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Vegas Odds

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Walker11

Walker11

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Uconn at +2500 to win it all. I am going to need to throw down a little bet because these odds are unreal. Teams with worse odds are UNC, UK, Duke, Ville, Ohio ST, Cuse, UF, UCLA, Memphis, Pitt and Texas.

Vegas Odds
 
It isn't just about the chance to win. It's also about repeating which apparently is even harder (see Duke last year).
 
Vegas odds are also based on anticipated action. They try to even out the bets which most times is based on the size of the schools fan base.
 
gibhunter said:
It isn't just about the chance to win. It's also about repeating which apparently is even harder (see Duke last year).
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I have to disagree with you. Last years' result will have a very little correlation to this years' outcome. The results are independent just like spins at the roulette table.
 
I understand how odds making works and why they would have Duke as the third "best team," just saying that if you are a betting man, these odds are great.
 
We are getting really disrespected. Not sure if the media/everyone realizes how good we are.
 
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I hit last year when we were at 35-1. It was a good GREAT day.
 
cjd05002 said:
I have to disagree with you. Last years' result will have a very little correlation to this years' outcome. The results are independent just like spins at the roulette table.
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Mmmmm, I'd guess not, without actually looking long and hard at it. My guess is that a mathematician would describe the situation as a Markov Chain, rather than independent events.
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I'm in Vegas this week, I think I'm going to jump on this. Thanks for bringing it to my attention.
 
Does that mean they are 25-1? As in if you bet 100, you get 2500?
 
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ucla? really? is that just a they are close to LV so they get alot of bets?
 
Pitt has a better chance than us?!! Someone was calling Dixon a future Hall of Famer. What the heck are people thinking??
 
It ain't easy repeating, I don't care how good you are. Arizona makes that shot and well ....................... The game can come down to a matter of inches.

Not sure why so many people are talking repeating or surprised at rankings/odds. Can we discuss this in February?
 
I got $50 down at 30-1.

Nothing's a lock, but it's a great value. Would you rather have your money down on UConn +3000 (or even +2000), or UNC +450?
 
Two years ago (September 2009) I spent two weeks in Reno staying at the Silver Legacy casino. A good buddy of mine asked me to put down $100 on the Saints to win the Super Bowl after week 1 of the NFL season. I said sure. They were somewhere around 60-1 after week 1. For two weeks I literally had to walk past the sports book to enter/leave the casino.

Think I put the money down? Nope. Went to work, played golf, played slots, etc., but never put the money down.

I was actually rooting against the Saints in the Super Bowl just so I wouldn't feel like a .
 
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Wonkster said:
Mmmmm, I'd guess not, without actually looking long and hard at it. My guess is that a mathematician would describe the situation as a Markov Chain, rather than independent events.
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I agree, the odds of repeating need to factor in the previous attempts. However 2011 UConn was such a surprise vs 2011-12 (UConn should be among favorites) thatI think this is a pretty good setup for a shot at repeating. Two years of expectations can weigh on a team, but these guys will have a fresh look at it and as we see by the odds/reaction to winning (sentiment that they were lucky)/BE polls 2011-12 UConn can play the nobody believes in us or disrespected card for awhile.

I doubt this will last though and once everyone sees Drummond, Daniels & Boatright there will likely be an onslaught of these guys are far more 'talented' than the national championship squad.

Dook comparison isn't good. At first they were somewhat similar to UConn 2011-12 starting out the year as adding talent to a juggernaut (BUT they were a consensus favorite), but that changed dramatically once Irving got hurt and then quite obviously they screwed it up by playing Irving in the NCAAs after their team chemistry had been re-established without Irving. I'd bet anything that if Krychghbzy had it to do over he'd sit Irving.
 
The only odds that really matter are the odds @ the Vegas Casino Sports books. I was there a month ago and nothing has changed since. You can't find UConn better then 18/1 anywhere or + 1800. Some places it is 15/1 or +1500 and I did see as low as 12/1 0r +1200. The odds were +25/1 or 2500 before Drummond came aboard. Just an FYI on the #'s where it matters most.
 
BLUEDOGHOUSE said:
The only odds that really matter are the odds @ the Vegas Casino Sports books. I was there a month ago and nothing has changed since. You can't find UConn better then 18/1 anywhere or + 1800. Some places it is 15/1 or +1500 and I did see as low as 12/1 0r +1200. The odds were +25/1 or 2500 before Drummond came aboard. Just an FYI on the #'s where it matters most.
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If you can find UConn @ 20/1 that is the best you can find but it most likely is less across the board. As low as 12/1 at some places. Good luck!
 
That's incorrect. I just placed a bet yesterday at 20:1 at Sunset Station.
 
dogpause said:
That's incorrect. I just placed a bet yesterday at 20:1 at Sunset Station.
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Sunset Station? Nice...:) Did they limit your action? That is the norm even in Vegas. Not familiar with Sunset but assume it is off the Strip somewhere in Henderson? I should have qualified by saying on the strip or a Casino such as Rio ect...ect... Good Luck!
 
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I would like to put 15K on the over under that 50% of Dook's team is gay.
Another 15K on Pitt being scum.
Another 15K on Quse's zone getting crushed this year by us and Lville.
Another 15K on Uk's players hating each other.
Another 100K that some tool bag is going to blog how he hates UCONN and why we do not deserve to win a game.
Another 150K that other teams are going to have a hard time figuring out how to get the ball in the paint against us this year.
$1,000,000.00 that we are most certainly DOOMED!!!!!!!!!!!
 
cjd05002 said:
I have to disagree with you. Last years' result will have a very little correlation to this years' outcome. The results are independent just like spins at the roulette table.
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Simply Not true.... Either the results are independent or not, "very little correlation" can't have it both ways... In Roulette like a coin flip future results have absolutely no correlation to previous results, not true in CBB, that fact that a team has 4 of 5 starters returning that won it all the previous year does impact their chances of winning again. CBB tournament is not a random process....
 
Scot-e said:
I would like to put 15K on the over under that 50% of Dook's team is gay.
Another 15K on Pitt being scum.
Another 15K on Quse's zone getting crushed this year by us and Lville.
Another 15K on Uk's players hating each other.
Another 100K that some tool bag is going to blog how he hates UCONN and why we do not deserve to win a game.
Another 150K that other teams are going to have a hard time figuring out how to get the ball in the paint against us this year.
$1,000,000.00 that we are most certainly DOOMED!!!!!!!!!!!
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DOOMED!!!!!!!?

YES: -200000
NO: +160000
 
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