What's the magic number?

[SubbaBub]

I would be shocked if the Big East signed in the exclusive period. Really makes no sense for either party. ESPN isn't going to give them ACC money and no reason to sign unless it's ACC money. The Big East went this far, may as well get out in open seas.

I wouldn't be surprised by any result in any type of negotiations. You never know how much or how little resolve the key decision maker has in the room.

I suspect the BE decision maker will be fairly weak kneed, and would jump at a guarantee of ACC money.

What I don't know is how badly ESPN wants to keep NBC at bay. $40m worth? Or the difference in between the ACC and their initial offer? A $6B company can afford it if they really want to freeze out NBC.

My guess is ESPN will make that offer as a take it or leave it and live with the consequences. But, not before letting the public know they are out weakening the BE position with NBC, at least as a threat to keep the bidding down in case they want to jump back in, later. It's what I would do.

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[UConnDan97]

I wouldn't be surprised by any result in any type of negotiations. You never know how much or how little resolve the key decision maker has in the room.

I suspect the BE decision maker will be fairly weak kneed, and would jump at a guarantee of ACC money.

What I don't know is how badly ESPN wants to keep NBC at bay. $40m worth? Or the difference in between the ACC and their initial offer? A $6B company can afford it if they really want to freeze out NBC.

My guess is ESPN will make that offer as a take it or leave it and live with the consequences. But, not before letting the public know they are out weakening the BE position with NBC, at least as a threat to keep the bidding down in case they want to jump back in, later. It's what I would do.

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I agree with this. The point of an exclusivity period in any negotiation, in my opinion, is to make a temporary pitch. Essentially, party A says to party B, "Here's what I'm willing to offer you now, but don't expect it in the open market." It is a large game of chicken.

I also agree with your assessment that the Big East brass, upon the sight of an ACC-like money contract, would sign right then and there. If ESPN offers in the ballpark of 17 million per team, I think we are hearing the last of any Big East to NBC talk.

 

[CL82]

The NBE as far as football will be nothing more than filler for whatever network winds up with the games. There are reasons why the old BE footballl viewership numbers are the worst and that is because the old BE had few compelling teams that people wanted to watch and now that the three top draws of the old BE have or will be moving on those numbers will likely fall even further.

Say NBC gets the NBE TV deal and they put a NBE game on between say two top half of the conference NBE teams. In the same time slot there are games involving top half of the conference teams from one or more of the Power 5 Conferences. You have to be delusional to think that the NBE game will draw any serious viewership.

The NBE game may even get worse ratings than whatever infomercials are on in the same time slot.

I think a lot of the BE #s have to do with bad time slots and zero (or perhaps negative) promotion. Wrap the games around Notre Dame and promote the match ups all week and you'll see those numbers increase...dramatically.

 

[CL82]

I agree with this. The point of an exclusivity period in any negotiation, in my opinion, is to make a temporary pitch. Essentially, party A says to party B, "Here's what I'm willing to offer you now, but don't expect it in the open market." It is a large game of chicken.

I also agree with your assessment that the Big East brass, upon the sight of an ACC-like money contract, would sign right then and there. If ESPN offers in the ballpark of 17 million per team, I think we are hearing the last of any Big East to NBC talk.

Agree with both of you. It is hard to walk away from numbers that, essentially, are an admission that we belong at the big boy table. Still, without some guarantees to protect the Big East brand, acceptance of a deal that "approaches" 17M is a mistake.

 

[UConnDan97]

Agree with both of you. It is hard to walk away from numbers that, essentially, are an admission that we belong at the big boy table. Still, without some guarantees to protect the Big East brand, acceptance of a deal that "approaches" 17M is a mistake.

Well let me put it another way; at least half of the Boneyarders (if not more) believe that if we accepted the 11 mil per team contract from ESPN last year, that we would not have lost some or most of the four teams that we've lost. I don't happen to be one of them, but many Boneyarders will tell you that story.

Now imagine if ESPN were to offer even 15 or 16 million per team, and the Big East says that they would like to test the open market. God forbid, the Big East gets stuck taking a much lower bid from ESPN or another competitor, it will be looked upon as a titanic disaster. At that point, teams might not even need an invite to leave the conference!!

