What do you think happens to L'Ville in the next poll?

[triaddukefan]

I disagree. While I admit that losing @Uconn by 17 certainly is not a punishable offense by itself, Louisville really doesn't have near the "body of work" that Duke does. Duke lost to the top 2 teams, whereas Louisville lost to UConn AND Kentucky. And when you look at the wins, there is a bigger difference. Louisville's only victory against teams in the top 25 is vs. LSU at the Yum! Center. Duke has won @Kentucky, @Cal, vs. Vandy, and vs. Purdue. Louisville has only a home contest @Yum vs. UConn left, whereas Duke still has games vs. UNC and Maryland and @ND, @UNC. Both teams have their conference tourney's left, but as of now, I think it only makes sense to have Duke a #1 seed ahead of Louisville.

Dont forget about NC State. They come to Durham next week... and they could very well be in the top 10 upon arrival. They should be #11 in tomorrows rankings. Like Louisville.. they also have a victory over LSU. Heck.... I just looked at State's schedule... and you can argue that they have a better wins than Louisville does. Talk about a tough two weeks for the Blue Devils.

 

[alexrgct]

I disagree. While I admit that losing @Uconn by 17 certainly is not a punishable offense by itself, Louisville really doesn't have near the "body of work" that Duke does. Duke lost to the top 2 teams, whereas Louisville lost to UConn AND Kentucky. And when you look at the wins, there is a bigger difference. Louisville's only victory against teams in the top 25 is vs. LSU at the Yum! Center. Duke has won @Kentucky, @Cal, vs. Vandy, and vs. Purdue. Louisville has only a home contest @Yum vs. UConn left, whereas Duke still has games vs. UNC and Maryland and @ND, @UNC. Both teams have their conference tourney's left, but as of now, I think it only makes sense to have Duke a #1 seed ahead of Louisville.

Duke is admissable if unconvincing as a #1. ND is obvious. UConn is even more obvious, if anything. Stanford just lost to U-Dub. If the regular season and league tournaments end today, Louisville would be deserving, albeit possibly by default.

 

[UcMiami]

This is getting very interesting and by the end of the year a real hodgepodge could present itself. So ... if Uconn and ND enter the NCAAs undefeated that means:
Louisville will have a 29-4 record with three Uconn loses and one to KY early in the season (that is taken into consideration)
Duke will have a 29-4 record with three losses to ND and 1 to Uconn and playing in the ACC
Stanford will likely have a 31-2 record with a Uconn loss and a bad late year loss at UW

I suspect that both Baylor and South Carolina may end up with at least one more loss but if they win out they would be at:
South Carolina 31-2 with an early loss to UNC and a later loss to A&M and any additional loss would likely be to a mid ranked team.
Baylor 30-3 with early loss to UK and later losses to Uconn and a bad one KU. Any additional loss would be a mid ranked to unranked team.

I guess you could make and argument for NC State, WVU, or TN winning out and contending for a #1 seed but I think that is both unlikely and given their play to date they have already sort of played themselves out of the 1 seed debate.

So - I think Stanford without another trip is pretty solidly at the third #1 seed. They haven't had a really tough schedule but it was an OK OOC and a pretty mediocre Pac.
I think if either Duke or Louisville end up winning one of their remaining games against Uconn or ND then that pushes them over the top into the final #1 seed. Otherwise Duke would take the final spot based on strength of schedule. But given Duke's play I could easily see them losing to someone other than ND and that would hurt them.

If Baylor and or SC have another loss I think that drops them out of consideration - the interesting question is if either wins out then them compared to a Louisville team with 4 losses but 3 of them to Uconn. This was NDs situation a few times and Uconn's as well. I think in a normal year the SEC or Big12 champion would be a shoe in, but both of those conferences are pretty mediocre this year and I think Louisville probably would deserve the last #1 (though for them it really doesn't matter unless the committee puts Uconn in their region.)

 

[chrissaran]

Louisville, Stanford and Kentucky all lost. The polls will definitely change, but I don't think all that much. Stanford just played one of those games. Kentucky seems lost. Louisville was shorthanded, but so was UConn, and one of ours isn't coming back.

 

[CTyankee]

Right now I'd guess it would go:

1. UConn
2. Notre Dame
3. Duke- I have a hard time respecting this program, blowout losses to UConn and ND, but better top 50 wins and only losses to top 2 teams...but the way they lost to them? And at home? With some close calls against un ranked teams? Hmmm...
4. Louisville- They played UConn tougher at UConn without a starter than a healthy Duke team did at home, should not fall.
5. Stanford- gotta move down 2 spots after a loss to an unranked 13-10 team no?
6. South Carolina- have not seen much of this team, only 2 losses, will be interesting to see if they run the table
7. Baylor
8. Tennessee
9. Maryland- a team to keep an eye on
10. Penn State

Agree this... And Maryland should move up... Maybe a lot higher by the end of the season...

