Was the Alston case (NIL) the trigger for this round of realignment?

[nelsonmuntz]

The NIL case may have been a driver to the effort to potentially wipe out 1/3 of the P5 plus everyone else. NIL money would make it much harder for programs to stockpile talent, because players have to play to get paid. A 5* will be a lot less willing to be a backup on Alabama instead of going to Mississippi or even UCF and starting immediately. And getting paid.

So if you are one of the college football superpowers, how do you maintain your control over the top recruits? Wipe out your competition by aligning with the other top programs so you will have all the power in recruiting.

NIL is such a game changer to recruiting that I can see why the SEC and Texas/Oklahoma have to move now. If they wait 5 years, the talent could be dispersed so broadly that 15-20 schools will no longer dominate recruiting like they do now. And that could cost them in revenue as other schools emerge or simply the teams at the top turn over more rapidly.

 

[SubbaBub]

Most of the current P5 TV deals end in 2026. If you are looking to leave with the least amount of hassle (scheduling, new media deal), now is the time to talk. This probably leaked before UT wanted it to, but it was always going to come out.

If they waited until 2023/4, they would have been in the Pitt position of leading a media negotiation while simultaneously negotiating to leave, harming said media deal. How they weren't sued for punitive damages is beyond me, but the B12 teams would not have let that go.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Most of the current P5 TV deals end in 2026. If you are looking to leave with the least amount of hassle (scheduling, new media deal), now is the time to talk. This probably leaked before UT wanted it to, but it was always going to come out.

If they waited until 2023/4, they would have been in the Pitt position of leading a media negotiation while simultaneously negotiating to leave, harming said media deal. How they weren't sued for punitive damages is beyond me, but the B12 teams would not have let that go.

They have 4 years left on a GOR. Texas and Oklahoma had plenty of time to make a decision, but they moved now. I suspect they are already seeing the impact of NIL in recruiting.

 

[UConnSportsGuy]

They have 4 years left on a GOR. Texas and Oklahoma had plenty of time to make a decision, but they moved now. I suspect they are already seeing the impact of NIL in recruiting.

The rumor is that this wasn’t supposed to go forward now. But Texas A&M just got word and leaked it to the Houston paper to try to get it out there and get the Texas politicians to put a halt to the SEC move.

But now that it is out there, it is accelerating the Texas/OU timeline.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Player compensation lawsuit vs. NCAA could usher in new round of conference realignment - CBSSports.com

Alston was 100% the trigger for this, and I am not as smart as I thought I was. Administrators were talking about this 3 years ago as that case was working its way to the Supreme Court.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The problem with this power play is that it might not work. Alston is such a game changer that all these schools may be merging up for no reason at all because at the end of the day the schools aren't paying the players, the players are earning the money on their own. It is not clear that schools can pay players beyond the current restrictions.

If the schools can't restrict the talent, then the talent will just find someplace that it can play immediately and start generating NIL income.

 

[huskymedic]

The rumor is that this wasn’t supposed to go forward now. But Texas A&M just got word and leaked it to the Houston paper to try to get it out there and get the Texas politicians to put a halt to the SEC move.

But now that it is out there, it is accelerating the Texas/OU timeline.

Well, it has mobilized Texas politicians as you may imagine:

Texas Lawmakers Concerned About UT Leaving Big 12 Conference Make Their Case To Abbott

Four prominent lawmakers — one each with ties to Baylor University, Texas Christian University, Texas Tech University and Texas A&M University — met with Gov. Greg Abbott’s staff Thursday, one day after news broke that the University of Texas and the University of Oklahoma had reached out to the...

www.kut.org

... but as Frank the Tank pointed out earlier today, the Gov may have the rodeo clowns completely under control:

Frank the Tank @frankthetank111 2h
Interesting tidbit here: UT Board of Regents chair Kevin Eltife has been driving the talks with the SEC as opposed to the president’s office. He was appointed by Gov. Abbott and formerly a GOP member of the Texas Senate, so this might explain why this seems smoother politically.

 

[WestHartHusk]

They have 4 years left on a GOR. Texas and Oklahoma had plenty of time to make a decision, but they moved now. I suspect they are already seeing the impact of NIL in recruiting.

That and petro dollars will dry up soon, a particularly painful reality for OK i would imagine. Might as well strike now.

