Why The Selection Committee is a Joke

[Tenspro2002]

That's pure laziness by the committee and total BS. The committee rep used to come on TV and explain how they had different scenarios based on which team would win the late games on Sunday. Now they don't talk about it because they don't do it.

Forget Sunday, they didn't even make adjustments based on Saturday's results.

 

[Kolumbo]

I would like to see some video of people blasting the committee. I saw this post on the SJU site and someone claimed they never took into account injuries before. I don't know if that's true or not. Maybe I'll find Mad dog going on a rant.

 

[tzznandrew]

The simple answer is that you are using KenPom to represent 100% of your analysis, and the Committee considers many ratings and factors. Ken Pom cares how much you beat lousy teams by. Many don’t think that should be a factor, and resume based rankings don’t give margin of victory any weight whatsoever. Just like — I don’t know — the NBA and MLB and the NFL.

People are freaked out by an Auburn team that lost to Appalachian State, whose best OOC win was Indiana, and was 1-3 vs. Alabama, Tennessee, and Kentucky.

Auburn's metrics look great in part because they walloped South Carolina (a team that beat nobody OOC, though they did beat Kentucky and Tennessee), Arkansas, and other mid-to-low-tier SEC schools.

Let's worry about Auburn, Illinois, Iowa State, BYU, South Dakota, whatever, when they make it to Boston. Only a few—at most—of them are making it to Boston.

 

[Tenspro2002]

People are freaked out by an Auburn team that lost to Appalachian State, whose best OOC win was Indiana, and was 1-3 vs. Alabama, Tennessee, and Kentucky.

Auburn's metrics look great in part because they walloped South Carolina (a team that beat nobody OOC, though they did beat Kentucky and Tennessee), Arkansas, and other mid-to-low-tier SEC schools.

Let's worry about Auburn, Illinois, Iowa State, BYU, South Dakota, whatever, when they make it to Boston. Only a few—at most—of them are making it to Boston.

The concern about Auburn is that the "error bar" on their true quality is very, very large.

They may be a legitimate top 5 team (if you believe KenPom or NET) and snakebitten in close losses. On the other hand, they may be analytics frauds and not capable of holding their own against elite teams. We have no idea.

But you're right, they might not even make it to Boston, and we could end up with a SDSU rematch, though that in itself isn't great from a familiarity/revenge point of view.

 

[tzznandrew]

The concern about Auburn is that the "error bar" on their true quality is very, very large.

They may be a legitimate top 5 team (if you believe KenPom or NET) and snakebitten in close losses. On the other hand, they may be analytics frauds and not capable of holding their own against elite teams. We have no idea.

But you're right, they might not even make it to Boston, and we could end up with a SDSU rematch, though that in itself isn't great from a familiarity/revenge point of view.

They didn't lose super-close games to Tennessee or Kentucky. I think they should have been a 3 seed. But I'm not all that hot and bothered by them.

 

[Sea Goat]

I've said this before - taking March Madness away from the NCAA would kill it! There no reason why the elite college BB teams can't replicate what the football powers have done. Cut the NCAA out of March Madness and the NCAA will dry up and blow away...

 

[Rocktheworld]

There’s a reasonable case that the East region was miserably botched, and the most likely explanation is that the brackets were finalized on Thursday except for the order of the 1 seeds, and the autobids if there was an upset

There’s also a reasonable case from Auburn/Iowa St/Illinois fans that they went on a tear to unexpectedly win P5 tournaments, and their reward is to be put in the same region as the overall #1

The path is harder than it should be, but each game is essentially a home game and UConn will still be favored every single round, no matter what

Lets go Huskies.

This bracket is a perfect case for AI seeding. AI can and would do a better job.

 

[VAHuskyFan]

The simple answer is that you are using KenPom to represent 100% of your analysis, and the Committee considers many ratings and factors. Ken Pom cares how much you beat lousy teams by. Many don’t think that should be a factor, and resume based rankings don’t give margin of victory any weight whatsoever. Just like — I don’t know — the NBA and MLB and the NFL.

The simple answer is that the Committee got lazy and didn’t adjust anything based on conference tournaments.

