Visions of Bubble Dancing In My Head

[jibsey]

Plus the start of an ulcer.

 

[Jerry1714]

Plus the start of an ulcer.

just comically dumb

 

[3rdbass]

As long as we best Rutgers at home were in. Though with the way we have been playing the last game and first half today that isn't a given. Lol!

 

[pepband99]

just comically dumb

It's really not, even now. Let's just say we lost last night, and put up 3 more L's to finish the season.

We would be ~52 in the RPI, with s SOS about 65. That's certainly bubbleicious.

The W last night probably puts our absolute basement in the low 40's, which nearly locks it.

Anything else gives us 35 or above, which is lock city.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Connecticut.html

That site really is awesome.

 

[Kitaman]

That Florida win is becoming the most important win this season. It actually set our destiny, especially if we are to be compared to other teams.

 

[Waquoit]

We need 2 more wins before I start counting my chickens.

 

[Marat]

That Florida win is becoming the most important win this season. It actually set our destiny, especially if we are to be compared to other teams.

Yeah only one other team can claim a win over Florida at this point, and Florida was missing Wilbekin in that game in Wisconsin.

 

[jibsey]

With a loss last night we could have needed to beat either Cincy or Ville but now we are OK i think. But if a loss was combined with bad losses to those two who knows. The more important thing is that we are playing like a worse than a bubble team. SF ran better offensive sets and at the end had guys pulling up for 17 footers cool as ice and us?

 

[Jerry1714]

It's really not, even now. Let's just say we lost last night, and put up 3 more L's to finish the season.

We would be ~52 in the RPI, with s SOS about 65. That's certainly bubbleicious.

The W last night probably puts our absolute basement in the low 40's, which nearly locks it.

Anything else gives us 35 or above, which is lock city.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Connecticut.html

That site really is awesome.

It is comically stupid to think we are going to lose out. Hence any though of being on the bubble is stupid.

I also think if we lost out we would still be in. Look at the teams on the bubble. St. Johns is in right now with 11 loses and being 8-8 in conference. We could lose out and still have less loses then them.

We are no where near the bubble even with a loss last night, any thought of it is just lunacy. We are a "lock".

 

[UConNation]

It is comically stupid to think we are going to lose out. Hence any though of being on the bubble is stupid.

I also think if we lost out we would still be in. Look at the teams on the bubble. St. Johns is in right now with 11 loses and being 8-8 in conference. We could lose out and still have less loses then them.

We are no where near the bubble even with a loss last night, any thought of it is just lunacy. We are a "lock".

I have to agree. The only thing that losing out would do is lower our seed into the double digit range.

 

[champs99and04]

Pittsburgh is currently considered a lock for the tournament and their best win this season was over Stanford. UConn isn't anywhere close to the bubble - they could lose to Rutgers and they'd still be comfortably in.

 

[msgordon]

It's really not, even now. Let's just say we lost last night, and put up 3 more L's to finish the season.

We would be ~52 in the RPI, with s SOS about 65. That's certainly bubbleicious.

The W last night probably puts our absolute basement in the low 40's, which nearly locks it.

Anything else gives us 35 or above, which is lock city.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Connecticut.html

That site really is awesome.

the same site you linked also put our odds of finishing 21-10 at 1 in 667...so yes, it was indeed comically dumb

 

[Peacefrog]

We're probably in already and beating Rutgers at home, or winning any of our last three games, makes us a mortal lock. One reason for this is the incredibly soft bubble, I don't recall another year like this. Looking at various "last four in" and "first four out" lists, there is an assemblage of teams that wouldn't be getting a sniff most years. Recently teams from a weak Big East with RPI's of 60+ and double digit losses were amongst those predicted to get in. Lunardi still has Providence in for God's sake. They are 18-10 in a crummy league and have probably one win, ONE WIN, against ranked teams/teams that will make the tournament (Creighton). It's a horrible résumé that wouldn't have them in the conversation most years. If this is even remotely possible I have little concern about our invitation.

Our play can turn back around as quickly as it turned sour. We were playing probably our best ball of the season until we crapped the bed against SMU. After two ordinary efforts in a row the "good" Huskies could show up this weekend. Here's to hoping so.

 

[Huskybass]

Plus the start of an ulcer.

At 22 and 6 we are already in. Who are these people who make posts like this?

