We have 15 players who gets the minutes?

[ConnMotors]

We have 15 players. So who gets the minutes? Break it down into three sections with whom you think will get the most to the least. This is based on no player being injured or taking a red shirt year. I believe that all of us will agree on who the top two are.

1) Sarah Strong
2) Azzi Fudd
3) KK Arnold
4) Serah Williams
5) Ashlynn Shade

6) Kayleigh Heckel
7) Jana El Alfy
8) Blanca Quinonez
9) Ice Brady
10) Caroline Ducharme

11) Morgan Cheli
12) Ayanna Patterson
13) Allie Ziebell
14) Kelis Fisher
15) Gandy Malou-Mamel

 

[huskyd]

Once Geno decides who to start, his pattern has been to use that group as the core of the players that get most of the time. It's likely that Azzi, Sarah, and Serah will be the centerpieces; the second and third starters will move around more and play less overall.
Right now, we do not know who will play point, but a couple of players will probably split time. The most intriguing position is who will be the starting forward because there are several strong candidates. They, too, may rotate and share minutes.
Again, once Geno decides his starting 5, that group will get the bulk of the minutes.
Problem: some worthy players will not get as much playing time as they'd like because the roster is so loaded.

 

[EricLA]

Everyone who practices well and stays out of the doghouse (or gets the injury bug) will eat. I look forward to seeing how Geno manages it this season. It will go a long way for future recruiting to show what UConn will do with a stacked roster.

 

[Charliebball]

I know many folks don't like the idea, but in addition to the normal substitutions, I'd be curious to see a complete second or third unit to come into games just to change the temperature......

 

[hoopsfan22]

Let's just wait and see if we actually have 15 come opening night.

 

[NycUcWbbFan]

Just an illustrative WAG based on a crude simplest complexity parametric model I doodled with way before the OOC schedule came out.

The model has 3 types of opponents, and for each opponent, a 4-point histogram probability distribution of competitive minutes was modeled.

Competitive minutes assumptions are based on my subjective feel for each players mix-match importance in a 40-minute game. Garbage minutes reflects Geno’s proclivity of mixing rotation players with reserves for part of garbage time.

Geno and CD has had the early TASSK years precedents (where minutes were relatively flatter) for managing a stacked roster.

 

[Bone Dog]

6) Kayleigh Heckel
7) Jana El Alfy
8) Blanca Quinonez
9) Ice Brady
10) Caroline Ducharme

I have no idea what to think about playing time, other than that by February there will be a group that gets ~25 mins and probably another that gets ~15. Who is in each group will probably evolve throughout the season, as well as how many play in each group. November-December (and maybe part of January) is experiment time, and February is solidification time.

What really catches my eye is your three groups, or more precisely, the second group. I don’t know why, but I’m really intrigued by a lineup of Kayleigh Blanca Caroline Ice and Jana. I don’t know if this lineup will ever see the floor together. But it’s kind of fun to picture what they’ll be like. It’s not a very quick group outside of Kayleigh and Blanca. Still it’s got a lot of confidence and court savvy. Perimeter shooting is not very strong beyond Caroline, and it’s not loaded with scorers. But this may be good for Jana and Ice. They were scorers in high school and maybe a lineup like this would free them up to take more chances and rediscover their old selves. And a lot would depend on Kayleigh to make this lineup work.

 

[JSB60]

With Geno’s well known preference for returning players, I’d be surprised if the starters weren’t KK, Fudd, Shade, Serah, Sarah. KK’s performance in each game will dictate the minute split with Kayleigh, as will Serah’s with Jana. The wing reserve spots are wide open, in close games there won’t be that many minutes there. Sarah will come out when she needs rest or is in foul trouble, as will Azzi.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

Wow, that took a long time to surface! Personally I like to see the ponies before I place my bet.

 

[Boreifs]

I will be totally shocked if Morgan is not in a rotation of 10. She seems like the perfect sub for Sarah, a role that she excelled at last year. This of course depends on her health.

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

ConnMotors- - -I agree with what you have above:
1) Sarah Strong
2) Azzi Fudd
3) KK Arnold
4) Serah Williams
5) Ashlynn Shade

6) Kayleigh Heckel
7) Jana El Alfy
8) Blanca Quinonez
9) Ice Brady
10) Caroline Ducharme

11) Morgan Cheli
12) Ayanna Patterson
13) Allie Ziebell
14) Kelis Fisher
15) Gandy Malou-Mamel

But I think Blanca and Caroline could seriously cut into Ashlynne Shade's minutes by the middle of the season!
Blanca's athletic ability and Caroline's BB IQ could be helpful in attaining more minutes!

