Week of 3/11/24 Games (Conference Tournaments)

[Castlevania]

This man is coming to take one of your poverty church league team's bid. a true hero.

Too bad ESPN gave NC State the ultimate jinx by saying they already won the ACC Tourney

 

[storrsroars]

Virginia is probably still getting in though, so it's not taking them out.

I'm not seeing it. They were already last four in on bracketmatrix and just lost to a lower seed. One of UVA, Hall or UNM has to go to make room for TAMU. Hall was already there after their Thursday loss and UNM just won last night. So it's UVA that'll go out.

 

[auror]

I'm not seeing it. They were already last four in on bracketmatrix and just lost to a lower seed. One of UVA, Hall or UNM has to go to make room for TAMU. Hall was already there after their Thursday loss and UNM just won last night. So it's UVA that'll go out.

I did a blind resume comparison yesterday and they were clearly a tier ahead of the rest of the bubble due to their resume metrics, 23 wins, and (now) 10-10 Q1+Q2 record and no bad losses. Their top end is worse than some, but 15-4 against Q2 and Q3. Usually the committee favors the resume metrics at the bubble and Virginia's are strong (38 KPI, 33 SOR, 39 WAB). If the committee puts a lot of emphasis on predictive metrics, they could be left out but I would be a bit surprised. It's more likely some of the Big East teams like Seton Hall that has worse resume metrics will be left out.

 

[auror]

I'm not seeing it. They were already last four in on bracketmatrix and just lost to a lower seed. One of UVA, Hall or UNM has to go to make room for TAMU. Hall was already there after their Thursday loss and UNM just won last night. So it's UVA that'll go out.

I think Michigan St is in more trouble than Virginia.

 

[Hey Adrien!]

#2 seed Fairfield faces #5 seed Saint Peter's tonight for a chance to win their first MAAC Championship since 1997.

Here's my preview:

2024 MAAC Championship Preview - #5 Saint Peter's vs. #2 Fairfield

stretchingthefloor.blogspot.com

 

[tzznandrew]

Virginia is probably still getting in though, so it's not taking them out.

We'll see. Their NET is 55 and they have exactly 2 Q1 wins. Seton Hall's NET is worse (66) but they have 5 Q1 wins. St. John's is in. They have a NET of 34 and 4 Q1 wins.

I do think PC is out (57, but 6 Q1 wins) and Seton Hall is in trouble wins: against UConn and Marquette are doing a lot of work for them. Depending on bid thieves, I think St. John's is on the border for Dayton and Seton Hall is in Dayton as of right now.

 

[Hunt for 7]

I am going to say it now. Watch out for Auburn in the tourney. They are in the KP range we were last year and now they are more than likely going to win the SEC tourney which probably will get them on the three seed line. They are 1-7 in Quad 1 games so at best they end up 3-7. So maybe they stay in the 4 line. They are the only team top ten in offense and defense on KP.

 

[auror]

I do think PC is out (57, but 6 Q1 wins) and Seton Hall is in trouble wins: against UConn and Marquette are doing a lot of work for them. Depending on bid thieves, I think St. John's is on the border for Dayton and Seton Hall is in Dayton as of right now.

PC is a wild card. As a whole, their resume is just okay. But if committee really emphasizes Q1 wins they could get in over a team we think has a stronger resume overall. Thinking like Tulsa from 5 years ago or whenever that was.

 

[tzznandrew]

no bad losses

I think @ Notre Dame constitutes a bad loss. It falls into Q2, but...they're 13-20. That's a whole different ballgame than losing at home to #31 or on the road to #71. Seton Hall lost to Rutgers at home, but Rutgers is a better team than Notre Dame by any statistical measure... and they are both Jersey teams, so it's not like it was hard for the imaginary Rutgers fans to show up.

I think as of right now their 2 Q1 wins (@ Clemson and N-Florida) both fall outside Q1A. Clemson is 36 and Florida is 28.

How do you put a team in the field without a Q1A win? They haven't demonstrated they can beat anyone in the Top 16.

(Also, these are philosophical questions about the tournament, not a challenge to your position, which is merely articulating what you think the committee will do.)

 

[Hey Adrien!]

I am going to say it now. Watch out for Auburn in the tourney. They are in the KP range we were last year and now they are more than likely going to win the SEC tourney which probably will get them on the three seed line. They are 1-7 in Quad 1 games so at best they end up 3-7. So maybe they stay in the 4 line. They are the only team top ten in offense and defense on KP.

I love Auburn.

They're currently one of my final four picks thanks to the way they move the ball beautifully in Pearl's most versatile offense since their Final Four squad in 2019. Their forwards are their most potent offensive weapons and can score from anywhere. TOUGH defense, especially inside the arc and with their 10-11 man rotation, they just come at you in waves. My only concern, they've got two underclassman point guards and I like older guards in March.

