I think the playoff expansion basically cements that at least the P5, and maybe some additional schools in the G5, could be players in the post-NIL world. This season we are still seeing the residuals of a world where reputation and in the case of SEC schools and a few others, the willingness to cheat, drove recruiting. But now boosters paying players is no longer cheating, and so the SEC no longer has the huge recruiting advantage that it had in the past. You can see reputation slipping away with Texas sliding to mediocrity and Oklahoma leaving the elite. Texas' problems are mostly self-inflicted, but Oklahoma has some competitive disadvantages that could result in a long-term decline relative to where the program has been historically.
It is important not to conflate the TV contracts with NIL. While many of the P2 schools will be among the leaders in the NIL game, the TV money goes to the school, not the players. NIL money goes to the players.
I think the recruiting drivers will be:
1) Money - obviously. Tradition and reputation and proximity to home will be less important in recruiting than they were in the past. The ability of schools to generate local booster support to drive NIL money will be paramount.
2) Opportunity to play - you need to play to get really paid in an NIL world. A 4* or even 5* kid in the old model would be willing to ride the bench at Auburn or Clemson or Alabama because he was getting paid so what did he care? Going forward, a kid could make a lot more money starting at UNC or Texas Tech than he could riding the pine at a Top 5 school.
3) Opportunity to be seen - These 4* and 5* kids will want to play on good teams that have a shot at the playoffs. The 16 team conference model basically banishes the bottom half of the league to permanent competitive Siberia. No one is going to want to watch a 3-9 South Carolina team play anyone. But schools like Cincinnati and Baylor and Houston and Pitt and Oregon and Washington and (if they ever get out of their own way) Miami and Florida State have a clear path to the playoffs. I think this will change the way teams schedule. Kids will not want to play in a Minnesota/Generic FCS school game. The middle of the pack programs in particular are going to need to schedule good opponents in the non-conference to attract players.
4) Access to the Playoffs - the NCAA basketball is already broadly available to all the P5 teams, and I don't see a lot changing in terms of access for the near future so access won't be a competitive recruiting advantage for anyone. The move to a 16 team playoff dramatically expands access for a lot of schools that were consistently just missing. Establishing a program in the top half of a conference is important, although I think realistic access could extend a bit beyond that. For example, I don't see Minnesota consistently being in the Top half of the Big 10, but I could see that program occasionally getting a playoff bid. Schools like Rutgers and Indiana will have a hard time selling playoff access because the hill is just too high to climb for those programs. No one will care about the bowls going forward, so the bottom feeders in the P2 and P5 could have a hard time being even remotely competitive. The G5 will be interesting, but I don't have a great theory for what will drive their success going forward.
5) Urban markets - Cities generally have more rich people and more corporations that can fund NIL, so the cities will have a natural advantage. In basketball, playing in big markets will be a huge advantage in recruiting because urban markets generally have more basketball fans. I think the mid-sized cities in particular could do well because they are too small to get pro teams but they are still big enough to have enough corporations and wealthy people to support a top tier athletic program. Long-term Texas and Ohio State should have a big advantage over the other top programs in the P2. Outside the P2, I like Miami (if they can get their act together) UNC, Pitt, Oregon, Washington, Houston, BYU, Cincinnati and Louisville in all sports and all the Big East schools in basketball to stay competitive. Schools like Mississippi State, Indiana, and Mississippi could struggle in the new model. UNLV is a program to watch, because there is so much money in Vegas that it could become nationally competitive overnight in hoops and football if the locals got behind it. Boise and Memphis are two others to watch.
Things that are no longer a meaningful advantage in recruiting:
1) Prime TV slots - with streaming and people cutting the cord, anyone can watch any game they want from wherever they want. The old prestige of the 3:30 Saturday slot or Big Monday in basketball are much less valuable now.
2) Conference prestige - I think conference prestige matters a lot in hoops. Players want to play against the best because those are the games that get watched. I see less of an advantage for football, and if the other factors end up mattering more as I predict above, conference affiliation could be a net negative. Over time, NIL will spread talent and that could also dilute the television revenue advantage of the P2.
3) Tradition - Tradition has mattered less over time, but still had somewhat of a hold as a signal to top recruits of where other top recruits were going. Now, NIL is driving it, and recruits will have agents that can help them navigate the recruiting landscape. Nebraska is in a lot of trouble on this score. No recruit will remember when Nebraska was a top program, and being outside a city and in a conference with an established top tier, Nebraska could struggle to ever regain his traditional footing.