Why don’t we find some midrange shots

[JonnyRI]

Shot chart from today:
View attachment 72002
Are you sure arguing for more threes is really the super genius position you think it is?

Strictly from an analytical standpoint, that is actually a good looking shot chart.

Everything basically either a three or in the paint.

 

[UConnSwag11]

With guys struggling to score, you’d think we’d try to run some stuff to get open looks from 13-17 feet.

Get some of the shooters feeling it early.

Everything is either at the rim/paint or beyond the arc.

Shots at the rim are contested and shots beyond the arc we can’t hit right in an empty gym.

Watch for our (lack of) midrange game tonight.

Maybe this will be a positive jinx.

When Sanogo isn’t in the game we have five players playing beyond the three point line. We have no inside threat. That needs to change, if it can. Otherwise we’re a transition only team.

But I agree with the midrange jumpers. I’d like to see some pick and pops. Seems like the only people who have shown who can hit a mid range jumper are Cole, Hawkins, Martin, Whaley. Possibly Sanogo but hasn’t taken many

 

[UConnSwag11]

Whaley passed from inside the arc, twice, in the same possession. Not sure why he doesn’t have a little jump hook yet.

Or anything offensively. His defense is very very good overall

 

[CL82]

Strictly from an analytical standpoint, that is actually a good looking shot chart.

Everything basically either a three or in the paint.

Yep, until you look at the miss/made numbers. Then you see that the distribution is not efficient.

 

[JustbrewitMan]

I don’t know if anyone watched the Villanova-Xavier game last night, but there’s a whole lot of suckage going on from behind the arc for many teams lately.

Xavier shot 6-23, including something like 0-15 in the 2nd half. Villanova shot 6-21. And that was a good shooting night for Villanova compared to their previous couple of games.

I guess my point is even “great” shooting teams can have multiple game stretches where they are bad shooting teams.

I expect at some point (hopefully soon of course!) Polley, Hawkins, and RJ are going to work out of their collective funks.

In the meantime, I really wish Jackson & Whaley would shoot more 3s. And more close range dunks, please.

 

[JonnyRI]

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Yep, until you look at the miss/made numbers. Then you see that the distribution is not efficient.

to a degree. 30 percent from 3 equals 45 percent from two (vs the 50 percent from 2 we actually shot) but yea, I know you get foul shots more often from two.

If we can consistently hit 50 percent plus from 2, or if we actually aren’t a 38 percent 3 shooting team but actually are more like a 29 percent one, we need to get more shots in the paint and at the rim. Right now at least, that would seem to the the smart thing to do.

 

[methodology]

Some dork will chime in with analytics of why it's a bad shot to take and totally miss the point that made shots are better than missed shots.

That’s when you hit them with the Lemarcus Aldridge quote

“In this day and age, the mid-range is considered a bad shot, I guess. But I got 19,000 some-odd points off the mid-range so you tell me it’s a bad shot, I don’t believe you,” said Aldridge on his specialty. “We understand teams are going to give up certain things and my mid-range was one of those things tonight. It won’t be every night but it was tonight against Philly.”

 

[wheelerdog]

They all watch the NBA and there are only 2 shots in the NBA.

A dunk or 3-pointer.

100%

 

[husky429]

Post/ handle

When you’re hitting 50% from two and 30% from three, “analytics” favor the two.

RJ: 45% from 2 (45% efg), 32% form three (48% efg)... 45% of his shots are 3s.--favors the 3.

Tyrese: 58% from 2 (58%), 36% from 3 (54%), 26% of his shots are 3s.--favors the 2.

Andre: 51% from 2 (51%), 44% from 3 (66%), 24% of his shots are 3s.--favors the 3.

Akok: 45% from 2, 56% from 3 (85% efg), 37% of shots are 3s-- favors the 3.

Whaley: 56% from 2, 31% from 3 (46% efg), 24% of shots from 3--favors the 2.

