Maybe he would like to come to Uconn as a grad transfer???
UMichigan vs. Villanova
- Thread starter Bobol
- Start date
Maybe he would like to come to Uconn as a grad transfer???
- Joined
- Sep 16, 2011
- Messages
- 49,104
- Reaction Score
- 169,610
Yes but didn't matter, this was going to be a blowout no matter what.
intlzncster
i fart in your general direction
- Joined
- Aug 24, 2011
- Messages
- 29,091
- Reaction Score
- 60,482
Oh I know that. I was just saying, this team has no legit seniors. They could all come back if they wanted to. Would be the surest repeat in history. Amazing.
- Joined
- Dec 6, 2016
- Messages
- 4,092
- Reaction Score
- 9,905
Nova missed more 3s than normal too. So playing that game...
Any way, ugly final 4. All double digit wins, 2 of the 3 games were especially ugly lopsided affairs. Probably one of the worst in recent memory. Just by a competitive game stand point.
intlzncster
i fart in your general direction
- Joined
- Aug 24, 2011
- Messages
- 29,091
- Reaction Score
- 60,482
Yup. Dull as hell. Though you've got to appreciate Nova when you watch them.
UM got beat at their own game as well they dont belong in the same arena as Nova let alone the same court.
- Joined
- Aug 26, 2011
- Messages
- 7,844
- Reaction Score
- 15,376
Wow. No one saw that win coming! Very Chiefesque.
- Joined
- Dec 6, 2016
- Messages
- 4,092
- Reaction Score
- 9,905
Oh, Nova is good, scary good. What is more scary is I am not sure any of those players were especially heralded as freshmen which means they have a coach that could be setting up the school for a nice long run...
- Joined
- May 7, 2014
- Messages
- 14,591
- Reaction Score
- 30,490
Man Emmert looking gross as ever
Shooting "luck" is always underrated in game narratives. Missed 3s lead to transition opportunities the other way as a double whammy. Did Villanova play good D and force fairly tough 3s on top of Michigan being a mediocre shooting team? Yeah.
Nova shoulda hit one more 3 on average.
Is Villanova a better team? Yes. Should Michigan have been in single digits, maybe a 5 point game with 2 minutes left, something like that? Yes.
- Joined
- Sep 16, 2011
- Messages
- 49,104
- Reaction Score
- 169,610
You watched a different game than I did, Nova is better 1-7 everywhere except for Wagner. Nova is just lighyears ahead of them. If you watched those two teams and the talent disparity didn't jump at to you, I don't know what to say.
- Joined
- Feb 4, 2012
- Messages
- 15,371
- Reaction Score
- 16,767
since the big trees left, the weeds are left to flourish in the sun.
Every team looks amazing when the other team goes 3/23 from 3, that's the point. Villanova deserved to win. Michigan deserved to keep it closer.
- Joined
- Sep 16, 2011
- Messages
- 49,104
- Reaction Score
- 169,610
Again, we watched different games. They could play that game 5 more times and Nova wins big every time.
Purple Stein
I like to sim things.
- Joined
- Jul 9, 2017
- Messages
- 1,887
- Reaction Score
- 7,586
Somebody named Calhoun kept getting in the way.
Right you can't separate single game results from process or grasp expected results. Villanova had a good 3pt D on the year. Even if they held Michigan to their season D average instead of Michigan's 3pt O average, Michigan would have 12 more points and be within 5 barring fouls.
- Joined
- Sep 14, 2013
- Messages
- 1,175
- Reaction Score
- 2,450
Dude... just Stop!!!
- Joined
- Dec 13, 2012
- Messages
- 482
- Reaction Score
- 834
Not the win, the blowout win. I said it wouldn't be close.
- Joined
- Aug 26, 2011
- Messages
- 7,844
- Reaction Score
- 15,376
That wasn't exactly going out on a limb either.
- Joined
- Aug 26, 2011
- Messages
- 9,369
- Reaction Score
- 23,624
I watched basically every tournament game both of those teams played from the round of 32 on. The difference between those two teams is shot-making, I think it's really that simple. Michigan has guys that can spot up and hit shots, Nova has guys who can hit shots off the dribble, with a hand in their face, in semi-transition, coming off a screen, etc. Obviously 3 of 23 or whatever Michigan shot was something of an anomaly, but I don't think it's as simple as saying "if they shoot closer to their average..." as if these things exist in a vacuum. Not all looks are created equal. Based on the looks Michigan got tonight, I'd expect them to hit maybe 25-30% of those shots. They were all under duress, taken by guys who, save for Robinson, aren't natural shooters, in an environment they're not used to playing in.
Then there's the fallacy of the predetermined outcome. If Michigan hits a couple more shots early on, the rest of the game probably doesn't play out the same way. Better teams tend to demonstrate their superiority when they're threatened. If Villanova wanted to win that game by 30 you get the sense that they could have, but human nature is human nature and you're not as dialed in up 20 as you are down 4. So if you want to say Michigan "deserved" to lose by less, that's fine, but couldn't we make that argument irrespective of their shooting numbers? We could say the spread was seven, the most likely outcome is to lose by seven, therefore they deserve to lose by seven. And it would get us to about the same place as your analysis. Problem is, by the time you defy a trend, there's already a new one, and there's no way of knowing how the regression of that data - for instance, Michigan shot 21 of 32 from two, well above average - might directly confront the presence of other data. All we know based on that game is that Nova was 17 points better than Michigan.
I think there is a way to allow for some degree of variance while acknowledging that the games are not played in a laboratory. I knew the numbers, I saw the spread, I know I'm not beating Vegas...yet I still expected this result. And while this is the sort of sentimental bliss that usually makes sports fans look stupid, you're also never going to be able to handicap the future based on the past. Every statistical reality is invisible until it isn't. This tournament only happened once and so we can't know if Nova was 7 points better than Michigan or if that initial conclusion was obscured by evidence we never got to see.
- Joined
- Dec 6, 2016
- Messages
- 4,092
- Reaction Score
- 9,905
I don't understand, if that Donte kid is scoring 31 points, and in the games I saw him, was the best player on the court, why in the world is he NOT starting??