Who’s Expert Picks do you rely on?

[MTBingNinja]

Doing my Monday morning post bracket release. I often rely on expert picks, how would I know more than them? We’ll…,Looking at how the so called “experts” did last year, they didn’t seem to have much expertise. Some of the experts went 0/4 on their picks. Certainly none went 4/4, one went 3/4 on their bracket. Seems like a crapshoot. Anyone here on the board want to share how they make their winning picks?

 

[HooperScooper]

None. They all can't predict better than the average college basketball fan. The NCAA Tournament is such a crap shoot.

One year I filled out a bracket just using Kenpom's ratings. I picked every game by who had a higher Kenpom ranking. It was a terrible bracket. Worst I've ever done.

I think you just need to make educated guesses going with the higher seeds most of the time. Pick 1 team, a very high seeded one, you think will win it all and ride that team to the championship.

 

[MTBingNinja]

Sometimes my picks depend on the size of the pool I’m in. If it’s just a pool where I’m wagering a dinner with a friend, I am more conservative with my picks. If it’s a large pool, have to guess where those upsets are and pick a dark horse

 

[Deleted at users request]

Typically nothing matters except for Final Four when it comes to bracket pools. If you can get that right you should be good.

 

[uconnfan68]

Jay Bilas.

 

[UCTitleTown]

Charles Barkley. Whoever he picks, I pick the other team. It's been a very successful approach over the years.

 

[MTBingNinja]

I like Jay Atler’s input, but can seem to find much of his input on his picks or his bracket sheet this year.

 

[Travelman6]

Whoever picks UConn to go far.

 

[That Guy]

You have to go by the analytics for seed performance in the tournament. It's pretty much a given that at least one 1 seed will make the F4, maybe two. I would also have a 2 in there and my final team would be a wildcard that you really like that's seeded anywhere from 3 to 11.

 

[CTBasketball]

One year I filled out a bracket just using Kenpom's ratings. I picked every game by who had a higher Kenpom ranking. It was a terrible bracket. Worst I've ever done.

 

[uconn_jack]

The scorekeeper's.

 

[Fishy]

I pick UConn to win the title game and work backwards from there.

 

[NJHusky]

Whoever picks UConn to go far.

How’d that work past 2 years.

 

[CardiacAndre7]

I do 1 bracket where UConn wins it all, and a few others that may be a bit more realistic. I think if we match up with Kansas it’s pretty much a pickem’, and then after that anything goes.

 

[August_West]

I pick UConn to win the title game and work backwards from there.

If you put 100 dollars on UConn to win the title in the preseason every year for last 23 years by conservative estimate you would be ahead 21700 dollars

 

[August_West]

None. They all can't predict better than the average college basketball fan. The NCAA Tournament is such a crap shoot.

One year I filled out a bracket just using Kenpom's ratings. I picked every game by who had a higher Kenpom ranking. It was a terrible bracket. Worst I've ever done.

I think you just need to make educated guesses going with the higher seeds most of the time. Pick 1 team, a very high seeded one, you think will win it all and ride that team to the championship.

But the numbers!

 

[ConnHuskBask]

1 bracket, everyone knows the rules.

 

[UofCT]

For this year I decided to follow a lot of the analytic geeks who also support historical ncaa tournament trends. It all points to UConn.

 

[MTBingNinja]

Like a lot of teams, UConn could get bumped out the first round or win it all. Hearing there’s about 15 teams that have a reasonable chance to win it all

 

[BLUEDOGHOUSE]

If you put 100 dollars on UConn to win the title in the preseason every year for last 23 years by conservative estimate you would be ahead 21700 dollars

Hey AW,

UConn was 100/1 @ Wynn before the 2013/14 season. Then one bet knocked it down to 80/1. So shopping around helps to get a better return.

Interesting post....

 

[August_West]

Hey AW,

UConn was 100/1 @ Wynn before the 2013/14 season. Then one bet knocked it down to 80/1. So shopping around helps to get a better return.

Interesting post....

conservative estimate. Someone with more time on their hands than I could actually figure out the exact preseason odds for all four titles and give an exact number thats surely much higher.

 

[gtcam]

If you watch a lot of college hoops and listen to college hoops radio talks that feature current and recently retired coaches throughout the season, you can pick better than any of these network sponsored prognosticators.
I annually do better than the bunch of them and have won many bracket contests. This year is harder because the transfer pool has caused a leveling aspect of the talent level and there is no top 10 - 15 teams. The top 4 seeds all can be beaten by any 10 seed and up, in addition, I fear upsets will be more the norm than an anomaly.
Let the fun begin

 

[DCUconnfan]

None. They all can't predict better than the average college basketball fan. The NCAA Tournament is such a crap shoot.

One year I filled out a bracket just using Kenpom's ratings. I picked every game by who had a higher Kenpom ranking. It was a terrible bracket. Worst I've ever done.

I think you just need to make educated guesses going with the higher seeds most of the time. Pick 1 team, a very high seeded one, you think will win it all and ride that team to the championship.

Something tells me you used Kenpom incorrectly. It might not be the end all, be all, but for the sake of discussion, just because one team is ranked ahead of another on kenpom doesn't automatically mean they are favored to win the game.

And while you're correct it's a crapshoot (again, for the sake of discussion, Craps has the best odds of winning of any game in the casino albeit you are still destined to lose), there's some level of non-crapshoot. Seeds 1 thru 4 have advanced at least 75% of the time out of the first round, and at least 68% of the time from the second round. 1 Seeds have made it to the sweet 16 86% of the time, which means you could reasonably place a 4 leg parlay on all 4 one-seeds to make the sweet 16 and feel pretty good about the odds of that happening versus the odds of the parlay (+308 as of this afternoon). Your last statement on that account is perfect, especially for standard bracket pools - the odds of you winning your pool and not having the national champion (or at a minimum the two teams in the championship) are really small.

Anddd I've gone way overboard with this rant.

 

[Travelman6]

How’d that work past 2 years.

Sometimes it works well (99, 04, 09, 11, 14) sometimes it doesn't.

 

[storrsroars]

My winner will be a team with top 20 offense and defense ratings. Other than that, whatever sounds reasonable and defensible, also keeping in mind @MTBingNinja 's advice on type of pool.