Villanova Ranked 4th in FCS Preseason Poll

[HomeKing93]

We might have a new OC, but there is very little in his background that shows he has any more experience running a good offense than his predecessor had. That certainly concerns me in our first game of the season against a team like 'Nova.

 

[Huskyforlife]

Towson was in 2013, but that does not take away from your point. Pasqualoni was on the hot seat going into the season, and losing to an FCS team in the opener turned up that heat to 11. That, coupled with the debacle at Buffalo, sealed PP's fate.

However, I also disagree with your point. That was no outlier. Towson was clearly better than us. We were one of the worst FBS teams that year, they were the #2 FCS team. Here is video evidence of their superiority vs. the 2013 Huskies. Hope this does not ruin everyone's appetite:



We were one of the worst FBS teams last year. Nova was one of the best. Therefore, if graduation attrition does not hit Nova too hard, it is quite possible that they are better than UConn right now. I hope not, but I would not be surprised.

Oh trust me, I was at the game. Just brutal, but it can't get much worse... I hope...

 

[J187Money]

That's not exactly what I said. I think 2014 'Nova beats 2014 UConn. If I were to bet on the game on September 3rd, 2015, I'd take the Huskies at home with the points. I don't think they need them. I think UConn wins a too-close-for-comfort game outright. But in the betting world, it's nice to have a cushion.

I think if there was an actual preseason I would probably agree. But we have a TEAM that has had success playing against what SHOULD be superior athletes that have not played together in a real game setting. Not to mention we don't know which QB is going to play and if he is going to be any good.

If this was game three I would expect a win. Just not in the opener.

 

[whaler11]

That's not exactly what I said. I think 2014 'Nova beats 2014 UConn.

If I were to bet on the game on September 3rd, 2015, I'd take the Huskies at home with the points. I don't think they need them. I think UConn wins a too-close-for-comfort game outright. But in the betting world, it's nice to have a cushion.

I was commenting on you saying that there is a player or two on the first string that is better.

Since they were so much better - wouldn't it half to be a lot more than that?

 

[Husky25]

I was commenting on you saying that there is a player or two on the first string that is better.

Since they were so much better - wouldn't it half to be a lot more than that?

I am referring to the 2015 team. I already conceded that 2014 was a wasted year for a number of reasons, but 2015 is a new year and a different team. UConn will be much closer to the 85 scholarship FBS limit plus preferred walk-ons. Their depth and presupposed improvement should be the difference in 2015.

 

[Jimmy Serrano]

I am referring to the 2015 team. I already conceded that 2014 was a wasted year for a number of reasons, but 2015 is a new year and a different team. UConn will be much closer to the 85 scholarship FBS limit plus preferred walk-ons. Their depth and presupposed improvement should be the difference in 2015.

We don't know who our QB is going to be (although likely Shirrefs) nor do we know if he can play. We know how good Nova's QB is and that they will have the advantage at the most important position on the field. With Crozier out, who is playing center? There are so many question marks on this team right now that I can't bring myself to expect or even predict a win against Nova right now. Can we win? Of course we can. But it will take a solid effort.

 

[Excalibur]

The people saying that we should/likely will destroy Nova are doing so based only on the second letter of their subdivision classification. Not exactly high-level analysis.

They are better than a good portion of the MAC, Sun Belt, and C-USA, and would likely win a couple of games in the AAC.

 

[Husky25]

We don't know who our QB is going to be (although likely Shirrefs) nor do we know if he can play. We know how good Nova's QB is and that they will have the advantage at the most important position on the field. With Crozier out, who is playing center? There are so many question marks on this team right now that I can't bring myself to expect or even predict a win against Nova right now. Can we win? Of course we can. But it will take a solid effort.

It's a good thing Shirreffs isn't playing Robertson. It's not a good thing that he is lining up against Cherry, but if UConn's line improved even a little bit, they can neutralized him.

Crozier being out is exactly my point. UConn should have the depth and ability to replace Crozier a lot better than 'Nova has the ability to replace their 2 drafted linemen. I am not discounting Villanova in the least, but given the growing pains of what was the 2014 season, I foresee marked improvement on UConn's sideline.

 

[Confident Carl]

Sometimes reality has to creep in Carl. I admire your ability to find a gold watch in a steaming pile of poo, but the reality of the situation is that Nova was way better than us last year. They would've given us a drubbing worse than Towson did. They return a lot. I suspect we will be underdogs and if I was a betting man I don't see us winning this game. The Boneyard would be unreadable if it was dominated by the pollyanna rainbows and unicorns crowd.

I agree, don't forget I am the one who started this thread. In betting terms UCONN should be the dog. The Debbie downer bit is a hoot! Just gave me an excuse to post it.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

Yeah that might have been one but on the other hand that was a unique situation. That season UConn was completely over matched with a team of 1aa players trying to play a higher level schedule. Add that they lost their quarterback and top running back...and the game had been rescheduled from 9/11 weekend. I don't know that it is at all comparable.

