Why the Big East is not doomed yet this year

[FightOnCT]

Is it true that the Boise State loss to a D2 team does not enter into the quantitative NET? In other words, it's only a qualitative data point for the selection committee to consider? Tough loss for Butler.

Yes, it won’t show up on any of the metrics-based sites but the committee will absolutely take the loss into consideration

 

[slepers]

ACC taking care of business. Will end up 10-1 today. Meanwhile, DePaul is losing to Pine Bluff.

Surely did, bcu coming back from 10 down to top New Haven!

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Update of what is left:

P4 games remaining (16-22 overall)- games I think we win in bold:

Georgetown @ North Carolina (12/7)
Creighton @ Nebraska (12/7)
Villanova @ Michigan (12/9)
UConn vs. Florida (MSG) (12/9)
UConn vs. Texas (12/12)
Marquette @ Purdue (12/13)
Creighton vs. Kansas State (12/13)
Villanova vs. Pittsburgh (12/13)
Seton Hall vs. Rutgers (12/13)
Villanova @ Wisconsin (12/19)
St. John's vs. Kentucky (Atlanta) (12/20)
Butler vs. Northwestern (12/20)

Need to go 7-5 to hit 23-27 mark.

Even 1-1 today will be a huge deal.


To me there is one more questionable game left:

DePaul @ Wichita State (12/13)

I expect a loss, but a win would be a huge plus.



Cupcake games remaining (we need to go 9-0):

Xavier vs. Missouri State (12/12)
Providence vs. Brown (12/9)
DePaul vs. Morgan State (12/9)
St. John's vs. Iona (12/13)
Georgetown vs. Saint Peter's (12/13)
Butler vs. NJIT (12/22)
Georgetown vs. Coppin State (12/22)
Creighton vs. Utah Tech (12/22)
St. John's vs. Harvard (12/23)

KenPom has the following games projected to have final margins of <=5 points:

Creighton @ Nebraska
UConn vs. Florida
Villanova at Wisconsin
St. Johns vs. Kentucky
Butler vs. Northwestern

The Big East has outperformed KenPom in its games vs. P4 in the last few weeks in terms of projected losses turning into wins, so winning 3+ of those "tossup" games is possible.

 

[shizzle787]

KenPom has the following games projected to have final margins of <=5 points:

Creighton @ Nebraska
UConn vs. Florida
Villanova at Wisconsin
St. Johns vs. Kentucky
Butler vs. Northwestern

The Big East has outperformed KenPom in its games vs. P4 in the last few weeks in terms of projected losses turning into wins, so winning 3+ of those "tossup" games is possible.

The Big East has played itself into a position where 5 bids is still a realistic possibility. The next 16 days are huge.

 

[shizzle787]

The league has done a better job this year of not losing to mid and low-majors.

Only six losses to teams outside of the P4:
@ Gonzaga
Dayton
Dayton on neutral court
Boise State
Santa Clara
Buffalo


Butler should have never scheduled Boise State, and Xavier should never have scheduled Santa Clara. I would argue DePaul should not have scheduled Wichita State or Buffalo (but there was no way to know Buffalo would arguably be the best team in the MAC based on recent history).

 

[RuffRuff]

The league has done a better job this year of not losing to mid and low-majors.

Only six losses to teams outside of the P4:
@ Gonzaga
Dayton
Dayton on neutral court
Boise State
Santa Clara
Buffalo


Butler should have never scheduled Boise State, and Xavier should never have scheduled Santa Clara. I would argue DePaul should not have scheduled Wichita State or Buffalo (but there was no way to know Buffalo would arguably be the best team in the MAC based on recent history).

Why? You don’t think teams should play better competition? That sounds like a weak way to get bids. This to get an extra bid to flame out in round one?

The way to really do it is to recruit better players and coach them up. Not playing the schedule.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The league has done a better job this year of not losing to mid and low-majors.

Only six losses to teams outside of the P4:
@ Gonzaga
Dayton
Dayton on neutral court
Boise State
Santa Clara
Buffalo


Butler should have never scheduled Boise State, and Xavier should never have scheduled Santa Clara. I would argue DePaul should not have scheduled Wichita State or Buffalo (but there was no way to know Buffalo would arguably be the best team in the MAC based on recent history).

The mid major games don’t bother me. It is a way to boost the power rankings, and they don’t kill you if you lose. Buffalo was a bad loss.

 

[shizzle787]

P4 games remaining (we are 17-25 currently)- we need to finish 23-27 or better

UConn vs. Texas (12/12)
Marquette @ Purdue (12/13)
Creighton vs. Kansas State (12/13)
Villanova vs. Pittsburgh (12/13)
Seton Hall vs. Rutgers (12/13)
Villanova @ Wisconsin (12/19)
St. John's vs. Kentucky (Atlanta) (12/20)
Butler vs. Northwestern (12/20)

The two road games I think we lose, but there is a strong case to be made that we can win the other six and achieve the goal.

Mid-major game

DePaul @ Wichita State (12/13)

Don't need to win this one, but it would be a plus if we do.

Cupcake games remaining

Xavier vs. Missouri State (12/12)
St. John's vs. Iona (12/13)
Georgetown vs. Saint Peter's (12/13)
Butler vs. NJIT (12/22)
Georgetown vs. Coppin State (12/22)
Creighton vs. Utah Tech (12/22)
St. John's vs. Harvard (12/23)

Need to go 7-0 here.

If we go 6-2 against the P4 and 7-0 against the cupcakes, we will secure 4 bids minimum barring some weird scenario like 2023.
At 87-34, that would give us a 50/50 shot of landing 5 teams.

 

[Marat]

I'm kind of sad tomorrow's Texas game will be the last of the P4 conference games until hopefully March. Anyone else with me ? These games have been really exciting. I wish they were playing these games weekly and not some of the Big East teams. I know STJ will be interesting, and probably a few away games with others will be too. Its not like the AAC days, though. I guess it will give Hurley and team plenty of time to improve towards March.

 

[RuffRuff]

I'm kind of sad tomorrow's Texas game will be the last of the P4 conference games until hopefully March. Anyone else with me ? These games have been really exciting. I wish they were playing these games weekly and not some of the Big East teams. I know STJ will be interesting, and probably a few away games with others will be too. Its not like the AAC days, though. I guess it will give Hurley and team plenty of time to improve towards March.

I'd say in most cases, yes. But I think this team right now could use a bit of a watered down schedule to start building their real chemistry and to get healthy. We can use some air.

Demary needs some less intense games to start shaping into his role. Mullins will too.

I think Hurley will get more of these on the calendar next year.

 

[Inyatkin]

I'd say in most cases, yes. But I think this team right now could use a bit of a watered down schedule to start building their real chemistry and to get healthy. We can use some air.

Demary needs some less intense games to start shaping into his role. Mullins will too.

I think Hurley will get more of these on the calendar next year.

There are some gimmes on the schedule, but going into the conference schedule thinking away games, especially, are going to be a low-stress environment is crazy-making. A down Big East is not exactly the NEC

 

[RuffRuff]

There are some gimmes on the schedule, but going into the conference schedule thinking away games, especially, are going to be a low-stress environment is crazy-making. A down Big East is not exactly the NEC

That first month (6 games) looks pretty light to me. DePaul twice, maybe @PC will be a challenge, but they're really bad this year. @ Xavier is a game we should win as well.

It's not the NEC, but these are KenPom 100+ teams. Butler at home we should take care of. Then comes at Seton Hall, which for whatever reason has always been a problem. I realize we'll be each one of these teams Super Bowls, but there is a severe quality gap with the exception of a couple teams.