Who will be Geno’s starting point guard in the NCAA tournament?

[Alydar]

You repeatedly stated Muhl will not start, due to her not being one of the five best. I repeatedly claim and am convinced that Muhl will start, based on historical evidence of starting the five Auriemma trusts most to start the game with fewest mistakes/best decisions.

If you are similarly convinced of your claim Muhl does not start based on your rationale, then the the make up of the rest of the starting line up does not matter.

Admittedly, I was originally betting that Muhl would be the starting PG, but in the course of this thread I see where this runs into a problem of interpretation and measurement. I interpret PG to mean the one who starts the Point of attack, not Assists leader (that Jokic fella certainly was not a PG). Bringing the ball up from an uncontested entry pass to start the offense would be a measure of this, but I see in this thread (and private communication), where others would not accept this interpretation or measurement.

So no other complicated conditions attached. Either Muhl starts in the NCAA tournament, if uninjured, or she does not, regardless of other metrics/conditions. Bet?

Btw, I generally enjoy your posts, have a similarly high opinion of Bueckers (perhaps higher, if one considers the type of adulation Jokic gets for not being a PG), and would enjoy meeting you. But even reasonable people can disagree. ;-)

Who is Jokic? If it's NBA I don't watch so your analogy is wasted on me.

I agree that there are grey areas in the wager. My point was never that Muhl wouldn't start. I got into this by saying that Geno would not start three guards in 2024 despite having done so in the past. My reasons are spelled out on several posts and I'm not going to restate them here. The bottom line is that if Geno starts 2 guards then they are Bueckers and Fudd. Plus, I always prefaced my predictions based on everyone being healthy and at 100%. The reality is likely to be different from that. You therefore have a huge built-in advantage in that injuries only increase the odds of Muhl starting. So what I will bet on is that those three players will not all start in either UConn's first regular season or in the first NCAA game. There are just too many other factors that can change things.

 

[Alydar]

I think everybody knows that I am a Nika fan, and have been since before she set foot on campus. Watching some of her videos intrigued me, but one interview she was asked about Paige also being recruited. I believe Nika said that she never saw her play but heard that she was very good. Her take was that she could play with her, and they could make each other better. Well, this is the year when that comment comes to fruition, because they will start together, and they will complement each other and help each other achieve greatness for the team and each other. Nika has never claimed to be what she is not, but she has displayed greatness in the attributes that she has brought to the team. (Tough defense, enthusiasm, and of course, setting up her teammates for success). She is a warrior that won't quit, and she is the one who will keep everybody focused to finish the job that her and Paige started. A National Championship. Paige and Nika will run the team together, and they know each other well enough now to ensure that they will win big together.

Has UConn never had a great senior who came off the bench? I agree with everything you say about her but the fact remains that Bueckers and Fudd alone will out-produce any three guards Geno has started in recent history, including the Williams Westbrook era. These two can both arguably be No 1 draft picks.
Without talking positions there are certain skills that a team needs and a lot of them are best performed by bigger and stronger players. Another skill is scoring and it applies to all positions.
Given those things I strongly feel that Geno will fill the 2 open starting positions with front court players. The two guards who will start will give him that freedom. And he has some great candidates. I think he will pick two from Griffin, Ducharme & Brady. Those three all give the guards great targets for their deft passes. And UConn can dominate the paint from the opening tip. Early in games shots don't fall and that's when rebounding becomes extra important. The 2022 championship game was lost in the 1st 10 minutes due to a lack of paint presence.

Nothing in this post is disrespectful to Muhl but rather is what I think is the best starting five. In big games it allows Geno to have two of his best guards on the floor for the entire game. When you start all three then you have to sub in for them and in a big game that may mean an inexperienced freshman. In fact if you design your offense for three guards then you better have 5 of them because the three are sharing 120 min and unless youy want all three playing 30/game all season then you will have sub in freshmen while players like Brady, Ducharme and Griffin share 50 minutes between them, the 40 of the 5th position and 10 from Edwards' minutes. Is that really what Geno will want?

 

[Skeets]

Who is Jokic? If it's NBA I don't watch so your analogy is wasted on me.

I agree that there are grey areas in the wager. My point was never that Muhl wouldn't start. I got into this by saying that Geno would not start three guards in 2024 despite having done so in the past. My reasons are spelled out on several posts and I'm not going to restate them here. The bottom line is that if Geno starts 2 guards then they are Bueckers and Fudd. Plus, I always prefaced my predictions based on everyone being healthy and at 100%. The reality is likely to be different from that. You therefore have a huge built-in advantage in that injuries only increase the odds of Muhl starting. So what I will bet on is that those three players will not all start in either UConn's first regular season or in the first NCAA game. There are just too many other factors that can change things.