Gaff: 38% from 2, 35% from 3 (53% efg), 42% of shots from 3--favors the 3.

Polley: 46% from 2, 30% from 3 (45%), 72% of shots from 3--favors the 2

Hawkins: 37% from 2, 33% from 3 (49% efg), 46% of shots from 3--favors the 3

TEAM: 49% from 2 (49% efg), 34% 3 FG (51% efg), 35% of our shots are from deep.

So... as a team, we are actually making a slightly better % effectively. Analytics DON'T actually favor the 2 point shot as you claim, but only slightly. You really should look up these numbers before unequivocally stating the numbers favor 2 point shots.

I think the balance we're striking is about right though. About 1/3 shots we're taking are 3s. Considering we are (disappointingly) unwilling to run in transition again at the rates we need to, this seems about right. Currently, we're 227 in pace. Considering the supposed emphasis on running... this isn't a good sign that coach is putting his money where his mouth is.

This doesn't account for the potential to draw fouls at all. The guys who are better shooters are generally gettinghigher volume (outside of the probable outliers like Jackson.) If anything we should be seeing a few more 3s from Rese, but he's so solid drawing fouls, it probably evens out... and obviously less volume from Polley at this point... he's a disaster.

We're cutting Polley's minutes in half, and a slight regression to the mean shooting it away from being a team that strongly, strongly favors the 3 point shot.

Don't worry @UConnStats , I've got your back, lol.

 

[husky429]

That’s when you hit them with the Lemarcus Aldridge quote

“In this day and age, the mid-range is considered a bad shot, I guess. But I got 19,000 some-odd points off the mid-range so you tell me it’s a bad shot, I don’t believe you,” said Aldridge on his specialty. “We understand teams are going to give up certain things and my mid-range was one of those things tonight. It won’t be every night but it was tonight against Philly.”

And he would've had 23,000 if he learned to shoot the 3 better.

 

[methodology]

And he would've had 23,000 if he learned to shoot the 3 better.

And Mariano Rivera would have had 300 wins as a starter if he learned to have more stamina

If you are effective/elite at certain things you don’t cut off your nose to spite your face. Analytics arent the end all be all

 

[husky429]

And Mariano Rivera would have had 300 wins as a starter if he learned to have more stamina

If you are effective/elite at certain things you don’t cut off your nose to spite your face. Analytics arent the end all be all

No one said "don't take mid-range shots"... the mid-range shot that Whaley took at the end of the game was great. It came within the flow of a Pick n Roll if I remember correctly.

The idea is that we shouldn't draw up plays to FIND a mid-range shot when a 3 or a layup is so much more effecient... it's just a secondary option.

If they close out hard on a shooter, a 1 dribble pull-up is fair game if the rim is covered. If in a pick n roll, a mid-range shooter like Whaley can't get to the rim, a short corner jumper is fair. Etc.

Most college coaches aren't saying "never take a mid-range" they're just drawing up plays to prioritize other shots.

Every one of you old farts furiously masturbating at pictures of mid-range jumpers seem to think that we're all saying NEVER take them, and that's simply not the case. It's a huge strawman.

 

[Puertorock43]

Whaley passed from inside the arc, twice, in the same possession. Not sure why he doesn’t have a little jump hook yet.

Not sure why passed on those 2 shots. His willing to take wide open 3s but not a jump shot in the paint?

 

[Chin Diesel]

Some dork will chime in with analytics of why it's a bad shot to take and totally miss the point that made shots are better than missed shots.

Ah yes, our offense is bad so let’s scheme to get more of the lowest percentage look in basketball. Everyone knows that teams like Baylor, Villanova and Gonzaga rely on the mid range to open up their offense.

Like moths to a flame.

 

[Stinger92860]

Post/ handle

When you’re hitting 50% from two and 30% from three, “analytics” favor the two.

the math makes it closer than you may think. 6 of 20 is 18 points on those 20 shots. That said I believe we shot over 60% from two. It’s likely we won’t improve over 60%, so we need to knock down 1 or 2+ more threes. It changes the game for us. If Polley hits his threes he plays, if not he has to sit. I’d like to see Akok get more shots over the course of the game, if he can be consistent in knocking those down. Hawk is a freshman, you expect ups and downs.

