Wait Till Next Year

[RSTuthill]

All quiet on the last day of FY23 and seemingly no announcement coming. Looks like no movement until next calendar year at the earliest. I would think there is only a 20% probability of something happening this calendar year. Is that a reasonable assessment in your view?

 

[Bongo Fury]

Yeah maybe July. At the moment they are celebrating the arrival of 4 new members. Neither UConn nor Big 12 are really in a hurry. It is painful though.

 

[Husky92]

I don’t know. There’s some key tweets today confirming BIG12 is still targeting Colorado and UConn.

 

[HuskyinWRNY]

I don’t know. There’s some key tweets today confirming BIG12 is still targeting Colorado and UConn.

Seems like "deju vu all over again" is in our future

 

[FfldCntyFan]

The end of day likely signals that the start date (if the B-12dies expand) gets pushed out a year but beyond that it doesn't hurt us.

There was a very recent release that the B-12 formally finalized the deal with Fox/ESPN for the term 2025-2031 and will now work on finalizing the digital distribution for the same period. This is expected to be completed by mid July.

I don't think it's unreasonable to believe that the delay in finalizing the deal was due to clarity on the addition of members and I also believe it is reasonable to believe that they want all of this tied up before they expand.

The passing of June 2023 hurts SDSU but likely does not impact anyone else involved. Even if the PAC votes to increase departure fees effective 7/1/23 it won't be enforceable if a) there is an existing agreement covering that period (there has to be) and b) the departing school doesn't sign the ammendment to the existing agreement.

In all candor they can wait until fall to extend the offers if they want as long as the delay doesn't put any PAC schools looking to jump in a bind (they can't stall on signing a new media deal for very long nor can they avoid signing an ammendment without departing the conference).

I believe the next critical date is when the PAC announces their media deal.

 

[Bongo Fury]

July 1 2025 seems like expansion teams start date

 

[ZooCougar]

As if the Conferences have ever been constrained by the end of the government’s FY.

 

[gsmooth]

The end of day likely signals that the start date (if the B-12dies expand) gets pushed out a year but beyond that it doesn't hurt us.

There was a very recent release that the B-12 formally finalized the deal with Fox/ESPN for the term 2025-2031 and will now work on finalizing the digital distribution for the same period. This is expected to be completed by mid July.

I don't think it's unreasonable to believe that the delay in finalizing the deal was due to clarity on the addition of members and I also believe it is reasonable to believe that they want all of this tied up before they expand.

The passing of June 2023 hurts SDSU but likely does not impact anyone else involved. Even if the PAC votes to increase departure fees effective 7/1/23 it won't be enforceable if a) there is an existing agreement covering that period (there has to be) and b) the departing school doesn't sign the ammendment to the existing agreement.

In all candor they can wait until fall to extend the offers if they want as long as the delay doesn't put any PAC schools looking to jump in a bind (they can't stall on signing a new media deal for very long nor can they avoid signing an ammendment without departing the conference).

I believe the next critical date is when the PAC announces their media deal.

Mailbag: Deadline (unofficial) for a Pac-12 media deal, Power Five valuations, the “unity” statement, panic scenario and more

The conference would suffer a massive PR hit if the existential crisis remains unresolved for the mid-summer football media extravaganza.

www.mercurynews.com

From this article, FWIW, it looks like July 21, 2023 is the unofficial date the conference realignment will start to take place. It states that the Pac 12 wants a new media deal completed well before then because it would diminish the impact of their media day which is meant to showcase the players, coaches, and teams in the Pac 12. Here is a snippet from the article:

If a media rights deal isn’t completed by football media day, will commissioner George Kliavkoff still speak there? Or will it be like the men’s basketball tournament, when he avoided speaking to reporters? — draywilson29

Our absolute, drop-dead, must-be-completed-and-announced deadline for the Pac-12’s media rights contract is Friday, July 21. Five short weeks from today.

That’s when the Pac-12 will stage its preseason football media extravaganza in Las Vegas, an event designed to showcase the teams, coaches and players ahead of the conference’s most anticipated season in eons.

The marketing potential is enormous. But if Kliavkoff doesn’t have a media deal signed and announced by that point, the existential crisis will suck oxygen from a first-rate football product.

In our opinion, it would be a PR nightmare.

Kliavkoff avoided public comments during the men’s basketball tournament in March for that very reason. He didn’t have a media deal to announce and wanted no part of standing in front of the assembled reporters and issuing denials, deflections and non-answers.

But there’s one crucial difference between the two events: The commissioner’s news conference is traditionally a secondary piece of the basketball tournament, typically occurring on the second or third day; with the Pac-12 football media festivities in July, the commissioner offers the opening remarks.

He welcomes the reporters, provides a state-of-the-conference update, then participates in a question-and-answer session. It’s not a basketball tournament. It’s a media event.

If Kliavkoff declines the traditional role, his absence — and what it says about the state of the negotiations and the future of the conference — would be the major story.

That said, Kliavkoff can do whatever he wants so long as the presidents are on board with the strategy.

He isn’t contractually bound to offer opening remarks and answer questions. The conference could simply introduce Colorado coach Deion Sanders, hand him the microphone for an hour and get on with the show.

After all, Kliavkoff’s public presence at football media day shouldn’t have a material impact on the course of the negotiations. The network partners don’t care. If PR hits played a relevant role, the conference would have dissolved months ago.

