Where UConn's Starting Lineup is Heading

[BlueSkyGLW]

Has Morgan left the building?

Geno raves about her. It's strange virtually no one here is giving her a shot at PT. She looked competent and confident vs. BU, although not wholly impactful, and we need to remember that was her first competitive outing.

Anybody coming in her freshman year who is going to rise in the rotation towards the 5 starters has to show what she can do very early and jump over those with playing experience in the team, not just earn favorable comments from Coach G but actually compel him to do something to the effect. Sarah is the latest of those who have earned a spot among the starters from Day 1 and maybe not by default (would she have if Caroline or Ayanna or Aubrey were fully healthy? maybe not but I believe Coach G would have wanted to find out right away what she can do given her size and skillset).

Coach G's rave comments aside, was Morgan even close to being considered for a rotation spot close to the starters or in the top 7 with four really good players with experience still out? If not, she has time to show she deserves consideration to rise in rotation spot - up to her but she has plenty of competition, especially when the four returning from injuries are fully healthy.

Don't get me wrong, I would love to see her do well but I think that of the others, too.

 

[BlueSkyGLW]

Rotations Analysis: UConn vs BU, 11/7/2024:

• 14 Rotations (Table 1);
• For the (1) position: Kaitlyn and KK;
• For the (5) position: Ice and Jana;
• For the (4) position (2 posts): Sarah;
• For the (4) position (4-guard): Morgan and Qadence / Allie;
• Paige is primarily used as a (3);
• Ash is primarily used as a (2);
• Q and Allie are glue: (3)-(4), sometimes (2).

Best Rotations #2:

• Starting Rotation: ROT 1: Kaitlyn, Ash, Paige, Sarah, Ice
• ROT 3: Kaitlyn, Ash, Paige, Sarah, Jana
• Sophomores + Sarah: ROT 10 #1: KK, Ash, Q, Sarah, Ice

#1: Swap Sarah with Aubrey / Morgan / Ayanna (?) / Caroline (?) and this potentially the second five when the walking wounded return, i.e. with a potential eventual starting lineup of Kaitlyn, Azzi, Paige, Sarah, Jana.

#2 1-game sample size.

View attachment 104667

View attachment 104668

There is a weakness in this analysis: the different lineup combinations did not face the same opposition players when they were on court, hence their performance effectiveness have no common frame of reference to truly judge how well each one performed. But thanks for the effort, best you can do in any lineup shuffling in any game since the opposition is also changing its lineup combinations.

 

[The deacon]

Still, if you disagree, perhaps you’d care to share your vision of her role in the rotation.

Seriously, Bone Dog? Check with Geno... I don't recall you categorizing the various factors you considered for each of your ten rotation players. Again, based on what the coach has said multiple times, what I saw at the XL Center on Thursday, and all I've read and seen about Morgan, she is and will be good enough.

IMHO.

 

[NycUcWbbFan]

There is a weakness in this analysis: the different lineup combinations did not face the same opposition players when they were on court, hence their performance effectiveness have no common frame of reference to truly judge how well each one performed. But thanks for the effort, best you can do in any lineup shuffling in any game since the opposition is also changing its lineup combinations.

It’s not the analysis. It’s game realities which we both agree on.

• UConn’s Rotation 01 (starters) faces off for the most part with the opponent’s Rotation 01;
• After that, Rotation vs Rotation is determined by the decisions of two coaches;
• Against a team like BU (who had 16 rotations), game realities don’t skew the analysis too much since UConn’s players are simply better than BU’s;
• In this example, Rotations 1 and 3 are comparable for starting lineup comparisons b/c they both were mostly in the earliest competitive minutes;
• Rotation 10 is basically bench vs bench, so not comparable to Rotations 1 and 3;
• As for Geno’s player usage for positions (1) to (5), the analysis does illustrate Geno’s thinking on many BY preoccupations: Kaitlyn vs KK, Paige as (3) vs (1), Morgan, etc.

Geno will winnow down his combinations based on what he sees with more games, and the analysis above is a simulacrum to what he sees.