 

[methodology]

No one said "don't take mid-range shots"... the mid-range shot that Whaley took at the end of the game was great. It came within the flow of a Pick n Roll if I remember correctly.

The idea is that we shouldn't draw up plays to FIND a mid-range shot when a 3 or a layup is so much more effecient... it's just a secondary option.

If they close out hard on a shooter, a 1 dribble pull-up is fair game if the rim is covered. If in a pick n roll, a mid-range shooter like Whaley can't get to the rim, a short corner jumper is fair. Etc.

Most college coaches aren't saying "never take a mid-range" they're just drawing up plays to prioritize other shots.

Every one of you old farts furiously masturbating at pictures of mid-range jumpers seem to think that we're all saying NEVER take them, and that's simply not the case. It's a huge strawman.

And you’re doing the same exact thing you’re accusing me and the others of doing. We aren’t saying to draw up only mid range shots and not shoot 3s. You take the best percentage shot in the flow of the offense and sometimes that’s the mid range

Was Rip and the pistons dumb?

Never-still Rip Hamilton was deadly from two-point range for Detroit

Coming off screens and knocking down mid-range jumpers like it was his day job. Scratch that, it was his day job. I’m talking about Richard Hamilton, perhaps better known by his moniker of “Rip.” Recently, Hamilton told the Detroit Free Press that he thinks the Pistons of his era should have won...

www.vintagedetroit.com

During the Pistons’ six-season stretch of ECF appearances, the University of Connecticut product made 47.5 percent of his two-point shots while also shooting 46.3 percent from the field.

Secondly, Pistons fans will never forget the dynamic duo that he formed with fellow Pistons backcourt mate Chauncey Billups.

To no surprise, the three seasons when Rip proved to be the most efficient from two-point range (from 2005-06 until ‘07-08 when he shot no worse than 48.3 percent on his mid-range shots), his backcourt partner Billups put together the three finest seasons of his NBA career as a facilitator.

Rip Hamilton On MJ Teaching Him The Mid-Range Game: "That's The Hardest Play In The Game Of Basketball To Guard." | Fadeaway World

“That was a kid getting the opportunity to play with the GOAT, the guy you looked up to as a kid. One that sticks out for me is playing against him in practice. People look at my mid-range game and say I have one of the best of all time, but a lot of that came off of being in the practices with MJ. I remember one time I was playing against him and he took two hard dribbles to the basket and pulled up and he was like ‘Rip, add that to your game.’ That’s the hardest play in the game of basketball to guard. And I was like, why? And he was like, because as a defender they are backpedaling so he can’t jump to the highest point to block your shot. He’s always off-balance and you’re always on-balance. People all across the league kept hitting me up like, ‘How did you get your medium-range game so good?’ From the tools of Michael Jordan. From the opportunity to be around him for the two years I was in Washington.”

 

[husky429]

And you’re doing the same exact thing you’re accusing me and the others of doing. We aren’t saying to draw up only mid range shots and not shoot 3s. You take the best percentage shot in the flow of the offense and sometimes that’s the mid range

Was Rip and the pistons dumb?

Never-still Rip Hamilton was deadly from two-point range for Detroit

Coming off screens and knocking down mid-range jumpers like it was his day job. Scratch that, it was his day job. I’m talking about Richard Hamilton, perhaps better known by his moniker of “Rip.” Recently, Hamilton told the Detroit Free Press that he thinks the Pistons of his era should have won...

www.vintagedetroit.com

During the Pistons’ six-season stretch of ECF appearances, the University of Connecticut product made 47.5 percent of his two-point shots while also shooting 46.3 percent from the field.

Secondly, Pistons fans will never forget the dynamic duo that he formed with fellow Pistons backcourt mate Chauncey Billups.

