What's the magic number?

[UConnDan97]

I was thinking about this question as I was drinking some whiskey (which explains the thread choice!), but if you were the Big East conference commissioner during the ESPN 60-day exclusivity period of negotiation, what number on the offer letter would make you say, "Deal!"

The reason that I ask this is because I have heard estimates that range anywhere between 6 million and 14+ million for the Big East, depending mostly on speculation and how many networks are brought to the table. So having said that, what number could ESPN throw out there that would make the Big East sign on the dotted line before the 60 days lapsed? I'm not sure that I have the answer to the question, but I'd love to hear your answers out there...

 

[Hoophound]

Something that exceeds the ACC deal. I think that is the only way you can justify not bothering to test the market.

 

[whaler11]

I was thinking about this question as I was drinking some whiskey (which explains the thread choice!), but if you were the Big East conference commissioner during the ESPN 60-day exclusivity period of negotiation, what number on the offer letter would make you say, "Deal!"

The reason that I ask this is because I have heard estimates that range anywhere between 6 million and 14+ million for the Big East, depending mostly on speculation and how many networks are brought to the table. So having said that, what number could ESPN throw out there that would make the Big East sign on the dotted line before the 60 days lapsed? I'm not sure that I have the answer to the question, but I'd love to hear your answers out there...

I don't see why you'd have one. If their number was substantially higher than before,,, why would their offer go away when the period does. It's not like they would be trying to keep the league from talking to others - a higher offer would mean they really wanted to keep the league from NBC, because even the same number now is a lot more money because there are 5 more net mouths to feed.

 

[Marty Jackson]

If you're ESPN, you have a lot to lose if you come off that amount which was declined by the BE last year. It suggests the league has increased in value despite the defections. And for once, it might suggest the leadership has made some good decisions. none of which will be mentioned by the media.

I think the BE has the leverage here because it is a sellers market, not necessarily because of what they've done to replace the defections (even though I don't think they could have done too much better there either).

Not sure what the ceiling is to sign with ESPN but I don't think they should even respond to anything less than per school $ that was already offered... From that angle, we should be very close to ACC money, if not a little above, simply due to market economics.

 

[UConnDan97]

I don't see why you'd have one. If their number was substantially higher than before,,, why would their offer go away when the period does. It's not like they would be trying to keep the league from talking to others - a higher offer would mean they really wanted to keep the league from NBC, because even the same number now is a lot more money because there are 5 more net mouths to feed.

I suppose what I'm imagining is that ESPN, during this 60-day exclusive negotiation period, would likely wish to avoid a bidding war. In that instance, one could imagine them putting out a "provisional offer" that would no longer be on the table at the end of the 60-day period. This would put pressure on the Big East to choose ESPN without seeing any other network offers.

Otherwise, if ESPN keeps the same offer on the table after the 60-day period that they put on the table during the period, what's the point of the exclusivity period? To me, it seems that the power of the exclusivity period is to put a little pressure on the league in a "Take the deal or it might not be there in the open market period" fashion. I could be wrong about that, but that is my take on the leverage of the 60-day window for ESPN...

 

[UConnDan97]

I guess I should throw out my guess for the "magic number" also. Depending on how confident Bailey and Carparelli are about the sincerity of a NBC offer reaching 14 million per school for full members, I'm guessing that 15 million will seal the deal. A 15 million offer does a few things:

1) It validates the Big East's decision to turn down the previous offer to the tune of an extra 4 million per team (the original offer was reported to be 11 million per team). The Big East would more than save face, and it would again be able to argue the term "Big 6" instead of "Big 5" (in fact, that might be part of the deal...for ESPN to actively promote the Big East again as being on the big stage).

2) It surpasses a speculative "high-end" estimate from the main competitive bid (NBC).

3) It puts the Big East within arms length of the ACC deal (17 million per team) as well as the Big12 deal (20 million per team), and that should seriously help to stabilize the membership of the league.