The analysis preliminarily shows some support for (5)+4 or (5)+5, which you earlier opined on.

 

[packwrap]

Rotations - good fun.

Our best rotation is Sarah. We can switch from 2 posts to 4 guards, just by moving Sarah out to the perimeter.

Similarly, in a pinch Paige, Aubrey and Caroline all easily move from front court to back court as needed.

 

[Bone Dog]

Seriously, Bone Dog? Check with Geno... I don't recall you categorizing the various factors you considered for each of your ten rotation players. Again, based on what the coach has said multiple times, what I saw at the XL Center on Thursday, and all I've read and seen about Morgan, she is and will be good enough.

IMHO.

Have I ever said I doubt her? I was her main cheerleader before the season, and I think she has a bright future in Storrs. She can definitely compete for a rotation spot. Will she be a starter this season? I think not. And she may not secure a rotation spot. You seem to think otherwise and scolded everyone for seeming to ignore her. Fine. But then how exactly do you see her fitting into the rotation this season? Will she squeeze out Aubrey? or Ayanna? Caroline? Allie? Ice? Q? It would be worth hearing your thinking on this.

I have made a case for various rotations in several threads, so I didn't feel the need to do so here, in a thread expressly devoted to speculating on the starters for the rest of the season. But since you think it's necessary here too, I'll oblige, and I assume you'll reciprocate. My assumption is that the starters will eventually become

Paige Azzi Chen Sarah and Jana.​

​

This would suggest to me a rotation of

Ice (to replace Jana when she sits, Ash for when Azzi sits, KK to spell Chen (though they may really be interchangeable by the end of February), and Aubrey for Sarah.​

​

I think my priorities should be clear just from the selection itself. But if it isn't, I'm making a guess about who will master the defense soonest while providing a scoring punch, and I also think greater repetitions are crucial in building a championship team. My guess is that Morgan will not be among the 8 or 9 best defenders. Events could prove me wrong, but now you know my thinking about this.

Also, obviously, the rotation players need not be a 1-for-1 swap for starters since court balance and maintaining rebounding and perimeter shooting is important, but also Geno may sometimes want to play a quicker smaller unit, or a bigger stronger one. Also, is 5+4 too deep a rotation for February-March, or too short. Would 5+5 be preferable and still allow for enough repetition, and if so, would that make room for Morgan, or would you prefer Ayanna in order to have a stronger rebounding presence? What factors seem to you to determine the right depth for a rotation? Finally, the rotation doesn't need to be a rigid formula. Morgan may not get more than a few minutes for a stretch and then play huge minutes in a key game. But by the end of the season, if you examine the numbers, a few distinctions will inevitably emerge.

Lots of interesting questions here. But 2 caveats:

• Lots of players will find some minutes even if they're not part of the main rotation. As an arbitrary cutoff, I tend to think of > or < than 10 minutes as the distinction. You can make a case for something else if you like.
• Tell me what you think about Morgan and the rotation you have in mind. Scolding me, or anyone else, for overlooking someone doesn't convey much information about the team.

 

[my2cents]

When the discussions get this detailed, it only means we have a multitude of good players.
Our core right now is Chen, Bueckers, Shade and Strong.
When Azzi gets back , she may not start but she will get a lot of minutes.
Then, it will be Geno deciding what players to use to win a game against certain opponents.
From two games, I see Jana and Morgan's stock on the rise.

 

[Fore!]

I hope the ND game will be “Must Watch TV.” But as of right now, ND’s roster is dealing with a rash of injuries that make UConn’s issues appear insignificant. Watson & Bransford are out for the season. Westbeld, Citron & Karlen are all dealing with injuries and uncertain timetables for their return.

Citron played today against Purdue and looked good, as did their team.