It's a very tricky situation, no doubt about it. Huskymedic just posted a thread talking about the Big East signing some media consultants in preparation for the negotiations, which I think is a good move. We need every possible professional out there that is willing to work with us to be in that room and help guide the conference through the biggest decision it has ever had to make...

 

[whaler11]

I wouldn't be surprised by any result in any type of negotiations. You never know how much or how little resolve the key decision maker has in the room.

I suspect the BE decision maker will be fairly weak kneed, and would jump at a guarantee of ACC money.

What I don't know is how badly ESPN wants to keep NBC at bay. $40m worth? Or the difference in between the ACC and their initial offer? A $6B company can afford it if they really want to freeze out NBC.

My guess is ESPN will make that offer as a take it or leave it and live with the consequences. But, not before letting the public know they are out weakening the BE position with NBC, at least as a threat to keep the bidding down in case they want to jump back in, later. It's what I would do.

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If ESPN wants to freeze out NBC why would the offer be take it or leave it?

I don't think ESPN will up their bid, but if their intention is to freeze out NBC, take it or leave it makes no sense. Because unless the dollars are ridiculous, they are going to leave it. If they are willing to pay ridiculous dollars, why would they walk away from the negotiations because another party was involved.

 

[whaler11]

Well let me put it another way; at least half of the Boneyarders (if not more) believe that if we accepted the 11 mil per team contract from ESPN last year, that we would not have lost some or most of the four teams that we've lost. I don't happen to be one of them, but many Boneyarders will tell you that story.

Now imagine if ESPN were to offer even 15 or 16 million per team, and the Big East says that they would like to test the open market. God forbid, the Big East gets stuck taking a much lower bid from ESPN or another competitor, it will be looked upon as a titanic disaster. At that point, teams might not even need an invite to leave the conference!!

It's a very tricky situation, no doubt about it. Huskymedic just posted a thread talking about the Big East signing some media consultants in preparation for the negotiations, which I think is a good move. We need every possible professional out there that is willing to work with us to be in that room and help guide the conference through the biggest decision it has ever had to make...

That isn't going to happen though. If they walk away from 15 or 16 it's because they know NBC is at least meeting that number.

 

[SubbaBub]

That isn't going to happen though. If they walk away from 15 or 16 it's because they know NBC is at least meeting that number.

Absolutely, if the negotiating team is at all competent. But, I assure you there is a deal that the BE will re-up with ESPN. The BE position is not as solid as some here would have you believe. That deal is likely a little less than my original post ITT.

A bird in the hand, and all that.

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[whaler11]

Absolutely, if the negotiating team is at all competent. But, I assure you there is a deal that the BE will re-up with ESPN. The BE position is not as solid as some here would have you believe. That deal is likely a little less than my original post ITT.

A bird in the hand, and all that.

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Assuming they aren't complete idiots, the only way I can see them resigning with ESPN is if the number ESPN offers is considerably more than the number that NBC whispers in their ear. It's almost impossible to screw up. If it's lower you go to market, if it's higher you take the deal - even the Big East can do that right?

 

[UConnDan97]

Assuming they aren't complete idiots, the only way I can see them resigning with ESPN is if the number ESPN offers is considerably more than the number that NBC whispers in their ear. It's almost impossible to screw up. If it's lower you go to market, if it's higher you take the deal - even the Big East can do that right?

Based on that premise, if we see the Big East and ESPN not finalize a deal by the end of October, we might assume that the Big East's "whispered number" from NBC hasn't been met.

I'll tell you what; I wasn't sure what to make of the rumors of 14+ million per team from NBC, but the more that I read about it (and type about it), the more I'm thinking that it is extremely likely that it will be the case. And if so, that is very good news for the Big East and for UConn!!

 

[SubbaBub]

Assuming they aren't complete idiots, the only way I can see them resigning with ESPN is if the number ESPN offers is considerably more than the number that NBC whispers in their ear. It's almost impossible to screw up. If it's lower you go to market, if it's higher you take the deal - even the Big East can do that right?