Wow, sounds like you are willing to put your money pizza where you mouth is. LOL, I like it.

 

[Bone Dog]

In fact if you design your offense for three guards then you better have 5 of them because the three are sharing 120 min and unless youy want all three playing 30/game all season then you will have sub in freshmen while players like Brady, Ducharme and Griffin share 50 minutes between them, the 40 of the 5th position and 10 from Edwards' minutes. Is that really what Geno will want?

We have arrived where we all feared: a minutes thread.

 

[Alydar]

We have arrived where we all feared: a minutes thread.

Well, it becomes a problem when you start 3 guards.

 

[hoophuskee]

I admit that Muhl is a great passer. But with Bueckers and Fudd UConn already has two great passers in the starting lineup while there is only one front court player and the candidates for starting include several front court players who will diversify UConn's starting team more than a third excellent passer. I expect that Bueckers, Fudd and Muhl will share the guard minutes. But only two at a time under normal circumstances.

No. You (UCONN) are trying to press another a team. So we as posters have to stop thinking in trying to match up with the other team if we are calling ourseves a pressing team. .
Secondly, you play to your strongest advantages if you can - not to try to match up with another team's advantages. Not when you have the extremeadvantages UCONN has with Nika/Paige/Azzi .

So you start Nika/Paige/Azzi and stop worrying about how to match up with the other team instead force them to match up to you. In part that is why you press. You look to take advantage of teams that can't match up with your pace. That's why in part "diversify" is irrelevant.

Why would you want to play slower when you can domainte at the 1-3 spots? With 3 terrific passing guards you pace will be at its fastest regardless for example how fast Aubrey is. In terms offensive pace Aubrey is only a fast runner. So with that said. the starting lineup in the beginning I expect to be Nika/Azzi/Paige if healthy. The 3rd extra passer will force the bigger teams to try to play smaller or suffer the onslaught of Paige and Azzi receiving passes from a terrfic passer. Again the main object is to score the most points. Not worry as much about rebounding and diversify when you have a tremendous trio combo.

 

[Alydar]

No. You (UCONN) are trying to press another a team. So we as posters have to stop thinking in trying to match up with the other team if we are calling ourseves a pressing team. .
Secondly, you play to your strongest advantages if you can - not to try to match up with another team's advantages. Not when you have the extremeadvantages UCONN has with Nika/Paige/Azzi .

So you start Nika/Paige/Azzi and stop worrying about how to match up with the other team instead force them to match up to you. In part that is why you press. You look to take advantage of teams that can't match up with your pace. That's why in part "diversify" is irrelevant.

Why would you want to play slower when you can domainte at the 1-3 spots. With 3 terrific passing guards you pace will be at its fastest regardless for example how fast Aubrey is. In terms offensive pace Aubrey is only a fast runner. So with that said. the starting lineup in the beginning I expect to be Nika/Azzi/Paige if healthy. The 3rd extra passer will force the bigger teams to try to play smaller or suffer the onslaught of Paige and Azzi receiving passes from a terrfic passer. Again the main object is to score the most points. Not worry as much about rebounding and diversify when you have a tremendous trio combo.

Somehow I have a hard time imagining Geno starting a game with a pressing lineup. I agree that UConn will be trying to play more uptempo to take advantage of their depth, but that is a specialty team, not what you start against Stanford or SCar.

Griffin is the fastest player on the team according to Geno, and Bueckers is second fastest. Geno can put a very fast team on the floor with only two guards.

 

[Bone Dog]

Somehow I have a hard time imagining Geno starting a game with a pressing lineup. I agree that UConn will be trying to play more uptempo to take advantage of their depth, but that is a specialty team, not what you start against Stanford or SCar.

Griffin is the fastest player on the team according to Geno, and Bueckers is second fastest. Geno can put a very fast team on the floor with only two guards.

You don’t have to imagine. Just watch a replay of the Texas game.

 

[hoophuskee]

This thread is about the NCAA Tourney as to who starts at pg. Overall looking at NCAA's from this point, if healthy all we know is that UCONN has 6 reliable players. every other position/player than the core 6 is speculation. And overall this team is small. Their strength is in their perimeter.

In all of sports there times we see teams or individuals lose their way in trying to be something they are not. Classic case was in boxing when Sugar Ray fought Roberto Duran the 1st time, he tried to be like Duran instead of playing to his strengths. The next time he played to his strengths and won.

