What is going to happen to the smaller private institutions in the upcoming realignment landscape?

[History Geek]

Before you say I don’t care, maybe some of us do

I posted this in the Non-Key Tweets thread but thought it deserved a thread of its own. I’m a UConn#1/Wake#2 guy — I went to UConn, daughter went to Wake. I think UConn is better positioned now for what is coming than the Deacs. WF is the smallest of the current P5, with a undergrad count of about 5500. That, and being the number #4 in North Carolina, is going to make it an uphill battle. Having VA Tech and Clemson relatively close by doesn’t help. What they have going for them is a national alumni footprint that is focused from NC up through the northeast corridor. BC, by comparison, has about 9500 undergrads but alumni base is more regional/parochial. We will see, but I am not optimistic.

I wonder if there is room for a tier below for the Wake/ BC/ Duke (6800 undergrads)/ Vandy (7100 undergrads/ Northwestern (9000? undergrads)/ etc to say F this arms race — we can exist athletically in a tier below and still maintain our academic prestige? Might be a tough sell for Duke basketball traditionalists though.

 

[NowInStorrs]

I mean that's basically what the Ivy League schools have done.

No reason other schools can't go to smaller conferences or form their own.

 

[BlueandOG]

Probably nothing bad will happen. It’s tough to boot a school out of a P5 conference.

 

[JMick]

Probably nothing bad will happen. It’s tough to boot a school out of a P5 conference.

Well if your conference ceases to exist you still need a home...

 

[Skiblets]

Beat me to it Jman!

 

[BullDawg]

Before you say I don’t care, maybe some of us do

I posted this in the Non-Key Tweets thread but thought it deserved a thread of its own. I’m a UConn#1/Wake#2 guy — I went to UConn, daughter went to Wake. I think UConn is better positioned now for what is coming than the Deacs. WF is the smallest of the current P5, with a undergrad count of about 5500. That, and being the number #4 in North Carolina, is going to make it an uphill battle. Having VA Tech and Clemson relatively close by doesn’t help. What they have going for them is a national alumni footprint that is focused from NC up through the northeast corridor. BC, by comparison, has about 9500 undergrads but alumni base is more regional/parochial. We will see, but I am not optimistic.

I wonder if there is room for a tier below for the Wake/ BC/ Duke (6800 undergrads)/ Vandy (7100 undergrads/ Northwestern (9000? undergrads)/ etc to say F this arms race — we can exist athletically in a tier below and still maintain our academic prestige? Might be a tough sell for Duke basketball traditionalists though.

I see no scenario in which Vandy leaves the SEC or Northwestern leaves the Big 10. I appreciate your concern for Wake if the ACC implodes in the future.

 

[History Geek]

I see no scenario in which Vandy leaves the SEC or Northwestern leaves the Big 10. I appreciate your concern for Wake if the ACC implodes in the future.

Maybe Vandy/Northwestern get pushed out?

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I see no scenario in which Vandy leaves the SEC or Northwestern leaves the Big 10. I appreciate your concern for Wake if the ACC implodes in the future.

So in the last couple of years, college athletics have been simultaneously hit with the Alston case (NIL) and the Transfer Portal, its broadcast partners are being hit with a seismic transition of their entire revenue stream they depend on to pay the colleges, and the "Demographic Cliff" that university Presidents have been warning about for a decade arrived early with more kids, and men in particular, choosing not to attend college even before each class size was going to start shrinking. And you are arguing that there is no scenario under which a certain kind of conference realignment might happen, even though the current conference model is dependent on a business environment that no longer exists.

I think ANYTHING is possible in college athletics in the next 5 to 10 years.

 

[BullDawg]

Maybe Vandy/Northwestern get pushed out?

That would surprise me very much. Vandy has been in the SEC since its formation in 1933. Vandy and UGA played their first football game against each other in 1893. Although Vandy is very different from other SEC schools, it is very entrenched in the SEC.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Before you say I don’t care, maybe some of us do

I posted this in the Non-Key Tweets thread but thought it deserved a thread of its own. I’m a UConn#1/Wake#2 guy — I went to UConn, daughter went to Wake. I think UConn is better positioned now for what is coming than the Deacs. WF is the smallest of the current P5, with a undergrad count of about 5500. That, and being the number #4 in North Carolina, is going to make it an uphill battle. Having VA Tech and Clemson relatively close by doesn’t help. What they have going for them is a national alumni footprint that is focused from NC up through the northeast corridor. BC, by comparison, has about 9500 undergrads but alumni base is more regional/parochial. We will see, but I am not optimistic.

I wonder if there is room for a tier below for the Wake/ BC/ Duke (6800 undergrads)/ Vandy (7100 undergrads/ Northwestern (9000? undergrads)/ etc to say F this arms race — we can exist athletically in a tier below and still maintain our academic prestige? Might be a tough sell for Duke basketball traditionalists though.