Kenpom is just a data point. Would you prefer NET? Here’s Top-10 NET teams by region:

East: 4 / South: 2 / Midwest: 2 / West: 2

You mentioned resume-based. Fine. Here’s Top-10 BPI Resume teams by region:

East: 4 / South: 2 / Midwest: 2 / West: 2

You seem to maybe want to just count wins and losses “like the NBA.” Uh . . . OK? Here’s the number of top 4 seeds in each region with 7 or fewer losses:

East: 3 / South: 1 / Midwest:1 / West: 1

Number of conference champions among Top 4 seeds?

East: 4 / South: 0 / Midwest: 0 / West: 0

Same answer every time.

Keep in mind that as the No. 1 overall, our 2-4s should be relatively weaker than those of our regions. Not only are they not weaker, they are the strongest by just about any metric you can find.

 

[businesslawyer]

The simple answer is that the Committee got lazy and didn’t adjust anything based on conference tournaments.

Kenpom is just a data point. Would you prefer NET? Here’s Top-10 NET teams by region:

East: 4 / South: 2 / Midwest: 2 / West: 2

You mentioned resume-based. Fine. Here’s Top-10 BPI Resume teams by region:

East: 4 / South: 2 / Midwest: 2 / West: 2

You seem to maybe want to just count wins and losses “like the NBA.” Uh . . . OK I guess? Here’s the number of top 4 seeds in each region with 7 or fewer losses:

East: 3 / South: 1 / Midwest:1 / West: 1

Same answer every time.

I agree with you that little if any weight was given to conference tournaments. I don’t think that’s a just this year thing, but it certainly made the brackets look funny in more ways than it usually does this year.

 

[Kolumbo]

Solution:
If a team wins its conference tournament and steals a bid, then another team from that same conference gets bumped. This way it keeps the number of bids by conference more in-line with what they deserve. A bubble-ish team from a conference gets knocked out by its own conference member. This year there is no reason for MWC and ACC to get 6 and 5 while the Big East gets 3. It just makes no sense. If the legit players in a conference can't finish the job, that conference should be punished.

NC State steals a bid, UVA gets chopped, or Clemson gets mauled since UVA doesn't belong anyway.

Oregon steals a bid, Washington St gets washed

New Mexico steals a bid, Colorado St gets rammed

 

[tzznandrew]

Solution:
If a team wins its conference tournament and steals a bid, then another team from that same conference gets bumped.

You can't do that. There were years were Gonzaga was one of the best 10 teams in the country but the WCC was a one-bid league.

Just pick the best teams. We're upset about St. John's or Seton Hall not being in, but it isn't as if they were going to win the title. The committee just has to do a better job, not rewrite the rulebook

 

[Inyatkin]

You can't do that. There were years were Gonzaga was one of the best 10 teams in the country but the WCC was a one-bid league.

Just pick the best teams. We're upset about St. John's or Seton Hall not being in, but it isn't as if they were going to win the title. The committee just has to do a better job, not rewrite the rulebook

Alternatively, the committee could take their job remotely seriously. We're a long way from "do a better job."

 

[Kolumbo]

You can't do that. There were years were Gonzaga was one of the best 10 teams in the country but the WCC was a one-bid league.

Just pick the best teams. We're upset about St. John's or Seton Hall not being in, but it isn't as if they were going to win the title. The committee just has to do a better job, not rewrite the rulebook

I was focused on the larger conferences because sure, a conference like WCC or A-10 which are usually one bid conferences anyway would be tough to apply this to. But it can certainly be applied to the MWC and ACC where there could be a 2 bid swing. The dollars today and the financial impact to the conferences too large to allow this to happen with so many bid stealers. You can say pick the best teams but that is not happening when both UVA and NC State get selected. This would solidify at least one remedy to the bids being so skewed.

 

[tzznandrew]

Alternatively, the committee could take their job remotely seriously. We're a long way from "do a better job."

Yeah, admitting on air they were more or less done at 2 AM Sunday morning (or was it Saturday?) was not a good look.

 

[Tdaley]

this is exactly what I was saying around 6:15 when the selections were announced. The committee puts up this facade that it is objective and driven academically by data and it isn't. Like Tenspro has been saying, I think they had UConn at the #3 overall and set up their bracket that way and then when the results of late Friday and the weekend occurred they stayed with those brackets. Instead they should have been doing the hard work they were supposed to and rearranging the teams based on the conference tournament results.

These is exactly right. The committee could have gone back to the prearranged brackets after the conference tournaments had finished and made a few adjustments. They took the lazy way out did nothing which left the East Bracket with too many teams playing great basketball at the end of the year. It is disappointing.

