scenario: will a newlywed couple stay together or separate in 5 years. There are many factors, for sure, but a definite yes or no is feasible.

Example: if transfers are limited to one transfer and then a sit out year your answer should be no, since unlimited transfers would be no more.

 

[uconngb]

I answered no more out of hope than an opinion

 

[Kenny11]

I don't think any of those things change but I do think that the prices paid for transfers won't get much higher than it apparently is now...at least from a collective/donor level. It could get higher based on based on revenue sharing, ticket prices increasing etc.

 

[DCUconnfan]

I answered yes, but could have also answered no for the same reason.

I think it's actually going to get 'worse'. And by worse, I mean in 5 years we'll officially have a P2 with maybe 48 total teams that have all of the resources to become their own entity away from the NCAA, student athletes in this league structure are now Athlete students that are paid to play as close to an employee as possible without getting unionized (and eventually will be employees & get unionized if so desired) and amateurism as we know it is completely dead.

 

[boog204]

I have no idea, and I hope there is some remedy. I do not know the legal ramifications, but I hate the portal. The fact that AJ Storr is doing school four and that we're probably spending tons of time/$$ trying to convince key players to stay, while simultaneously searching for players to fill out our roster while others leave, just completely sucks.

Is there a way to cap portal usage? Can you only portal 1-2 times? Can we bring back the transfer year off (unless there's a coaching change/extenuating circumstance)? I mean, something has to change, or most teams will pretty much have a new roster every year. I expect us to have roughly 9-10 new players next year and probably around the same amount the following year. That just kills the entire vibe of college basketball.

 

[Jaydumo20]

I have no idea, and I hope there is some remedy. I do not know the legal ramifications, but I hate the portal. The fact that AJ Storr is doing school four and that we're probably spending tons of time/$$ trying to convince key players to stay, while simultaneously searching for players to fill out our roster while others leave, just completely sucks.

Is there a way to cap portal usage? Can you only portal 1-2 times? Can we bring back the transfer year off (unless there's a coaching change/extenuating circumstance)? I mean, something has to change, or most teams will pretty much have a new roster every year. I expect us to have roughly 9-10 new players next year and probably around the same amount the following year. That just kills the entire vibe of college basketball.

Too many people will agree with you. And btw, we have reaped the benefits of the portal more than anyone. And we still hate it.

 

[Blue Blood]

This may be true. when it comes to losing tons of money though for the non p3 (college towns, businesses that rely on games for business, universities research departments that rely on sports revenue, etc.,) the trickle down effect that we haven't seen yet will make this political. The govt will get involved.

One small school fighting a big boy won't do any damage, but... there are just as many fans and schools in the "field" then there are in the big 4. They will take it higher if it costs them too much.

Based on current rhetoric and precedent from court decisions I don't think government involvement will take it back to the way it was far more likely to me schools will be left to stand on their own. I'm not smart enough to know if that is a good or bad thing long term but we are not currently moving in any direction towards stricter regulation in the current climate.

 

[Gutter King]

There are a ton of resources being wasted in this process. The novelty of the free for all nature of NIL would have been exhausted by five years. May get worse before it gets better. I haven't even tried to get a clear grip on the legalities, but I am hoping within the next couple of years we get two year contracts or something that to that effect.

Maybe those contracts can get voided if you get drafted. Unsure.

I'm a hopeful no. This just isn't really healthy for anyone...and I doubt it's sustainable as is.

 

[Deleted at users request]

I’m passing this along as opinion, not inside info, but I had a professor in one of my graduate classes talk about how the NCAA is purposefully letting it be a free for all and have it be a huge headache for congress so congress can eventually reinstate them as the people in charge of regulating it.

Paraphrasing of course. But it would make sense if congress eventually gets tired of taking all these cases.

 

[Zonepress]

There are a ton of resources being wasted in this process. The novelty of the free for all nature of NIL would have been exhausted by five years. May get worse before it gets better. I haven't even tried to get a clear grip on the legalities, but I am hoping within the next couple of years we get two year contracts or something that to that effect.

Maybe those contracts can get voided if you get drafted. Unsure.

I'm a hopeful no. This just isn't really healthy for anyone...and I doubt it's sustainable as is.

Why is it not healthy for the players to be getting paid when previously they didn’t get anything?
And if there’s no money for N, IL down the road (which isn’t going to happen, )
then, so be it that would be the marketplace
And as you stated, it would be a good idea to get a handle on the legalities

 

[StllH8L8ner]

Should take the top 20 richest people in the U.S. and give them honorary doctorates to entice them to donate some funds to our collective tax free. Gotta think outside the box!

 

[Beowulf]

Hoping we can ge something in place. I can't go on knowing there's kids i'll never meet transferring between schools i'll never watch on their own free will. Need this regulated for my viewing experience, which matters most.

The portal is still evolving, some kinks will work themselves out.

1. Unlimited transfers - why not. if you're academically eligible, why should i stop you from playing where you've been offered to play. Some guys abuse it but hey, someone is offering them the chance to do so. If coaches are really against this, then stop recruiting those guys. You can't be the third school in three years for a guy and then be annoyed when he leaves again.
2. No contracts - not opposed to contracts, but why would a player accept? would be the easiest negotiating tactic to undercut a school who is making a player take a two-year contract. Maybe stop recruiting guys who bounce around every single season. You know you can check on that, right? No one makes schools recruit guys like this.
3. No Cap - nah let them ball out. I don't need even-ness. P4 schools are bigger and better, but not unbeatable. A better mid major can build a better McNeese. Homegrow some guys, bring in some castaways. You can compete and build a culture. It's one year of chalk. We just had Florida Atlantic in a final four not two years ago.

