What are the quad wins?
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They were Quad 2 and Quad 1, respectively.
EDIT: But these can change over time.
EDIT: But these can change over time.
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Right now we’re 5-6 in Quad 1 and 6-1 in Quad 2.
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That must mean some teams moved up. We were 2-6 in Quad 1 (pretty ugly for a team contending for a top 5 seed) a few days ago. Xavier only accounts for 1 of them.
Marquette just got back to 30 in NET which is the threshold for a Quad 1 win at home. SJU moved up after their recent win and that away win also moved into Quad 1. Ad in Xavier and that is how we went from 2 quad 1 wins to 5.
Nova and @Creighton are remaining quad 1 opportunities.
Nova and @Creighton are remaining quad 1 opportunities.
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This is the best website for tracking this stuff
Connecticut Huskies Nitty Gritty at Bracketologists
Connecticut Huskies Nitty Gritty at Bracketologists
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Yeah, I saw the 2-6 a few days ago as well. 5-6 is pretty good, but a lot of our Q1 wins are clearly right on the line between Q1/Q2.
Like the NET graph over time feature. It's WILD that we've been between 15 and 18 for a solid 7 weeks. Like Georgetown moved up 11 spots after losing a game. Marquette didn't even play and moved 2 spots. It's not that stable a metric. Our play has been almost exactly as expected for half a season.
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Creighton, St. John's, Butler, WV, Providence, and Marquette are just barely on the right side of the Quad cutoffs. That helps for now, but could easily change.
wheelerdog
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Which is why Tuesday is so important.
Here's our NET quadrant borderline teams:
Xavier #24 - Stay top 30. Keeps our home win Q1.
Providence #27 - Stay top 30. Keeps our home loss Q1.
Marquette #30 - Stay top 30. Keeps our home win Q1.
Seton Hall #36 - Climb into top 30.. Adds a Q1 win.
VCU #58 - Climb into top 50. Adds a Q1 win.
St. John's #66 - Stay top 75. Keeps our road win Q1.
Creighton #67 - Stay top 75. Would make our potential road win Q1 and keep our home loss Q2.
West Virginia #69 - Stay top 75. Keeps our road loss Q1.
St. Bonaventure #86 - Stay top 100. Keeps our neutral win Q2.
Butler #127 - Stay top 135. Keeps our road win Q2.
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St. John's is sneaky important for our resume. If they fall off, that trades out a Q1 win for a Q3 (both our Q1 and Q2 wins downgraded).
The Marquette road win is guaranteed Q1, but the home win is in jeopardy of slipping, ditto vs. Xavier.
Beating Creighton on the road would be Q1 if they can hang on otherwise.
Yeah I edited in some context. Creighton needs to stay top 75. Difference between Q2 win and Q3 loss and Q1 win and Q2 loss is huge.
VCU and St. Bonaventure from the Atlantic 10 have been coming on strong of late. Are those two teams enough to be quality wins other than Auburn for non-conference?
VCU is slightly behind Davidson for 1st place and the Bonnie's are in the top 4 of that conference. Yes, A-10 is not the greatest conference, more like the AAC...but I would think both of those teams could be solid wins by the end of the season going into post season play.
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We’re a 6 in bracket matrix now. We’re not losing out and getting a 6 or 7.
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I guess my logic is that all the metrics have us in the top 20, and we don't have any opportunities for catastrophic losses left. Even a road loss at Georgetown would be our worst loss, and I assume some of the best teams have comparable bad losses.
I dunno. Hopefully we will beat Georgetown and collect a couple other wins and the hypothetical will be moot.
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If we lose out (very unlikely) we're probably a 9 or 10.
If we win 2 games we're supposed to (Depaul Georgetown), but lose the others (Nova, Creighton, BET 4/5 game), probably a 6 or 7.
If we win out, we're probably even as high as a 3 or 4 seed maybe?
storrsroars
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Looks like we lost a Q1 win. We were 5-6 after X win, now 4-6. Marquette dropped from 30 to 33.
