What will the expansion rumor be this week?

[SAMCRO]

Anyone care to make a guess, or will it be quiet mode for a while?

Could it be more ND & UT to the B1G,
or OU declares if they're still going steady with the B12,
or more WVU or Mizzou to the $EC,
or more P12 denials of wanting to expand further (which contradicts what they were saying less than a month ago - this tells me they really do want to add 2-4 more from the B12 but do not want to appear to have initiated any of the moves),
or mergers of either the BE/B12 or BE/ACC,
or will there be something brand new to get the talking heads talking and twittering?

 

[TouchdownHusky]

The sooner the Big East gets absorbed into the ACC the better. As a stand alone conference they are embarrassing themselves with their OOC records again this season.

 

[uc1974]

Ruthenia to Hungary, Kurils to Japan. Seriously, maybe nothing for a while.

 

[tduconn]

Agree with TDHUSKY: I don't see any BCS teams running to the BE to be part of a super conference with the way the conference has played last year and so far this year. Its gotten to the point where Pitt and Syracuse struggle to beat the old Yankee Conference teams. Forget about Louisville. RU, and UConn performance against BCS schools. Thank God for WVU and USF!

Hopefully ACC will pick up the BE when mega conferences are "solidified". It would be good all around for UConn soccer, baseball, football and basketball.

 

[UConnSportsGuy]

The ACC has not done any better than the Big East so far this year. One of their teams lost to a D1-AA school (Richmond). They have lost to the bottom teams from the other BCS conferences (Syracuse, Northwestern), they have lost to non-BCS schools (BC losing by 27 points to UCF), and they have had some of their top teams barely beat some very bad teams (VT and Clemson with single digit wins squeeked out against the likes of East Carolina and Wofford).

So while the Big East had a bad 2nd weekend, the ACC has just as bad of a start. It is just fortunate for them that they don't get the scrutiny that the Big East gets and they get the 'partner' treatment from ESPN and the talking heads. As far as on-field performance, the ACC has been pretty horrible.

 

[hardcorehusky]

We have the TV contract coming up- teams will be looking for the newest, safest and most lucrative package they can find. All the doubters will be exposed. GO BIG EAST!!

 

[Eddy Hall]

http://texas.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1263940... OU & OSU reportedly to apply for Pac 12/14/16 membership by the end of the month. This may set the dominoes into motion.

 

[brasssbonanzaa]

An interesting point to this story, it was reported that UT and OU leaders met yesterday. What's interesting is that this was NOT reported by Chip Brown, but by another Austin newspaper. I took that to mean that the UT officials did not want anyone to explicitly know about the meeting, at least beforehand, or else Brown would've reported on it. The fact that he's reporting this story after the meeting signals that UT did not come away happy with the meeting, and leaked that story to Brown because either OU is planning to apply, and UT wants to undercut their application by pinning the story on Larry Scott's comments this past week that he's anti-expansion, or that UT is trying to undercut OU by exaggerating the discussion that took place and painting them as a disloyal member of the conference, potentially opening them to lawsuits by other members, read: Baylor.

 

[SAMCRO]

Slive came out with a comment today that the SEC is already working on 13 team conference schedule for 2012-13 athletic seasons WHEN Texas A&M joins the SEC.

As mentioned above, OU and OSU are allegedly moving closer to the P12, we'll see.

Mizzou's Board or Regents had a board meeting scheduled for today (or tomorrow, not sure).

That's all I've got from today.

 

[junglehusky]

Well... Katz and Schad at ESPN are reporting that OU has not made up its mind yet, but might decide in 3 weeks. And that Texas would like to keep the B12-2-1 intact (duh...LHN) but would seek alternatives if OU / others leave. Sounds like no news on the Baylor front.

 

[RS9999X]

I think the read ---an application by the end of the month--is correct

Where it goes from there is anyone's guess.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Anyone care to make a guess, or will it be quiet mode for a while?

Could it be more ND & UT to the B1G,
or OU declares if they're still going steady with the B12,
or more WVU or Mizzou to the $EC,
or more P12 denials of wanting to expand further (which contradicts what they were saying less than a month ago - this tells me they really do want to add 2-4 more from the B12 but do not want to appear to have initiated any of the moves),
or mergers of either the BE/B12 or BE/ACC,
or will there be something brand new to get the talking heads talking and twittering?