 

[runner11]

Or it validates that the Big 12 has inflated efficiency ratings based on blowing out low-majors.

BYU running it back with the same squad and having more success in the B12 than in the WAC. UCF and Cinci experiencing no drop off jumping from the AAC. And Houston dominating after losing 2 1st rounders and their 2 highest rated recruits mid-season.

 

[storrsroars]

I did a blind resume comparison yesterday and they were clearly a tier ahead of the rest of the bubble due to their resume metrics, 23 wins, and (now) 10-10 Q1+Q2 record and no bad losses. Their top end is worse than some, but 15-4 against Q2 and Q3. Usually the committee favors the resume metrics at the bubble and Virginia's are strong (38 KPI, 33 SOR, 39 WAB). If the committee puts a lot of emphasis on predictive metrics, they could be left out but I would be a bit surprised. It's more likely some of the Big East teams like Seton Hall that has worse resume metrics will be left out.

I prefer your grid as it gives Pitt a better shot at making the field than most bracketologists do. But I'm hoping you're wrong about UVA. The committee had to take all those Pete Gillen Princeton teams as they were AQs. They don't have to take UVA. I'm thinking as the committee is looking over who goes into those precious few last spots they ask themselves if any of them want to watch a UVA game. And as the vote goes around the table, it's a unanimous "no".

 

[Ripper32]

Like to see the hawks make the tournament with a A10 tourney title. Possibly the best team in the greater Philly area. They went to OT at lexington, beat Nova and beat Princeton. Also, had some bad losses in the A10.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Nc state winning is not good for bubble teams. I am looking at you Seton Hall.

NC State wouldn't get an at large I don't think, but could steal the auto-bid

 

[ec33]

I love Auburn.

They're currently one of my final four picks thanks to the way they move the ball beautifully in Pearl's most versatile offense since their Final Four squad in 2019. Their forwards are their most potent offensive weapons and can score from anywhere. TOUGH defense, especially inside the arc and with their 10-11 man rotation, they just come at you in waves. My only concern, they've got two underclassman point guards and I like older guards in March.

Auburn in particular, but I will breathe more freely after the SEC team is eliminated from UConn's region. Flawed, but scary teams.

 

[Hey Adrien!]

This America East Championship game has been fantastic.

UMass Lowell and Vermont just trading buckets. 1 point game with 11 to go.

I was scheduled to cover Ivy Madness today, but family obligations are keeping me home today and I'll cover the championship tomorrow.

 

[gsmooth]

#2 seed Fairfield faces #5 seed Saint Peter's tonight for a chance to win their first MAAC Championship since 1997.

Here's my preview:

2024 MAAC Championship Preview - #5 Saint Peter's vs. #2 Fairfield

stretchingthefloor.blogspot.com

Put your mid major mojo in favor of Fairfield and Yale today please. UConn winning makes for an excellent day and an excellent entree, but the Fairfield and Yale are the appetizers. Quinnipiac losing at the buzzer was a heartbreaker.

 

[gsmooth]

NC State wouldn't get an at large I don't think, but could steal the auto-bid

Well that's what I meant. They actually have a chance to "steal" a bid if they beat UNC. Seton Hall and other bubble teams are on the edge of their seats and nervous.

 

[BigErnMcCracken]

I was scheduled to cover Ivy Madness today, but family obligations are keeping me home today and I'll cover the championship tomorrow.

You missed a good one!! Princeton’s going home early. Brown up 22 in the second half and held on for dear life with the worst press break I’ve ever seen. Keep it rolling tomorrow.

 

[SoFla Steve]

Wisconsin and Purdue -- Edey on the bench early with two PFs.

 

[jibsey]

Wisconsin and Purdue -- Edey on the bench early with two PFs.

He got a foul and a T with 17 minutes left in half. Purdue looks strong even without him out there.

 

[aceboon]

AJ Storr looks like an NBA wing

 

[Blueballer]

He got a foul and a T with 17 minutes left in half. Purdue looks strong even without him out there.

What was the T for?

 

[Ripper32]

Erik Reynolds is starting to heat up. Someone is going to throw major NIL money at him.

 

[LStudfellow]

AJ Storr looks like an NBA wing

Pitino is a great coach for sure... but running this guy off was straight stupid... I mean RIDICULOUSLY STUPID.

When word got out that Storr was being told to move on, I said he is the one guy from St. John's I would have been standing at his door with a bag to bring him here. He is almost single-handedly getting Wisconsin into the NCAA tournament. And he gives them a chance to get to the 2nd weekend. Otherwise, that time is totally pedestrian. I love his game, and his moxy.