This is a unique situation as well. Our athletic department is run by someone that you want to ride out of town on a rail so you won'r consider giving the benefit of any doubts to anyone he hired (first Ollie, now Diaco).

 

[Redding Husky]

I'd guess #4 FCS > #110 in FBS.

 

[J187Money]

I'd guess #4 FCS > #110 in FBS.

You would be wrong...

- Freescooter

 

[freescooter]

The people saying that we should/likely will destroy Nova are doing so based only on the second letter of their subdivision classification. Not exactly high-level analysis.

They are better than a good portion of the MAC, Sun Belt, and C-USA, and would likely win a couple of games in the AAC.

I doubt your analysis of Villanova is correct. Maybe the win a game in the ACC. Maybe they beat Eastern Michigan and Miami in the MAC. But none of those are gimmes. They play those teams in weeks 7-9 I doubt they win. Since 2000 fbs teams have won over 80% of the games agains Fcs opponents every year but 2. There have been some years they've won them all. So figuring we should win is hardly rocket science. It's mostly based on the fact that the 1a team, well, wins more than 80 times out of 100. Even bad fbs teams win mostly.

 

[freescooter]

Fcf I was excited about Diaco. Then I watched him make Pasqualoni look like a friggin genius. If you can seriously tell me he looked like he wasn't in way over his head last year with his pre season games and all the other nonsense. I'm willing to hear your defense. But I doubt you can say it with a straight face.

 

[Jimmy Serrano]

I doubt your analysis of Villanova is correct. Maybe the win a game in the ACC. Maybe they beat Eastern Michigan and Miami in the MAC. But none of those are gimmes. They play those teams in weeks 7-9 I doubt they win. Since 2000 fbs teams have won over 80% of the games agains Fcs opponents every year but 2. There have been some years they've won them all. So figuring we should win is hardly rocket science. It's mostly based on the fact that the 1a team, well, wins more than 80 times out of 100. Even bad fbs teams win mostly.

That is ridiculous logic. You're including games like Bama vs. Western Carolina in your 80% statistic.

I don't know what the results are but the correct analysis would be to take the FBS teams ranked over 100 vs. top 10 FCS teams.

Alabama does not equal UConn and North Dakota St does not equal Texas Southern.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

Fcf I was excited about Diaco. Then I watched him make Pasqualoni look like a friggin genius. If you can seriously tell me he looked like he wasn't in way over his head last year with his pre season games and all the other nonsense. I'm willing to hear your defense. But I doubt you can say it with a straight face.

Scoot, I don't give a what he uses in an attempt at coachspeak when discussing a loss with the press. I do know that Jerry Kill lost to FCS teams from the Dakotas in consecutive years yet got the Gophers ranked in the top 25 at one point last season.

As Serrano already pointed out, you are being a bit too general with one of your arguments and as you are a bit too selective with others, it reeks of an agenda.

 

[Gangtackle11]

AAC teams vs. FCS teams (All-time since 1978 when college football split to d1A & d1AA)

UCF 20-0
Cincinnati 25-5
UCONN 12-4
East Carolina 25-1
Houston 14-0
Memphis 18-3-4
Navy 40-15
South Florida 24-1
SMU 15-1
Temple 15-11
Tulane 13-0
Tulsa 35-2

 

[Confident Carl]

AAC teams vs. FCS teams (All-time since 1978 when college football split to d1A & d1AA)

UCF 20-0
Cincinnati 25-5
UCONN 12-4
East Carolina 25-1
Houston 14-0
Memphis 18-3-4
Navy 40-15
South Florida 24-1
SMU 15-1
Temple 15-11
Tulane 13-0
Tulsa 35-2

Good research!

 

[Confident Carl]

Fcf I was excited about Diaco. Then I watched him make Pasqualoni look like a friggin genius. If you can seriously tell me he looked like he wasn't in way over his head last year with his pre season games and all the other nonsense. I'm willing to hear your defense. But I doubt you can say it with a straight face.

With a straight face, I'll just refer to my Dec. 14th post again:

http://the-boneyard.com/threads/what-i-believe-about-bob-diaco.69530/

 

[Excalibur]

AAC teams vs. FCS teams (All-time since 1978 when college football split to d1A & d1AA)

UCF 20-0
Cincinnati 25-5
UCONN 12-4
East Carolina 25-1
Houston 14-0
Memphis 18-3-4
Navy 40-15
South Florida 24-1
SMU 15-1
Temple 15-11
Tulane 13-0
Tulsa 35-2

OK, what about their records vs. top 5 1-AA/FCS teams?