To no surprise, the three seasons when Rip proved to be the most efficient from two-point range (from 2005-06 until ‘07-08 when he shot no worse than 48.3 percent on his mid-range shots), his backcourt partner Billups put together the three finest seasons of his NBA career as a facilitator.

Rip Hamilton On MJ Teaching Him The Mid-Range Game: "That's The Hardest Play In The Game Of Basketball To Guard." | Fadeaway World

“That was a kid getting the opportunity to play with the GOAT, the guy you looked up to as a kid. One that sticks out for me is playing against him in practice. People look at my mid-range game and say I have one of the best of all time, but a lot of that came off of being in the practices with MJ. I remember one time I was playing against him and he took two hard dribbles to the basket and pulled up and he was like ‘Rip, add that to your game.’ That’s the hardest play in the game of basketball to guard. And I was like, why? And he was like, because as a defender they are backpedaling so he can’t jump to the highest point to block your shot. He’s always off-balance and you’re always on-balance. People all across the league kept hitting me up like, ‘How did you get your medium-range game so good?’ From the tools of Michael Jordan. From the opportunity to be around him for the two years I was in Washington.”

Rip shot an efg% of 52% from 3 for his career and 46% from 2 (including layups). So, if you want to get real technical about it... he probably should have prioritized the 3 more.

I suspect we're probably not as far apart in our vision of playstyle as we think when it comes down to it.

 

[methodology]

Rip shot an efg% of 52% from 3 for his career and 46% from 2 (including layups). So, if you want to get real technical about it... he probably should have prioritized the 3 more.

I suspect we're probably not as far apart in our vision of playstyle as we think when it comes down to it.

You’re not accounting for volume but we probably are very similar in what we want to see happen

 

[Chin Diesel]

Whaley passed from inside the arc, twice, in the same possession. Not sure why he doesn’t have a little jump hook yet.

yes, and I was borderline screaming at the TV for him to shoot it. But, he did have a nice 15' from the baseline in the second half.

 

[freshler40]

Whaley passed from inside the arc, twice, in the same possession. Not sure why he doesn’t have a little jump hook yet.

Whaley's passing on the two close-in shots was concerning. We seem to want a more difficult shot for an easy one???? At least he might have been fouled or Euro stepped for two. How much more open do you need to be??? Perhaps the coach has a tight collar on him. It seems that we do pass on a lot of open shots. The first half had a nice offensive flow to it, the second reverted to half-court run down the clock for a desperation shot that allowed the game to get close.

 

[freshler40]

Whaley passed from inside the arc, twice, in the same possession. Not sure why he doesn’t have a little jump hook yet.

Whaley's passing on the two close-in shots was concerning. We seem to want a more difficult shot for an easy one???? At least he might have been fouled or Euro stepped for two. How much more open do you need to be??? Perhaps the coach has a tight collar on him. It seems that we do pass on a lot of open shots. The first half had a nice offensive flow to it, the second reverted to half-court run down the clock for a desperation shot that allowed the game to get close.

 

[Chin Diesel]

Our current roster isn't built like modern NBA or top college teams. It's built like an old school Big East team.

And this is a very fair criticism on building the roster. UConn doesn't have shooters. Polley's regression, Hawkins freshmen jitters, Gaffney's inability to stay on the floor have all hurt with shooting and putting a team on the floor that can go 4 out or 5 out.

 

[CL82]

RJ: 45% from 2 (45% efg), 32% form three (48% efg)... 45% of his shots are 3s.--favors the 3.

Tyrese: 58% from 2 (58%), 36% from 3 (54%), 26% of his shots are 3s.--favors the 2.

Andre: 51% from 2 (51%), 44% from 3 (66%), 24% of his shots are 3s.--favors the 3.

Akok: 45% from 2, 56% from 3 (85% efg), 37% of shots are 3s-- favors the 3.