Except it is not all about the number, there are other considerations. And yes, they should have an idea about what NBC might be willing to pay, but NBC isn't writing the number down on a piece of paper. They want to win as well, and want to pay as little as possible. They may give a nod as to say they would pay in the realm of the ACC contract, but I doubt they'd go further than that. If they want to assure the BE turns down ESPN, the only way to do that is whisper a number that ESPN will not reasonably match. Since ESPN is richer than NBC, at least when is comes to sports programming, there is no reason to try that. NBC will watch the negotiations, dance around their best deal and hope the BE takes to the market. Once open to all, they will assess the competition and make an offer.

As I said earlier, I wouldn't expect ESPN to participate in a bidding war. Everything they've done since the BE turned them down has been in preparation for the BE to walk. ESPN will deal but, only on their terms. My guess is that the range for all bidders is $14-18M per all sports member so the other conditions will be a big factor in the BE deciding whether to accept any offer. The complexity of the BE membership only weakens the BE position. In my first post, I wanted (20/15/5) and would accept (18/13/5) but what if the BBonlies vote to accept (16/10/6) plus some BB TV goodies. Do the AS and FB onlies have pull together to make it (17/12/5) or turn it down and hit the open market. I doubt it, which is why I think the BE would agree to the ACC per team average with a bump in the BB payout, and a few more games on the big 3 networks on whatever night ESPN wants them. They may even shaft the new FB onlies by cutting the BB money out of their share. I hope I'm wrong and they have finally figured it out. This may be their last chance.

 

[UConnDan97]

Except it is not all about the number, there are other considerations. And yes, they should have an idea about what NBC might be willing to pay, but NBC isn't writing the number down on a piece of paper. They want to win as well, and want to pay as little as possible. They may give a nod as to say they would pay in the realm of the ACC contract, but I doubt they'd go further than that. If they want to assure the BE turns down ESPN, the only way to do that is whisper a number that ESPN will not reasonably match. Since ESPN is richer than NBC, at least when is comes to sports programming, there is no reason to try that. NBC will watch the negotiations, dance around their best deal and hope the BE takes to the market. Once open to all, they will assess the competition and make an offer.

As I said earlier, I wouldn't expect ESPN to participate in a bidding war. Everything they've done since the BE turned them down has been in preparation for the BE to walk. ESPN will deal but, only on their terms. My guess is that the range for all bidders is $14-18M per all sports member so the other conditions will be a big factor in the BE deciding whether to accept any offer. The complexity of the BE membership only weakens the BE position. In my first post, I wanted (20/15/5) and would accept (18/13/5) but what if the BBonlies vote to accept (16/10/6) plus some BB TV goodies. Do the AS and FB onlies have pull together to make it (17/12/5) or turn it down and hit the open market. I doubt it, which is why I think the BE would agree to the ACC per team average with a bump in the BB payout, and a few more games on the big 3 networks on whatever night ESPN wants them. They may even shaft the new FB onlies by cutting the BB money out of their share. I hope I'm wrong and they have finally figured it out. This may be their last chance.

What the basketball-onlies have to understand is that this conference without UConn, Louisville, and Cincy will crush the basketball stature along with it. Yes, they will still have GTown, Nova, Marquette, Temple, Memphis, and ND (maybe). But without the "Big Football Three," the bball is only slightly above average. It would set off a cascade that would relegate them to the bottom of major conferences and just above the A-10.

I think they finally get that, though. I think that's why they finally decided to go for teams like Houston, SMU, and UCF as basketball members. And a 5-6 million dollar payout to most of those basketball schools would be a windfall (I'm thinking of schools like DePaul, St. John's, Seton Hall, and Providence). Bottom line: if someone were to offer the Big East (20/15/5), there would be a danger of the paper incinerating due to the speed of which it gets signed...

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Our latest basketball recruit's AAU Coach on why Kentan Facey chose UConn:

"You’re not going to get better exposure: CBS, Big Monday, ESPN, they’re a Nike Elite team, they have a Hall of Fame coach in Calhoun.”

5 years from now, if we sign with NBC Sports, none of the above will be true except for the Nike deal.

Kids want to be on ESPN. It's cool, it's respected, it's the pulse of America sports. Doesn't matter that I hate it. I'm not an 17 year old kid deciding on where to play college football/basketball. Kids want to be on Top Plays, they want to tell their friends they are on SportsCenter.

"Hey, where's that UConn vs. Boise State game you got Saturday?"

"Uhh, it's on 10pm EST (8pm MT) after bull riding on NBC Sports."

"Ok..."

