Way too early bracketology

[Carnac]

ND #7 seed in Austin ...big improvement LOL

I expect ND to be much better than last year, and even better the year after that. ND had one bad year. No program could have endured what they did and come out smelling like a rose. No leadership, no chemistry and no experience. Too many no's for that team to be successful. We'll never see ND lose 18 games again in our lifetime.

Don't fool yourself into thinking that because she doesn't have any head coaching experience, that's going to retard her progress. Muffet is still right there should she need her. Neile has her on speed dial. I'm sure they'll talk everyday. Ivey has been in the co-pilot's seat long enough. She's been looking over Muffet's shoulder for years. She's ready to slide over into the captain's chair and take control. No doubt the returning players on the roster (and the incoming freshmen) are excited to play for her.

I doubt they'll lose double digit games in any season under Ivey's watch. This past season was an aberration to be sure. Even though I'm NOT a ND fan by any means, I fully expect Neile to return ND to national prominence in short order, and keep them there, such as Dawn Staley has done with South Carolina. Ivey won't have any trouble recruiting the nation's top recruits to South Bend.

I don't like Muffet because of her constant sniping (and incessant whining) at Geno every time the opportunity manifested itself. I danced a jig every time we beat her. I have nothing against Neile. I wish her all the luck in the world EXCEPT when they play UConn. I might even start to root for Neile and ND (I can't believe I said that ). I hope the games with ND continue well into the foreseeable future. These games are good for both teams, and always generate a lot of fan and media interest, as well as revenue.

 

[bballnut90]

I didn't know that. But those conferences had more than 4 teams in. When you get 8 teams in like the SEC has done that's 2 per region at best.

True. But they're not as likely to spread a conference with 4 teams in across all 4 regionals unless they're all top 4 seeds.

If you look at the Big East specifically, you have:
2016: 3 teams in, 2 played in Dallas
2017: 3 teams in, 2 played in Stockton
2018: 4 teams in, 2 played in Spokane
2019: 2 teams in, 2 played in Chicago

So realistically 3 in the same regional from the Big East may be less likely as @MSGRET indicated, but I don't think it'll be a shock if it happens considering all of the other factors the committee has to take into account. Here's another good article I found explaining the general steps to seeding:

NCAA.org - The Official Site of the NCAA

www.ncaa.org

 

[Carnac]

also, this linked article explains some of the seedings by Charlie

Women's Bracketology: Transfers, coaching changes impact first 2020-21 bracket

Maryland's transfers, Destiny Slocum's move to Arkansas and new homes for Vic Schaefer and Niele Ivey had a domino effect on the bracket.

www.espn.com

The UConn blurb is here

But despite losing Megan Walker a year sooner than expected to the WNBA and Crystal Dangerfield to graduation, UConn looks like the team that gets the most upside. Even though the Huskies haven't gained any transfers, they move up as others fall back.

Before the upheaval at Maryland and Mississippi State, UConn was projected as a No. 2 seed, just as it likely would have been had the 2020 NCAA tournament been played. The Huskies now are back on the No. 1 line (No. 3 overall) and seeded in comfortable territory in the Albany Regional.

HoopGurlz's second-ranked recruiting class, led by No. 1 overall prospect Paige Bueckers, helps offset the personnel losses and coach Geno Auriemma still has Christyn Williams, Olivia Nelson-Ododa and Aubrey Griffin.


Hey Charlie. How about Ana???

Good read, thanks eebmg. Good information to know if we're going to critique this coming season's teams.

 

[Kaizen]

So the East region is back to Albany 2021?

 

[bballnut90]

I expect ND to be much better than last year, and even better the year after that. ND had one bad year. No program could have come out smelling like a rose losing their entire starting 5 like ND did. No leadership, no chemistry and no experience. Too many no's for that team to be successful. We'll never see ND lose 18 games again in our lifetime. I doubt they'll lose double digits games in any season under Ivey's tenure. This past season was an aberration to be sure.

I agree. Last season they not only lost their starting 5 but they also went a long stretch without their top 4 other contributors from 2019 due to injury/transfer. For a long time their only returnees were Danielle Cosgrove (who scored 37 points in 2019) and a walk on (Cole). The only parallel I can think of was Tennessee in 2009 after they graduated 5 senior starters and then lost 2 projected starters to injury, leaving a young and inexperienced team that struggled for Tennessee standards. The next year though they went 32-3 and were back as a #1 seed. Notre Dame's struggles were more extreme than Tennessee's and their talent pool isn't as deep as Tennessee's was, but I do think they'll be a LOT better next year if everyone is healthy. The team improved once February hit even though they still obviously weren't very good.