Whaley: 56% from 2, 31% from 3 (46% efg), 24% of shots from 3--favors the 2.

Gaff: 38% from 2, 35% from 3 (53% efg), 42% of shots from 3--favors the 3.

Polley: 46% from 2, 30% from 3 (45%), 72% of shots from 3--favors the 2

Hawkins: 37% from 2, 33% from 3 (49% efg), 46% of shots from 3--favors the 3

TEAM: 49% from 2 (49% efg), 34% 3 FG (51% efg), 35% of our shots are from deep.

So... as a team, we are actually making a slightly better % effectively. Analytics DON'T actually favor the 2 point shot as you claim, but only slightly. You really should look up these numbers before unequivocally stating the numbers favor 2 point shots.

I think the balance we're striking is about right though. About 1/3 shots we're taking are 3s. Considering we are (disappointingly) unwilling to run in transition again at the rates we need to, this seems about right. Currently, we're 227 in pace. Considering the supposed emphasis on running... this isn't a good sign that coach is putting his money where his mouth is.

This doesn't account for the potential to draw fouls at all. The guys who are better shooters are generally gettinghigher volume (outside of the probable outliers like Jackson.) If anything we should be seeing a few more 3s from Rese, but he's so solid drawing fouls, it probably evens out... and obviously less volume from Polley at this point... he's a disaster.

We're cutting Polley's minutes in half, and a slight regression to the mean shooting it away from being a team that strongly, strongly favors the 3 point shot.

Don't worry @UConnStats , I've got your back, lol.

Outstanding post! When people talk about analytics favoring the three what they’re really talking about is the combination of point value and accuracy, but, as I know you know, there is much more to an analytical analysis than that. Credible three point shooting opens up the paint which allows that to be a higher percentage shot. Forcing people to guard you out to the arc opens up opportunities for a player to drive by his man. A big problem for AJ last year was his lack of a credible three point shot which allowed defenders to sag off of him, which interned took away his ability to drive to the basket. There’s a ying and the yang to it.

Anyway, reread my post and realize that it’s accurate. Last night we shot 30% from three and 50% from two. At those percentages the three pointer isn’t a better shot. I’m guessing that you are using season to date figures to come up with the 34%. At 34% vs 49% the three-point shot is more efficient. But giving you understand how to do this analysis, I’m guessing that you already know that. So, you’re trying to call me out by changing the numbers were talking about is a little disingenuous. You’re better than that. That said, excellent post with really interesting information.

 

[Umami Zen]

Would like to see this team increase %'s made at all levels--Even at a modest rate. Theory(which shot is the better shot) vs reality (roster construction-personnel) seems to be the issue. FTs will win some games for us this year because our D will keep us in games.

FWIW. DH has yet to say to our shooters-Stop taking threes. So it appears to me that the staff is willing to roll the dice on 20+ 3 pt shot attempts/game (my guess-not fact) and let the results be what they are.

I still believe this roster has unrealized potential (due to its speed/athleticism) to run more and create offense off of their defensive talents. AJ is beginning to show signs of being a major disruptor/contributor in this scheme. Takes some of the pressure off of our shooters when they don't have their A game.

 

[CL82]

the math makes it closer than you may think. 6 of 20 is 18 points on those 20 shots. That said I believe we shot over 60% from two. It’s likely we won’t improve over 60%, so we need to knock down 1 or 2+ more threes. It changes the game for us. If Polley hits his threes he plays, if not he has to sit. I’d like to see Akok get more shots over the course of the game, if he can be consistent in knocking those down. Hawk is a freshman, you expect ups and downs.

Yep. look at it this way, in last nights game over 20 shots the percentages we were shooting two point shots would have yielded two more points then three-point shots. That’s not a huge difference, but the point stands that people who hammer the phrase “analytics“ as a basis for the three-point shot always being a better alternative than a two point shot don’t really understand what analytics are. Shooting three-pointers are more efficient, as long as you can shoot them at some reasonable rate. 30% or less isn’t reasonable.