I have to disagree with you. Last years' result will have a very little correlation to this years' outcome. The results are independent just like spins at the roulette table.
Simply Not true.... Either the results are independent or not, "very little correlation" can't have it both ways... In Roulette like a coin flip future results have absolutely no correlation to previous results, not true in CBB, that fact that a team has 4 of 5 starters returning that won it all the previous year does impact their chances of winning again. CBB tournament is not a random process....