 

[Skeets]

We could, and probably will, be embarrassed by our preseason guesses. That's right guesses. You can break the minutes down to 2 decimal places and it's still a guess.

I don't know how the minutes will work, but one relatively safe prognostication is they will be different depending on if it's a Big East quality team or a tournament quality team.

 

[Bald Husky]

ConnMotors- - -I agree with what you have above:
1) Sarah Strong
2) Azzi Fudd
3) KK Arnold
4) Serah Williams
5) Ashlynn Shade

6) Kayleigh Heckel
7) Jana El Alfy
8) Blanca Quinonez
9) Ice Brady
10) Caroline Ducharme

11) Morgan Cheli
12) Ayanna Patterson
13) Allie Ziebell
14) Kelis Fisher
15) Gandy Malou-Mamel

But I think Blanca and Caroline could seriously cut into Ashlynne Shade's minutes by the middle of the season!
Blanca's athletic ability and Caroline's BB IQ could be helpful in attaining more minutes!

I think Geno may need to retire after trying to navigate this roster. LOL. I look at these groups, and the starting line-up is exactly what I think makes sense. I look at the second team and, yeah, that looks right. I look at the third team and, hey wait a minute, Morgan was an important early season rotation player last year, so she should be up there. Ayanna, wait a minute, with her rebounding, she may be needed when we face those big teams, and Allie, a really good 3 point shooter that if she has gotten over her hesitation of being aggressive, I mean, how can they be at the bottom? Okay, so I look again at the second team and, whoa, who do I pull back? This is impossible, there is actually too much talent to go around. I hope everyone gets a real shot at playing time before Geno sets his 10 player rotation, because those practices will be intense, and nobody, and I mine nobody will be crossed off the list before January. Good luck Geno and be calm and open to anything. This season could be different from any we have seen before, but for us, it will be fun. For Geno, maybe not so much. LOL. I just can't wait to see what happens.

 

[Vancat]

a good problem to have, as they say.

 

[Bone Dog]

As always, there will be lots of experimenting early in the season. But where will Geno settle with this roster? If you look at what happened last February in the two toughest games, maybe you get a glimpse into where this season is headed.

2/6 vs Tenn: Paige 35 mins Sarah 39 mins Azzi 29 KK 25 Kaitlyn 21 Ash 19 Jana 11 Aubrey 15 Morgan 6 Ice dnp shoulder

2/16 vs SC Paige 35 mins Sarah 31 mins Azzi 35 KK 24 Ash 24 Kaitlyn 18 Jana 22 Aubrey 18 Morgan dnp ankle Ice dnp shoulder

The two Creighton games (the only competitive ones after this) follow a similar pattern.

It would make sense to imagine Kayleigh would get Kaitlyn’s minutes and Serah would get most of Paige’s minutes. That just leaves the ~20 that went to Morgan and Aubrey. Will they go to Blanca? Or Caroline? Or maybe Morgan? I’d imagine Geno may also try to limit the minutes of the new “big three” (Azzi Sarah Serah) to something less than 30 which would create room for Ice and Jana.

 

[ConnMotors]

It was really difficult for me to place Morgan in the third tier. She is my favorite player on this team. Watching her last season was inspiring and the girl has game. However with all of the others on this team placing her at #11 was the best that I could do. And, I agree with all of you. Playing Big East teams won’t be the same as playing Southern California or Notre Dame.

 

[VaConnFan11]

I doubt anyone will play over 25 minutes in conference games and 35 minutes in the very few competitive non-conference games. I think there will be a lot of players in the 10-15 minute range and maybe 1 or 2 in the 5-10 minute range.

From what I have read and seen on video, everyone should be able to contribute quality minutes this season, regardless of how many or how few they play.

 

[meyers7]

Let's just wait and see if we actually have 15 come opening night.

I can almost guarantee we'll never have all 15 for any game this season. IF, we are really, really lucky we might have a couple games with 14 available. Most games will be probably 13. Probably only a few with 12. Don't think we'll get down to 11 though.

And I do hope I am wrong (about the high end).