Each of Peoples/Brunelle/Gilbert have star power, their incoming freshmen may become strong glue players, Prohaska is a glue player and Vaughn gives them experience in the post. This may be optimistic but I could see them as a top 10-15 team if things come together for Ivey and co. Last year was truly a hurricane of bad events for them.

 

[bballnut90]

I don’t see either team being better than Baylor next year or good enough to bump them from the Austin regional. Next year will probably be more interesting than this past year being so many talented player graduated. It’s going to be fun to watch the younger players step up to be the next face of WCBB.

Agreed. I'm expecting this year's stellar freshman class to make their mark and emerge as stars next year. Baylor is still going to have a stronghold on Austin and be a title threat IMO. Smith/Egbo will be one of the top front court tandems and Richards might be the most underrated player in the nation. Also worth noting, Ursin/T. Oliver/J. Oliver/Bickle quietly did very well in limited minutes throughout the year. I think each will play a more prominent role with 3 starters graduating and the overall team drop off wont be as steep as it appears at first glance.

 

[BobbyJ]

Ana... how about Evina? ESPN recently listed her as a potential POY candidate. Sometimes I wonder about Charlie’s homework. That’s a pretty big miss!

Charlie's homework involves a dart board, team logos, and player's names.

 

[Carnac]

Charlie's homework involves a dart board, team logos, and player's names.

.....and a blindfold. Don't forget the blindfold!!

 

[Geesworld]

I would love to see Oregon coming all the way east as the 3rd seed.

 

[MSGRET]

For the men's tournament, these are rules I found:
Each of the first four teams selected from a conference shall be placed in different regions if they are seeded on the first four lines.

Teams from the same conference shall not meet prior to the regional final if they played each other three or more times during the regular season and conference tournament.

Teams from the same conference shall not meet prior to the regional semifinals if they played each other twice during the regular season and conference tournament.

Teams from the same conference may play each other as early as the second round if they played no more than once during the regular season and conference tournament.

I know the first point holds true on the women's side, but I'm not sure about the bottom 3. Regarding keeping it to 2 conference teams per regional, I just did a little research of last few years and if it's the rule, it doesn't often hold true:

2019:
-3 ACC Teams in Portland and Greensboro
-3 SEC Teams in Greensboro
-3 Big Ten Teams in Albany

2018:
-4 ACC Teams in Albany
-3 Big Ten Teams in Kansas City

2017:
-3 SEC Teams in OKC

2016:
-3 Big Ten Teams in Lexington
-3 SEC Teams in Sioux Falls (forced to with 9 teams from SEC)

If the rules are the same for the women's side it still would be hard to put three in one bracket due to the Big East having a home and home regular season. Also at least two if not three may have played each other in the Conference Tournament. If that happens there can be no more than two in a bracket.

 

[bballnut90]

If the rules are the same for the women's side it still would be hard to put three in one bracket due to the Big East having a home and home regular season. Also at least two if not three may have played each other in the Conference Tournament. If that happens there can be no more than two in a bracket.

I dont believe that rule holds a lot of weight on the women's side since UCONN/USF were in the same regional a few years in a row despite meeting 3x prior to the tournament. Each of those years they easily could have put USF in a separate bracket.

My takeaway is that their primary goal is avoiding top 4 seeds within the same conference from meeting up prior to the Final Four, or at worst Elite 8. The rest of the teams being in separate brackets seem lower priority since they're unlikely to advance far enough to play each other.

 

[Steelerone]

More than that - the Big East with 4 teams in. Almost ready to go up against the traditional power conferences for numbers...

I know we were starting to see AAC schools improve and land better recruits, but now as far as I'm concerned, that conference can rot away. Hopefully the Big East now sees bumps in talent and rankings since UCONN has joined...

Eric, I think our move to the AAC actually helped other teams in their recruiting process just as it will now assist the teams in the Big East. Sorry to say because I know the other young ladies on teams in the AAC really want things to improve but this is going to have the same impact on them as Texas or Oklahoma leaving the Big 12 in football.