 

[J187Money]

Here is my thing (and I know football is different but bear with me). I have done a lot of re-engineering work as part of my career. On 3 occasions, my gut has told me that I should fire everyone and start completely over. In business, you can't do that (most of the time). So you have to dance with who you have, get the best out of them, save some, jettison others, and bring in game-changers to alter the culture. I have never been able to go to any CEO/Chairman and say "we might not do a good job for a while" or "the numbers might be wrong for 2 quarters" or "leave me alone to fix the org and don't worry about results"...in football terms, I'm expected to go at least 6-6 and make a bowl game with the lousiest players on the planet. So what is frustrating to me isn't that we lost games and ended up 2-10, but rather that it didn't feel like it needed to be that way, and I'm not SURE we learned anything. BTW if he DOES get us to 6-6 and a bowl this year, he was right and gets a pass. And if he goes 3-9 this year and 8-4 next year, he still gets a pass (from the Administration at least).

But I only have a limited number of days on this earth, and I want my teams to fight like hell to win every game they play. The way they fought against UCF, I stayed there, cold, wet, freezing, numb, because you could feel that they wanted it. If there were 12 of THOSE efforts? I'd have been ok with 2-10 (well, not ok, but sort of ok). But I can't watch a coach that is wedded to process to the point of "well, now that it is the 2nd half, and we just so happen to be winning, so maybe we should try to actually win." I do believe he is smart enough to not coach that way this season. To be honest? The only way he and this team lose me for the season is if THAT doesn't change. Whether or not we lose to Villanova to ME is irrelevant.

 

[Carl Spackler]

Here is my thing (and I know football is different but bear with me). I have done a lot of re-engineering work as part of my career. On 3 occasions, my gut has told me that I should fire everyone and start completely over. In business, you can't do that (most of the time). So you have to dance with who you have, get the best out of them, save some, jettison others, and bring in game-changers to alter the culture. I have never been able to go to any CEO/Chairman and say "we might not do a good job for a while" or "the numbers might be wrong for 2 quarters" or "leave me alone to fix the org and don't worry about results"...in football terms, I'm expected to go at least 6-6 and make a bowl game with the lousiest players on the planet. So what is frustrating to me isn't that we lost games and ended up 2-10, but rather that it didn't feel like it needed to be that way, and I'm not SURE we learned anything. BTW if he DOES get us to 6-6 and a bowl this year, he was right and gets a pass. And if he goes 3-9 this year and 8-4 next year, he still gets a pass (from the Administration at least).

But I only have a limited number of days on this earth, and I want my teams to fight like hell to win every game they play. The way they fought against UCF, I stayed there, cold, wet, freezing, numb, because you could feel that they wanted it. If there were 12 of THOSE efforts? I'd have been ok with 2-10 (well, not ok, but sort of ok). But I can't watch a coach that is wedded to process to the point of "well, now that it is the 2nd half, and we just so happen to be winning, so maybe we should try to actually win." I do believe he is smart enough to not coach that way this season. To be honest? The only way he and this team lose me for the season is if THAT doesn't change. Whether or not we lose to Villanova to ME is irrelevant.

Only my feet were cold for that game, because I didn't wear the right footgear. It was a wonderful ride home, and unpacking and cleaning up after wasn't a chore and not bothersome. One of the very few times in the past several years that I've come home from a game and not just wanted to leave everything in the back of the truck and rust and get all ratty.

Winning at home, is a really important. It's what Edsall did - to build this program up to where it got. However, whatever, way - he built teams that won games at Rentschler field.

 

[freescooter]

AAC teams vs. FCS teams (All-time since 1978 when college football split to d1A & d1AA)

UCF 20-0
Cincinnati 25-5
UCONN 12-4
East Carolina 25-1
Houston 14-0
Memphis 18-3-4
Navy 40-15
South Florida 24-1
SMU 15-1
Temple 15-11
Tulane 13-0
Tulsa 35-2

Just a side note on this...3 of UConns losses came during their transition seasons in the early 2000s. The other one we know. But it goes to my point that fbs teams should win these games. By my count the overall record is 241-28-3, an .886 winning percentage. If you discount the 78-82 period when Temple still played essentially a schedule of Ivy and Patriot teams it is probably higher.

 

[Jimmy Serrano]

Just a side note on this...3 of UConns losses came during their transition seasons in the early 2000s. The other one we know. But it goes to my point that fbs teams should win these games. By my count the overall record is 241-28-3, an .886 winning percentage. If you discount the 78-82 period when Temple still played essentially a schedule of Ivy and Patriot teams it is probably higher.

What is the record of FBS teams ranked over 100 vs. FCS teams ranked in the top 10?

 

[J187Money]

http://www.footballgeography.com/history-of-fbs-i-a-vs-fcs-i-aa/

Lots of good data here on that.

FYI - North Dakota St. is 7-3 against FBS schools.

Villanova is 3-15 (they beat Temple in 2009)

Youngstown State is 20-27-1 (beat Pitt in 2012)

Delaware is 15-12