JoePgh
Cranky pants and wise acre
- Joined
- Aug 30, 2011
- Messages
- 4,019
- Reaction Score
- 24,661
Watching today's SEC game between Texas and Tennessee, I was naturally curious to see if any conclusions could be drawn from it about how UConn might match up with Texas if that game should occur in the NCAA tournament. At a very high level, the fact that UConn blew out Tennessee, while Texas escaped with a 2-point win over the LV's, seems to suggest that UConn would be strongly favored over Texas in any future game. But of course, UConn's game against Tennessee was in Hartford, while Texas's game was in Knoxville, so from TN's perspective, we would be comparing a road game blowout loss to a narrow home loss. But given the huge difference in margin of victory, home-vs.-road doesn't seem like a sufficient explanation.
Moreover, there were other similarities between the two games. The most obvious is that both games were tied at halftime. In both games, TN's opponent won the first quarter, and TN won the second quarter by exactly the same margin. In both games, the first 5 minutes of the third quarter were played evenly. After that, UConn blew the game open, while Texas continued to maintain a small lead over TN until the end of the game -- TX's largest lead was 14 points compared to 32 points for UConn. And this was despite the fact that UConn was missing Blanca for its game against TN, while TN was at full strength from a roster standpoint. In today's game between TN and TX, it was Tennessee who was short a player -- Mia Pauldo did not play, while TX appeared to be at full strength.
There was another factor that was dissimilar. In today's game between Tennessee and Texas, the fouls were very unbalanced -- TN committed 25 fouls while TX had only 12 (rather surprising considering that TN was the home team -- it caused VolNation conspiracists to explode in agony!). In the TN - UConn game, the fouls were almost even: 11 committed by TN and 9 by UConn. UConn actually had 1 fewer free throw attempt than TN, although UConn made 1 more free throw (9-for-11 vs. 8-for-12 for TN). In the UConn game, neither the fouls nor the free throws were significant in determining the outcome, but that was not the case in the TX - TN game. In today's game, Texas took 23 free throws and made 17, while TN was only 5-of-11 from the line. That is an advantage of 12 points for TX at the free throw line, which is six times the margin of victory for TX. TX had one less made field goal in the game and 8 fewer 3-point makes, but still won because of the free throw disparity.
Against the TN defense, UConn shot 58% and 50% from distance. Against presumably the same defense, Texas shot 46% and 0% (0-for-6) from 3-point land, despite presumably benefitting from those 25 foul calls on TN.
At the individual performance level, Talaysia Cooper scored 29 points on 12-for-19 shooting (4-for-7 from 3) against TX, compared to 8 points against UConn. On the other hand, Zee Spearman had just 2 points on 1-for-7 shooting against TX, but scored 14 points on 7-for-13 shooting against UConn. Is it too much to infer from this that UConn's interior defense is weaker than TX's, but its perimeter defense is stronger? Whether or not those statistics prove it, I think that is probably the case.
I am well aware of the limits of "transitivity" when comparing sports teams. (For example, if similar logic were used to compare UConn to South Carolina, the fact that SC beat TN by 43 points compared to UConn's 30-point margin of victory might lead to the conclusion that SC is significantly better than UConn.) Noting that caveat, I still think that the above comparisons do suggest that UConn should be significantly favored in any NCAA matchup with Texas. And since Texas lost by only 3 points to SC at home in January, does that mean that UConn should also be significantly favored against the Gamecocks? Maybe that is an inference too far.
Moreover, there were other similarities between the two games. The most obvious is that both games were tied at halftime. In both games, TN's opponent won the first quarter, and TN won the second quarter by exactly the same margin. In both games, the first 5 minutes of the third quarter were played evenly. After that, UConn blew the game open, while Texas continued to maintain a small lead over TN until the end of the game -- TX's largest lead was 14 points compared to 32 points for UConn. And this was despite the fact that UConn was missing Blanca for its game against TN, while TN was at full strength from a roster standpoint. In today's game between TN and TX, it was Tennessee who was short a player -- Mia Pauldo did not play, while TX appeared to be at full strength.
There was another factor that was dissimilar. In today's game between Tennessee and Texas, the fouls were very unbalanced -- TN committed 25 fouls while TX had only 12 (rather surprising considering that TN was the home team -- it caused VolNation conspiracists to explode in agony!). In the TN - UConn game, the fouls were almost even: 11 committed by TN and 9 by UConn. UConn actually had 1 fewer free throw attempt than TN, although UConn made 1 more free throw (9-for-11 vs. 8-for-12 for TN). In the UConn game, neither the fouls nor the free throws were significant in determining the outcome, but that was not the case in the TX - TN game. In today's game, Texas took 23 free throws and made 17, while TN was only 5-of-11 from the line. That is an advantage of 12 points for TX at the free throw line, which is six times the margin of victory for TX. TX had one less made field goal in the game and 8 fewer 3-point makes, but still won because of the free throw disparity.
Against the TN defense, UConn shot 58% and 50% from distance. Against presumably the same defense, Texas shot 46% and 0% (0-for-6) from 3-point land, despite presumably benefitting from those 25 foul calls on TN.
At the individual performance level, Talaysia Cooper scored 29 points on 12-for-19 shooting (4-for-7 from 3) against TX, compared to 8 points against UConn. On the other hand, Zee Spearman had just 2 points on 1-for-7 shooting against TX, but scored 14 points on 7-for-13 shooting against UConn. Is it too much to infer from this that UConn's interior defense is weaker than TX's, but its perimeter defense is stronger? Whether or not those statistics prove it, I think that is probably the case.
I am well aware of the limits of "transitivity" when comparing sports teams. (For example, if similar logic were used to compare UConn to South Carolina, the fact that SC beat TN by 43 points compared to UConn's 30-point margin of victory might lead to the conclusion that SC is significantly better than UConn.) Noting that caveat, I still think that the above comparisons do suggest that UConn should be significantly favored in any NCAA matchup with Texas. And since Texas lost by only 3 points to SC at home in January, does that mean that UConn should also be significantly favored against the Gamecocks? Maybe that is an inference too far.