I think the conference commissioners are driving this more than anyone, because they see themselves building empires. The university presidents do not want this because it is basically an abdication of control over their athletic departments and they do not want to get into litigation with other universities. The San Jose paper had a story recently that the PAC 12 presidents were unanimous against additional expansion unless it happened defensively. The SEC pushed through Texas A&M on a 10-2 vote and that required a full release by all affected parties. Good luck with that.

The Pac 12 and B1G do not want Oklahoma without Texas.

The business case does not exist for just adding random games to a contract and getting more money.

 

[Skiblets]

OU is gone with or without Texas. So is Okie St. Big 12 is toast. ESPN is trying to figure out how to recoup their Longhorn Network investment. Big East will survive.

 

[junglehusky]

FSU preparing for realignment possibilities, such as moving to SEC or welcoming Texas into ACC

In short: they're forming a committee.


Texas has three options

"There's nothing Texas could have offered Oklahoma that would have changed their mind. They were set on leaving the Big 12 before Texas got there," a well-placed source at a Big 12 school said, adding that Sunday's meeting had a very friendly and cooperative tone. "The Big 12's done. Oklahoma wasn't open to creating Big 12 stability."

 

[nelsonmuntz]

OU is gone with or without Texas. So is Okie St. Big 12 is toast. ESPN is trying to figure out how to recoup their Longhorn Network investment. Big East will survive.

There is NO WAY the state of Oklahoma brings an incremental $45 million per year to the Pac 12, which is what it would take for the Pac 12 just to break even on the deal. Now maybe all 4 of the Big 12 south schools could bring an extra $100 million with Texas, but unless that is on the table, there will not be expansion. What Oklahoma wants to do is the less important half of the equation. Why would the Pac 12 take on the legal liability and revenue dilution to add Oklahoma and Oklahoma State?

 

[FDNY99]

How off the mark would an 18 team super conference made up of the 9 Big East football schools (including TCU) and the 9 present remaining Big 12 schools be? Break the league into 2 divisions geographically for all sports, with cross over non division games counting towards tie breakers in division. For football this would be 8 division games, 2-3 out of division games, 1-2 non-conference games (personally I would like to see 3 out of division games and 1 non-conference game). Basketball wise (both men's and women's) this is a VERY strong conference...especially men's hoops with us, Syracuse, WVU, Louisville, Pitt, Kansas, and Texas. Football wise it is a VERY strong conference that keeps a TON of traditional rivalries. That is the kind of conference that can demand good tv money in equal shares.

 

[SAMCRO]

Why on earth would any conference want to get in bed with Texas and the LHN? It may sound good now, may make you more $$ now, but in the end it will end the same way the B12 is ending. UT is the reason 3 teams have left the B12, and the reason 2 more are flirting with the P12. ACC, B1G, SEC, P12 all need to take a long hard look before making any decisions that may include UT in their conference. Also interesting watching ESPN's thumb print, quietly, all over a lot of these conversations. I could see the ACC offering some type of deal with UT included, provided they can re-negotiate their own TV deal w/ ESPN ASAP. Money is driving the bus. Always has, always will.

 

[FDNY99]

It will be interesting to see if the LHN gets Texas boxed out of the whole realignment issue. The only reason I can see the ACC opening their arms to Texas is for the reason you gave Samcro...ESPN. Maybe DeLoss Dodds should find a conference that will take his school in olympic sports like the BE did for ND.

 

[businesslawyer]

I think the conference commissioners are driving this more than anyone, because they see themselves building empires. The university presidents do not want this because it is basically an abdication of control over their athletic departments and they do not want to get into litigation with other universities. The San Jose paper had a story recently that the PAC 12 presidents were unanimous against additional expansion unless it happened defensively. The SEC pushed through Texas A&M on a 10-2 vote and that required a full release by all affected parties. Good luck with that.

The Pac 12 and B1G do not want Oklahoma without Texas.

The business case does not exist for just adding random games to a contract and getting more money.

Waylon's first sentence is probably the key to the whole thing. Any non-profit tends to be run by its executive director (in this case commissioner) for the benefit of the staff in headquarters. You have to grow so you can hire more employees and justify higher salaries. Whether or not the activity is in the best interests of the non-profits members or beneficiaires.

It's true for the American Bar Association. It's true for hospitals. It's true for member based lobbying groups. There is no reason to think it wouldn't be true with college conferences. Unless and until the Presidents stand up and scream "no more" this will continue.