 

[DobbsRover2]

Sorry to all the Duke lovers here, but though they have won in that #10-#20 region this year, they have been blown out at home in two games, while Lville's losses at least came on the road. And their recent Hail Mary wins against a bunch of mediocre teams like Miami, VTech, and FSU might somehow impress the pollsters down in the SE, but they really resemble more of a 10th ranked team. But yeah, move them to the #3 team I guess because........,.........well, because they're Duke.

 

[triaddukefan]

Sorry to all the both Duke lovers here, but though they have won in that #10-#20 region this year, they have been blown out at home in two games, while Lville's losses at least came on the road. And their recent Hail Mary wins against a bunch of mediocre teams like Miami, VTech, and FSU might somehow impress the pollsters down in the SE, but they really resemble more of a 10th ranked team. But yeah, move them to the #3 team I guess because...,....well, because they're Duke.

Well there are only two Duke lovers here... but anyway. I dont know if margin of victory or losses factors into deciding #1 seeds ( i hope not), but just looking at the data..... Louisville best two wins this season were LSU and the mediocre FSU squad. Like i stated earlier.... NC State has a better collection of wins than Louisville, much less dear ol Duke. Has their ever been a #1 seed in the women's tournament that only has 1 top 25 RPI win all season ??

 

[DobbsRover2]

Well there are only two Duke lovers here... but anyway. I dont know if margin of victory or losses factors into deciding #1 seeds ( i hope not), but just looking at the data..... Louisville best two wins this season were LSU and the mediocre FSU squad. Like i stated earlier.... NC State has a better collection of wins than Louisville, much less dear ol Duke. Has their ever been a #1 seed in the women's tournament that only has 1 top 25 RPI win all season ??

Sure, but Louisville hasn't gotten many top teams to play against, so getting top 10 wins are harder. But when they've played teams comparable to Duke's Miami and VTech games lately, they haven't stunk up the joint. Sure, just win baby is ultimately all that matters in the ranking, but for all the Dookie fans who think that recent 1 point wins over Miami and 4 point wins over VTech along with two complete blow-outs at home represent a real #3 team in the nation, I've got some other nice but totally unreal fantasies to sell you. At some point you have to start showing up for both the big and little games and stop wagging your finger at all the other teams asking about who have they beaten. I'm sure Dookie fans did that to Lville last year before their team skited off in the E8 and the Cardinals kept beating those top teams all the way to the NC game.

 

[ocoandasoc]

I believe that if there's a clear best-in-conference team in the Big 12 or SEC that they will contend with Louisville for the final #1 seed. (Right now, Baylor or South Carolina could win out and fill that description). And that would make little difference, since if Louisville drops to a #2, the fourth #1 seed would get to play them (Louisville) on their home court. I'm assuming that ND wins the ACC.
I keep waiting for one of the poll voters to vote for ND as the top team in the nation, just to make things interesting.
The drop-off after the top two teams is huge. Then there's a bunch of teams vying to be the best in that "second tier" and putting a little distance between them and the others as they move a little closer to the top two. Then there are a bunch of very mediocre teams with very little separating the #12 in the country from #28.
There could still be some surprises. Rutgers could take down a cold-shooting Louisville in the AAC Tourney. Stanford could be upset again. The SEC could have two or more teams tie for the regular season championship and have another team win the SEC Tourney. Baylor looks pretty safe though, and I look for a Baylor/Louisville rematch at Louisville for that Tourney regional final. A real grudge match... no matter which one is the #1 seed.

 

[jdubct]

There's a substantial gap between #2 and the rest of the field. Duke, Louisville, Stanford pickem (#3-#5). I don't think any of them has much of a chance to beat Uconn or ND in the NCAA tournament.

 

[Plumber Luigi]

Other than Stanford hopping over them on the way down, not much. LV lost to a higher ranked team so it's acceptable. Stanford lost against a team that isn't even ranked.

 

[easttexastrash]

Losing to uconn hasn't resulted in huge drops to Duke or Stanford, so I'd expect Louisville to fall a slot or two max.

On the basis of their work so far. Is have Louisville a #1 seed too. However, there's a good chance they're a #2 if they go 0-3 against uconn before the tourney, even though uconn is very, very good.

What is their work? One win over 16 LSU and losses to UK and UCONN?

Maybe I'm missing something?

 

[triaddukefan]

What is their work? One win over 16 LSU and losses to UK and UCONN?

Maybe I'm missing something?

They also beat Florida State, Colorado, and Oklahoma.

 

[easttexastrash]

They also beat Florida State, Colorado, and Oklahoma.

IMO those wins are not impressive enough to keep the Cards at 4 despite a loss since none of those teams are ranked anymore.

UCONN
ND
Duke
USC
Baylor
Louisville
Stanford
Tenn

 

[easttexastrash]

There's a substantial gap between #2 and the rest of the field. Duke, Louisville, Stanford pickem (#3-#5). I don't think any of them has much of a chance to beat Uconn or ND in the NCAA tournament.

Stranger things have happened