Why was Marquette game closer than expected?

[Dogstar]

Hard disagree on this tangential point. Sarah is not our best player. She is one of two best players. Azzi is as important to the team as Sarah, and may be more difficult to replace if she gets sick. It’s easy to overlook what she does all over the floor because Sarah is so good, and her great plays are hard to miss. But Azzi does a bit of everything.

I'm not disagreeing with ur post but I am thinking tht you may be underestimating Sarah's contribution to this team. If she's out for an extended period of time the team will have to depend on Serah & Jana in the front court...and imo tht ain't good. If Azzi is out (not saying anyone plays like her) there's a "replace by committee" situation. Kinda like the team is doing now after the graduation of Paige.
Sarah's stats are off the charts
1st in scoring
1st in rebounds
1st in steals
1st in blocks
1st in fg%
2nd in ft%
2nd in assists
4th in 3pt% (39.6) Which isn't bad considering the combined shooters above her are shooting an average of 44.7%

 

[NycUcWbbFan]

Might it also be possible that the defensive rebounding was down (I see 1st game DRB% was 71.4% vs 61.3%) in which guards like Shade and Heckel had to rebound more resulting in less opporunities for efficient fastbreaks because one less passing guard and/or shooter is up the floor? Then again, this game vs the 1st had pace near the same.

In the 1st game Sarah was dreb% 28.6%. Blanca who plays a lot of the 4 position was 25.8%. So in those 47 minutes they played many of their passes would go to a guard who would have two guards on the wing vs in this game one guard pinned down more - probbaly more because of Sarah not feeling well and Blanca out.

Just a thought.

UConn’s DRB% (this shows as Defense ORB % in Pic 3, below) is the same &2 in the two Marquette games.

• The Defense Four Factors (see Red Arrow in Pic 3), in addition to similar Marquette points in the same number of possessions, led me to infer that UConn’s “defense held”. &1

This Marquette game is a very good stress-test game in one very important respect. It exposed that, other than Azzi and Sarah, the rest of the Top 9 (sans Blanca) do not fully yet have that “hit something orange” moxie of Diana, Nika and Paige;

• Now, Geno and CD, can use this game to bring that out.

Pic 3: Source Torvik.

&1 Some have claimed that Marquette’s new(?) ability to make UConn’s switching defense yield exploitable mismatches “surprised” UConn. UConn shouldn’t be surprised (Rebecca commented on this overt strategy several times in South Carolina’s games with UConn last year), maybe a little bit rusty.

&2 Fastbreak points / Points Off Turnovers are the same in the two games (Pics 1 and 2 in prior post).

 

[BobbyJ]

Hard disagree on this tangential point. Sarah is not our best player. She is one of two best players. Azzi is as important to the team as Sarah, and may be more difficult to replace if she gets sick. It’s easy to overlook what she does all over the floor because Sarah is so good, and her great plays are hard to miss. But Azzi does a bit of everything.

Can’t agree here. Strong is irreplaceable. Her presence masks UConn’s two most vulnerable areas. Inside offense and interior defense. Without her they have none of the former and very little of the latter and against good teams the ten fouls to use between Williams and El Alfy will be used quickly. She’ll most likely need to play close to 40 mpg against UCLA or SC.

 

[hoophuskee]

Hard disagree on this tangential point. Sarah is not our best player. She is one of two best players. Azzi is as important to the team as Sarah, and may be more difficult to replace if she gets sick. It’s easy to overlook what she does all over the floor because Sarah is so good, and her great plays are hard to miss. But Azzi does a bit of everything.

Azzi is my favorite player. But I think Sarah is the best player in WCBB. You're asking me to cut off my right arm so I can more utilize my left.
I'm very tempted. You're a devil, you are.
I tell you I won't do it! I won't! 😀

 

[hoophuskee]

UConn’s DRB% (this shows as Defense ORB % in Pic 3, below) is the same &2 in the two Marquette games.

• The Defense Four Factors (see Red Arrow in Pic 3), in addition to similar Marquette points in the same number of possessions, led me to infer that UConn’s “defense held”. &1

This Marquette game is a very good stress-test game in one very important respect. It exposed that, other than Azzi and Sarah, the rest of the Top 9 (sans Blanca) do not fully yet have that “hit something orange” moxie of Diana, Nika and Paige;

• Now, Geno and CD, can use this game to bring that out.