 

[Skiblets]

There is NO WAY the state of Oklahoma brings an incremental $45 million per year to the Pac 12, which is what it would take for the Pac 12 just to break even on the deal. Now maybe all 4 of the Big 12 south schools could bring an extra $100 million with Texas, but unless that is on the table, there will not be expansion. What Oklahoma wants to do is the less important half of the equation. Why would the Pac 12 take on the legal liability and revenue dilution to add Oklahoma and Oklahoma State?

The legal liability is a non-starter. Schools are voluntary members of conferences and have terms for entry and exit.

We saw how well the Big East lawsuit went when Miami, VT and the BCU Golden Eagles left. Think Baylor's will probably go as well.

 

[SAMCRO]

It will be interesting to see if the LHN gets Texas boxed out of the whole realignment issue. The only reason I can see the ACC opening their arms to Texas is for the reason you gave Samcro...ESPN. Maybe DeLoss Dodds should find a conference that will take his school in olympic sports like the BE did for ND.

I'm just waiting for the day college football breaks away from the NCAA, and we have the ESPN Midwest/Atlantic Conferences, CBS South Conference, Fox West/Southwest Conferences

 

[FDNY99]

I definitely think ESPN missed the mark with the LHN. Nobody wants to carry it, and they are on the hook for the cash...wait let's get the ACC to take Texas we will give them some extra cash to sweeten the pot.

 

[mattp]

i can't imagine the PAC12 taking Texas unless the LHN is neutered and i think Texas wants to see where the LHN takes them before they consider doing that. if we're operating under the assumption that OK would only go if they brought OKSt, which i think is reasonable since OKSt would be in a world of trouble otherwise, than the only way they could make it attractive enough for the PAC12 to take them is if they bring in Texas as well. i think Texas knows this so they should be able to bluff their through this and things will stand pat. the BIG 12-2-aTm is still a viable BCS conference.

 

[gars44]

mattp, no one can compete against the LHN. You can't pay the same money for your coach, for your facilities, your trips, your player amenities. Everyone wants out the the B12 for a reason. I mean, why does everyone want out so bad? The people who know TX best want nothing to do with them. It's a strong indictment. It's never a good thing when your brothers and sisters don't like you. The B12 is in Okie's hands. If they get out it's over. And I think they want out. I'd like to see TX to the ACC. That would be funny indeed. Be careful what you wish for.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Waylon's first sentence is probably the key to the whole thing. Any non-profit tends to be run by its executive director (in this case commissioner) for the benefit of the staff in headquarters. You have to grow so you can hire more employees and justify higher salaries. Whether or not the activity is in the best interests of the non-profits members or beneficiaires.

It's true for the American Bar Association. It's true for hospitals. It's true for member based lobbying groups. There is no reason to think it wouldn't be true with college conferences. Unless and until the Presidents stand up and scream "no more" this will continue.

It is the same with for-profit entities. About 60-70% of public company/public company M&A ends up not working out (easiest way to get a doctorate in Finance is to do a research paper on this phenomenon. There are hundreds of them out there). The combined company is worth less than the two independent companies were over the long term. So why do it? CEO's want to run bigger companies because that means more power and more money for them.

There are FOUR people in the entire country that are adamantly in favor of expansion: Jim Delaney, Larry Scott, Mike Slive, and John Swofford. They are the likely surviving conference commissioners in any consolidation, and running a corporation generating $400 million a year (which is what the conferences will be post expansion) deserves a very large paycheck. In my opinion, these 4 are driving 90% of the expansion activity. Destabilizing the Big 12 was child's play. Big companies do that to potential targets all the time. Once the genie escapes, it is very hard to get it back into the bottle. Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas and Kansas State are trying their hardest though.

Pretty much everyone else is on the fence or against expansion, but that doesn't mean it won't happen. FSU's announcement is a big deal, because it means cracks are forming in the ACC wall. For the Big 12 to stick together, everyone had to believe that expansion would stop if the Big 12 held. If another league is getting shaky, it will enable the Pac 12 to put enormous pressure on Texas to join or risk getting left out.

ESPN and CBS will insist on Florida State as the 14th and likely Georgia Tech as #15 for the SEC. Deeper market penetration in big markets is better then broader market penetration most of the time. I don't know who #16 would be. I think this is a suboptimal outcome for everyone but the conference commissioners. Hopefully the presidents can hold it together.