 

[Gutter King]

Why is it not healthy for the players to be getting paid when previously they didn’t get anything?
And if there’s no money for N, IL down the road (which isn’t going to happen, )
then, so be it that would be the marketplace
And as you stated, it would be a good idea to get a handle on the legalities

You are 0/3. Maybe .5/3 because I am unsure your last point.

Nowhere in my post did I say the players shouldn't get paid.

Nowhere in my post did I say there wouldn't be future money for NIL.

In the current system, as a couple of posters correctly point out, NIL is currently not working as intended. In order to get a handle on the legalities and each parties rights, someone has to clarify, and then codify, them first.

 

[RuffRuff]

At minimum, for the betterment of the sport, I'm hoping there is some aspect of locking in a kid contractually, even if two years max. The AJ Storr stories are nauseating. Providing some structure that allows for some longer term planning really needs to be installed, as this utter chaos is entirely anti-collegiate. I realize that offering coaches and players the flexibility to move could be beneficial to both sides, but that doesn't have to be annually. All that does is drop accountability on decisions and waters down the point of what this level embodies. 2 year contracts feel like a fair balance to me.

 

[Jaydumo20]

I’m passing this along as opinion, not inside info, but I had a professor in one of my graduate classes talk about how the NCAA is purposefully letting it be a free for all and have it be a huge headache for congress so congress can eventually reinstate them as the people in charge of regulating it.

Paraphrasing of course. But it would make sense if congress eventually gets tired of ta king all these cases.

That's as good of a theory as I've heard yet. Also, I don't think either side wants the players to be in charge.

 

[StllH8L8ner]

At minimum, for the betterment of the sport, I'm hoping there is some aspect of locking in a kid contractually, even if two years max. The AJ Storr stories are nauseating. Providing some structure that allows for some longer term planning really needs to be installed, as this utter chaos is entirely anti-collegiate. I realize that offering coaches and players the flexibility to move could be beneficial to both sides, but that doesn't have to be annually. All that does is drop accountability on decisions and waters down the point of what this level embodies. 2 year contracts feel like a fair balance to me.

If someone is on four different teams in four years, it’s a bit past time for someone to sit him down and say ‘it’s not them, it’s you’.

 

[Rowdy831]

Congress rarely does anything that help the situation and this would be another example of that if it happens. The Big Ten and SEC are in control of major athletics at the college level and when they bleed out all the smaller conferences and poach the teams they want in the super conferences they will enact rules written or understood.

Right now the NIL has helped the smaller schools as much as the larger ones to some degree. What is happening now though is the big donors (and big schools have the numbers here too) are getting involved and that is not going to be good or healthy for the game. For some fans they will say the Big Ten is finally on a level field with the SEC but at what end?

I think the fans will lose some interest overall but the bigger impact will be programs at smaller schools fading away. You might have a day in the near future where schools might only have a handful of teams and not participate at all in others. That will be a sad day.

 

[HuskyHawk]

I’m passing this along as opinion, not inside info, but I had a professor in one of my graduate classes talk about how the NCAA is purposefully letting it be a free for all and have it be a huge headache for congress so congress can eventually reinstate them as the people in charge of regulating it.

Paraphrasing of course. But it would make sense if congress eventually gets tired of taking all these cases.

Charlie Baker went in front of Congress and said as much. The courts have tied the NCAA's hands. They can try to build another regulatory scheme, but they will just be sued again and possibly lose if they do. So they can't fix this until Congress steps in.

 

[RuffRuff]

A good reason things may not change. Whether you like it or not the sport is growing.

 

[StllH8L8ner]

A good reason things may not change. Whether you like it or not the sport is growing.

Probably doesn’t really matter but I assume some of it is because there are lots of crazy ba$tards out there who have 4 TVs in their man cave streaming 4 different games at once. And I’m envious…

 

[auror]

My prediction:

Revenue sharing comes in, but courts don't let them restrict 3rd party NIL without collectively bargaining. Revenue sharing has a cap, but the 3rd party is uncapped. So much of team's budgets are similar, with some teams able to outspend.

Players begin signing multi-year contracts with the schools for revenue sharing, which aids in the sport's stability and things settle down a bit for at least the core of team's rosters.

 

[Jaydumo20]

A good reason things may not change. Whether you like it or not the sport is growing.

Right, but it still resembles the tourney we love, for now. We had the pieces we thought were gonna get us 3. They just didn't pan out.

For what it's worth, I thought the football playoffs were horrendous. When the big schools control things the product suuuuuuuxxxxx!

 

[JB75]

Still can’t believe they opened the portal yesterday right in the middle of the Sweet16 //these people aren’t too bright -can’t wait 2 more weeks???

 

[RuffRuff]

Right, but it still resembles the tourney we love, for now. We had the pieces we thought were gonna get us 3. They just didn't pan out.

This is an interesting year because the field is all big schools, and Duke. I would suspect that has something to do with it as well.

I’ve mentioned it before, but having been to the CWS this past year, those SEC fans are different. They come in droves and are vibrant. And boy do they know how to tailgate. I was in Santa Fe this past fall and a whole family was dressed in burnt orange for UT game day. Those regions live and breath sports at a crazy level. Unless you see it up close, it’s hard to understand.

 

[Excalibur]