Week of 2/19 Other Games

[navery12]

@navery12 That's more than valid. What's not valid is the obvious conundrum of a top 25 team being the high 60's in tourney ranking. I know they have to make room for every conference but I can't remember the last time I've seen this. Has a ranked team (if they're ranked at the time of selection) missed the tourney even semi recently?

SMU missed the tourney and was ranked #21 sometime within the past few years

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Likely not. St John's was deep bubble before this. This is a nice win, but at home. This moves them from 1- to 2-9 in Q1. Butler would be another, so 3-9. They'll be 9-11 in Q1+2 at that point and they'd get the 5 seed in BET (or 6 or 7 or 8 depending on other results and tiebreakers). Losing eventually will give them another likely Q1 loss (if they get autobid this talk is all moot so they have to lose), so 9-12. They probably need 2 non-Gtown or DePaul wins in BET to get to 11-12 in Q1+2.

They probably actually don't want the 5, as it gives them a bye and that makes their 2 wins tougher games, though the 6 or 7 gives them essentially a non-win (GTown or DePaul in rd 1 are both quad 3 on neutral). So ideally for them they get the 8 and then beat Butler and then beat us, unfortunately the 8 is their least likely seed if they win out.

The entire bubble really comes down to how the committee treats the Big 12. If you go off the computer rankings alone, the Big 12 is getting 8 bids, which crowds out a lot of bubble teams.

 

[Tenspro2002]

The entire bubble really comes down to how the committee treats the Big 12. If you go off the computer rankings alone, the Big 12 is getting 8 bids, which crowds out a lot of bubble teams.

How do the Big 12 keep gaming the rankings like this?

It seems much more likely that they're all frauds than that they're all juggernauts.

 

[shizzle787]

Providence and Seton Hall are both 18-9 as is Wake Forest. If the tournament started today the first two would be in due to SOS, the same reason Wake would be out.

 

[EnochRoot]

The last time South Florida lost was on Jan 7 (65-61 @UAB). They have a 3 game lead in the AAC, and are 21-5. They've won 13 straight, including wins over @ #10 Memphis and FAU.

The narrative is finally starting to shift to the fact that maaaaybe they don't have to win the AAC tournament to get a bid to the tournament.

 

[shizzle787]

The entire bubble really comes down to how the committee treats the Big 12. If you go off the computer rankings alone, the Big 12 is getting 8 bids, which crowds out a lot of bubble teams.

8+ Big 12 teams will have 20+ wins on Selection Sunday and every team in the Big 12 has a top-65 SOS (according to ESPN) so you can't act like they aren't supposed to get at least 8 teams.

 

[shizzle787]

The last time South Florida lost was on Jan 7 (65-61 @UAB). They have a 3 game lead in the AAC, and are 21-5. They've won 13 straight, including wins over @ #10 Memphis and FAU.

The narrative is finally starting to shift to the fact that maaaaybe they don't have to win the AAC tournament to get a bid to the tournament.

If they win out until the AAC title game, they will have 26 wins with a SOS of around 180. It will be close, but they will probably be out. The better discussion is what happens if Loyola or Richmond wins out. They would have 26 wins if they lose in the A-10 title game but Richmond's SOS is just outside the top 100 and Loyola's is around 140.

 

[EnochRoot]

If they win out until the AAC title game, they will have 26 wins with a SOS of around 180. It will be close, but they will probably be out. The better discussion is what happens if Loyola or Richmond wins out. They would have 26 wins if they lose in the A-10 title game but Richmond's SOS is just outside the top 100 and Loyola's is around 140.

26 wins and looking from the outside in while a bunch of Big Ten teams get in with a .500 Big Ten record is a freakin joke. I'm picking on the Big Ten because they're low hanging fruit.

If USF reaches the AAC title game only to lose to say, FAU (after beating FAU several days ago), then SOS is over-valued. Eyes matter. That team belongs in the tournament.

 

[shizzle787]

26 wins and looking from the outside in while a bunch of Big Ten teams get in with a .500 Big Ten record is a freakin joke. I'm picking on the Big Ten because they're low hanging fruit.

If USF reaches the AAC title game only to lose to say, FAU (after beating FAU several days ago), then SOS is over-valued. Eyes matter. That team belongs in the tournament.

The committee got rid of how you are playing lately as they should have. Merit is the best way to determine things. Your win total and SOS are what all the other metrics are derived from. USF is going to learn a valuable lesson if they lose in the AAC final and miss the tournament: stop scheduling garbage in the non-conference.

 

[EnochRoot]

The committee got rid of how you are playing lately as they should have. Merit is the best way to determine things. Your win total and SOS are what all the other metrics are derived from. USF is going to learn a valuable lesson if they lose in the AAC final and miss the tournament: stop scheduling garbage in the non-conference.

Yeah that's nonsense and you know it, because they will penalize or reward a team for an injured player earlier in the season or later in the season if it fits their dialog.

I get why you might move away from how you are playing lately, but telling mid-majors to build a stronger schedule is not a convincing argument.

 

[shizzle787]

Yeah that's nonsense and you know it, because they will penalize or reward a team for an injured player earlier in the season or later in the season if it fits their dialog.

I get why you might move away from how you are playing lately, but telling mid-majors to build a stronger schedule is not a convincing argument.