 

[The Funster]

The problem with this power play is that it might not work. Alston is such a game changer that all these schools may be merging up for no reason at all because at the end of the day the schools aren't paying the players, the players are earning the money on their own. It is not clear that schools can pay players beyond the current restrictions.

If the schools can't restrict the talent, then the talent will just find someplace that it can play immediately and start generating NIL income.

That will be part of the "in home visit", to go over marketing opportunities for the prospect. Here's the portfolio for our area, we're also referred to as "the 6th borough so there will be opportunities in the City...

 

[huskymedic]

Well, it has mobilized Texas politicians as you may imagine:

Texas Lawmakers Concerned About UT Leaving Big 12 Conference Make Their Case To Abbott

Four prominent lawmakers — one each with ties to Baylor University, Texas Christian University, Texas Tech University and Texas A&M University — met with Gov. Greg Abbott’s staff Thursday, one day after news broke that the University of Texas and the University of Oklahoma had reached out to the...

www.kut.org

... but as Frank the Tank pointed out earlier today, the Gov may have the rodeo clowns completely under control:

Frank the Tank @frankthetank111 2h
Interesting tidbit here: UT Board of Regents chair Kevin Eltife has been driving the talks with the SEC as opposed to the president’s office. He was appointed by Gov. Abbott and formerly a GOP member of the Texas Senate, so this might explain why this seems smoother politically.

They are moving into the neighborhood and we can’t do anything about it.



(Edit add - easier to read in one tweet)

 

[nelsonmuntz]

That will be part of the "in home visit", to go over marketing opportunities for the prospect. Here's the portfolio for our area, we're also referred to as "the 6th borough so there will be opportunities in the City...

You are 1000% right.

Let's pretend UConn football had a coach that wasn't a complete dud. He walks into a recruits living room, but doesn't talk about facilities or tradition, he opens a portfolio and starts talking about marketing opportunities. The recruit can go to South Carolina or Florida and sit on the bench for 3-4 years and hope to get paid down the road, or he can come to UConn and start earning now. Honestly, we wouldn't want the kid that didn't want to start earning now.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Paige Bueckers and Azzi Fudd could be our shining lights for recruiting. If two women's basketball players crack $1MM a year, UConn could be off to the races.

 

[WestCoastHusky]

Paige Bueckers and Azzi Fudd could be our shining lights for recruiting. If two women's basketball players crack $1MM a year, UConn could be off to the races.

This. Uconn really needs to focus on getting top athletes like Paige and Azzi top NIL dollars to show the world true marketing potential of the Uconn brand.

On the football side, UConn really needs to improve its football brand to sign a much better football media deal than what we got now. Uconn needs to get a football deal close to $10M+ per year to show value of the brand. Uconn should also be focusing on helping football players get more NIL deals since potential huge NIL deals will be a huge recruiting tool in the coming years.

How long is our current football media contract with SNY and CBS Sports? I really hope it's year to year so we can get out anytime. I honestly think Uconn should be focusing on getting back its T3 rights from the Big East prior to the next Big East media deal. Once we have our T3 rights back along with FB rights, we should be talking to one of the tech companies for a subscription channel. The streaming channel can be free for some content and monthly subscription for premium content. At $5 per sub per month, Uconn will need to get 167K subs to get to $10M per year revenue.

 

[hoopsfan22]

If we're pinning our hopes on women's basketball we're more screwed than we realize. In three years when Geno retires and Paige and Azzi are off to the pros, then what?

 

[Waquoit]

Paige Bueckers and Azzi Fudd could be our shining lights for recruiting. If two women's basketball players crack $1MM a year, UConn could be off to the races.

This is why WBB does matter.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

If we're pinning our hopes on women's basketball we're more screwed than we realize. In three years when Geno retires and Paige and Azzi are off to the pros, then what?

You think UConn sucks and is finished. We heard you the first 10 times.

 

[WestCoastHusky]

If we're pinning our hopes on women's basketball we're more screwed than we realize. In three years when Geno retires and Paige and Azzi are off to the pros, then what?

That's where you are wrong. If women's basketball can draw eyeballs with some willing to pay for it, it is worth a ton. I am pretty sure there are at least over 200K people across the USA that are willing to pay $5 per month for an UCONN channel just to watch some UCONN women basketball. If you do the quick math, that's $1M per month or $12M per year. If you add this on top of people willing to pay to see UCONN football on a pay streaming channel, this monthly subscription thing can add up quickly if marketed correctly.