Pic 3: Source Torvik.
View attachment 117112

&1 Some have claimed that Marquette’s new(?) ability to make UConn’s switching defense yield exploitable mismatches “surprised” UConn. UConn shouldn’t be surprised (Rebecca commented on this overt strategy several times in South Carolina’s games with UConn last year), maybe a little bit rusty.

&2 Fastbreak points / Points Off Turnovers are the same in the two games (Pics 1 and 2 in prior post).

I cant read yoru chart. Basketball Reference was where I got my info. of approx 71% vs 61%. and that the guards of Shade and Heckel rebounded more than game 1.

 

[DEpup]

We have a Serah Williams problem when Sarah and Blanca aren't 100%.... It's that simple. If the interior scoring isn't there then the defense can focus on the guards. Then the offense gets ugly when the balance in a motion is off.

 

[Bone Dog]

Can’t agree here. Strong is irreplaceable. Her presence masks UConn’s two most vulnerable areas. Inside offense and interior defense. Without her they have none of the former and very little of the latter and against good teams the ten fouls to use between Williams and El Alfy will be used quickly. She’ll most likely need to play close to 40 mpg against UCLA or SC.

You make a good point. I agree with your analysis but not with your conclusion. It only shows how key Sarah is within the structure of our team, not that she is the best player on the team.

I’d also add that though folks are fond of saying that Sarah is irreplaceable while Azzi could be replaced “by committee,” I think this is a pipe dream. Sarah alone could not create the open looks for everyone else. To accomplish that, either Serah or Blanca would have to step up in a really big way. But most folks here are busy doubting Serah, and Blanca is not currently available and may not have the maturity to do what Azzi does every night.

Next season, Sarah and Blanca will have to be the twin foundation of this team without Azzi. They’ll have lots of help from our ever maturing guard corps, and Olivia and Jana. By then, I’d be willing to bet Blanca will have become the partner Sarah needs, the one Azzi currently is. In fact, I’d even wager that Sarah’s bid for 4 NCs will depend on the well layered (staggered?) veteran guards Geno has been carefully assembling for years.

 

[NycUcWbbFan]

I cant read yoru chart. Basketball Reference was where I got my info. of approx 71% vs 61%. and that the guards of Shade and Heckel rebounded more than game 1.

The comparable page to Torvik in SRSCB is here (see the Defensive Four Factors ORB% — Marquette’s ORB%). They are similar in both games which implies that UConn’s DRB% are the similar.

• In absolute terms, one can use this page for ORB and DRB;
• In both games, UConn’s DRB and Marquette’s ORB are the same; and as stated before, fastbreak points and points off turnovers in both games were similar;
• However, this past Marquette game, UConn’s ORB went down (15 to 6) as Marquette’s DRB went up (14 to 25).

 

[BobbyJ]

You make a good point. I agree with your analysis but not with your conclusion. It only shows how key Sarah is within the structure of our team, not that she is the best player on the team.

I’d also add that though folks are fond of saying that Sarah is irreplaceable while Azzi could be replaced “by committee,” I think this is a pipe dream. Sarah alone could not create the open looks for everyone else. To accomplish that, either Serah or Blanca would have to step up in a really big way. But most folks here are busy doubting Serah, and Blanca is not currently available and may not have the maturity to do what Azzi does every night.

Next season, Sarah and Blanca will have to be the twin foundation of this team without Azzi. They’ll have lots of help from our ever maturing guard corps, and Olivia and Jana. By then, I’d be willing to bet Blanca will have become the partner Sarah needs, the one Azzi currently is. In fact, I’d even wager that Sarah’s bid for 4 NCs will depend on the well layered (staggered?) veteran guards Geno has been carefully assembling for years.

Obviously coaches realize that when facing a very strong team like UConn with multiple strengths, they can't neutralize everything. I'm comfortable in believing that because of everything she does, Strong is the priority target in most all coach's game plans. Pretty much everything UConn does revolves around Strong from anchoring the defense of a 4 guard lineup to facilitating the offense from a high post and scoring inside and out. Fudd cannot do those two things so the opponents will take their chances with UConn's other options. Coaches prioritize the most valuable asset of the opponent first. Obviously fans and media can have their own opinions but I'll agree with the people who would likely best recognize it. I don't think you'll find too many coaches or players (Auriemma and Fudd included) who don't think Strong is the best player on this team.

 

[hoophuskee]

The comparable page to Torvik in SRSCB is here (see the Defensive Four Factors ORB% — Marquette’s ORB%). They are similar in both games which implies that UConn’s DRB% are the similar.

