I did forget a few of those wins. You are touting wins against 8 seeds, but point taken.
This is a weird year. Lots of cancelled games. Given the abbreviated OOC, I'm not sure there's all that much information we can draw from it. The Kansas that lost to Gonzaga looks far different than the team we see now. And Alabama won their conference and their conference tournament. They were a clear 2-seed.
If Bouk didn't get hurt at all, our team would probably be on the 3/4 line, so I agree with you in part. We'd probably have gotten ourselves to the 5 if we had beaten Creighton this past weekend. Oh well. We'll be underdogs if we beat Maryland (and they beat Iona!), but the line will look closer to something like a 7/10 matchup than a 2/7 if it happens.