UCONN's strength is in their perimeter. Until/unless another big other than Edwards (and Edwards is a small post too) establishes themselves, this early imo the most obvious choice is that you start your known productive players that will best make the team better. What makes the team better is a combo of pressure and pace and having the potential 2 best players in WCBB get potentially as many shots as possible. The best solution to this is to start Muhl with Paige and Azzi. Looking so far in adnavce this early go with what you know. when it's this elite.

 

[hoophuskee]

Somehow I have a hard time imagining Geno starting a game with a pressing lineup. I agree that UConn will be trying to play more uptempo to take advantage of their depth, but that is a specialty team, not what you start against Stanford or SCar.

Griffin is the fastest player on the team according to Geno, and Bueckers is second fastest. Geno can put a very fast team on the floor with only two guards.

I believe I read on here that there was a quote from Geno that he will look to press more this year. We'll have to see about health as well. All my comments have bene "assuming helath." SO yes if healthy, no reason why UCONN won't press early..

Secondly, I don’t know what Stanford or SC has - other than a couple of players. But if the offense is run heavily through their posts then they absolutely are a candidate to press.

Third, you aren't just looking to press vs top teams. You also don't want the historic non-top teams to beat you. Meaning their are many other teams that have capabilities. SO you aren’t going to avoid starting every game without pressure because their might be a couple of super teams in the future that can handle your pressure. (in which you maybe never play especially talking NCAA's which this thread is>). UCONN can develop a unversla style and then teh super teams are the exception.

And when you speak of "fastest" that’s all fine and good. . But there is much much much more to basketball than track meets. To further that point, a pas by Nika Muhl goes much faster at greater distances than Aubrey's track speed. Adn Nika Muhl throws many more passes than Aubrey thus more repsonsible for pace. That's why you go with Nika//Paige and not Aubrey at the 3 - but I agree with you if Aubrey is at the 4 in terms of starting that is fine. The 4's generally aren't much passers overall in terms of setting pace. whiel Nika along with Paige ande Azzi at the 1-3 would be.

 

[diggerfoot]

Who is Jokic? If it's NBA I don't watch so your analogy is wasted on me.

I agree that there are grey areas in the wager. My point was never that Muhl wouldn't start. I got into this by saying that Geno would not start three guards in 2024 despite having done so in the past. My reasons are spelled out on several posts and I'm not going to restate them here. The bottom line is that if Geno starts 2 guards then they are Bueckers and Fudd. Plus, I always prefaced my predictions based on everyone being healthy and at 100%. The reality is likely to be different from that. You therefore have a huge built-in advantage in that injuries only increase the odds of Muhl starting. So what I will bet on is that those three players will not all start in either UConn's first regular season or in the first NCAA game. There are just too many other factors that can change things.

Your two claims, three guards will not start + two starting guards are Fudd and Bueckers, are a syllogism that necessarily concludes Muhl will not start.

You do have a valid point that injuries to a variety of players favor Muhl starting, but an injury to Muhl causes me to lose the bet the way you’ve constructed it.

My counter is that all three will start the NCAA games barring injuries to any of them. Player injuries to any of those three, Griffin or Ducharme cancels the bet. Your “odds” now will be that injuries to four players will cancel the bet in your favor, while only an injury to Muhl cancels the bet in my favor.

 

[meyers7]

One important factor is the overall condition of Paige's knee in the recovery process.
If Geno plans on giving her more frequent rests to put less stress on it then it would make more sense to not start Nika so that she can come in as Paige's sub.
If Nika starts along with Paige & doesn't come in to sub for her then another PG will soon need to come in to sub for Nika.
Especially because there will be so many other PG's & guards that Geno will also want to be able to sub into games.
It doesn't make sense to me to start both until all of the issues with Paige's knee are resolved.
It would make more sense that they be platooned more often than not rather then playing as a tandem.

In addition, Azzi can also handle the ball well enough to push it up court with Just Go by committee.
When Paige's knee needs a rest then in comes Nika.

Not true. That's not how Geno subs. If The Kid, the Icon and Fudd all start along with Edwards (as expected), then say Ice/CDF/Griffin is the 5th starter. Then one of the other 2 would come in for the Icon and The Kid slides over to the main PG. (in reality The Kid and the Icon will probably be splitting PG duties when they play together.....like they've done in the past)

Geno doesn't necessarily sub PG for PG, or F for F, etc. He will sometimes, but is not bound by that. That's why he likes players who can play multiple positions. He can mix and match depending on what he needs/wants.