That's my take on it, at least. In my opinion, if ESPN offers something north of that number, I think this thing doesn't make it to the open market...

 

[coachcap]

Just a question. Say Dan is right & ESPN puts out the "provisional offer" & the carpet is pulled out once the exclusivity period is over. If the Big East goes to open negotiations, what is the visibility factor of NBC worth? Let me explain this. Say ESPN offers 15.5 million per year for all sports, 10.5 million for football only, & 5 Million for basketball only. If NBC came in at 2 million less for football per year, but guaranteed timeslots sandwiching the Notre Dame game on the Peacock with all other conference games on NBCSN or Comcast regional (formerly Fox Regional, formerly Sportschannel), is the visibility of the Peacock worth the credit of 2 Million?

 

[CTMike]

Just a question. Say Dan is right & ESPN puts out the "provisional offer" & the carpet is pulled out once the exclusivity period is over. If the Big East goes to open negotiations, what is the visibility factor of NBC worth? Let me explain this. Say ESPN offers 15.5 million per year for all sports, 10.5 million for football only, & 5 Million for basketball only. If NBC came in at 2 million less for football per year, but guaranteed timeslots sandwiching the Notre Dame game on the Peacock with all other conference games on NBCSN or Comcast regional (formerly Fox Regional, formerly Sportschannel), is the visibility of the Peacock worth the credit of 2 Million?

A really good question.

 

[UConnDan97]

Just a question. Say Dan is right & ESPN puts out the "provisional offer" & the carpet is pulled out once the exclusivity period is over. If the Big East goes to open negotiations, what is the visibility factor of NBC worth? Let me explain this. Say ESPN offers 15.5 million per year for all sports, 10.5 million for football only, & 5 Million for basketball only. If NBC came in at 2 million less for football per year, but guaranteed timeslots sandwiching the Notre Dame game on the Peacock with all other conference games on NBCSN or Comcast regional (formerly Fox Regional, formerly Sportschannel), is the visibility of the Peacock worth the credit of 2 Million?

That's certainly a question that I've been weighing. Carparelli came out and said, “Whoever our future television partner is, it’s important to us that they brand the conference in the appropriate way and that they help promote this league and that we’re true partners.”

http://uoflcardgame.com/big-east-football-could-soar-with-new-tv-deal/32715/

That's why I think that the ESPN offer will need to beat the speculated 14 million number. I think that the Big East will also need some assurances that ESPN will actively promote the league as a "Big 6" instead of some of their past shenanigans (like when they put up that "Big Least?" graphic).

Addendum: Just in case anyone accuses me of "making it up": http://www.bigeastcoastbias.com/2012/7/9/3147978/ill-never-forgive-you-espn-never

 

[ctchamps]

That's certainly a question that I've been weighing. Carparelli came out and said, “Whoever our future television partner is, it’s important to us that they brand the conference in the appropriate way and that they help promote this league and that we’re true partners.”

http://uoflcardgame.com/big-east-football-could-soar-with-new-tv-deal/32715/

That's why I think that the ESPN offer will need to beat the speculated 14 million number. I think that the Big East will also need some assurances that ESPN will actively promote the league as a "Big 6" instead of some of their past shenanigans (like when they put up that "Big Least?" graphic).

Addendum: Just in case anyone accuses me of "making it up": http://www.bigeastcoastbias.com/2012/7/9/3147978/ill-never-forgive-you-espn-never

Good arguments. ESPN has to factor one other thing. If NBC goes all in for the BE and "overpays" the conference and promotes the conference considerably, what type of reaction will this promote among the conferences already in ESPN's stables? Perceptions are stronger concerning what we don't have than what we do have.