Will UCONN stay good after Geno left? Why not? There are plenty of current coaches from Geno's coaching tree that would love to come back to UCONN to continue the tradition. UCONN is a blue blood brand in women's basketball, and that's worth a lot.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

That's where you are wrong. If women's basketball can draw eyeballs with some willing to pay for it, it is worth a ton. I am pretty sure there are at least over 200K people across the USA that are willing to pay $5 per month for an UCONN channel just to watch some UCONN women basketball. If you do the quick math, that's $1M per month or $12M per year. If you add this on top of people willing to pay to see UCONN football on a pay streaming channel, this monthly subscription thing can add up quickly if marketed correctly.

Will UCONN stay good after Geno left? Why not? There are plenty of current coaches from Geno's coaching tree that would love to come back to UCONN to continue the tradition. UCONN is a blue blood brand in women's basketball, and that's worth a lot.

I am saying something a little different. I am saying that if two freshman and sophomore women's basketball players can rake in the cash at UConn, then either of the big 2 revenue sports can compete too.

A few posters on this board are stuck in the 80's though. Can't get their arms around it.

 

[hoopsfan22]

I am saying something a little different. I am saying that if two freshman and sophomore women's basketball players can rake in the cash at UConn, then either of the big 2 revenue sports can compete too.

A few posters on this board are stuck in the 80's though. Can't get their arms around it.

Every player at every school in America has the potential to earn some side cash from NIL. Not sure why you see this as unique to UConn or even an advantage for UConn. It doesn't level the playing field. In fact it tilts it even more to the big money conferences and schools with much deeper pockets and more robust networks from which to pay players.

 

[Stinger92860]

This. Uconn really needs to focus on getting top athletes like Paige and Azzi top NIL dollars to show the world true marketing potential of the Uconn brand.

On the football side, UConn really needs to improve its football brand to sign a much better football media deal than what we got now. Uconn needs to get a football deal close to $10M+ per year to show value of the brand. Uconn should also be focusing on helping football players get more NIL deals since potential huge NIL deals will be a huge recruiting tool in the coming years.

How long is our current football media contract with SNY and CBS Sports? I really hope it's year to year so we can get out anytime. I honestly think Uconn should be focusing on getting back its T3 rights from the Big East prior to the next Big East media deal. Once we have our T3 rights back along with FB rights, we should be talking to one of the tech companies for a subscription channel. The streaming channel can be free for some content and monthly subscription for premium content. At $5 per sub per month, Uconn will need to get 167K subs to get to $10M per year revenue.

I would pay more than $5 per month, especially if it included hockey.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Every player at every school in America has the potential to earn some side cash from NIL. Not sure why you see this as unique to UConn or even an advantage for UConn. It doesn't level the playing field. In fact it tilts it even more to the big money conferences and schools with much deeper pockets and more robust networks from which to pay players.

IT does not help the big schools, because players have to play to get paid. Fewer players will be happy to ride out their careers on the bench if they can start somewhere else.

Honestly though, I get that you think the world has ended and UConn is screwed. Do you need to post that ever 10 minutes?

 

[WestCoastHusky]

I would pay more than $5 per month, especially if it included hockey.

Let's look at a typical media deal from a streaming company point of view:

• Let's say Amazon offers Penn St $100M for exclusive access to its media rights. This means about $8.3M per month. To break even, Amazon will need 1.67M subs paying $5 per month across the country.
• Question is can Amazon get 1.67M+ PSU fans to subscribe to this PSU only app or channel? If the answer is yes, then $100M is an easy business decision to get all of PSU's rights. All subs above 1.67M will be profit for Amazon less production cost.

I would say it would not be too hard to get 1.67M PSU subs willing to pay $5. They can double the price for $10 per sub, and the math would be about 833K subs to break even. They can go $15 per sub, it would be down to 555K subs.

For UCONN to get $50M per year, we just need to following number of subs for the media company to break even with anything above it less production cost as profit:

• at $5 per sub, we need 834K subs
• at $10 per sub, we need 417K subs
• at $15 per sub, we need 278K subs
• at $20 per sub, we need 208K subs

Do we think there are more than 208K+ subs across the entire USA who are UCONN fans willing to pay $20 per sub for a dedicated UCONN channel? I would bet there are more than 417K people willing to pay $10 per sub for an UCONN channel that streaming all UCONN football plus T3 rights that we don't have to give up to the Big East.