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I think some of you are overemphasizing the records versus various quads. The Committee uses these as a starting point for their analysis, absolutely. But it’s a starting point. The Committee is more than capable of separating teams whose Quad 1 wins and losses are versus top 10 teams versus those whose Quad 1 wins and losses are versus teams at the edge of Quad 1, and the same for “high” Quad 2 wins and losses versus “low” Quad 2 wins and losses.
Is there a material difference between 2-6 in Quad 1 versus 7-6. Almost certainly. But is it really going to matter if, e.g., Marquette finishes 30 versus 32 on the computers? Probably not.
Is there a material difference between 2-6 in Quad 1 versus 7-6. Almost certainly. But is it really going to matter if, e.g., Marquette finishes 30 versus 32 on the computers? Probably not.
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I think you give these people too much credit
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Yeah, agree with this. The committee looks for justifications to do what they want to do. They’ve shown they are willing to seize on individual metrics to justify decisions without any consistent methodology.
If it’s down to us and a team from the Big Ten for the final 4 seed spot and we have a bunch of “high” Q2 wins, pretty sure the Committee will choose to look at those as nothing more than Q2 wins.
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From what I can see, the most important criteria, in order:
Average strength of record metrics, average predictive metrics, and then specifically Q1+Q2 record.
This site let's you adjust some metrics to make a top 25 ranking, but can be used to simulate the committee, too. This is the closest I can get:
UConn as a 6 right now.
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How does timing of the Quadrants work? I thought it was based on latest standings but the site linked has the SH loss as Q1 and the SH win as Q2.
Location matters.
- Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75.
- Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135.
- Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240.
- Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353.
Notable results:
- Marquette losing drops them from 30 to 33, crossing the top 30 threshold. Bad result.
- Creighton winning moved them up to 62. Considering their difficult schedule remaining, they shouldn't be penalized much for losses, so they seem very likely to stick below 75. Since we have a home loss to them, we really need them to stick below 75, so that was a very good result.
Update
Xavier #25 - Stay top 30. Keeps our home win Q1.
Providence #28 - Stay top 30. Keeps our home loss Q1.
Marquette #32 - Climb into top 30. Keeps our home win Q1.
Seton Hall #36 - Climb into top 30.. Adds a Q1 win.
VCU #57 - Climb into top 50. Adds a Q1 win.
St. John's #68 - Stay top 75. Keeps our road win Q1.
Creighton #64 - Stay top 75. Would make our potential road win Q1 and keep our home loss Q2.
West Virginia #74 - Stay top 75. Keeps our road loss Q1. DANGER ZONE!!.
St. Bonaventure #84 - Stay top 100. Keeps our neutral win Q2.
Butler #126 - Stay top 135. Keeps our road win Q2.
Lots of action yesterday, so update needed.
Xavier #26 - Stay top 30. Keeps our home win Q1. - Down 1.
Providence #28 - Stay top 30. Keeps our home loss Q1. --
Marquette #34 - Climb into top 30. Keeps our home win Q1. - Down 2.
Seton Hall #37 - Climb into top 30.. Adds a Q1 win. - Down 1
VCU #57 - Climb into top 50. Adds a Q1 win. --
St. John's #71 - Stay top 75. Keeps our road win Q1. - Down 3
Creighton #59 - Stay top 75. Would make our potential road win Q1 and keep our home loss Q2. - Up 5.
West Virginia #75 - Stay top 75. Keeps our road loss Q1. DANGER ZONE!!. - Down 1
St. Bonaventure #84 - Stay top 100. Keeps our neutral win Q2. --
Butler #127 - Stay top 135. Keeps our road win Q2. - Down 1
Will probably remove Creighton from future updates as they now appear safe. They were the only team of the ones we're watching to move in the right direction. Somehow Butler and Seton Hall played each other and both fell in the ranks lol. Xavier holding onto top 30 status despite losing 5 of 6 games.
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