NBC has a value in starting a bidding war for the BE in only that they can create tension within the ranks of ESPN's other conferences which causes them to demand more. This has a whole series of advantages for NBC relative to ESPN including reducing ESPN's profits and therefore reducing their relative strength for future bidding for sports venues. It also has the possibility that conferences might start to seek out other networks to increase the visibility of their conference which cannot take place within ESPN considering all their content. ESPN has to be factoring whether they want to open this can of worms.

Conferences that have established their own networks have to weigh the value of being exclusive to the value the content of their programming has with the addition of the programming of other conferences affords them.

2011-2012 Ratings:​

Here are the average football viewership totals by conference according to Nielsen:​

1. SEC – 4,447,000​

2. Big Ten – 3,267,000​

3. ACC – 2,650,000​

4. Big 12 – 2,347,000​

5. Pac-12 – 2,108,000​

6. Big East – 1,884,000​

Here are the average basketball viewership totals by conference according to Nielsen:​

1. Big Ten – 1,496,000​

2. ACC – 1,247,000​

3. SEC – 1,222,000​

4. Big 12 – 1,069,000​

5. Big East – 1,049,000​

6. Pac-12 – 783,000​

www.eagleoutsider.

In this chart we see the advantage for the Pac 12 to maximize its brand name with other conferences and the advantage of the Big Ten to have a hybrid model of going on its own and joining other content.

ESPN does not want other big players or wants to minimize other big players to maintain as much "good" content as possible as leverage against cable companies. Most people pay a premium for ESPN just to have the option of watching live the small percentage of ESPN's entire content they are interested in. If that content starts fragmenting, ESPN will have a more difficult time getting the premium they are commanding.

 

[SubbaBub]

You guys are low balling yourselves. To avoid entering the market, I need the following:

-$20M per all sports member $15m per FB only minimum and 5M minimum for BB only.

- One guaranteed national or semi-national BE Saturday time slot per week on ABC, ESPN, or ESPN2

- Big Monday 7pm.

- Veto power over assigning BE FB games Thursday or Friday nights.

- Two Gameday broadcasts per FB Seasons from BE game sites at least one at a BE home game.

- Assistance in developing an attractive Bowl line up.

- Regional broadcasts of BE games in BE home markets. None of this ESPNU or ESPN3 B.S. The U is fine for out of market conference games, but Uconn games in CT should be on ESPN2 OR better, as should Boise games in Boise, otherwise sell the rights to the local outlet.

- ESPN or its representatives will not engage in discussions with representatives of other conferences involving BE programs without the express permission of the BE conference. In return, the BE will release ESPN from all liability from any tampering claims that may involve its actions prior to the signing of this agreement.

Those are the major points, there are minor details that need to be included, that I can't think of right now.

Sent from my MB860 using Tapatalk 2

 

[weyuo]

That's the question I'd be asking. Can NBC guarantee UConn football on Saturday afternoons/evenings vs Thursday and Friday nights on ESPN? Can either network match the money the ACC is getting per school? How will either network promote Big East football?

 

[UConnDan97]

You guys are low balling yourselves. To avoid entering the market, I need the following:

-$20M per all sports member $15m per FB only minimum and 5M minimum for BB only.

- One guaranteed national or semi-national BE Saturday time slot per week on ABC, ESPN, or ESPN2

- Big Monday 7pm.

- Veto power over assigning BE FB games Thursday or Friday nights.

- Two Gameday broadcasts per FB Seasons from BE game sites at least one at a BE home game.

- Assistance in developing an attractive Bowl line up.

- Regional broadcasts of BE games in BE home markets. None of this ESPNU or ESPN3 B.S. The U is fine for out of market conference games, but Uconn games in CT should be on ESPN2 OR better, as should Boise games in Boise, otherwise sell the rights to the local outlet.

- ESPN or its representatives will not engage in discussions with representatives of other conferences involving BE programs without the express permission of the BE conference. In return, the BE will release ESPN from all liability from any tampering claims that may involve its actions prior to the signing of this agreement.

Those are the major points, there are minor details that need to be included, that I can't think of right now.

