We have 15 players who gets the minutes?

[Conndog]

I think Ayanna is a threat to the playing time of both Ice and Morgan because she is a really strong rebounder. Ice and Morgan are better shooters, but they don’t put up a lot of shots. I’m also very curious to see how Allie Z does this year. And Caroline!

 

[NYFan]

I would slide Caroline up the list, maybe as high as 5. She already has starter's experience, knows the UConn system, and has seniority. I hate to say it, but I think she will either be healthy and either starting or being one of the first off the bench, or she will be injured and unable to play; I don't think it is likely she will be one of the last off the bench or only play garbage minutes this year...

 

[RockyMTblue2]

You are all rounding into really good preseason shape. Can't wait.

 

[Bone Dog]

I think Ayanna is a threat to the playing time of both Ice and Morgan because she is a really strong rebounder. Ice and Morgan are better shooters, but they don’t put up a lot of shots. I’m also very curious to see how Allie Z does this year. And Caroline!

Ayanna has almost a thousand days of rust to knock off her game, and it was a limited game even then. I think she’ll be equivalent to a raw freshman this year. Not a threat to anyone ahead of her. Her real shot will come next year when I suspect she’ll come roaring back.

 

[NycUcWbbFan]

NycUcWbbFan, interesting chart. Thanks for doing this.

As a stats guy, I am interested in the assumptions behind the numbers. Specifically, over a 40 game season, who are your six Group A opponents? Two Final Four, one Elite Eight, and one Sweet Sixteen, presumably take up four of the six.

What about the Big East championship?

During the season there are games with Louisville, Ohio State, Florida State, Michigan, Utah, USC, Iowa, Notre Dame and Tennessee. All nine have the potential to host the first two rounds and therefore the potential to make it to the SS, in my opinion. Which of these games make the Group A cut?

The assumptions for the WAG (Wild A## Guess) time prognostication model is heavily influenced by the following considerations:

• (a) Next season’s team is a defending champion mix-match 2.0 team whose top 11 players favorably compare to this past season’s top 9/10 players ( with the traditional lineup being another winning time combination this season in addition to the small ball lineup) that romped through the NCAAT;
• (b) As such, the “championship metamorphosis” time is somewhere between DT’s improbable 2nd championship and this past season’s Zero-to-South Carolina ramp to any of the six undefeated championship teams (most notably Senior TASSK+DT team and the Senior BMM team);
• (c) Geno and CD’s “basketball player” farm system cumulates and they have shown remarkable consistency in consecutive Final Four and beyond success when they have strung up consecutive superb rosters when not hampered by injuries;
• (d) Geno gets serious with games that really matter, i.e. BET and NCAAT games;
• (e) Geno has shown experimentation ranginess in “worthless” games (I’ll leave it at this, to keep it short) but does get very serious in late season OOC litmus tests.

Per these considerations (and your mileage may vary), I consider the following games in Group A:

• Elite 8 game and up (3 games);
• BET final (because it is also an endurance test);
• TN game (2/1/2026);
• I pencilled in South Carolina (I did the model before the OOC schedule came out); so there is one floater — unexpected tough — game.

Again, your mileage may vary.

In addition to your question, this is probably an opportune time to provide color to the per-40 competitive time assumptions;

• There are six championship starter / former starter veterans who Geno presumably trusts (Azzi, Sarah, KK, Ash, Ice, Jana) and all except Jana and Ice are essential to all families of winning time combinations (out of the C(15,3) = 3,003 combinations— it should be noted that Geno and CD had to simplify things this past season);
• In addition, Azzi and Sarah are the most lethal in all combinations, and by extension, the most dominant at their positions in those combinations;
• Then there are “hopeful trust” players whose playing time is also dictated by opportunity at their positions: Serah, Blanca, Caroline and Kayleigh; Serah is the 5 on the traditional lineup and perhaps 5A or 5B (like Blanca) in the small lineup;
• The biggest time casualty this past season with the late full emergence of the small ball winning time combination was Ice; this year, Serah will diminish Jana’s time as the 5 in the traditional lineup; I don’t think, and I could be wrong, that Ice or Jana are suited to be Sarah’s backup in small ball;
• Ash is a mix-match do-the-little things glue player; in small ball, she is Azzi’s complement — another 2/3 that Geno also tasked to be a rebounder to free up Azzi as the designated floor spacer that can go the shortest distance between 3-pt lines;
• Kayleigh is a small conundrum; is she, a 2nd-year guard who excelled in U19 (whose coach misused Sarah), comparable to graduate transfer Kaitlyn who took some time to acclimate to Geno’s system? In other words, is she an equal time point guard with KK? Kaitlyn did impress Geno in a head-to-head game while at Princeton;
• There was consideration given to optimizing performance by judicious time limits, e.g. Serah, Blanca and Caroline;
• There were also mix-match considerations; For example, for Group A opponents: KK’s and Kayleigh’s minutes < 40, Azzi’s and Ash’s minutes > 40, Blanca’s and Caroline’s minutes < 40, Sarah’s and Ice’s minutes > 40, Serah’s and Jana’s minutes < 40;
• And yes, I provided for the possibility that Azzi is the point guard in a Big Lineup;
• As mentioned by others, Morgan is a conundrum; she and Ayanna and Allie are at the competitive time fault line, and all three can be major rotation players for many other teams.

