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There is a huge gap between #3 and #4, but I agree UNC is probably the best of that next tier (UNC/Tennessee/Arizona).I always thought it should have been UNC. They aren't a great team, but they are better, and have a better resume, than Tennessee and Arizona.
This also highlights why it's so important to get the #1 seed -- getting UNC as a potential Final Four opponent instead of Houston or Purdue. Though the way Houston looks right now that's asking for a lot from Iowa State or Baylor.