Sent from my MB860 using Tapatalk 2

You have to remember that the question was not phrased as to what I would want or to what the best scenario for the Big East would be. The question was phrased as what type of deal would the Big East forego the open market for? What deal would make the Big East say, "Forget about finding out what NBC or FOX has to offer 60 days from now; we'll take what ESPN's selling..."?

 

[CL82]

That's certainly a question that I've been weighing. Carparelli came out and said, “Whoever our future television partner is, it’s important to us that they brand the conference in the appropriate way and that they help promote this league and that we’re true partners.”

This.

For me there are three components that would be needed in order to sign a deal. First, we'd need a deal that is, at least arguably, better than the ACC deal. So a lower average number could be okay, if the up front money was better, or if 3rd tier rights were excluded. We'd also need a very specific promtion agreement, that keeps ESPN from disparaging the league, either by game timeslot or by the comments of their talking heads. Finally, we'd need a deal that would allow us to renegotiate if the ACC gets a new deal.

Absent that, I think NBC is better choice. Of course if you made any one element disproportionately large (20M deal, guaranteed noon Saturday game plus one other Saturday game, etc.) then you'd of course have to consider it but that obviously even less likely to happen than the 3 conditions I listed.

ESPN has shown consistent bad faith in it's dealings with the league. Absent guarantees to prevent more of the same, the BE should move on.

 

[RS9999X]

$12 million plus a coherent Tier 3 commitment with SNY for a CT channel with additional revenues plus a Big East Conference Network Game Archive (all games on demand) for streaming plus the commitment for a live streaming package available a la carte to non-cable subscribers through XBox, Smart TVs etc.

Brand building stuff and national exposure as mentioned by others/

I think NBC is in a better position to do more with the BE if it wants to.

 

[SubbaBub]

You have to remember that the question was not phrased as to what I would want or to what the best scenario for the Big East would be. The question was phrased as what type of deal would the Big East forego the open market for? What deal would make the Big East say, "Forget about finding out what NBC or FOX has to offer 60 days from now; we'll take what ESPN's selling..."?

I understood the question. That's what I would want to sign the deal during the exclusion phase. I'd personally rather stay with ESPN, but only under the right deal. If it goes to the open market, I would expect around $17M, but anything less than 15M is a failure that will destroy the league. I don't like what NBC has done with it's NHL contract. You'd think there are only four teams Rangers, Blackhawks, Philly, and Boston. If we do go with NBC, I don't see a fair distribution of exposure (i.e. based on performance) I see a lot of Boise OOC, Louisville, and Rutgers.

 

[UConnDan97]

$12 million plus a coherent Tier 3 commitment with SNY for a CT channel with additional revenues plus a Big East Conference Network Game Archive (all games on demand) for streaming plus the commitment for a live streaming package available a la carte to non-cable subscribers through XBox, Smart TVs etc.

Brand building stuff and national exposure as mentioned by others/

I think NBC is in a better position to do more with the BE if it wants to.

Do you think they would immediately sign on the dotted line for 12 mil + Tier 3? As you said yourself, NBC might be in a better position to put together a better contract than that. I'm not sure the Big East signs your contract before the 60 days are up (unless the NBC talk is a smoke-screen, of course).

 

[UConnDan97]

I understood the question. That's what I would want to sign the deal during the exclusion phase. I'd personally rather stay with ESPN, but only under the right deal. If it goes to the open market, I would expect around $17M, but anything less than 15M is a failure that will destroy the league. I don't like what NBC has done with it's NHL contract. You'd think there are only four teams Rangers, Blackhawks, Philly, and Boston. If we do go with NBC, I don't see a fair distribution of exposure (i.e. based on performance) I see a lot of Boise OOC, Louisville, and Rutgers.

I hear ya, but is 15 million really a failure?? I think that walking away with a 15 million dollar contract for the Big East, regardless of supplier, will be viewed as an absolute success...