I think there is a significant chance that the elite academic schools form their own thing athletically as college sports migrates to a minor league. Wake and Vanderbilt have more in common with U of Chicago and NYU than they do with Mississippi State and Florida State.

 

[History Geek]

I think there is a significant chance that the elite academic schools form their own thing athletically as college sports migrates to a minor league. Wake and Vanderbilt have more in common with U of Chicago and NYU than they do with Mississippi State and Florida State.

Yes. And as mentioned previously, there are the Ivies. The Patriot League is the Ivy League Light. And speaking of UChicago and NYU, at the D3 level there is the UAA that spans half the continent between Washington University in St. Louis in the midwest to Emory in the south to Brandies in New England. They have no issue jetting all over. It could work for elite academic schools that do not fit into the new D1 landscape.

 

[billybud]

Wake is small...but they are interesting.

...A streak of seven bowls in a row....

...Played in the ACC football Championship game in 2021.. (11 win season)

...The baseball team beat Bama in the 2023 Regional and is now alive in the cWS....just beat LSU in the CWS to send the Tigers home.

and...the Women's Golf Team just won a NC in May.

 

[History Geek]

Wake is small...but they are interesting.

...A streak of seven bowls in a row....

...Played in the ACC football Championship game in 2021.. (11 win season)

...The baseball team beat Bama in the 2023 Regional and is now alive in the cWS....just beat LSU in the CWS to send the Tigers home.

They have invested a bunch into athletics and the institution in general. Lots of wealthy donors helping with that. Definitely punching above their weight now. The basketball program seems to be on an upward trajectory as well.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Yes. And as mentioned previously, there are the Ivies. The Patriot League is the Ivy League Light. And speaking of UChicago and NYU, at the D3 level there is the UAA that spans half the continent between Washington University in St. Louis in the midwest to Emory in the south to Brandies in New England. They have no issue jetting all over. It could work for elite academic schools that do not fit into the new D1 landscape.

A prestige academic league of Stanford, Northwestern, Duke, and whoever else, would get a TV contract in a streaming world. And if Stanford or Harvard or Northwestern or UChicago ever decided that they wanted to compete at the highest level of collegiate athletics in the NIL era, their alumni could smash every SEC school into dust.

On the other hand, so people can get a sense of these schools' priorities, MIT dropped out of the UAA because it felt that a league with UChicago, Washington U, NYU, Emory, Rochester and Carnegie Mellon took away from MIT's academic mission.

 

[Slasher]

This is actually a bigger than athletics problem. There are a ton of smaller universities shutting down and/or on the brink of shutting down due to low/sinking enrollment. Even Big East member Xavier is trying to figure out a way to survive. They are considering resurrecting their football program to get more male students.

 

[DFW HOYA]

This is actually a bigger than athletics problem. There are a ton of smaller universities shutting down and/or on the brink of shutting down due to low/sinking enrollment. Even Big East member Xavier is trying to figure out a way to survive. They are considering resurrecting their football program to get more male students.

Xavier is not struggling to survive. They dropped out of what is now FBS football in 1973, and there is interest in an FCS level program but it stalled in the university bureaucracy.

Xavier Musketeers football - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Slasher]

Xavier is not struggling to survive. They dropped out of what is now FBS football in 1973, and there is interest in an FCS level program but it stalled in the university bureaucracy.

Xavier Musketeers football - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

No, they're struggling as a university.

Enrollment:
2023 - 5759
2022 - 6166
2021 - 6738
2020 - 6751
2019 - 6839

Do you see a very bad trend here?

 

[RSTuthill]

Probably nothing bad will happen. It’s tough to boot a school out of a P5 conference.

Any tougher than a P6 conference? To wit, Temple?

 

[businesslawyer]

Any tougher than a P6 conference? To wit, Temple?

Temple was never a full member of the Big East. It was a member of the A Ten that, for a while, was an associate of the Big East for football

 

[hoopsfan22]

The Catholic schools essentially booted the non-Catholic schools from the old Big East by starting a new conference and deciding who gets to be in it, and then bought the name of the conference from their old conference mates leaving the old Big East to find a new name. That's one way to do it.

 

[Viet Vet]

Maybe Vandy/Northwestern get pushed out?

No way Northwestern, a charter member of the Big Ten, gets pushed out.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

No way Northwestern, a charter member of the Big Ten, gets pushed out.

Schools won't get pushed out but rather some might opt out if/once athletes become employees getting paid and receiving benefits.

 

[temery]

Schools won't get pushed out but rather some might opt out if/once athletes become employees getting paid and receiving benefits.

Players will have to pay tuition, fee, room & board if this happens.

 

[RSTuthill]

The Catholic schools essentially booted the non-Catholic schools from the old Big East by starting a new conference and deciding who gets to be in it, and then bought the name of the conference from their old conference mates leaving the old Big East to find a new name. That's one way to do it.

I have often wondered about how the Catholic schools got away without paying an exit fee plus the fee to retain the old name.

 

[CL82]

Players will have to pay tuition, fee, room & board if this happens.

Why?