 

[cbraarj]

I agree. Last season they not only lost their starting 5 but they also went a long stretch without their top 4 other contributors from 2019 due to injury/transfer. For a long time their only returnees were Danielle Cosgrove (who scored 37 points in 2019) and a walk on (Cole). The only parallel I can think of was Tennessee in 2009 after they graduated 5 senior starters and then lost 2 projected starters to injury, leaving a young and inexperienced team that struggled for Tennessee standards. The next year though they went 32-3 and were back as a #1 seed. Notre Dame's struggles were more extreme than Tennessee's and their talent pool isn't as deep as Tennessee's was, but I do think they'll be a LOT better next year if everyone is healthy. The team improved once February hit even though they still obviously weren't very good.

Each of Peoples/Brunelle/Gilbert have star power, their incoming freshmen may become strong glue players, Prohaska is a glue player and Vaughn gives them experience in the post. This may be optimistic but I could see them as a top 10-15 team if things come together for Ivey and co. Last year was truly a hurricane of bad events for them.

UConn lost 4 of the first 6 players to the WNBA draft in 2002! Then lost Nicole Wolfe to injury. Starting pg and still won the NC after going 37-1!

 

[HopJim]

Women's Bracketology: LSU, Iowa open on top line, but UConn is No. 1 overall

LSU and Iowa open as top seeds along with UConn and Utah. The Huskies are No. 1 overall in our first projection for 2023-24.

www.espn.com

With all the negative press Charlie gets, thank you for coming out with this now. May agree or not but great to have some interesting basketball news to discuss.

 

[bballnut90]

UConn lost 4 of the first 6 players to the WNBA draft in 2002! Then lost Nicole Wolfe to injury. Starting pg and still won the NC after going 37-1!

Not quite the same since they still returned DT and three other rotation players from 2002's undefeated team (plus the #1 incoming class), but still remarkable nonetheless.

 

[HopJim]

I agree. Last season they not only lost their starting 5 but they also went a long stretch without their top 4 other contributors from 2019 due to injury/transfer. For a long time their only returnees were Danielle Cosgrove (who scored 37 points in 2019) and a walk on (Cole). The only parallel I can think of was Tennessee in 2009 after they graduated 5 senior starters and then lost 2 projected starters to injury, leaving a young and inexperienced team that struggled for Tennessee standards. The next year though they went 32-3 and were back as a #1 seed. Notre Dame's struggles were more extreme than Tennessee's and their talent pool isn't as deep as Tennessee's was, but I do think they'll be a LOT better next year if everyone is healthy. The team improved once February hit even though they still obviously weren't very good.

Each of Peoples/Brunelle/Gilbert have star power, their incoming freshmen may become strong glue players, Prohaska is a glue player and Vaughn gives them experience in the post. This may be optimistic but I could see them as a top 10-15 team if things come together for Ivey and co. Last year was truly a hurricane of bad events for them.

While I too have had adult beverages during my time at home, none have made me this positive about anything. Agree ND could be Top 20 team this coming year and potentially Top 10 the year after. Still coming off extremely bad mojo past year and exceptionally young team the next two years. Nothing is a given.

 

[mbr33ct]

Not so incredibly slim. Top 16 teams host and the rule prohibits 2 top 16 conference teams being in the same region, and if that's not possible (5 teams from one conference in the top 16) then they are not to meet until the E8. A one and four seed from the same conference would meet in the S16 and a 9 seed would face a 1 seed in the second round so Creme got it all fouled up. He ends up correcting his mistakes later. I think there is also mention of teams playing for a third time. Since the BE plays H&H it's likely that a NCAA meetup would be their 4th game. UConn and N Dame had that 4th game in 2012 & 2013. The winner of the first 3 lost the 4th in both years.

After seeing the bracket I see that it's the "other" 3 BE teams that all get up in the Spokane region.

Must be Round 2 of the Big East Tournament!

 

[CamrnCrz1974]

HoopGurlz's second-ranked recruiting class, led by No. 1 overall prospect Paige Bueckers, helps offset the personnel losses and coach Geno Auriemma still has Christyn Williams, Olivia Nelson-Ododa and Aubrey Griffin.

Hey Charlie. How about Ana???

Technically they do have a transfer... Westbrook

Gotta love Charlie...failed to mention 2 likely starters, Evina and Ana...

Actually, Creme *did* mention Evina Westbrook. The full quote:
HoopGurlz's second-ranked recruiting class, led by No. 1 overall prospect Paige Bueckers, helps offset the personnel losses and coach Geno Auriemma still has Christyn Williams, Olivia Nelson-Ododa and Aubrey Griffin. Plus, Evina Westbrook will be eligible after sitting out this past season.