 

[7774]

Yeah, admitting on air they were more or less done at 2 AM Sunday morning (or was it Saturday?) was not a good look.

Yeah I don't have much issue with what the committee did except this. Stop saying it's the total body of work when you're obviously not making any adjustments based upon at least the last 2 rounds of the conference tournaments.

It's also real annoying that the games they are ignoring are neutral site tournament games played immediately before a championship determined by neutral site tournament games. Seems like those are relevant.

I'm not sure what happened because they used to take these into account. There is no way we're getting a 3 seed in 2011 without a lot of the Big East Tournament being considered.

 

[huskyjawz]

Yeah I don't have much issue with what the committee did except this. Stop saying it's the total body of work when you're obviously not making any adjustments based upon at least the last 2 rounds of the conference tournaments.

It's also real annoying that the games they are ignoring are neutral site tournament games played immediately before a championship determined by neutral site tournament games. Seems like those are relevant.

I'm not sure what happened because they used to take these into account. There is no way we're getting a 3 seed in 2011 without a lot of the Big East Tournament being considered.

Funny how much commentary about needing to win x amount of games in your tournament to pad your resume, and it turns out that it's all a joke unless you win and get the automatic bid.

 

[freescooter]

When a team like NC State steals a bid, it should come at the expense of an ACC team like Virginia, not a Big East team.

No it shows come at the expense of the next team on the bubble. Unless you want limits on number of bids to a conference.

 

[freescooter]

The Mountain West getting 5 teams?
Put those 5 against St Johns, Providence, Seton Hall, Villanova and Butler and lets see who wins... Come on!!

Big East got hosed. The teams that got snubbed all played difficult non-conference games they shouldn't be punished for that!
The likes of Butler and even DePaul had good wins out of conference which just goes to show how good the conference is.
Villanova got hosed for playing a gauntlet non conference and ran out of gas against some hungry in state teams... If they played all cupcakes they would have won all those games... Clown show this committee is.

De Paul beating Louisville doesn’t rank as a good win. And on Villanova you need to play the entire season.

 

[housekeys]

Solution:
If a team wins its conference tournament and steals a bid, then another team from that same conference gets bumped.

You can't do that. There were years were Gonzaga was one of the best 10 teams in the country but the WCC was a one-bid league.

They already do this. Indirectly or directly, USF's bid was stolen by a bid stealer from its own league. Indiana State, also. This happens ALL the time with smaller conferences. It is the power conferences that get away with this injustice.

In fact, this IS the solution to the problem. The problem is not which metric. The problem is "bid stealing". And this is the fair solution to the problem. Only issue is how one defines "bid stealer". Define that and you are closer to a better solution than what we have now.

 

[Hunt for 7]

I would like to see some video of people blasting the committee. I saw this post on the SJU site and someone claimed they never took into account injuries before. I don't know if that's true or not. Maybe I'll find Mad dog going on a rant.

This guy is a joke. I want to say so many things but they will all be cut out by the moderator. They would be right for doing so…as they would not fit our culture. But this guy is a puppet. You can almost see the strings if you look closely enough. He has no right to smile after the crime he just committed.

 

[cullaville]

When a team like NC State steals a bid, it should come at the expense of an ACC team like Virginia, not a Big East team.

Wanted St John's Seton Hall and Providence in the tournament and feel they should have been selected.

It was unfortunate for those teams that NC State and others won their conference tournaments when they were not expected to but this teams did not STEAL anything. They played the games in the format that was established for their conference tournament and WON the tournament and the automatic bid.

 

[superjohn]

This guy is a joke. I want to say so many things but they will all be cut out by the moderator. They would be right for doing so…as they would not fit our culture. But this guy is a puppet. You can almost see the strings if you look closely enough. He has no right to smile after the crime he just committed.

I'm shocked he even knew the teams they lost to and he knows who Donovan Clingan is.

 

[djct1999]

Broiled dog spit like Michigan State, A&M and Virginia are in the field but not PC, who has more high quality wins than any bubble team, or St. John’s?

The NCAA/P2 is abusing their product, and they will destroy it eventually.

The last sentence is spot on. They abused their power.

 

[upstater]

AP Poll:

1. UConn
4. Iowa St
7. Auburn
10. Illinois

I would love to know if a bracket has ever had 4 top 10 teams in it before.