 

[jeff30189]

What are the mini-objectives? (constraints in a constrained optimization)

• Part of Geno’s Kaitlyn calculus is a deducible conclusion that Geno feels that KK is not yet ready to be lead point guard. But Geno needs KK to develop this year into next year’s lead point guard (learned from Nika, Kaitlyn and Paige), if Paige and Azzi do move on. Having both Kaitlyn and KK as non-starters is counter to this mini-objective.
• This is a deep lineup. Apportioning minutes is already a challenge. No need to make it more challenging by front-loading rotations with the best players all season.
• The beauty of a deep bench is when the bench is developed and clobbers the other team’s bench. Ash and Aubrey can be the head of the spear of the bench wave.
• UConn’s team (positionless) offense and defense are predicated on interchangeable players. Starting out with the highest gear lineup may not be the best way to develop 10 effective freshmen and sophomores.

+100 with one caveat: I think Ash stays as a starter and Azzi is the killer off the bench (still getting starter minutes). The reasoning is that Ash seems to have an unlimited motor, can shoot the midrange, can shoot the 3, can drive to the hole and is also a defensive menace. Azzi has proven to be fragile. Maybe she is better utilized as an interchangeable supersub for Paige, Ash and Kaitlyn - 120 starter minutes for 3 positions spread across 4 exceptional players.

 

[Skeets]

OK, 1 thing is extremely clear, put 20 boneyarders together and you will get 20 different opinions. Here's #21. The starting 5 will stay as it is for the next several games. The rotation will not be reduced, except in the most competitive games. Everyone will get minutes. By mid-February the rotation will be reduced to 5+3. Who those players are will depend on what happens between now and mid February. There are only a few "locks" and there could be 1 or 2 surprises. That is what makes this fun.

 

[BlueSkyGLW]

It’s not the analysis. It’s game realities which we both agree on.

• UConn’s Rotation 01 (starters) faces off for the most part with the opponent’s Rotation 01;
• After that, Rotation vs Rotation is determined by the decisions of two coaches;
• Against a team like BU (who had 16 rotations), game realities don’t skew the analysis too much since UConn’s players are simply better than BU’s;
• In this example, Rotations 1 and 3 are comparable for starting lineup comparisons b/c they both were mostly in the earliest competitive minutes;
• Rotation 10 is basically bench vs bench, so not comparable to Rotations 1 and 3;
• As for Geno’s player usage for positions (1) to (5), the analysis does illustrate Geno’s thinking on many BY preoccupations: Kaitlyn vs KK, Paige as (3) vs (1), Morgan, etc.

Geno will winnow down his combinations based on what he sees with more games, and the analysis above is a simulacrum to what he sees.

The analysis preliminarily shows some support for (5)+4 or (5)+5, which you earlier opined on.

The judgment that can be gleaned of course improves as more data is accumulated, regardless of the Team A vs Teams B lineup combinations. Thanks for spending the time.

 

[hoophuskee]

It’s not the analysis. It’s game realities which we both agree on.

• UConn’s Rotation 01 (starters) faces off for the most part with the opponent’s Rotation 01;
• After that, Rotation vs Rotation is determined by the decisions of two coaches;
• Against a team like BU (who had 16 rotations), game realities don’t skew the analysis too much since UConn’s players are simply better than BU’s;
• In this example, Rotations 1 and 3 are comparable for starting lineup comparisons b/c they both were mostly in the earliest competitive minutes;
• Rotation 10 is basically bench vs bench, so not comparable to Rotations 1 and 3;
• As for Geno’s player usage for positions (1) to (5), the analysis does illustrate Geno’s thinking on many BY preoccupations: Kaitlyn vs KK, Paige as (3) vs (1), Morgan, etc.

Geno will winnow down his combinations based on what he sees with more games, and the analysis above is a simulacrum to what he sees.

The analysis preliminarily shows some support for (5)+4 or (5)+5, which you earlier opined on.

I agree with blue but your effort is amazing. I'm guessing the numbers might even out over time - maybe - but still it;s so tough to draw much from different lineups if it doesn't, wouldn't it? For example UCONN went on a torrid run when they started to press. Thus about 40%- 50% of the minutes for Rot 1 of their 13 minutes they didn't press until 5:50 in 1st qtr. The biggest runs were when pressing. So ofc the strarters wouldn't show as much as other lineups all because of a philosophy change not because of different lineups.