• In absolute terms, one can use this page for ORB and DRB;
• In both games, UConn’s DRB and Marquette’s ORB are the same; and as stated before, fastbreak points and points off turnovers in both games were similar;
• However, this past Marquette game, UConn’s ORB went down (15 to 6) as Marquette’s DRB went up (14 to 25).

Okay thank you. I see you are using Tovrik. And this makes my head spin at certain times with all these stats but Tovrik cannot account for a player like Sarah Strong being sick. From what I understand Tovrik is more full season as well. Not as much game to game. Game to game comparison there's a gap from Sarah from 1 game vs another which is enormous from 28.9% in game 1 vs game 2 of 4.9%. Her season is about 25.7%. Last year it was Over 26%. The 4.9% is an anomaly and allows the other team to exploit. As comparing one game vs the other I think Tovrik levels things out, doesn’t it? In this case imo the raw number occasion imo is better to use from basketball reference which is our point of comparing this one game recently vs the game 2 months ago as to why Marquette got more rebounds. . UCONN is clearly a much better team rebounding when they have a healthy Sarah Strong on the floor. And Marquetta would more-than-like gotten as many rebounds as a result.

Which if Sarah were healthy, we wouldn’t be reading all the posts as to how bad of a rebounding team UCONN is. Especially factoring in there was no Blanca either.

 

[Skeets]

Don't get me wrong, I am a huge Blanca fan. I truly believe she will be a super star, but she's not there yet. It appears to me, at least here on the BY, that her reputation is growing more by not playing than by playing.

 

[DaddyChoc]

all that switching will get you tired and confused... cant have it both ways! steals or rebounds

 

[Pharos]

I remember the days with DT, and Maya, and Stewie, and the way the rest of the team would just relax when they would Take and make three or four shots early in the game - it even happen when they moved to the W and when they played for the USA. The rest of the team would see that and go 'Yeah, we got this!'

Paige and Azzi are those types of players as well, but their college careers have been so disrupted by injuries to themselves and their teammates that that reliance didn't/hasn't really developed.

Sarah is another of those players. She screams 'I got this!' in her own whispering, shy voice to her teammates.

And then yesterday, that Sarah didn't show up until the second half! And the it was a shock for her teammates. Suddenly it wasn't 'Well, if I shoot well, we may win by 40 instead of 30, that would kinda cool!' but instead 'If this shot doesn't go in, they may tie the game!' Suddenly taking a shot wasn't fun, maybe its better to pass to someone else. Let Azzi do this! And she did for the most part - she averages 13.6 shots a game this year and yesterday she took 14 shots in the first half. KK was back to her normal self. Jana averages a little under 1 shot every 4 minutes and went 2-2 in her 8 min in the first half. But ... no one else even matched their normal production. Allie for example averages more than a shot every 4 minutes for the year (though I suspect that is much higher in 2026), and she took a shot every 12.5 minutes yeasterday. Shade took 3 shots in the 15 first half min. etc.

It was an off game, and they won easily, but it was a slog. I am confident that Sarah, Azzi, and KK know what to do when it is important. On this one test, I am not confident that the rest of the team can rise to the occasion. A good game to experience for the players, and a good coaching tool I suspect.

NB I don't think Sarah has an issue - she certainly didn't have one in the second half - I don't think she was 'cured' in the 10 minutes in the locker room!

Maybe what was "cured" in the locker room at halftime was which shots would be most strategic for Sarah to take. The longer stuff was falling short. So, hey, post up.... over... and over... and over... : )

 

[NycUcWbbFan]

Okay thank you. I see you are using Tovrik. And this makes my head spin at certain times with all these stats but Tovrik cannot account for a player like Sarah Strong being sick. From what I understand Tovrik is more full season as well. Not as much game to game. Game to game comparison there's a gap from Sarah from 1 game vs another which is enormous from 28.9% in game 1 vs game 2 of 4.9%. Her season is about 25.7%. Last year it was Over 26%. The 4.9% is an anomaly and allows the other team to exploit. As comparing one game vs the other I think Tovrik levels things out, doesn’t it? In this case imo the raw number occasion imo is better to use from basketball reference which is our point of comparing this one game recently vs the game 2 months ago as to why Marquette got more rebounds. . UCONN is clearly a much better team rebounding when they have a healthy Sarah Strong on the floor. And Marquetta would more-than-like gotten as many rebounds as a result.