This isn't about being in a mid-major league. FAU's strength of schedule is about 90. That's why they don't have this problem. The American is the 9th ranked league according to Torvik. It's 9th, not 23rd. USF is going to get burned not solely because they play in the AAC but because they play in the AAC AND scheduled garbage in the non-conference.

 

[EnochRoot]

This isn't about being in a mid-major league. FAU's strength of schedule is about 90. That's why they don't have this problem. The American is the 9th ranked league according to Torvik. It's 9th, not 23rd. USF is going to get burned not solely because they play in the AAC but because they play in the AAC AND scheduled garbage in the non-conference.

So the AAC is not a mid-major because they're the '9th' ranked conference?

Where does the ranking of big conferences end?

Yes, this is a sbnation site, so YMMV, but

Mid-Major Teams by Conference | Mid-Major Madness

With all the movement in the conferences over the past few years, maybe you would like a reference to who is where. We have you covered

www.midmajormadness.com

 

[auror]

IF USF wins out and gets to title game and loses, I'd bet they're in. At that point it's too many wins for the committee to ignore, they'd be in the low 40s for most resume metrics with an over .500 Q1+Q2 record according to Torvik, which is right side of the bubble team territory.

The more interesting question is what happens if they lose at Charlotte upcoming and then do the same. That probably puts their WAB in the mid 50s and .500 F2Q.

 

[shizzle787]

So the AAC is not a mid-major because they're the '9th' ranked conference?

Where does the ranking of big conferences end?

Yes, this is a sbnation site, so YMMV, but

Mid-Major Teams by Conference | Mid-Major Madness

With all the movement in the conferences over the past few years, maybe you would like a reference to who is where. We have you covered

www.midmajormadness.com

There is a huge difference being in a true mid-major like the American and being in a low-major like the ASUN.

 

[shizzle787]

IF USF wins out and gets to title game and loses, I'd bet they're in. At that point it's too many wins for the committee to ignore, they'd be in the low 40s for most resume metrics with an over .500 Q1+Q2 record according to Torvik, which is right side of the bubble team territory.

The more interesting question is what happens if they lose at Charlotte upcoming and then do the same. That probably puts their WAB in the mid 50s and sub .500 F2Q.

For political reasons if Memphis is out I could see it to guarantee the league two bids. Metrics-wise I would argue they would slightly be on the wrong side of the bubble. Loyola and Richmond are the more interesting test cases. Both have the same scenario in front of them with better SOS numbers.

 

[EnochRoot]

There is a huge difference being in a true mid-major like the American and being in a low-major like the ASUN.

So you're using that metric against USF for being in the wrong type of mid-major. Come on.

 

[shizzle787]

So you're using that metric against USF for being in the wrong type of mid-major. Come on.

No. USF's issue is not that they are a mid-major. It is that they are a mid-major AND scheduled poorly out of conference. FAU has the same number of wins in the same league but it is in much better position because their SOS is about 90 spots higher. The conference (being the 9th best) isn't enough to hold FAU back from getting an at-large bid if they schedule OOC properly. USF failed to do that. That is a lesson is scheduling.

 

[EnochRoot]

No. USF's issue is not that they are a mid-major. It is that they are a mid-major AND scheduled poorly out of conference. FAU has the same number of wins in the same league but it is in much better position because their SOS is about 90 spots higher. The conference (being the 9th best) isn't enough to hold FAU back from getting an at-large bid if they schedule OOC properly. USF failed to do that. That is a lesson is scheduling.

So...a team that goes 27-6, losing in the AAC title game is a victim of their scheduling, while a team that goes .500 in the bloated, overrated, SOS loving Big Ten gets an at-large bid?

Get out of here with that nonsense.

 

[shizzle787]

So...a team that goes 27-6, losing in the AAC title game is a victim of their scheduling, while a team that goes .500 in the bloated, overrated, SOS loving Big Ten gets an at-large bid?

Get out of here with that nonsense.

USF would have 26* wins in that scenario.
If they schedule poorly in the OOC, then yes.
If they schedule well in the OOC, then no.

This is about OOC scheduling not being in the AAC.
FAU realistically needs only two more wins (23 total) to get into the field.

 

[auror]

For political reasons if Memphis is out I could see it to guarantee the league two bids. Metrics-wise I would argue they would slightly be on the wrong side of the bubble. Loyola and Richmond are the more interesting test cases. Both have the same scenario in front of them with better SOS numbers.

I just can't see them leaving out a team that wins the AAC by 3-4 games, goes 19-1 in conference (21-2 with conf tourny) even with the unbalanced schedule. They'd have won at Memphis, at Charlotte, and at North Texas, home FAU with their only loss being at UAB (in the conf top tier). They'd be 11-4 in road/neutral games with pretty good resume metrics.

Their predictive metrics would likely climb to a more palatable position as well if they go 5-1 to end the season. They've gone from 180 in KenPom on Dec 2 to 93 now in a pretty linear climb. A smart committee would assume their true ranking is better than that with that stark a trend.

South Florida is already higher in WAB than Richmond and Loyola already. SOR has Richmond slightly ahead but in the same ballpark and hasn't updated for USF's win today yet. KPI has both of those 2 ahead. They're in similar ranges.

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

I’m not backing away…but you should!

I can't remember which position either of you is arguing for anymore, only that with each round of more vehemently repeated certainty, it's a more clear concern that your gentiles are shrinking.