 

[observer]

The NBE as far as football will be nothing more than filler for whatever network winds up with the games. There are reasons why the old BE footballl viewership numbers are the worst and that is because the old BE had few compelling teams that people wanted to watch and now that the three top draws of the old BE have or will be moving on those numbers will likely fall even further.

Say NBC gets the NBE TV deal and they put a NBE game on between say two top half of the conference NBE teams. In the same time slot there are games involving top half of the conference teams from one or more of the Power 5 Conferences. You have to be delusional to think that the NBE game will draw any serious viewership.

The NBE game may even get worse ratings than whatever infomercials are on in the same time slot.

 

[whaler11]

I guess I should throw out my guess for the "magic number" also. Depending on how confident Bailey and Carparelli are about the sincerity of a NBC offer reaching 14 million per school for full members, I'm guessing that 15 million will seal the deal. A 15 million offer does a few things:

1) It validates the Big East's decision to turn down the previous offer to the tune of an extra 4 million per team (the original offer was reported to be 11 million per team). The Big East would more than save face, and it would again be able to argue the term "Big 6" instead of "Big 5" (in fact, that might be part of the deal...for ESPN to actively promote the Big East again as being on the big stage).

2) It surpasses a speculative "high-end" estimate from the main competitive bid (NBC).

3) It puts the Big East within arms length of the ACC deal (17 million per team) as well as the Big12 deal (20 million per team), and that should seriously help to stabilize the membership of the league.

That's my take on it, at least. In my opinion, if ESPN offers something north of that number, I think this thing doesn't make it to the open market...

I don't see why you'd take 15 without going to market unless you had a really good idea that NBC wouldn't beat it.

I have no doubt the Big East will have a round number from NBC and won't have to make that call blind anyway.

 

[UConnDan97]

I don't see why you'd take 15 without going to market unless you had a really good idea that NBC wouldn't beat it.

I have no doubt the Big East will have a round number from NBC and won't have to make that call blind anyway.

I think you're right that the Big East already has a round number in mind from NBC (and perhaps from FOX, too). I guess the question is how much the Big East believes that NBC will stretch themselves to obtain the conference and whether or not the conference truly wants to switch partners from ESPN to NBC.

 

[SubbaBub]

I hear ya, but is 15 million really a failure?? I think that walking away with a 15 million dollar contract for the Big East, regardless of supplier, will be viewed as an absolute success...

Like it or not, while the value of the leagues perception is worth more than a few extra dollars, a large part of that perception is the value of the contract com pared with the other leagues. While two years ago, a deal equal to the ACC's would have been fine, the explosion in the value of the other leagues has dwarfed the ACC number (even the renegotiated number.)

The narrative while be one of the following:

BE inks deal roughly equal to ACC: The BE has maintained it seat at the big boy table but lags behind the other Big Four and without a clear path to the big money bowls will have difficulting maintaining its position unless a program or two can break through.

BE inks deal less than ACC: Clearly the market has spoken, we are down to Five (four and a half) big time football conferences. While the BE remains ahead of the lower level conferences, it's value is clearly tied to basketball. We'll see if that continues to carry the BE. In football, access to the playoffs will be difficult and almost certainly the BE champion to be undefeated. So much for Boise St. improving its access to the biggest games, they are likely questioning their decision to jump to the BE, but I am sure the $$ makes them feel a bit better.

BE inks a deal for more than the ACC with ESPN: Clearly ESPN valued BE BB as an anchor for it's midweek programming slate and was desparate to keep NBC out of the CFB business. It remains to be seen if the BE will ever consistently compete for the National Championship in FB, but reports of the leagues demise were surely mistaken. Now they will have to prove it on the field.