Which if Sarah were healthy, we wouldn’t be reading all the posts as to how bad of a rebounding team UCONN is. Especially factoring in there was no Blanca either.

Sarah also has a by-game Torvik page, and I agree with you that Sarah being sick is a big part of the differences between the two games. But it doesn’t explain why the rest of the Top 9 (sans Azzi and Blanca) did not compensate in offense or offensive rebounding.

• As a stress-test, Geno and CD probably are thankful that they can now harp on the ”punch something orange” moxie of the other Top 9, as it has been somewhat masked with all the dominance of this team.

 

[JellyBean]

I am going with fatigue, missing players, and familiarity. We all know that, for some teams, it is hard to beat them twice by the same or greater margin. Some teams adjust and their coaches figure out a way to stop/slow the game down a little. Also, if you look back at that December game against Marquette, we had Blanca and we shot the lights out that game. So, I am going with fatigue, players out getting healthy, and Marquette made adjustments.

 

[Bone Dog]

I am going with fatigue, missing players, and familiarity. We all know that, for some teams, it is hard to beat them twice by the same or greater margin. Some teams adjust and their coaches figure out a way to stop/slow the game down a little. Also, if you look back at that December game against Marquette, we had Blanca and we shot the lights out that game. So, I am going with fatigue, players out getting healthy, and Marquette made adjustments.

I’d add that several BE teams have players on their rosters who can/have played on other top 25 teams. On Marquette, I’d say Forbes could probably play, maybe even start, on lots of contending teams. And Volker is a Duke transfer, isn’t she? She knows how to play on a defensive-minded team.

 

[JellyBean]

I’d add that several BE teams have players on their rosters who can/have played on other top 25 teams. On Marquette, I’d say Forbes could probably play, maybe even start, on lots of contending teams. And Volker is a Duke transfer, isn’t she? She knows how to play on a defensive-minded team.

Yep. Volker is a Duke transfer and her and Forbes, with their size and length, makes things interesting on the defensive end of things.

 

[joea]

They missed 10+ shots inside the foul line, and another 5+ from around the foul line.
Make 30% of those and it is a 25 point game.
However, what happened is what happened. Want to avoid going cold like that. Giving up 56 points is not shabby. Scoring 71? Meh.

 

[browns]

Obviously coaches realize that when facing a very strong team like UConn with multiple strengths, they can't neutralize everything. I'm comfortable in believing that because of everything she does, Strong is the priority target in most all coach's game plans. Pretty much everything UConn does revolves around Strong from anchoring the defense of a 4 guard lineup to facilitating the offense from a high post and scoring inside and out. Fudd cannot do those two things so the opponents will take their chances with UConn's other options. Coaches prioritize the most valuable asset of the opponent first. Obviously fans and media can have their own opinions but I'll agree with the people who would likely best recognize it. I don't think you'll find too many coaches or players (Auriemma and Fudd included) who don't think Strong is the best player on this team.

You are 100 % correct ! Sara is by far the best player on the team and the best player in the nation

 

[FanFromMaine]

Memphis 2015

 

[Rudy1927]

When we have Williams on the floor with KK it really slows the offense down because teams give both of them open shots and neither seems like they want to take them. That’s with Blanca out and Sara not up to par. Seems like a triangle and two on Sara and Azzi would be a smart way to play that lineup

 

[Price0809]

15 points is not a close game . It just isn’t a crazy margin.

Agreed. If an off night is a 15-point win, everything is more than fine.

 

[Dogstar]

When we have Williams on the floor with KK it really slows the offense down because teams give both of them open shots and neither seems like they want to take them. That’s with Blanca out and Sara not up to par. Seems like a triangle and two on Sara and Azzi would be a smart way to play that lineup

How would you suggest they fix tht problem?

 

[GetReal2day]

How would you suggest they fix tht problem?

Start Blanca, bring Williams in with K9

 

[NycUcWbbFan]

Start Blanca, bring Williams in with K9

Below are the KK + Serah duo rotations. Their Per 40 +/- is 40.41.

• The Per 40 +/- for the Team is 38.78 (1,047 x 40 min / 18 hours). (HerHoopStats’s NetPts is 38.80).
• The KK + Serah duo is instrumental to UConn’s keys to winning;
• Other metrics confirm Serah’s importance to the team.

As with LY, Geno and CD do not start with small ball. It will wear Sarah out in a long season.

• Current rotations preserve Sarah’s efficacy (see below).