Whos Best in the WNBA

[Wbbfan1]

Full Court - Link

Not sure if I agree with the stat, as obviously a player on the best team in the league will usually have the best plus/minus stat.

 

[OneTrickPony]

Not scientific...but intuitively satisfying...ahhhhhhh!

 

[VAMike23]

I think the best statement in his write-up is the notion that it's a better statistic over a whole season (at least) but sometimes not that meaningful game to game. (We hav all seen some very strange looking +/- figures in individual games considering the other stats by the player in that game.)

In this light, it makes more sense that Maya would be at the highest level. There have been *tons* of times where I'm watching a Lynx game and you see Reeve rushing Maya back to the scorer's table because bad things are starting to happen. Most of the time when she gets back in, good things start to happen. Over time, the +/- seems to bear this out.

 

[MilfordHusky]

It is not surprising that the player who has a record of something like 400 wins and 20 losses over the last 10 years is atop that list.

 

[EricLA]

I actually thought it was pretty interesting - i know it's been discussed more in recent years as it's a more recent statistic. But even if you knew nothing about Clay Callum, you have to love this line...

Candace Parker? Minus 7.1, thanks in great part to a questionable contribution on defense, and though Kristi Toliver is no great shakes at the defensive end, the offense is much more effective when she’s in the game.

Tolliver's defense is something numerous BY'ers have mentioned in the past, and watching Parker for most of the Olympics showed why he said what he did (I don't see many WNBA games where she's playing). It continues to surprise me that WNBA.com still has Parker listed 2nd in the "race for the MVP". Her offensive numbers are no better than 8th in the league, and given her questionable defense (exposed even more based on her +/- stats), I'd put McCaughtry, Moore, Catchings, and Pondexter at the very least (along with Charles) ahead of her.

Defense is all about effort and will and desire. It's pretty obvious when you compare a player like Catchings, Moore or McCaughtry with Parker - you see the big differences in how they approach the defensive side of the game.

 

[CamrnCrz1974]

Full Court - Link

Not sure if I agree with the stat, as obviously a player on the best team in the league will usually have the best plus/minus stat.

Not necessarily. If the best team in the league has the best point differential, then it would. If the best team were to win all of its games in really tight contests, then it would not.

Putting that aside, the stat is interesting, but not dispositive as to the "best player" argument. Anderson Verajao, for example, had the highest plus/minus number in the NBA in 2009-2010, as he played with LeBron James. Also, if a player plays a ton of minutes, even in blowout contests, the numbers could be skewed (e.g., a team ahead by a lot may not defend as much toward the end of the game, allowing the opposition to score and allowing plus/minus numbers for all players involved to be skewed).

I do like Clay Kallam's work, in part because he always has a strong point of view, but also because his pieces are well researched. Most importantly, however, if you know Clay personally (as I do), he is always willing to listen to another person's point of view or evidence, consider that, and (at times) even change his analysis.

That being said, I personally think plus/minus is most interesting when paired with point differential numbers when said player is on the floor (on a per-minute basis), as well as the plus/minus for various lineups. For example, if Candace Parker plays most of her minutes with Kristi Toliver, the plus/minus numbers will be skewed. Keep in mind that Toliver is defending perimeter players, who are more likely to shoot (and make) three-point baskets, thereby adding to the plus/minus figure and point differential. If, for example, Parker is paired with Beard, DMJ, Nneka, and another guard, and her plus/minus figure is significantly greater, it certainly changes the analysis.

Another factor to consider is *how* the offense scores when players are in the game. Because Parker has such range on her shot, it frees up Nneka to score more inside and allows Alana Beard to drive from the wing (often the left side), as there is no crowding of the paint. When Parker is in the paint, it frees up players like Toliver to launch from three, because she demands so much attention.

But all in all, it is an interesting read...and offers one such statistic (though not a dispositive one) in determining the "best player" or the "most important" player.

 

[CamrnCrz1974]

Defense is all about effort and will and desire. It's pretty obvious when you compare a player like Catchings, Moore or McCaughtry with Parker - you see the big differences in how they approach the defensive side of the game.

Not entirely (side note...am I going to be the designated contrarian in this thread? LOL).

Anyone who carefully follows the NBA will tell you that Steve Nash is an average defender on his best day and, is more often than not, a "less than adequate" defender. But it has nothing to do with "effort," "will," or "desire." Nash tries on the defensive end; he simply lacks the lateral quickness to keep up with today's more explosive point guards. And while Nash is a very, very good athlete, he is simply quicker moving forward than side-to-side. But his offensive contributions (multiple years of 50/40/90 shooting percentages and 10+ assists per game) and his ability to make EVERYONE around him that much better is why he has been such a successful player, an All Star, a two-time MVP, and a future Hall of Famer.

 

[OneTrickPony]

With respect to Maya, at least, this statistic demonstrates what we all have seen...she doesn't take plays off and she's always hustling...

 

[CamrnCrz1974]

With respect to Maya, at least, this statistic demonstrates what we all have seen...she doesn't take plays off and she's always hustling...

But you did not need the statistic to tell you that.

 

[EricLA]

Not entirely (side note...am I going to be the designated contrarian in this thread? LOL).