Which is why July 21 is merely an unofficial deadline for the conclusion of this saga.

---

​

 

[RSTuthill]

As if the Conferences have ever been constrained by the end of the government’s FY.

Moot point for now. 9/30 is the end of the gov FY.

 

[giddyup]

Moot point for now. 9/30 is the end of the gov FY.

That’s the federal FY. State FYs are usually July 1

 

[WestCoastHusky]

B12 commissioner did went on record to say he wants the B12 to be at 14 after both Texas and OU leave.

 

[WestCoastHusky]

Here is the video about B12 wanting to be at 14.

 

[ZooCougar]

Moot point for now. 9/30 is the end of the gov FY.

That’s the Fedreral government boss.

 

[ZooCougar]

B12 commissioner did went on record to say he wants the B12 to be at 14 after both Texas and OU leave.

Oof. There it is.

 

[uconnbaseball]

Oof. There it is.

The question is this:

Colorado / UConn, Colorado / Zona, or UConn / ??? (Memphis, SDSU?)

Colorado and Zona are the most likely pairing, but any other duo likely leads to a UConn invite. Gonna be a close one.

 

[GoKU]

The question is this:

Colorado / UConn, Colorado / Zona, or UConn / ??? (Memphis, SDSU?)

Colorado and Zona are the most likely pairing, but any other duo likely leads to a UConn invite. Gonna be a close one.

If the Big 12 goes to 14, it's Colorado/UConn. 16 teams Arizona/Arizona State. Yormark wants UConn, so let's see what happens. I'm not sure what the hold up is with Colorado.

 

[RSTuthill]

That’s the Fedreral government boss.

Well we had already blown thru the CoB for the others.

 

[Samoo]

As if the Conferences have ever been constrained by the end of the government’s FY.

Since that is September 30, I guess they have 3 more months.

 

[Hoophound]

Colorado needs to hear the PAC deal before doing anything. By staying in the PAC for now, the PAC can negotiate its best deal, then Colorado can decide what to do. This is the main indicator that the PAC deal isn’t done.

Also, we don’t know who is included in the PAC scenarios. Is SMU in there? That may help keep Colorado, as they want to have more recruiting pull in Texas from most reports.

 

[Skiblets]

Colorado needs to hear the PAC deal before doing anything. By staying in the PAC for now, the PAC can negotiate its best deal, then Colorado can decide what to do. This is the main indicator that the PAC deal isn’t done.

Also, we don’t know who is included in the PAC scenarios. Is SMU in there? That may help keep Colorado, as they want to have more recruiting pull in Texas from most reports.

Agreed. Next big day to watch is July 21 Not sure if that allows us to move for fall of 2024 or not if we get the invite but that does seem to be D day for the PAC

 

[Alum86]

I cannot see the B12 taking Colorado and UConn over Colorado and Arizona. We’ll end up left at the altar again. Seems appropriate for a CYO league member.

 

[ZooCougar]

Since that is September 30, I guess they have 3 more months.

Or maybe such a thing doesn’t hinge on it.

 

[Eavesdrop]

I cannot see the B12 taking Colorado and UConn over Colorado and Arizona. We’ll end up left at the altar again. Seems appropriate for a CYO league member.

The University of Arizona sits in a more populated and faster growing state, has a larger enrollment and more living alumni. They're also in the AAU, which might appeal to some Big 12 university presidents. And adding a sitting Power Five school might be appealing to administrators concerned with "optics."

My personal view is that Big 12 making a long term decision based on the latter two would be stupid. I'd also argue that the former advantages are becoming less important while the relative importance of national brands is increasing.

On that front, Arizona football (like UConn football) isn't national brand. And the Wildcat basketball brand is good, but not nearly as strong as UConn. Bob Thompson (former FOX Sports president) rated Colorado and Arizona as two of the (four) least valuable schools in the PAC 12 for a reason.

UConn is a better long term addition than Arizona in my opinion.

(I have lived in Connecticut a few years now and my eldest daughter is an incoming UConn freshman so I should acknowledge that my views are perhaps less unbiased now than in the past.)

 

[RSTuthill]

Regarding governmental fiscal years, the hypothetical connection between them and potential realignments involving state universities is tenuous at best. Only if the issue is the matter of a de-minimus down payment of perhaps $1-2 million to secure an MOU, similar to earnest money payment to accompany a house purchase offer, would that ever come into play. And to think that a school doesn't have that kind of money lying around for contingencies is ridiculous. Thus there would be no need to wait for the onset of the next budget. And the Fed FY having any influence is highly unlikely.

The only possible explanation is that in accrual accounting (and I am not an accountant) obligations are booked when they are incurred, not when they are paid. So there is that. But doubtful that is driving anything. Far more likely is that things are held up by the Pac12 media deal not being finished. Once that happens, the B12 will have a much better idea of what schools to go after. And I would bet that the B12 presidents are insisting that they have a clear view of the landscape before taking any major action.

Btw, I love that total NCAA championship count comparison. Very very powerful.

 

[RSTuthill]

Another possible explanation in the case of UConn, is that an announcement in FY24 (just started) perhaps pushes their join date out a year to FY26. Don't think that reduces their exit fee, but it may be easier for the B12 to accommodate for some reason.