And secondly, when UCONN plays very tough teams in which they might even lose, this may drag down overall stats from the core players, wouldn't it? .

 

[NycUcWbbFan]

+100 with one caveat: I think Ash stays as a starter and Azzi is the killer off the bench (still getting starter minutes). The reasoning is that Ash seems to have an unlimited motor, can shoot the midrange, can shoot the 3, can drive to the hole and is also a defensive menace. Azzi has proven to be fragile. Maybe she is better utilized as an interchangeable supersub for Paige, Ash and Kaitlyn - 120 starter minutes for 3 positions spread across 4 exceptional players.

Yeah, Ash presents a wonderful conundrum with her stellar play. Whether she remains a starter or not, she will always get near the most minutes every game. If the team stays on this trajectory, this team will harken back to the “old” days of pick-your-poison, game-wide dominant play.

 

[NycUcWbbFan]

I agree with blue but your effort is amazing. I'm guessing the numbers might even out over time - maybe - but still it;s so tough to draw much from different lineups if it doesn't, wouldn't it? For example UCONN went on a torrid run when they started to press. Thus about 40%- 50% of the minutes for Rot 1 of their 13 minutes they didn't press until 5:50 in 1st qtr. The biggest runs were when pressing. So ofc the strarters wouldn't show as much as other lineups all because of a philosophy change not because of different lineups.

And secondly, when UCONN plays very tough teams in which they might even lose, this may drag down overall stats from the core players, wouldn't it? .

I did build and finished a tool with many pre-set reports so I can just take play by play info after a game and have many things to look at. Can you tell I am excited about this season?

I try not to draw too much conclusions from a single game. A game is not a pattern. But a cognizable pattern will eventually emerge, especially with the December - January games.

As for pressing — or any mini-game within a game: I can filter the set reports. Right now, one of the pre-set filters are Competitive, Training and Garbage minutes. Overlaying to account for presses is no biggie.

 

[Majic Hands]

The reasons I watch UConn is the vision of excellence from Geno and CD and the development of the players over their careers at UConn.

I was expecting to see Jana and Ice as the starters out front to begin this season because. . .

1: Jana watching on the sidelines for almost a whole season, and she’s practicing with the team, watching her in FIBA where she suffered the injury. Watching another season from the sidelines but having ample time for recovery before the next season started.
2: Ice watching from the sidelines for a season, then last season she as she got stronger and began to figure it out by the end of the season stepping up when Ashleigh wasn’t available. This season she showed up physically fit and ready to get busy.

I don’t pay attention to potential Player in HS. I start paying attention when they show up on campus.

Holly Cow! I get why Geno is starting Ice and Sarah and bringing Jana off the bench.

Ice is a year of playing time ahead of Jana. Jana is so excited she’s loosing her mind. Sarah. Sarah has to be on the floor from the get go with Geno talking AA and I suspect that the coaching staff is putting her right into pressure situation of starting because they think she will grow with pressure.

I’m not sure if I’ve ever seen a group at the beginning of the year that have impressed me as much as this group of kids.

I’m so looking forward for each game to see the tweaks the coaches make and how the kids develop.

As far as the talent still in recovery from injuries. . . I’m not expecting any of them to come in and be starters very quickly. I don’t think there will be a “pressing” need and I suspect they will have minute restrictions anyway. I also think that the longer they’re out the further behind on chemistry with the team.

I’m hoping for Azzi to be playing her best basketball at UConn by tournament time and to be a lot better next year.

Gotta admit I enjoy pretty basketball!

 

[Bone Dog]

@The deacon has me thinking more about Morgan. No, I don't think she starts this season -- maybe next season though. And she may not be one of the first 3 or 4 off the bench (my new phrase for "rotation player").

But in conference play, when more blowouts are likely, it's possible we'll see the pattern of these last couple of games, with Paige Ash and Sarah sitting out the entire 4th quarter. This could mean Morgan sees a lot more minutes in those games. Geno has said he's looking for the spark when Paige sits and that could turn out to be Morgan.