Regarding the "not gaining any transfers" comment, he was referring to this offseason - e.g., grad transfers.

Regarding Makurat, with all due, he mentioned the top UConn recruiting class - naming the headline player in doing so - as well as listing three returning players and one key newcomer. The only team with more players listed was Maryland -- and some of those on the Terrapins' list were players who were transferring out of the program.

UConn lost 4 of the first 6 players to the WNBA draft in 2002! Then lost Nicole Wolfe to injury. Starting pg and still won the NC after going 37-1!

With all due, having Taurasi back and the #1 recruiting class coming in certainly helped. But it was incredible what Taruasi and UConn were able to do after losing so much to graduation (Duke and Tennessee looked to be better teams on paper, yet UConn emerged as the NCAAT champion).

This -- the 2002-03 reason -- is why whenever someone posts about the "best ever" at UConn, I always pick Taurasi. What she did that season truly separates herself from the other UConn greats.

 

[ucbart]

To me, the biggest thing here is Syracuse as a 6 seed.

If Mangakahia comes back 100%(and the local news just did a story on her rehab in Australia that sounded promising), the freshman contribute right away and Engstler makes the giant junior leap to match her talent, they could win the ACC and be a 2 seed.

I know that's a lot of 'ifs' but man, on paper they look gooooood.

 

[eebmg]

To me, the biggest thing here is Syracuse as a 6 seed.

If Mangakahia comes back 100%(and the local news just did a story on her rehab in Australia that sounded promising), the freshman contribute right away and Engstler makes the giant junior leap to match her talent, they could win the ACC and be a 2 seed.

I know that's a lot of 'ifs' but man, on paper they look gooooood.

Talent yes but what about the Q factor. Gimmick Offense / Gimmick Defense. I know they got to the the finals in 2016 but well prepared teams will carve up the traps and Bombs away shooting cools off under pressure.

 

[ucbart]

Talent yes but what about the Q factor. Gimmick Offense / Gimmick Defense. I know they got to the the finals in 2016 but well prepared teams will carve up the traps and Bombs away shooting cools off under pressure.

Agree-but I went to most Syracuse games this year. He played far less players, the offense looked a little better, and when they can press, they're better on D than that dumb zone he plays.

And I'll be honest, he just has never had any post players, always just good guards. Now, he has Cardoso coming in and a stud wing in Priscilla Williams.

 

[oldhusky]

From what I can tell Charlie is not a Uconn friend and ESPN's recruiting class rankings are pretty much worthless if your school has a significant foreign recruit. So maybe not mentioning Anna just fits in, she wasn't very relevant as a recruit because ESPN can't or won't even try to make a accurate assessment of foreign players.

It bothers me that a source so often referenced as one of the major ones for recruiting information doesn't even try to get this right. It is not a minor oversight but rather a major flaw in their product.

My feelings about Charlie are mostly related to how he had us seeded for this year. It turns out it didn't matter, but this year there was potentially a big difference in being ranked 5th overall and the highest 2 seed, and everything lower than that.

There were three teams this year that were clearly a notch above the next tier, and we lost to all three. Frankly the odds of getting to the final four by beating one of those three teams was not good. Our best or most probable path involved either getting the 4th number one seed, or playing and beating that seed if we were ranked as the 5th best overall, and the highest second seed.

Normally the highest ranked 1 seed winds up in the same bracket as the lowest ranked 2 seed, and the lowest ranked 1 seed would be in the the same bracket as the highest ranked 2 seed. So if we could achieve an overall rank of 4th ( last 1 seed) or 5th ( highest 2 seed) we could probably avoid having to beat South Carolina, Oregon, or Baylor to get into the final four for the 13th consecutive season.

Most years the differences would be small, but given this amazing final four streak, and the dominance of the top three teams, I'm upset he would abandon that concept for geographic reasons (too many Pac 12 teams in the west) and pretty much say it doesn't matter if you are the 5th best team, you don't get to be in the same bracket as the 4th ranked team, you have to go thru one of the top 3.

If we were 6th or lower we don't deserve the easier path, but I believe you could have made a case for us as the 4th number 1 seed, and if we were not the 5th overall and highest second seed I think that would be robbing us of our deserved place, something Charlie would happily do.