Again, the preseason WAG (guess) above is meant to be illustrative — a conversation starter. The collection of considerations above and expressed by others in several threads were unhelpfully self-looping that led me to do a simple crude model to sort it out. It is an armchair simile of the beautiful headache Geno and CD have for this coming season.

 

[Blue Huskie]

No need for in depth analysis this soon. Obviously the experienced players will get the majority of the minutes early on and others will integrate according to their skills but especially by their ability to learn and show effort in practice. Among the newcomers it's impossible to predict this.

 

[RockyMTblue2]

Ayanna has almost a thousand days of rust to knock off her game, and it was a limited game even then. I think she’ll be equivalent to a raw freshman this year. Not a threat to anyone ahead of her. Her real shot will come next year when I suspect she’ll come roaring back.

Her persaverance has been pretty amazing. True grit. And the journey is not over as you say.

 

[Bone Dog]

And yes, I provided for the possibility that Azzi is the point guard in a Big Lineup;

I’m willing to go out on a limb and suggest that Azzi will spend almost no time at pg. Geno has more important things for her to do, as you suggest in your bullet point on Ash.

 

[Cuango]

I’m hoping Allie has been getting herself in really good shape physically and working on her defense. I watched a bunch of her games at Neenah and I am convinced she’s got the goods to really help this team if she can diversify her game a little. She was quite a good midrange shooter and was a fearless and aggressive driver to the hole in HS! I believe she will open some eyes if she can get in top shape and get some real playing time early in the season. She is a great scorer and has the ability to absolutely rain threes. I realize many here doubt her but I’m totally pulling for her! (I’m not of course, implying that any doubters would not be happy to be wrong) we just have sooo much talent on this roster that playing time is inevitably going to be difficult to get!

 

[Charliebball]

I’m hoping Allie has been getting herself in really good shape physically and working on her defense. I watched a bunch of her games at Neenah and I am convinced she’s got the goods to really help this team if she can diversify her game a little. She was quite a good midrange shooter and was a fearless and aggressive driver to the hole in HS! I believe she will open some eyes if she can get in top shape and get some real playing time early in the season. She is a great scorer and has the ability to absolutely rain threes. I realize many here doubt her but I’m totally pulling for her! (I’m not of course, implying that any doubters would not be happy to be wrong) we just have sooo much talent on this roster that playing time is inevitably going to be difficult to get!

Allie will be the insurance policy just in case Azzi gets hurt again...........she's the next best three-point shooter on the team....

 

[Bone Dog]

Allie will be the insurance policy just in case Azzi gets hurt again...........she's the next best three-point shooter on the team....

I’m with you and @Cuango on Allie. I’m really pulling for her and saw exactly the same things in her high school games. But I’d say the second best 3 pt shooter on the team is Sarah, not Allie. Her stats were depressed a bit by the incredible cold streak she was on in the first few games. Take those out of the equation and she’s a 40%+ shooter. Plus, she does it even under duress in close games.

 

[Charliebball]

I’m with you and @Cuango on Allie. I’m really pulling for her and saw exactly the same things in her high school games. But I’d say the second best 3 pt shooter on the team is Sarah, not Allie. Her stats were depressed a bit by the incredible cold streak she was on in the first few games. Take those out of the equation and she’s a 40%+ shooter. Plus, she does it even under duress in close games.

Certainly, Sara has proven to be the better shooter so far in game situations but even Azzi has said that Allie is her equal as a shooter......playing limited minutes hasn't made it easy so far but I have a feeling we'll see more of the real Allie this season....