 

[CL82]

I will be totally shocked if Morgan is not in a rotation of 10. She seems like the perfect sub for Sarah, a role that she excelled at last year. This of course depends on her health.

I felt Morgan was too low at 11 too, but then I looked at five through 10 and could not decide who to bump. The best I could come up with was Ice, though she certainly seems to be worthy of being in the first 10 as well.

 

[JellyBean]

I will wait until I hear from Coach on who is healthy or not before I start worrying about who gets the minutes.

 

[Bone Dog]

I don’t think in terms of worthiness or having earned something. These are metaphors that don’t fit the situation very well. For example, Sarah was awesome last season and it’s hard to imagine her to starting but this isn’t because she’s worthy or somehow earned a spot last season. What we really mean, I suspect, is that someone who played as well as she did last season is most likely to win a spot this season by her effort and talent in practice.

It all starts anew each season. We see continuity from year to year only because the kids who won the competition in practice one season are likely to win it again the following season. No one will outcompete Sarah this fall because of how good she is and how hard she competes. Same for Azzi. Everything else is up for grabs. I suspect Serah will win a starting spot, but that’s just a guess based on watching tapes of last season. I suspect KK and Ash will not be outcompeted either.

 

[YKCornelius]

Just an illustrative WAG based on a crude simplest complexity parametric model I doodled with way before the OOC schedule came out.

The model has 3 types of opponents, and for each opponent, a 4-point histogram probability distribution of competitive minutes was modeled.

Competitive minutes assumptions are based on my subjective feel for each players mix-match importance in a 40-minute game. Garbage minutes reflects Geno’s proclivity of mixing rotation players with reserves for part of garbage time.

Geno and CD has had the early TASSK years precedents (where minutes were relatively flatter) for managing a stacked roster.

View attachment 111282View attachment 111283

NycUcWbbFan, interesting chart. Thanks for doing this.

As a stats guy, I am interested in the assumptions behind the numbers. Specifically, over a 40 game season, who are your six Group A opponents? Two Final Four, one Elite Eight, and one Sweet Sixteen, presumably take up four of the six.

What about the Big East championship?

During the season there are games with Louisville, Ohio State, Florida State, Michigan, Utah, USC, Iowa, Notre Dame and Tennessee. All nine have the potential to host the first two rounds and therefore the potential to make it to the SS, in my opinion. Which of these games make the Group A cut?

 

[ec33]

If everyone is healthy, playing time in the first 3 quarters is going to be rather tough on Geno. It is hard to get all that far beyond 9 or 10 without making an effort.

You have the presumed starters: Azzi, Sarah, Serah, KK, and Ashlynn.

The obvious backups: Kayleigh and Jana.

The hard imagine aren't playing if healthy and integrated: Carol, Blanca, Morgan, and Ayanna.

That already is 11 (and too many), plus Allie with a sophomore leap is capable of putting herself in the conversation.

Fourth quarter minutes might be tougher than many appreciate.

 

[EricLA]

We have 15 players. So who gets the minutes? Break it down into three sections with whom you think will get the most to the least. This is based on no player being injured or taking a red shirt year. I believe that all of us will agree on who the top two are.

1) Sarah Strong
2) Azzi Fudd
3) KK Arnold
4) Serah Williams
5) Ashlynn Shade

6) Kayleigh Heckel
7) Jana El Alfy
8) Blanca Quinonez
9) Ice Brady
10) Caroline Ducharme

11) Morgan Cheli
12) Ayanna Patterson
13) Allie Ziebell
14) Kelis Fisher
15) Gandy Malou-Mamel

I think you nailed it with one exception - I'd swap Morgan and Ice. Ice was a starter last season until the USC game. Then she started coming off the bench in favor of Jana. Until injuries, they were fairly even - but in general, Morgan was off the bench before Ice was (IIRC). I think a healthy Morgan with the sophomore leap will end up ahead of Ice, who had no visible sophomore leap (to my untrained eyes) and I'm guessing she's peaked, while I think Morgan will get better.

But it's super hard to tell and I sure hope Ice does indeed step up her game. I'll admit, for the juniors and seniors, she's been the most disappointing to me. But the sun has not set on her career, and hope springs eternal!!

 

[Conndog]

I think Ayanna is a threat to the playing time of both Ice and Morgan because she is a really strong rebounder. Ice and Morgan are better shooters, but they don’t put up a lot of shots. I’m also very curious to see how Allie Z does this year. And Caroline!