Anyone who carefully follows the NBA will tell you that Steve Nash is an average defender on his best day and, is more often than not, a "less than adequate" defender. But it has nothing to do with "effort," "will," or "desire." Nash tries on the defensive end; he simply lacks the lateral quickness to keep up with today's more explosive point guards. And while Nash is a very, very good athlete, he is simply quicker moving forward than side-to-side. But his offensive contributions (multiple years of 50/40/90 shooting percentages and 10+ assists per game) and his ability to make EVERYONE around him that much better is why he has been such a successful player, an All Star, a two-time MVP, and a future Hall of Famer.

fair points. i probably should have been more clear in what i was saying. A player like Bales is going to have nowhere near the quickness of a player like Fowles or Charles. IMHO Parker's lack of defensive prowess has less to do with her athleticism or capabilities and more to do with effort. Clearly your point is well taken and athletes/speed demons are more capable defenders on paper than their less "fleet of foot" counterparts...

 

[OneTrickPony]

But you did not need the statistic to tell you that.

Not in the slightest...

 

[Wbbfan1]

Cam:

I did use the word Usually in my statement vs the word Always.

My point was I would be shocked if a player from Tulsa, Washington or your Phoenix team would lead the league in the plus/minus stat. They don't have the supporting cast that Maya has.

I wasn't surprised that Maya lead the league as she is one of Minn's top scorers and Minn is the top offensive team in the WNBA. Minn is also the 3rd best defensive team behind Indiana and Seattle. Minn leads the league in point scoring differential at 11 points per game and the Sparks are next at 5.45 points per game. This year, it makes sense for the leader in the Plus/Minus category would be a player on Minn.

Maya is a great player, but I'm not sure I would use the plus/minus stat to imply or say she is the best player in the WNBA.

 

[CamrnCrz1974]

Cam:

I did use the word Usually in my statement vs the word Always.

My point was I would be shocked if a player from Tulsa, Washington or your Phoenix team would lead the league in the plus/minus stat. They don't have the supporting cast that Maya has.

No, but consider this...a player on Tulsa, Washington, or Phoenix, for example, could be on the floor during blowouts where they are scoring against the opposing team's bench players. Not necessarily to the lead the league, but be skewed a certain way.

Maya is a great player, but I'm not sure I would use the plus/minus stat to imply or say she is the best player in the WNBA.

I agree. I think the stat is one that supports the argument, but not single statistic is truly dispositive of the "best player" debate.

 

[TheTruthBelow]

That being said, I personally think plus/minus is most interesting when paired with point differential numbers when said player is on the floor (on a per-minute basis), as well as the plus/minus for various lineups. For example, if Candace Parker plays most of her minutes with Kristi Toliver, the plus/minus numbers will be skewed. Keep in mind that Toliver is defending perimeter players, who are more likely to shoot (and make) three-point baskets, thereby adding to the plus/minus figure and point differential. If, for example, Parker is paired with Beard, DMJ, Nneka, and another guard, and her plus/minus figure is significantly greater, it certainly changes the analysis.

Another factor to consider is *how* the offense scores when players are in the game. Because Parker has such range on her shot, it frees up Nneka to score more inside and allows Alana Beard to drive from the wing (often the left side), as there is no crowding of the paint. When Parker is in the paint, it frees up players like Toliver to launch from three, because she demands so much attention.

Except that LA is second-best in the league at defending the 3-point line, and that the team is actually better offensively technically speaking with Parker off the court. In reality, that's of course not the case, but no one is leaving Toliver open to double anyone. In fact, she's almost always being doubled on pick and roll plays. And that "room" Candace creates for Nneka and Beard by floating on the perimeter has unfortunately resulted in a lot of clankers from her.

As an aside, note the number for Monty: -9.6, lowest on the Sun. Remember when people thought she was better than Toliver?

 

[UcMiami]

As various people have noted, the team plus/minus (eg the margin of victory) messes up this stat considerably. A player who played every minute for a team that scored exactly the same number of points as they gave up would have a +/- of zero, whereas a player for MN this year in the same situation would have a +11. And that is regardless of the players personal 'effectiveness'.
Maya, who plays maybe 30 minutes a game (to lazy to check stats) would be expected to have a +/- of 3/4 of the Lynx number were she just 'average' or something like +8. The fact that she is +17.2 shows she is not 'average' but probably overstates her impact compared to say Prince at +14.4 on a sub .500 team or Diana at +6.1 on a lottery team. The small sample size for Diana given her injuries is also misleading.
I think the more interesting numbers are the comparisons within a team for major minutes players as you are getting pretty close to effectiveness in the same environment.
I do think there are some serious surprises though when you look at some of the numbers - CP3 being one of them. Some of that may have to do with her being played somewhat out of position on that team.

 

[TheTruthBelow]

My point was I would be shocked if a player from Tulsa, Washington or your Phoenix team would lead the league in the plus/minus stat. They don't have the supporting cast that Maya has.

That actually doesn't matter. It's how the team performs with a player on and off the court. So for example, assume the team is outscored 30-25 in 20 minutes with Player A on the court, but with Player A off the court the team is outscored 37-23 in 20 minutes. Player A's net plus/minus would be +9 and extrapolated to 40 minutes +18. Someone like Sue Bird, who is 4th on a team that is 14-18, could very well lead the league in plus/minus on a team like Washington or Phoenix. Particularly Washington, who has some offensive options but no point guard to speak of.

 

[TheTruthBelow]

In case this isn't being made clear, this is NET plus/minus, not RAW plus/minus. Glory Johnson and Crystal Langhorne -- two great players on bad teams -- have excellent net plus-minuses despite having negative raw plus-minuses.

Maya has an excellent raw plus/minus because she's part of arguably the greatest WNBA team ever, but she has an excellent net plus/minus because her team performs far better with her on the court than off.