BE inks a deal for more than the ACC with NBC or Fox: The BE finally catches a break. It's decision to test the open market has secured the leagues FB future for while. They will have the opportunity to prove themselves on the field, but it remains to be seen if the BE will ever consistently compete for the National Championship in FB, but reports of the leagues demise were surely mistaken. For NBC, this gives them a foot in the door for CFB with ND and the BE. NBC will need to hope that the BE can improve it's on the field product. If it can, then the large BE media markets may result in a home run for NBC, but that would requires a big upgrade for most of these program. At minimum, its NBCSports property now has programming that someone might actually watch, (sorry NHL.)

So this contract is kind of a big deal. $15M is a loser.

 

[UConnDan97]

The NBE as far as football will be nothing more than filler for whatever network winds up with the games. There are reasons why the old BE footballl viewership numbers are the worst and that is because the old BE had few compelling teams that people wanted to watch and now that the three top draws of the old BE have or will be moving on those numbers will likely fall even further.

Say NBC gets the NBE TV deal and they put a NBE game on between say two top half of the conference NBE teams. In the same time slot there are games involving top half of the conference teams from one or more of the Power 5 Conferences. You have to be delusional to think that the NBE game will draw any serious viewership.

The NBE game may even get worse ratings than whatever infomercials are on in the same time slot.

So in your view, your magic number is....oh, yeah, I think you forgot that part of the thread, huh? Why do you continually post your crap? Find another thread, or perhaps even another board.

By the way, I saw your video on YouTube. Solid stuff...

 

[UConnDan97]

Like it or not, while the value of the leagues perception is worth more than a few extra dollars, a large part of that perception is the value of the contract com pared with the other leagues. While two years ago, a deal equal to the ACC's would have been fine, the explosion in the value of the other leagues has dwarfed the ACC number (even the renegotiated number.)

The narrative while be one of the following:

BE inks deal roughly equal to ACC: The BE has maintained it seat at the big boy table but lags behind the other Big Four and without a clear path to the big money bowls will have difficulting maintaining its position unless a program or two can break through.

BE inks deal less than ACC: Clearly the market has spoken, we are down to Five (four and a half) big time football conferences. While the BE remains ahead of the lower level conferences, it's value is clearly tied to basketball. We'll see if that continues to carry the BE. In football, access to the playoffs will be difficult and almost certainly the BE champion to be undefeated. So much for Boise St. improving its access to the biggest games, they are likely questioning their decision to jump to the BE, but I am sure the $$ makes them feel a bit better.

BE inks a deal for more than the ACC with ESPN: Clearly ESPN valued BE BB as an anchor for it's midweek programming slate and was desparate to keep NBC out of the CFB business. It remains to be seen if the BE will ever consistently compete for the National Championship in FB, but reports of the leagues demise were surely mistaken. Now they will have to prove it on the field.

BE inks a deal for more than the ACC with NBC or Fox: The BE finally catches a break. It's decision to test the open market has secured the leagues FB future for while. They will have the opportunity to prove themselves on the field, but it remains to be seen if the BE will ever consistently compete for the National Championship in FB, but reports of the leagues demise were surely mistaken. For NBC, this gives them a foot in the door for CFB with ND and the BE. NBC will need to hope that the BE can improve it's on the field product. If it can, then the large BE media markets may result in a home run for NBC, but that would requires a big upgrade for most of these program. At minimum, its NBCSports property now has programming that someone might actually watch, (sorry NHL.)

So this contract is kind of a big deal. $15M is a loser.

I can respect that. However, I think the thing that I should add to the discussion is the importance of landing the BE champion in one of the bigger bowls, as you've alluded to. If ESPN were willing to leverage its clout in order to secure a spot in the big bowls along with 15 mil, I don't think it's a failure. I do see your point in terms of being on the outside looking in with almost as much money; how long is that sustainable. It's a good point.

 

[whaler11]

I would be shocked if the Big East signed in the exclusive period. Really makes no sense for either party. ESPN isn't going to give them ACC money and no reason to sign unless it's ACC money. The Big East went this far, may as well get out in open seas.