I agree with your overall point that SC has a deep and talented roster. And I think the bolded statement is worth reflecting on. Dawn mainly brings 3 off the bench, Edwards, Fulwiley and Johnson. I suspect Edwards is probably as good as any of the starters already. She could definitely start ahead of Feagin. And I think Tessa will become a key player in March, and has been wonderful in a few games already. She could definitely start ahead of Bree. Fulwiley could probably start for any top-25 team in D1. Her offense is dazzling and her defense, while uneven, can be great too. But I wonder if there isn’t a good reason Dawn doesn’t start her. She’s the only member of the rotation that may not be an upgrade over the starters.
I think we matchup pretty well against Dawn’s starters. Kitts has been their leading scorer lately, but the top-5 scorers on the team is very even. I don’t think Chloe is really a match for Sarah. But if Sarah has to guard Joyce, it gets more complicated, as we may see Morgan trying to defend Kitts. Feagin and Joyce are probably too much for Jana and Ice right now. This might shift a little over the next month, but I’m not confident how much. Will Tac and Dauda see any minutes against us in that game? maybe, but they don’t look to be able to dominate Jana and Ice.
For the first time in a while, the issue for UConn in a game against SC will be the backcourt, not the frontcourt. Paige & Azzi are as good as their best. But Kaitlyn KK and Ash may not be up to the challenge of stopping Raven Tessa Bree Milaysia and Te-hina. That’s a tall order. Can Morgan and Allie find a way to contribute in this game? If Morgan’s main assignment was merely to shut down Chloe, and thereby free up Sarah to deal with Joyce or Sania, that could go a long way. But currently, I don’t have confidence in that matchup for Morgan, not yet.
Our best hope may be for KK and Ash to play the best defense of their lives, for Paige Azzi and Sarah to shoot well, and for Jana to avoid fouling and to up her rebounding game. That alone would make us competitive with SC. No guarantee of a win — it would still be a huge upset. But it’s not inconceivable. And as
@Tonyc might say, the Tennessee game is appropriate preparation for the SC game.