Fans here are getting way too emotional about being anti-ESPN and putting some sense of revenge by leaving, over the best case future situation for UConn sports. Luckily, (more like thank god) nobody on the Boneyard has anything to do with the tv contract.

I like the two guys they are bringing in as media consultants and the only thing I know about them is that they don't have any prior Big East connections (or so I think).

The less career Big East guys that have their hands in this deal, the better.

 

[whaler11]

Our latest basketball recruit's AAU Coach on why Kentan Facey chose UConn:

"You’re not going to get better exposure: CBS, Big Monday, ESPN, they’re a Nike Elite team, they have a Hall of Fame coach in Calhoun.”

5 years from now, if we sign with NBC Sports, none of the above will be true except for the Nike deal.

Kids want to be on ESPN. It's cool, it's respected, it's the pulse of America sports. Doesn't matter that I hate it. I'm not an 17 year old kid deciding on where to play college football/basketball. Kids want to be on Top Plays, they want to tell their friends they are on SportsCenter.

"Hey, where's that UConn vs. Boise State game you got Saturday?"

"Uhh, it's on 10pm EST (8pm MT) after bull riding on NBC Sports."

"Ok..."

Fans here are getting way too emotional about being anti-ESPN and putting some sense of revenge by leaving, over the best case future situation for UConn sports. Luckily, (more like thank god) nobody on the Boneyard has anything to do with the tv contract.

I like the two guys they are bringing in as media consultants and the only thing I know about them is that they don't have any prior Big East connections (or so I think).

The less career Big East guys that have their hands in this deal, the better.

I pretty much agree with you, but there is a number where you have to take a chance.

As for the Dan's post - I'm sure only Louisville and UConn keep the basketball schools around. Lose either and the hybrid is toast.

 

[CL82]

Our latest basketball recruit's AAU Coach on why Kentan Facey chose UConn:

"You’re not going to get better exposure: CBS, Big Monday, ESPN, they’re a Nike Elite team, they have a Hall of Fame coach in Calhoun.”

5 years from now, if we sign with NBC Sports, none of the above will be true except for the Nike deal.

Kids want to be on ESPN. It's cool, it's respected, it's the pulse of America sports. Doesn't matter that I hate it. I'm not an 17 year old kid deciding on where to play college football/basketball. Kids want to be on Top Plays, they want to tell their friends they are on SportsCenter.

"Hey, where's that UConn vs. Boise State game you got Saturday?"

"Uhh, it's on 10pm EST (8pm MT) after bull riding on NBC Sports."

"Ok..."

Fans here are getting way too emotional about being anti-ESPN and putting some sense of revenge by leaving, over the best case future situation for UConn sports. Luckily, (more like thank god) nobody on the Boneyard has anything to do with the tv contract.

I like the two guys they are bringing in as media consultants and the only thing I know about them is that they don't have any prior Big East connections (or so I think).

The less career Big East guys that have their hands in this deal, the better.

In five years the quote will be:

"You’re not going to get better exposure: NBC prime time, NBCsports channel and they've got a secondary deal with SNY, every game televised, they’re a Nike Elite team, they have a Hall of Fame coach in Calhoun mentoring one of the rising stars in the coaching ranks, Kevin Ollie.”

Kids want to be on national TV. It's cool for the kids (and the parents) to be watching some comedy or drama and see a promo for their sons games.

"Hey, where's that UConn vs. Boise State game you got Saturday?"

"Uhh, it's on 2pm EST right after after Notre Dame game on NBC."

"Okay!"

One of the big mistakes in battle is fighting the last war instead of anticipating the next. It's easier to look backwards, build the Maginot Line and hope for the best. When the Big East was formed ESPN was a start up venture. NBC is a major network expending major funds to re-establish itself in live sports. It's no a fly by night shoo.

It's all good.

 

[lv99]

Our TV deal is a lot more valuable than a lot of people would have you believe. I would actually say our deal will rival the Big 4's deals and be better that the ACC's for a couple of reasons which I will now address.

Firstly, we have teams from all over the country. None of the so-called Big 4 have that. The ACC doesn't have that. You want a market? We got that market. We're all over the place. The sun never sets on the Big East Empire.