Of course, the return of Azzi may completely disrupt this pattern. Only time will tell. And my suspicion remains that by their junior year, it will be Morgan Sarah and Jana's team. They will provide its spirit and spark.

 

[oldude]

Morgan is currently shooting 1000% from the arc. If she continues to make anywhere close to that percentage of her 3-pt shots, it will be impossible to keep her out of the rotation.

 

[oldhusky]

Have I ever said I doubt her? I was her main cheerleader before the season, and I think she has a bright future in Storrs. She can definitely compete for a rotation spot. Will she be a starter this season? I think not. And she may not secure a rotation spot. You seem to think otherwise and scolded everyone for seeming to ignore her. Fine. But then how exactly do you see her fitting into the rotation this season? Will she squeeze out Aubrey? or Ayanna? Caroline? Allie? Ice? Q? It would be worth hearing your thinking on this.

I have made a case for various rotations in several threads, so I didn't feel the need to do so here, in a thread expressly devoted to speculating on the starters for the rest of the season. But since you think it's necessary here too, I'll oblige, and I assume you'll reciprocate. My assumption is that the starters will eventually become

Paige Azzi Chen Sarah and Jana.​

​

This would suggest to me a rotation of

Ice (to replace Jana when she sits, Ash for when Azzi sits, KK to spell Chen (though they may really be interchangeable by the end of February), and Aubrey for Sarah.​

​

I think my priorities should be clear just from the selection itself. But if it isn't, I'm making a guess about who will master the defense soonest while providing a scoring punch, and I also think greater repetitions are crucial in building a championship team. My guess is that Morgan will not be among the 8 or 9 best defenders. Events could prove me wrong, but now you know my thinking about this.

Also, obviously, the rotation players need not be a 1-for-1 swap for starters since court balance and maintaining rebounding and perimeter shooting is important, but also Geno may sometimes want to play a quicker smaller unit, or a bigger stronger one. Also, is 5+4 too deep a rotation for February-March, or too short. Would 5+5 be preferable and still allow for enough repetition, and if so, would that make room for Morgan, or would you prefer Ayanna in order to have a stronger rebounding presence? What factors seem to you to determine the right depth for a rotation? Finally, the rotation doesn't need to be a rigid formula. Morgan may not get more than a few minutes for a stretch and then play huge minutes in a key game. But by the end of the season, if you examine the numbers, a few distinctions will inevitably emerge.

Lots of interesting questions here. But 2 caveats:

• Lots of players will find some minutes even if they're not part of the main rotation. As an arbitrary cutoff, I tend to think of > or < than 10 minutes as the distinction. You can make a case for something else if you like.
• Tell me what you think about Morgan and the rotation you have in mind. Scolding me, or anyone else, for overlooking someone doesn't convey much information about the team.

I think your expected rotation could be viewed as a good baseline. It is clean with well defined roles and keeps players in their natural positions. Geno probably would need a reason to deviate from that, but unlike prior years, he has many options this year, in terms of playing styles and players to carry them out.

As you indicate it doesn't have to be a 1 for 1 swap. Paige in particular means you can substitute most any bench player for positions 1-4. If Sarah needed a blow and you want to bring in KK for her for a few minutes, no problem Paige could play the 4 for a short stretch etc. That versatility makes a 10 player rotation less likely in my opinion, unless the 9th and 10th players are close in ability to the 6th and 7th, but of course this year that might be the case.

A factor working in the opposite direction, incorporating more players would be more use of specialized units, an offensive unit, defensive unit, a pressing and fast breaking lineup etc. But because of Paige's versatility and perhaps Morgan's as well, the floor for regular playing time is quite high. Being the second best player at your natural position doesn't insure playing time if moving a couple of more talented players around gets better results.

Having said that, I hope we can achieve a normal or baseline rotation that is close to 10, and that on occasion, we use another couple of players for specialized situations, or strategic game lineups.

 

[hoophuskee]

I did build and finished a tool with many pre-set reports so I can just take play by play info after a game and have many things to look at. Can you tell I am excited about this season?

