UMichigan vs. Villanova

[Robertelamin]

Not the win, the blowout win. I said it wouldn't be close.

That wasn't exactly going out on a limb either.

 

[Danzz]

Villanova's defense is underrated.

 

[champs99and04]

Right you can't separate single game results from process or grasp expected results. Villanova had a good 3pt D on the year. Even if they held Michigan to their season D average instead of Michigan's 3pt O average, Michigan would have 12 more points and be within 5 barring fouls.

I watched basically every tournament game both of those teams played from the round of 32 on. The difference between those two teams is shot-making, I think it's really that simple. Michigan has guys that can spot up and hit shots, Nova has guys who can hit shots off the dribble, with a hand in their face, in semi-transition, coming off a screen, etc. Obviously 3 of 23 or whatever Michigan shot was something of an anomaly, but I don't think it's as simple as saying "if they shoot closer to their average..." as if these things exist in a vacuum. Not all looks are created equal. Based on the looks Michigan got tonight, I'd expect them to hit maybe 25-30% of those shots. They were all under duress, taken by guys who, save for Robinson, aren't natural shooters, in an environment they're not used to playing in.

Then there's the fallacy of the predetermined outcome. If Michigan hits a couple more shots early on, the rest of the game probably doesn't play out the same way. Better teams tend to demonstrate their superiority when they're threatened. If Villanova wanted to win that game by 30 you get the sense that they could have, but human nature is human nature and you're not as dialed in up 20 as you are down 4. So if you want to say Michigan "deserved" to lose by less, that's fine, but couldn't we make that argument irrespective of their shooting numbers? We could say the spread was seven, the most likely outcome is to lose by seven, therefore they deserve to lose by seven. And it would get us to about the same place as your analysis. Problem is, by the time you defy a trend, there's already a new one, and there's no way of knowing how the regression of that data - for instance, Michigan shot 21 of 32 from two, well above average - might directly confront the presence of other data. All we know based on that game is that Nova was 17 points better than Michigan.

I think there is a way to allow for some degree of variance while acknowledging that the games are not played in a laboratory. I knew the numbers, I saw the spread, I know I'm not beating Vegas...yet I still expected this result. And while this is the sort of sentimental bliss that usually makes sports fans look stupid, you're also never going to be able to handicap the future based on the past. Every statistical reality is invisible until it isn't. This tournament only happened once and so we can't know if Nova was 7 points better than Michigan or if that initial conclusion was obscured by evidence we never got to see.

 

[Dove]

Thought this was kinda cute...

 

[Travelman6]

I don't understand, if that Donte kid is scoring 31 points, and in the games I saw him, was the best player on the court, why in the world is he NOT starting??

 

[Danzz]

I don't understand, if that Donte kid is scoring 31 points, and in the games I saw him, was the best player on the court, why in the world is he NOT starting??

It works well for Villanova so why change it.

 

[superjohn]

I don't understand, if that Donte kid is scoring 31 points, and in the games I saw him, was the best player on the court, why in the world is he NOT starting??

Because Wright has created a culture of embracing any role for the good of the team, no matter how good you are. He also gives them an instant huge boost of offense and playmaking when he comes in. Jay has created an absolute juggernaut over there.

 

[Travelman6]

BTW, Nova has had an odd 4 years...Of course, I would totally take that 4 year span if given to me for the next 4 years, nevermind the 2 second round exits.

2015 - 1 seed, gets beat by 8 seed in round 2
2016 - wins it all
2017 - 1 seed, gets beat by 8 seed in round 2
2018 - wins it all
2019 - totally going down to an 8 seed as a 1 next year, calling it here first! Lets see if Uconn gets an 8 and repeats 2014 when they took down 2 seed Nova in round 2. Ha, I kid. That would be a great year in 2019 if Uconn landed an 8 seed and had Nova as a possible 2nd round matchup though!

 

[8893]

Good summary points in today's NYT write-up:

"Beilein and his Villanova counterpart, Jay Wright, might not have imagined the way that offense would evolve when they first crossed paths, in tiny high school gyms in upstate New York in 1984 — Wright as a first-time assistant at the University of Rochester, Beilein a 41-year-old journeyman coach at Division II LeMoyne College. But they reached this pinnacle by largely ignoring the blue-chip prospects eager to rush through to the N.B.A. Instead, they brought the N.B.A. style to college.

Wright, in particular, loaded his lineup with talented shooters of all sizes, reminding scouts of a successful franchise at the next level: the Golden State Warriors. His team set an N.C.A.A. record for 3-pointers this season, and the Wildcats’ 18 baskets from beyond the arc in their win Saturday over Kansas were by far the most in a Final Four game.

'They present problems that most college teams can never present,' the ESPN analyst Fran Fraschilla said. 'The go-to guy on this team is the open man.'"

 

[BugsyCT]

BTW, Nova has had an odd 4 years...Of course, I would totally take that 4 year span if given to me for the next 4 years, nevermind the 2 second round exits.

2015 - 1 seed, gets beat by 8 seed in round 2
2016 - wins it all
2017 - 1 seed, gets beat by 8 seed in round 2
2018 - wins it all
2019 - totally going down to an 8 seed as a 1 next year, calling it here first! Lets see if Uconn gets an 8 and repeats 2014 when they took down 2 seed Nova in round 2. Ha, I kid. That would be a great year in 2019 if Uconn landed an 8 seed and had Nova as a possible 2nd round matchup though!

Remember they were also a 2 seed when Bazz lit them up in Buffalo 4 years ago.

 

[Travelman6]

Remember they were also a 2 seed when Bazz lit them up in Buffalo 4 years ago.

Yup. Even that 5 year span I would take in a heartbeat though. 3 heartbreaks for two rings. I think the year before they were "bleh", 8 or 9 seed. Still an amazing 6 years, which again, would take without thinking.