Secondly, we have a dynamic conference. The Big 4 is mostly static. It's the same teams year after year. We are always bringing in new blood as teams leave. For advertising purposes, it really helps to be reaching new markets. The so-called Big 4 just give you same markets year after year. We give the advertisers new markets before they wear out the old markets. The advertisers can always lay out the big bucks knowing that we'll be taking new markets into the fold. You just never know where we'll go next. Getting these new markets is a big bonus for the advertisers, and you can rest assured they will take notice.

 

[SAMCRO]

Around late Sept/early oct look for rumors of UL to the B12, UConn and/or RU to the ACC. This, for me, will be the indication that ESPiN is not happy with where the negotiations are going. Yes, I do believe the ESPiN has played a role in the last round of conference realignment and they will continue to gut/devalue the BE before they open the door for NBC to get into their backyard. Just my opinion.

 

[CL82]

Our TV deal is a lot more valuable than a lot of people would have you believe.

I got me my new sig. It's the late night infomercial approach to marketing the conference.

 

[CL82]

Around late Sept/early oct look for rumors of UL to the B12, UConn and/or RU to the ACC. This, for me, will be the indication that ESPiN is not happy with where the negotiations are going. Yes, I do believe the ESPiN has played a role in the last round of conference realignment and they will continue to gut/devalue the BE before they open the door for NBC to get into their backyard. Just my opinion.

Which brings up an interesting question. Say we're looking at the prospect of a slightly better NBC $$ than the ACC deal (unlikely, I know) and we get an ACC offer do we take it? As much as it bothers me to say so, I think that the answer is yes. If that's the case, how can we expect Louisville to stay? So ESPN has the ultimate trump card in this negotiatiation. Take 13 million, or whatever, or we will gut you guys again. Can they get away with it a third time? Probably, if it is done right. Ironically, it probably won't matter to the rest of league as NBC's offer will be based on quantity not quality.

 

[Marty Jackson]

The NBE as far as football will be nothing more than filler for whatever network winds up with the games. There are reasons why the old BE footballl viewership numbers are the worst and that is because the old BE had few compelling teams that people wanted to watch and now that the three top draws of the old BE have or will be moving on those numbers will likely fall even further.

Say NBC gets the NBE TV deal and they put a NBE game on between say two top half of the conference NBE teams. In the same time slot there are games involving top half of the conference teams from one or more of the Power 5 Conferences. You have to be delusional to think that the NBE game will draw any serious viewership.

The NBE game may even get worse ratings than whatever infomercials are on in the same time slot.

Blah Blah Blah... Big East Bad... Blah Blah Blah...
Mom, Make me some meatloaf!!!!!
Blah Blah Blah...
Mom, the meatloaf!!!

 

[UConnDan97]

Blah Blah Blah... Big East Bad... Blah Blah Blah...
Mom, Make me some meatloaf!!!!!
Blah Blah Blah...
Mom, the meatloaf!!!

Great Wedding Crashers reference. Worth at least 20 points...

 

[The Funster]

ATM, I favor a UConn-centric approach. I would have favored a partnership approach with NBC where the NBE agreed for the entire rights in return for NBC (basically) setting up a BE channel. FB and M&W hoops would be the flagship sports but other prominent olympic sports would be featured as well. However, I don't see this approach working for the NBE as presently constituted so I'd rather see UConn pursue the SNY-CT angle. Surely UConn baseball would be a bigger draw than repeats of "Beer Money". If UConn can make SNY-CT work, especially outside CT, it make make UConn more attractive for the inevitable conference invite.

 

[observer]

Blah Blah Blah... Big East Bad... Blah Blah Blah...
Mom, Make me some meatloaf!!!!!
Blah Blah Blah...
Mom, the meatloaf!!!

A truly erudite reply, not.

But then if you have nothing to counter the statements a poster makes then make a joke. The joke will soon be on the NBE when they see that the numbers for their TV deal will not be so good.

 

[The Funster]

Why do you guys keep replying to observer? Put him on ignore and be done with it. Works for me...

 

[huskypantz]

Why do you guys keep replying to observer? Put him on ignore and be done with it. Works for me...

It says a lot about the character of a person when they are willing to spend an extended period of time (daily) instigating and spewing negativity toward an entire fanbase. I hope someday he'll take the time to stare out his parent's basement window and reflect on his life and impact on society.