This is the future guys and gals. It might take a little time to get there, but I see college football getting there at some point.

 

[DCUconnfan]

Let's look at a typical media deal from a streaming company point of view:

• Let's say Amazon offers Penn St $100M for exclusive access to its media rights. This means about $8.3M per month. To break even, Amazon will need 1.67M subs paying $5 per month across the country.
• Question is can Amazon get 1.67M+ PSU fans to subscribe to this PSU only app or channel? If the answer is yes, then $100M is an easy business decision to get all of PSU's rights. All subs above 1.67M will be profit for Amazon less production cost.

I would say it would not be too hard to get 1.67M PSU subs willing to pay $5. They can double the price for $10 per sub, and the math would be about 833K subs to break even. They can go $15 per sub, it would be down to 555K subs.

For UCONN to get $50M per year, we just need to following number of subs for the media company to break even with anything above it less production cost as profit:

• at $5 per sub, we need 834K subs
• at $10 per sub, we need 417K subs
• at $15 per sub, we need 278K subs
• at $20 per sub, we need 208K subs

Do we think there are more than 208K+ subs across the entire USA who are UCONN fans willing to pay $20 per sub for a dedicated UCONN channel? I would bet there are more than 417K people willing to pay $10 per sub for an UCONN channel that streaming all UCONN football plus T3 rights that we don't have to give up to the Big East.

This is the future guys and gals. It might take a little time to get there, but I see college football getting there at some point.

I have way too many subscriptions as is, but would absolutely fit into the $20 category. I would venture anyone that has ever looked at this board would fall into that category.

I'm always mystified by our worth media-wise and suppose it's always blue-colored lenses. You lay it out so simply it makes it seem like it's not ridiculously complex (which it is). Let's hope this future comes to be, or something simpler, just to keep us on the map.

 

[WVU-FAN]

The NIL case may have been a driver to the effort to potentially wipe out 1/3 of the P5 plus everyone else. NIL money would make it much harder for programs to stockpile talent, because players have to play to get paid. A 5* will be a lot less willing to be a backup on Alabama instead of going to Mississippi or even UCF and starting immediately. And getting paid.

So if you are one of the college football superpowers, how do you maintain your control over the top recruits? Wipe out your competition by aligning with the other top programs so you will have all the power in recruiting.

NIL is such a game changer to recruiting that I can see why the SEC and Texas/Oklahoma have to move now. If they wait 5 years, the talent could be dispersed so broadly that 15-20 schools will no longer dominate recruiting like they do now. And that could cost them in revenue as other schools emerge or simply the teams at the top turn over more rapidly.

I find it Ironic that a Supreme Court case won by a former WVU player might have triggered the death of WVU football.....ironic in a sick and twisted sense

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Let's look at a typical media deal from a streaming company point of view:

• Let's say Amazon offers Penn St $100M for exclusive access to its media rights. This means about $8.3M per month. To break even, Amazon will need 1.67M subs paying $5 per month across the country.
• Question is can Amazon get 1.67M+ PSU fans to subscribe to this PSU only app or channel? If the answer is yes, then $100M is an easy business decision to get all of PSU's rights. All subs above 1.67M will be profit for Amazon less production cost.

I would say it would not be too hard to get 1.67M PSU subs willing to pay $5. They can double the price for $10 per sub, and the math would be about 833K subs to break even. They can go $15 per sub, it would be down to 555K subs.

For UCONN to get $50M per year, we just need to following number of subs for the media company to break even with anything above it less production cost as profit:

• at $5 per sub, we need 834K subs
• at $10 per sub, we need 417K subs
• at $15 per sub, we need 278K subs
• at $20 per sub, we need 208K subs

Do we think there are more than 208K+ subs across the entire USA who are UCONN fans willing to pay $20 per sub for a dedicated UCONN channel? I would bet there are more than 417K people willing to pay $10 per sub for an UCONN channel that streaming all UCONN football plus T3 rights that we don't have to give up to the Big East.

This is the future guys and gals. It might take a little time to get there, but I see college football getting there at some point.

I think this is the right direction, but I don’t think that is the right math. The streaming services are building libraries of content, so live sports would be one more piece of the library. Amazon doesn’t need a ton of new subscriptions to justify sports, they just need the existing subscriptions to watch it.