I try not to draw too much conclusions from a single game. A game is not a pattern. But a cognizable pattern will eventually emerge, especially with the December - January games.

As for pressing — or any mini-game within a game: I can filter the set reports. Right now, one of the pre-set filters are Competitive, Training and Garbage minutes. Overlaying to account for presses is no biggie.

wow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! wow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I don't know what many of the categories mean but if you are going to do more of these I'd love to learn.

What makes this season crazy fun is that fits into many of our wheelhouses which is that some/many of us love to speculate/anticipate/predict,. This team has soooo many options but it is soooooooooooooooo unclear how rotations will play out in one month/2months / 3 months from now. And what makes it more crazy is that you have Azzi looming. You have Aubrey looming a bit further down the road. And of course Ayanna and Caroline.

Generally, you go with the experience. But as the poster UConnCat mentioned the freshmen are very smart- I also take that for being very fundamental and understanding who they are as players. (I do think Paige and to a lesser extent "The Freshman," Sarah allow this easier flow but still they seem outstanding in this regard.). But for example the Cheli 3 with about 6.5 minutes left with someone close to her and she still stuck it. Her form looked beautiful though I'm not a coach so I can't tell. But I'm thinking if possible when she sets her feet she might have a terrific shot.

And at this point she then can rival Aubrey for minutes. In part we don't know how well Aubrey will be. But Cheli's shot sure looks good when she can set her feet,- so far.

 

[topogigio]

Me thinks a “starting line-up” will be match up dependent. A opponent with height will require one thing, while an outside shooting road running team, another. Regardless, I trust Geno!

 

[adc]

It's been so long since I saw Azzi play, but don't recall her having the quickness or strength that Ash has... We will see

 

[Alydar]

Not neglecting that at all.....the point is, if his prime 6/7 rotation players plays 35+ minutes per game from the turn of the year, niggling injuries and diminished stamina begin to set in and his insurance is/are not prepared at the same level in performance level. That then results in reduced performance effectiveness for the team. So, he has to find a way to lengthen the rotation which prepares him twofold: more players he can rely on come tournament time and margin for unforeseen events, such as injuries - even minor ones which would diminish performance.

If he has learned anything at all....he must because he now knows from this long title drought that very short rotations forced upon him by short or diminished healthy rosters has not been successful for one reason or another (injuries, physical and mental fatigue, etc), regardless of the cohesion the primary players have gained.

If he is not thinking like that now, why then does he have 14 in the current roster and it will be at that level again or 15 next year, which is a change from the past 20 years maybe. During those years he probably had only 9/10 rotation candidates and the rest of the roster were basically passengers/cheerleaders. This time, there is very little dropoff in potential for the tailend of the scholarship roster.

One big reason for expanding rosters is the portal.

 

[BlueSkyGLW]

One big reason for expanding rosters is the portal.

Right now he is doing it mostly by recruiting but has indeed scanned the portal more, albeit selectively. It's early but I would say Kaitlyn is a nice pickup.

 

[BlueSkyGLW]

The delayed return of injured players is a lucky turn for the younger ones and may create a dilemma for the coach when the entire roster is fully healthy. I say lucky turn because it affords the young ones the playing time needed to grow up faster (as shown last year, in most recent example) - as well as more practice time. Were the more experienced ones been available, we would be seeing better defense (positioning, timing in switching, connectedness, etc) as well as a more well-oiled offense, especially in half-court.

Some key OOC games will happen soon so I hope enough progress is made. Read, react, timing of movements, especially screening still not ready for the really good teams. As last year, the young ones are improving faster - one hopes there will enough growth before the Notre Dame game, for instance. Otherwise, victories will depend more on star performances.

OTOH, it is good to see this acceleration of growth among the young ones........as expected improvements come soon, I don't envy Coach G's task of sorting things for player combinations and rotations.

That said, I am doubling down on the growth in major contributions from Sarah and Jana. Beyond what we know to expect from Paige, Azzi and the others, these two will be major keys in maximizing the chance for #12 which have been missing in recent past.