 

[HooperScooper]

Anyone who thinks UConn is anywhere close to the bubble just hasn't looked at the rest of the field and the teams currently considered on the bubble. Very uninformed post.

 

[Chin Diesel]

We need 2 more wins before I start counting my chickens.

What's the threshold before you start choking your chicken?

 

[pepband99]

the same site you linked also put our odds of finishing 21-10 at 1 in 667...so yes, it was indeed comically dumb

OK smart guy - riddle me this, in that case - what chance would you give a random team that lost to USF of beating Cincy, Rutgers, or @Ville.

You might give them a puncher's chance against Rutgers, and pretty much no chance on the others, right? That's the point.

The same site that we both referenced also gave USF about a 1 in 10 shot at beating us last night - did you ever feel that comfortable?

 

[Waquoit]

What's the threshold before you start choking your chicken?

Somewhat less than that

 

[Jerry1714]

OK smart guy - riddle me this, in that case - what chance would you give a random team that lost to USF of beating Cincy, Rutgers, or @Ville.

You might give them a puncher's chance against Rutgers, and pretty much no chance on the others, right? That's the point.

The same site that we both referenced also gave USF about a 1 in 10 shot at beating us last night - did you ever feel that comfortable?

How about this one, SMU lost at USF, they also beat Rutgers at home, Cincy at home, and lost to at the Ville.

How does that work for you? So what is your point now?

 

[pepband99]

How about this one, SMU lost at USF, they also beat Rutgers at home, Cincy at home, and lost to at the Ville.

How does that work for you? So what is your point now?

Nice try at obfuscating.

My point is - a loss at USF would have kept some ugly ugly doors open, and wouldn't have put us in a good mindset going into our last 3 games. One of them, improbable as it sounds, was being on the bubble.

Those who think we are a stone cold lock, even now, don't understand math. We could potentially play our way off, even if it's a very very small probability.

Win Saturday, and this all becomes moot, most likely, but not before then.

 

[Jerry1714]

Nice try at obfuscating.

My point is - a loss at USF would have kept some ugly ugly doors open, and wouldn't have put us in a good mindset going into our last 3 games. One of them, improbable as it sounds, was being on the bubble.

Those who think we are a stone cold lock, even now, don't understand math. We could potentially play our way off, even if it's a very very small probability.

Win Saturday, and this all becomes moot, most likely, but not before then.

You asked for an answer to your riddle, I provided it, sorry you did not like because it blew up your entire argument.

We are lock now, not even debatable.

 

[pepband99]

You asked for an answer to your riddle, I provided it, sorry you did not like because it blew up your entire argument.

We are lock now, not even debatable.

You answered nothing, but go on...

Anyway, if you think a team that could potentially finish with a record of 22-10 with a mid-50s RPI is a "not even debatable" "lock," there's no use arguing. You're wrong.

Do I think they'll be better than that? Yes. Do I think this will all be moot in a week? Yes. But, it's not set in stone yet.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

At 22 and 6 we are already in. Who are these people who make posts like this?

I must have not gotten the memo that we were still in the Big East. 22-6 from a mid-major is NOT a lock.

UConn has a 29 RPI ranking now. A loss last night, and we would be 35 or worse. UConn has at least 3 games left against Top 50 opponents, and UConn would be well served to win at least 1 of those games.

 

[Jerry1714]

You answered nothing, but go on...

Anyway, if you think a team that could potentially finish with a record of 22-10 with a mid-50s RPI is a "not even debatable" "lock," there's no use arguing. You're wrong.

Do I think they'll be better than that? Yes. Do I think this will all be moot in a week? Yes. But, it's not set in stone yet.

Ok, sure, we are not a lock, just like a team losing at USF has no chance of beating Cincy or Rutgers, because that was so accurate.

Also that scenario of using being the mid 50s is based on no other upsets in the RPI simulator, even though for us you put in 3 or 4 upsets, so that mid-50s number is doubtfully even accurate.

 

[Jerry1714]

I must have not gotten the memo that we were still in the Big East. 22-6 from a mid-major is NOT a lock.

UConn has a 29 RPI ranking now. A loss last night, and we would be 35 or worse. UConn has at least 3 games left against Top 50 opponents, and UConn would be well served to win at least 1 of those games.

How many mid-majors have 5 teams in the top 26?